Higher or Lower? | Your Best DFS Advice for Week 1 | Texas Longhorns Football | Underdog

hey what's up folks welcome back to on Texas football I'm lifetime Longhorn Rod bab joined by one of my closest friends actually in the world he is my buddy uh Matt Butler he is a fantasy football Guru you can reach him via Twitter at Butler in Austin and this is the first official in aural uh fantasy football show our Underdog fantasy football show here on Owen Texas football and I brought in the best fantasy football mind I know to help me do it what's going on Matt how you doing brother doing pretty good man looking forward to football season starting up I know you and I we always talk football each week but it's actually here which it seems like Christmas because I always dread when the Super Bowl hits and it's like man we don't have football for eight months so it's glad to be back no doubt about it and of course we know the fantasy football realm is a lot of NFL discussion but college F fantasy football continues to grow so we're going to start the program off a little bit early we know uh NFL fantasy football starts up next week uh but this week of course college football kicks off and we want to get into a little uh college football in terms of the fantasy football realm we'll dive into that I know Longhorn fans are excited about it so first of all Matt for we'll get into of course our friends at Underdog because they are they've done something different than a lot of the other fantasy platforms that's why we're excited to be partnered with him but what does Underdog offer that's a little bit different that uh a lot of fans should be be interesting a little bit different than all the other uh platforms that makes it so unique in the Fantasy Football World well you know like when you hear fantasy football everybody plays fantasy football at home with your friends or you know your buddies you grew up with you got the snake draft where you just pick your favorite players and you pick comes back around to you you try to figure out who you got but then the fantasy landscape really evolved over the past decade and it really can't get overwhelming you know I play a ton of daily fantasy I do basketball NBA I do college football do NFL and there's a lot of math involved you know like in most sites where you go and play you have salaries there's a lot of roster spots and even though it's fantasy it's something that can get quite complicated and that's where I really like what Underdog's done because they' really simplified the process and it's sort of back to what you and your friends and anybody that's played fantasy football in a basic draft what they do so instead of having to figure out which players fit under the salary and who gives you the best dollar price per dollar everything along those lines instead they have these things just called drafts and you just go in and all it is is picking six players you got to select you a quarterback a running back two wide receivers a tight end and then a utility the utility is any of those skill guys that you go and what they do is six players enter the draft you have your six roster spots so we're talking instead of having to go and look at the whole universe of players like this Saturday I know the main slates they got 124 14 games that's a ton of research well on Underdog it's only nine games but the main thing is is the roster you're only filling out 36 spots so you really have to know like the elite guys at the top and then when you think about college what's cool about college you got some of these spreads it's not like the NFL where in the NFL you got some tight games uh touchdowns are tough to come by from time to time college man it is a wild west it is just scoring us growing up in Texas we've seen the spread proliferate and see scoring explode so you can get teams with 50 point totals and they're going to be tons of touchdowns so you also are going to have some teams projected to not score much so you don't have to really research those teams that are only projected to maybe get one touchdown on entire game you don't need that in your lineup you need the guys that are going to be good so it's a lot of the texases the Ohio States you know finding those matchups where you're expecting a lot of points and all you got to do is fill out your roster with all the names that you know in college it isn't pilfering through the bottom of depth charts now we'll get to why depth charts are important and things along those lines because there is some research and some time you want to put in to make sure you have a good shot at winning big money I know that this weekend on Underdog I'll be playing in the Battle Royale I've had a lot of drafts so far and it's paying out like 50k in prizes it's 5,000 up top and it's only five bucks to enter so if you're going to be watching college football it makes sense because the drafts they're done in like five minutes you 30 seconds per draft you go in you pick your quarterback your running back your two receivers your tight end and another player and boom you have a team five bucks you have a chance to turn it into five grand on the weekend so I really like the simplification of the process to where it makes it to where anybody can do it if you got kids I know you got a little one nowadays you don't nearly have as much time people are working but I mean this is literally something you can do if you get a breakout work or you got you know lunch or something you can sit there and eat and draft a team real quick no and that's actually true cuz I got the app right now I downloaded the app actually yesterday because I represent the the amateur here I mean I've done some fantasy things but in terms of what