MLB Betting Picks and Game Previews – Yankees vs Orioles, Nationals vs Marlins, Cardinals vs Tigers

hey there everyone Drew goldar from dg.com we got a lot of baseball to talk about today if you want to see the full version of this video head on over to dg.com and begin your free 7-Day trial but let's get right into it with the first of today's games now not every game is going to have plus cev and one of those examples is Baltimore hosting the New York Yankees the O's minus 118 the Yankees right at that even money Mark plus 100 to get the win today the Yanks 19- 10 on the season the Orioles 17 and 10 on the year uh they've basically both won six of their last 10 games so very similar and basically capacity the Run differential very comparable as well especially when you factor in the fact that Baltimore has played two fewer games than New York although the Yanks do have the third best run differential in all of Major League Baseball now the simulations from ESPN analytics say that the Orioles should win this game 52% of a time basically close to very close to tossup potential Yankees at 48% uh odds to win this one uh versus plus 100 with implied odds of 50% so there isn't plus EV on either side of things but this pitching match up is really interesting Clark Schmidt going up against Grayson Rodriguez Schmidt's ER is one full run better than Rodriguez so far this season they are combined five and one on the year so far uh they've each pitched into the mid 20 total Innings at this point their strikeout numbers huge both of them averaging more than one strikeout per inning of work so prop bet wise you could be looking at a strikeout prop for either of these teams although obviously they're going up against the O's and the Yankees so uh it's a bit tricky when you do that you can basically back both pitchers off and combine them into a same game parlay uh if you want to buy yourself a one or two strikeouts worth of insurance per pitcher and still get a pretty close to even money payout uh otherwise the Yankees at plus 100 are always going to be intriguing the Orioles at home at minus 118 uh they are always a good bet at home as well but I think the value on this side has to be the Yankees but they're still is not a plus EV play in this game there is plus EV in our second game that we're going to feature here with which is the Nationals and the Marlins Washington Plus 116 money Line Odds to pick up the win in this one Miami minus 136 now if we take a look at this pitching matchup you're talking about Jake irvan and Trevor Rogers uh neither of whom have had great starts to the season at this point uh they're neither is averaging a strikeout per inning their eras are both north of four which is not great and they're combined one and five on the season Rogers is 0 and3 in his decisions so far and has issued nine walks uh on the season still ESPN analytics says Miami has plus EV and by a decent little margin because they say that the Marlin should win this match up 59% of the time and that's 41 the implied odds of Miami at minus 136 is 57. 63% so uh as long as that bet at minus 136 hits 58% of the time you're making money in the long run ESPN analytics says it should hit 59% of the time now the Marlins are on a six game losing streak uh and the Nationals have won three straight and they're one game below 500 whereas Miami is 17 games below 500 it has been a disastrous start to the year for the Miami Marlins they're 2-4 playing at home this season they are 4-9 on the road so uh that is some struggles for them all year long uh they have the third worst run differential in Major League Baseball so ESPN analytics says Miami has plus EV looking at some of the numbers and not taking the simulation into account and all that stuff I actually think Washington has better odds better value there they're basically a 500 team this season they're on a three-game win streak they're paying out at above even money and they're going up against uh what has been one of the worst teams in baseball this year uh inju is big part of that but uh Trevor Rogers not off to a great start so if Rogers is not going to bounce back and cut that ER in a half with his start today I think Washington at plus 116 is where the value is we're close to plus EV on this game as to Detroit hosts the St Louis Cardinals this is Aus 108 pick them minus 108 on either side of today's money line ESPN analytics says the Tigers should win this one 51.3% of the time implied odds here 51.9% regardless of which side you wage dra on so no value on the St Louis side maybe some value on the Detroit side of things and as we dig a little bit deeper looking at Steven mattz and Kenta MAA both of whom have eras north of five so we're talking about Washington and Miami's pitching match up this one even worse you could be looking at an over uh at 8 and 1 half runs Detroit though a winning record on the season they've won six of their last 10 while the cards have lost six of their last 10 The Run differentials here basically Detroit is about a wash on the year they plus three St Louis A minus 23 through 28 games played so they average getting out scored by one run per game so uh the tiger side of the money line has a bit of value I do like the over because of the starting pitching you could look at a first five innings or first three Innings if you go over to DraftKings over uh on total runs to see if you can bet on uh basically the first time through each lineup that we get a couple of runs scoring uh on that because we got a total line of eight and a half runs so uh that is how I would look at it there's technically no plus EV in this situation but Detroit is at home they're 16- 12 overall they are only 6 and8 at home St Louis 500 team on the road but uh the Tigers have been the better team thus far this season that is how I would lean in a game like this and not just because I'm wearing the Detroit star shirt if you enjoy those breakdowns you're going to want to head over to DGP pi.com and begin your free trial for seven days because we broke down six a half dozen Major League Baseball games today we'll also be talking about the NHL playoffs and Major League Baseball throughout the week throughout the month throughout the year dgs.com also available at patreon.com Drew Goldfarb let me know your picks in the comments below and what you want to see more of here uh on social media on dg.com what is it that you're interested in eding at because uh that's what I want to help you with let me know