Underdog offers a lot of the daily fantasy options the higher lowers which we'll get to U it it does allow you to kind of uh just kind of dabble in it if you would like to dip the toe in if you want to if you want to go all in you can but that's kind of what I like about the underdog option so we'll get into some of the details and the strategy here for those who are amateur like me trust me it's Underdog is there the spot for you and if you are a obviously a renaissance man a conasur of the Fantasy Realm like my man Matt here it's also the place for you and we'll get into why that's the case but real quick get in the game our friends at Underdog fantasy the best place to play fantasy sports folks uh how does it work it is really really simple easy and simple you just download the underdog app as I've already done or you can go online and it takes almost no time at all as Matt mentioned it is really really time efficient and time effective you play uh you can play the pick them games um I can make my picks really quickly submit an entry less than 60 90 seconds sometimes it will take me or I can go deep diing go down a rabbit hole and make up to eight picks in one single entry uh it doesn't matter but either way I can win up to 325 times my money and that's what really matters when it comes to Underdog fantasy Underdog adds a ton of excitement to your sports Brewing experience no matter what sport it is because they offer uh fantasy uh for All Sports but of course we're talking about football here which is personal to me and I love it and that's the best part folks you can also watch your progress and update uh it real time and so you can see how well you're doing um hopefully that's you're doing well uh go to Underdog fantasy.com because right now they're offering a great uh a great promo right now use the promo code on Texas that's on Texas for a first deposit offer up to $11,000 in bonus cash and a free pick that's right plus a free pick there they also are offering an additional wide Travis Kelce free pick um they can take advantage of that up until the NFL kicks off and their NFL weekend kicks off so again Underdog fantasy.com use the promo code on Texas right now for a first deposit offer uh of up to $1,000 uh and you can get those two free picks actually if you count that Travis Kelce pick so with Underdog fantasy they're already hooking you up before you even uh participate in their uh great fantasy competition so Underdog fantasy our choice and be choice for daily fantasy all right Matt let's get right to it I want to dive into first of all you know what H how how the scoring system works let's dive into some of the logistics for the folks who may be unfamiliar and why it's why the strategy that you're going to deploy here works so well in Underdog specifically yep well everybody knows your standard scoring system these days with fantasy football it's uh every 10 yards you get a point so every yard is0 one for receiving and rushing you get your six points for a touchdown then if throwing the ball passing TDS are only worth four and then passing yards you get a point every 25 yards so then the only other thing added in on Underdog it's not PPR it's half PPR so every single reception somebody gets you get an additional half a point so that's like adding half a yard to or what would be I mean excuse me half a point would be five yards or say 12 and a half passing yards so every time you get a reception for a running back it's really worthy you know it's why you can end up having some of those offenses that you want to Target it helps not a full PPR so you don't have to focus solely on the passing game you still want to get volume a touches you want to accumulate yards but pass catchers are a way that you can add on an extra one it's something we were talking about befor hand a way that you always want to say correlate your lineups especially if you're playing in something like the Battle Royale where you have 11,000 people inside there you want to get your quarterback on his situation you want to have his receivers because the receiver outscores the running back on every or the quarterback on every single completion so if you go out there and you get a 10 yard completion you get a full point well that's just point four for the quarterback then you get the additional half a point for the reception so you're talking on that 10 yard completion your quarterback got point four but then you ended up getting one and a half for your receiver so it really works especially if you can find those areas where there's a high Target share like a guy like Horton when you have those High Target shares those are the guys that you really want to focus on on each team like I know that uh wide receiver going really high in drafts is rrao from Miami last year he had like a 29% Target share so finding those receivers that are going to get that high Target share that's something that's really decent priority but also those pass catching backs you know it's why sar's offense is sar's offense is it's why jadden blue right now if you looking average draft position Jayden blue is gonna go number one or two in all the drafts Quinn is going in the top three of all the drafts I got him at fifth overall in one of them but the average draft position last I saw for Quinn is 3.3 andon Jones for Virginia Tech is 3.6 so Quinn's the number one quarterback this weekend in the Battle Royale in the nine game slate and of of all the running backs Jayden blue his average draft position is two where quinon Judkins from Ohio State's at four Henderson's at 6.4 and Toton from Virginia Tech they're playing Vandy they're going to put up points they also run the ball a lot he's around 10 so right now everybody out there is going to be drafting Longhorns so if you're going to get the benefit of getting that top pick yeah I'd probably be picking in blue I haven't got blue yet in a lineup because I haven't been able to get a number one overall pick in the five's that fast I took so I've been packing that Texas passing game a lot but I'm G to be joining a couple more because I think Jayden blue is gonna have a big day that's what I love about fantasy football is the the correlation it really does kind of connect to actual real football so youbody saying passing game more valuable than a running game uh running backs who can catch out of the back field in addition to the running ability that's actually that's more valuable too and stay away from leagues and stay away from teams and even conferences where they where they run the football exclusively basically old big 10 stay other than Ohio State and Purdue you can ignore almost the whole old big thing and you can focus on man the Big 12 the pack 12's great like the SEC we grew up in was not good fun fantasy league nowadays sec's evolved you can see a lot of throwing like there's some good themes to Target the ACC ACC starting to act like it's the big 12 a lot more than it was back in the day but yeah you're right something mean no Iowa that's a big in fantasy that's a rule no Iowa and I I banned myself from PJ Fleck I don't I don't like him but yeah yeah let's get to the how you decide what games to Target you TR talked about the Personnel here and and why you Target certain players who are in certain schemes uh with certain football cultures how you decide what games that you're picking these players from particularly too well since we've been talking about passing and you like the passing because of the fact that you get the points for reception or a half a point on Underdog per reception the matchup of the defense at all yeah match up for the defense it does help a ton and that's something that you definitely can start uh searching into and finding like say the funnel defenses like Texas last year was a good funnel defense to the passing game whenever you face Texas their run defense was so good that I mean it's crazy if you look at EPA per play Texas last year when you just for strength according to uh collegefootball grass.com they were the ninth best pass defense per play on EPA but that's because you're factoring in down in distance scenarios but we don't matter about that all for fantasy you know there's volume if a team has a great run defense you aren't going to run into a brick wall which is going to funnel you to those passing game and you're gonna throw the ball a lot more strictly not necessarily because the pass defense sucks it could just be because the run defense is so good so that's one way that you can identify it but first off on the front end a big reason that the passing game is just so important is the amount of plays in a game if you're running the ball the clock's running and that's why your pace of play and pass rate really are connected so you want to be able to Quick you can quickly just Google you know pass play percentage and find the teams that throw the ball the most like on this slate coming up uh Colorado State out the nine team games they're the highest there 61.3% pass rate last year Maryland last year 57.3% but if you can get those game environments where both teams pass the ball you think about all those incompletions the clock St that means you fit more plays in you need more plays for your guys to be able to score more points if you're getting first downs and just running the ball on first second third and keeping that clock running that's why you end up seeing Minnesota at the bottom in Pace of play or you end up seeing teams you know the Big 10 as we talked about before ones that you traditionally want to avoid but your main focus that you brought up on the front end matters a ton and that's the defenses that you're facing because overall you want to find first off just the teams facing the bad defenses or a defense ranked worse than the offense you want to find plus scenarios so when I start breaking down each game I'll look at the pass rate and find the ones that are seconds per play and like say one that could be underrated this weekend both are on the upper half like Miami and Florida both throw the ball more than 50% and both rank in the top half in Pace per play that's a good environment Clemson Georgia surprising ly another one last year Clemson threw the ball 48.6% of the time Georgia at 47.7 it's about average a little bit above but Clemson was the third fastest team in the country and seconds per play you got Garrett Riley there Georgia was 59th so you can find those areas where you don't have a team ranked in the 100s like you know last year Penn State was a team that didn't throw the ball much 39% and seconds per play was like 120 yeah so like teams like that you sort of get a little fearful those are like tie Breakers but the main thing you want to focus on is finding first off those bad defenses because whenever you look at scores exploding and stuff it isn't necessarily because the offenses are great you can look and see a great offense when a great offense plays a great defense some of those old slobber knockers you would see with like uh Alabama and LSU it was because those defenses are so good that they can hold down a good offense but you can get a crappy team to go up against one of those teams ranked 120th and 130th and it turn you into what let Texas and Kansas was in 2021 but if a team gets a lead like say Ohio state gets way out in front or what we saw last night with Missouri they scor like 280 like this then it slows down because they maybe pull some starters they run some clock and even though they're playing a great team we still got a factor in if it's way too lopsided that's something to have some risking so you want to find those environments where not only is the bad defense but you want to get that back and forth aspect so it really can explode for those who may have heard us use the term because it comes up a lot who don't necessarily know the definition of stacking and why it's so important um and maybe I'm because I'm an amateur to this thing too folks so I'm coming in just like you guys uh is it basically just a way to exponentially uh compound your scoring in different ways right looking for way double and triple your scoring yeah and there's sort of two types of stacking in fantasy that we'll talk about well I just mentioned game Stacks if you can identify like maybe that one or two game that could have the blowout potential like the back in the day the best game stack you could ever Envision would have been momes versus Baker Mayfield like if you go you win all the money like if you just have that and stack it up you win all the money because like those games explode so finding those scenarios those things are big but it ALS Al is key in quarterback drafting like you want to correlate and your quarterback to your receivers now you can also correlate with your pass catchers and running backs because some have a high Target share so it isn't just to the receivers and to the to the tight ends but it also can correlate with the running backs it's just not as many offenses you got to know how the quarterback disperses now SAR sar's one where you can count them inside that group and the main point is the pass catcher is going to out score the quarterback on every play so if you're already drafting a quarterback that you like and you need your quarterback to hit his upside if he's not a running quarterback and you'll hear this term in a lot it's a fantasy term it'll probably make you smile but you can run your quarterbacks naked and naked means by themselves if they're a running quarterback you don't have to put them with your receivers you just have your quarterback but that's where drones by himself is a good play this weekend uh the freshman rayola in Nebraska I drafted him in one of my drafts I ended up having to go and take all my skill guys at the top and I needed a low quarterback I didn't have drones or Quinn in the Battle Royale so I knew that rayola is like when you start to look especially the way that these drafts work you see who else has drafted as you're drafting so the other five teams if they've all selected their quarterback already you don't have to pick that position wait till the last round because there's no Ross bench spot so you have to pay attention to what your opponents are doing while you are Drafting and once I noticed everybody else has already picked their quarterback I was like I don't need to rush I'm gonna pick that sixth I had picked tight ends sixth all the time up to that point because the tight ends are projected to score the least of all the players in the field this weekend so normally you're taking tight ends at sixth but you can also just look at the field that you're playing and when I was like okay well they're playing utl pass so going to get a ton of points it's a freshman even if it's a blowout he may stay out there only because he's a freshman to get reps and things along those lines so I was like I think it's worth taking the risk on him because he's a guy that can run and I didn't worry that I didn't have any Nebraska pass catchers they already a team with Matt rule are going to run the ball a lot so you can find those scenarios where you don't need to stack your quarterback but traditional quarterbacks that are throwing you want the pass catcher because not only are going to outscore him on a two and a half to one ratio in The Yards but they're going to get an additional half a point every reception so getting at least one pass catcher I had one team where I just loaded up on the Texas wide receivers and have if qu if jadden blue doesn't do well because I haven't been able to draft him yet my thinking on my Quinn team was well I need Jaden blue to not explode if he has a big game Quinn's probably not GNA have a big game but I'm drafting this specific team around the scenario that Quinn is having a big game therefore I just I went a little over aggressive and I took Bond eighth overall cook 20th overall and Silas Balden 29th overall Quinn goes like he did in the Oki State game and for 400 yards and four touchdowns then you're gonna be in the money and you get that straight correlation and can over jump because nobody else is probably going to have that combo so you kind of got into the players any other n nuggets or notes um about the players specifically because I actually and I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm a novice here I'm an amateur but I've been on the uh the underdog app a little bit and I got something I think for those amateurs out there who just want to dabble and it stick a toe into the Fantasy Realm um there's a really cool kind of uh I would say it's almost a cliff no version of a lot of this fantasy stuff that I want to get to but any other last nuggets for the people about the way you choose the players specifically yeah I understand at least just checking uh you know possible injuries you want to make sure your guys are playing that weekend uh it is sort of you know with these drafts we're ahead of time now the Big 10 when they get in conference actually does have injury reports you don't yeah sec we're in non-conference right now so we aren't even getting those necessarily yet so really sort of just keeping up to date like a few right down scenarios just to update people on it looks like Montrell Johnson for Florida who was originally thought to be out earlier this week it's starting to Trend as if he's gonna play and like last year whenever he was splitting time with etn in the back field they were I don't know around 30 fantasy points per game and if you look at like Montel Johnson he's over a yard per route run really good in his yards after contact Miss tackles Force it's starting to look like that could be a role where he could be a volume back and be a top in guy but earlier in the week like his draft position he was going 33rd overall but I out of the 36 players but now I got him arguably right there with Judkins and Henderson and like Roman henby he could be anywhere from your second to fifth best running back on the Slate and he wasn't even getting drafted because people didn't know he's playing looks like he's gonna play another one to be wary of uh Kirby Smart hasn't updated people on the situation yet but uh etn got DW or DUI over the off season his charges were dropped but there's a school rule supposedly that if you get arrested for DUI like the athletes are gonna have a suspension so people are assuming he's not going to play he wasn't on the dep chart but that doesn't necessarily mean anything you know like going into it but I'm not I'm expecting ATN to not play so that's another one so they're like Branson Robinson is a running back uh guy that yeah you haven't seen much play from him but he could have a decent workload because of the injury scenario uh wide receiver wise it doesn't look like there's much news regarding injury reports that you have to worry about but those running backs at least each week sometimes you can find really good spots if say you go into a week like Texas had had uh you know your full stable of running backs and they both go down this week in practice then you know the value that you would get in a guy like Jaden blue or something it would Sky poet in your draft so you got to make sure that you're following if somebody got injured or if during the week somebody gets injured because you might have a diamond in the rough that you can now draft because he's got gonna get starters volume something along those lines no that's great stuff and I want people to know I'm glad that Matt's kind of going through you know some of the big injuries for week one potentially are availability for week one of college football we want you guys to hit us up be Twitter I'm at Rod B Twitter vers my man Matt is at Butler in Austin uh and we want to try to tailor the show to you guys you guys have questions you can hit us up individually uh or you have uh ideas about how we could shape this show and moded a little bit to make it uh as informative and as educational as possible that's kind of what we're trying to do here and we want to make sure that you guys can you know take advantage of all of the uh the opportunities that Underdog is going to offer you guys and one of the things I really like I know we're getting close to getting to the end of it here I like the feature like I said I am an amateur in this all right I'm just dabbling I'm going to stick the toe in before I dive completely in I like the higher lowers and it's not as uh intricate uh maybe as sophisticated as the daily fantasy it's pretty simple uh they offer you a total uh for say Quin yours passing yards is at 284 and a half and you just got to pick what do you think he's gonna go higher than that number or lower than that number simple that's it that's all it is they give you two options and with Quinn they got two and a half passing touchdowns you can take the higher lover half rushing touchdown um with Jaden blue uh 94 and a half rushing yards you see higher lower that one oh actually that that see the thing about J blue is you know he could break one if he breaks a 50 some yarder then yeah he can get to that number pretty easily but then I think Starks going to try to bubble wrap the running backs a little bit something you got to consider and when do the running backs come out of the game when the lead is comfortable enough and but I will say Texas has a distinct advantage on the lines of scrimmage that Colorado State defensive front is undersized and inexperienced and they got a major injury I think at one of their Edge positions these are the things you consider I think Jaden blue could easily get there if he stays in the game long enough I just don't know if he's stay in the game long enough Matt to get yeah that's tough those scenario and that's sort of like I was talking about with last night that you saw with Missouri and Luther bir and and you know he had the touchdown right out the gate but he ended up with 36 yards in the touchdown so those scenarios especially when we're talking higher lowers that's where those environments targeting like say we talked about rrao earlier you know Florida had a bad defense Miami was one also that wasn't good stuff in the past so that was one where you could have the environment just add to the amount of pass plays that are going to be involved in the game so targeting say hires and those scenarios for them could be something that's worth focusing on uh with Texas and I honestly I was surprised to see Horton and his numbers being as low as they are now Texas could really focus on stopping Horton but if Horton gets four receptions I think he's going to go higher than that 67 and a half that I last saw with him so that's one U you know maybe since you're talking about the shark throwing the running backs and we know that Jayden blue really good if his receptions come out there as an option take a higher maybe on that if we're afraid of the volume maybe not getting you there necessarily for his total yards overall and then also some other ones that are worth looking at is situations where teams like I know that if you can see something for there's a guy Oli J JS even though Virginia Tech doesn't throw the ball much OE Jennings last year in the first game of the season he had transferred in he was actually at West Virginia a few years ago was at Old Dominion then transferred to Virginia Tech in the opening game he had like I think it was five for 72 in like two TDS and then first route the next week ended up getting injured was done for the rest of the season so he really isn't on many people's Radars but on a per snap basis like his yards per route run last year were over four yards per route run his Target Sharon targets per route run was 38.9% in that first game with drones and then if you look back at his time uh before Tren in Virginia Tech his Target share was up around 27% his yards per out run was over three yards right at 2.96 so if you see some Oly Jennings hires I like that as one that you can maybe throw in I like the drones running rushing yards or even rushing TDS especially if you say don't necessarily think a guy like Toton is going to stay in the game the whole time a guy like drones his being a quarterback his totals they aren't nearly as high so the highes in that scenario because you could see Vandy scoring a lot no that's good stuff it really is Madden a couple of the higher lows I like I mean they got Jaden blue a half of a half a touchdown receiving plus uh Russ in touchdown that's pretty good the Bert Auburn higher lower they got him with one and a half field goals made kind of like that one too that's not bad Jon cook he's at a half a touchdown i' take higher on that one so I think they got some good higher lowers there for the longhorn fans if you're interested in looking at some of your Longhorn players and how they may perform so check it out it's Underdog fantasy folks and really excited about the partnership with our friends at Underdog fantasy getting the game football season finally here and Underdog fantasy is the best place to play fantasy sports and it works uh really easy and it's really simple just download the underdog app like I have or go online and it takes almost no time at all it's really simple we just explained a lot of it but you can play their pick them and um I can make picks and so can you and no time at all take you 60 to 90 seconds to make those picks if you have the app or you can take your time go deep down the rabbit hole like my man Matt does a lot of the time dig even deeper make up to eight picks in one single entry win up to 325 times what your money that you invested so Underdog adds a ton of excitement to your Sports funing Experience especially for football which is personally why I'm a big fan and the best part is that you can watch her progress update in real time and right now they're offering you a hell of an offer go to Underdog fantasy.com use the promo code on Texas for a first deposit offer up to $11,000 in bonus Cash Plus a free pick they also have an additional sitewide Travis Kelce free pick that you'll be able to take advantage of up until next week's NFL uh kickoff gol and again Underdog fantasy.com use the promo code on Texas right now for a first deposit offer up to $1,000 and two free picks if you count the Travis Kelce free pick that's Underdog fantasy our choice and the choice for daily fantasy all right uh thank you Matt for the knowledge and the time man we're gonna do it again next week we be focusing on uh college and NFL next week because we start the NFL kickoff so I appreciate the knowledge and I'm gonna see how much uh how much winning I can do on this Underdog fantasy app because I'm G use all the info you just gave me because I was writing it down taking notes all right I'm GNA go pick my teams right now getting ready to do it and addition to my higher lowers and please guys out there listening and watching help us build this thing uh we're really excited about our partnership with Underdog fantasy and we're trying to make the show tailor made to you all right we want to give you as much information as much education as we can so you can win as much as possible that's the whole point here in Matt any last words for the people brother before we end this thing I think it's worth mentioning if we're talking higher lowers the way that they're geared in the numbers statistically the lowers are the ones that you want to try to identify they the public goes after the highers but you're going to go and if you just look at what the numbers and what people say right now I'm looking at some of the best uh options for the day and across WNBA to college football inside the top 10 I found one Higher and nine were lower so you also may want to gear your mind if you're trying to win the most now you can find the ones where they got it wrong because the books don't always get it right and these fantasy sites they don't always get it right but at least if you're looking higher lowers statistically speaking the lowers pay out I like that see there you go you only GNA find nuggets and info like that for my man Matt Butler Butler in Austin that's how you find in the terse and trust me you won't find a better fantasy mind out there thank you Matt for the time we appreciate all the knowledge thank you guys out there for watching and for listening thank you to our friends over at Underdog fantasy thank you to Matt behind the scenes or Matthew Hudson behind the scenes because he works hard for us he's the real MVP and until next time next week we'll be talking College fantasy we'll be talking NFL as well for our friends at Underdog and on Texas hookham horns