Steve Kornacki lays out the path to 270 electoral votes for the post-Labor Day sprint to November

-- STEVE KORNACKI AT THE BIG BOARD. >> Reporter: YAMICHE, A COUPLE OF WAYS TO LOOK AT THIS. THIS IS THE AVERAGE OF THE POLLS. WE SEE KAMALA HARRIS WITH AN ADVANTAGE OVER FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP. A COUPLE OF WAYS YOU CAN LOOK AT THIS. IF YOU ARE A DEMOCRAT, YOU ARE HAPPY HARRIS IS AHEAD OF TRUMP. YOU ARE ALSO HAPPY THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT OF WHERE THE RACE WAS WITH PRESIDENT BIDEN. HE'S BASICALLY BEEN TRAILING FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP ALL YEAR IN THE POLLS. IF YOU ARE A REPUBLICAN, YOU ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN DESPAIR. YOU CAN PROBABLY TAKE SOME SOLACE IN THEM. DONALD TRUMP IS NO STRANGER TO BEING IN THIS POSITION DURING LABOR DAY. THIS TIME, IT'S BETTER FOR HIM THAN THE LAST TIME HE RAN. THIS TIME LAST TIME, HE WAS DOWN BY FIVE POINTS TO HILLARY CLINTON. HE DIDN'T WIN IN 2020, BUT OF COURSE, IT WAS VERY, VERY CLOSE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. THAT'S ONE OF THE KEYS HERE. DOES TROMSO HAVE THAT ADVANTAGE? BECAUSE OF THE KEY DEMOCRATIC DISTRIBUTION. LOSING THE POPULAR VOTE BY 2, 3, 4 POINTS. SOMETHING LIKE THAT. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE ROAD TO 270. THERE'S A LOT BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY. THESE ARE THE CORE BATTLEGROUND STATES. SIX OF THEM WERE BLUE STATES IN 2020 THAT ONE FOR JOE BIDEN. ONE OF THEM WAS READ IN 2020, NORTH CAROLINA. IN THE OTHER STATES, THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO HOLD ON TO WHAT THEY ALREADY CARRIED IN 2016. IN TERMS OF THE POLLING AT THE STATE LEVEL, IT IS PRETTY CLOSE RIGHT NOW. KAMALA HARRIS SEEMS TO BE DOING A TICK BETTER IN THE THREE, LET'S CALL THEM GREAT LAKES STAKES. -- AND PENNSYLVANIA. THAT'S PROBABLY THE MOST DIRECT PATH FOR HARRIS. IF SHE WERE TO HOLD THOSE THREE STATES, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, AND PENNSYLVANIA, THERE YOU GO. SHE'S GOT EXACTLY 270 ELECTORAL VOTES. THIS WOULD ALSO REQUIRE HER TO HANG ON TO BE ONE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT AROUND OMAHA, NEBRASKA. IT'S A DISTRICT VERY SUBURBAN. A LOT OF DEMOGRAPHICS THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORING DEMOCRATS. THAT WOULD BE 270 ELECTORAL VOTES. WHERE IT GETS DICEY FOR HARRIS, IT'S BETTER, AND IT WAS A TICK BETTER FOR BIDEN WHEN HE WAS RUNNING, TOO. ESPECIALLY WITH MICHIGAN, TOO. WE SAW SOME OF THE BIGGEST POLLING MISSES IN 2020. THESE STATES ARE DEMOGRAPHICALLY SIMILAR. LARGE, BLUE-COLLAR WHITE POPULATION. ARE THEY ABLE TO REACH NECESSARILY ALL OF THE SAMPLE OF THE TRUMP SUPPORTERS FROM THAT DEMOGRAPHIC IN THAT STATE. IT GETS TRICKY HERE, ESPECIALLY IF YOU WERE TO LOSE PENNSYLVANIA. IF HARRIS WERE TO LOSE PENNSYLVANIA, THAT'S THE BIGGEST ONE. IT HAS 19 ELECTORAL VOTES. TO COMPENSATE, SHE WILL HAVE TO WIN TWO OF THESE STATES FROM THE SUNBELT. AND IF TRUMP GETS PENNSYLVANIA, IT WOULD LOOK LIKE THIS. HANG ON NORTH CAROLINA, WHICH HE ALREADY WON IN 2020. AND THEN GO TO GEORGIA. MARGIN IN GEORGIA IN 2020 WITH ABOUT 12,000 VOTES. THE POLLING FOR TRUMP, WHEN YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THESE DIFFERENT BATTLEGROUND DATES, IT TENDS TO BE THE CLOSEST FOR HIM. IN ORDER TO DO THAT, PENNSYLVANIA, NORTH CAROLINA, GET GEORGIA. AND THERE YOU SEE IT. EXACTLY 270 ELECTORAL VOTES. THAT'S PROBABLY THE MOST EFFICIENT PATH FOR EACH CANDIDATE TO GET TO 270. THE GOOD NEWS, WE'VE GOT MORE THAN 60 DAYS TO GO THROUGH ALL THOSE POSSIBILITIES. WE ARE JUST HITTING STARTED. >> THANK YOU SO MUCH. LET'S BRING IN MORE OF OUR NBC NEWS COLLEAGUES. ON THE REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM BUS TOUR, KELLY O'DONNELL HAS MORE. GARRETT HAAKE IS FOLLOWING THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN. I WANT TO START WITH YOU. FLORIDA IS NO LONGER A SWING STATE WHEN IT COMES TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. SO WHY ARE THEY HAVING A BUS TOUR IN THAT STATE RIGHT NOW? >> HEY, YAMICHE. IT MAY LOOK LIKE I'M STANDING BESIDE A REGULAR BUILDING. REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM WRITTEN IN THE LARGEST OF LETTERS OUTSIDE OF THIS BED -- BUILDING EARLIER TODAY. IT IS NOT COINCIDENCE THAT THEY CHOSE FLORIDA FOR THE FIRST TWO STOPS OF THIS. SPECIFICALLY HERE, WE ARE ONLY 10 MILES AWAY FROM MAR-A-LAGO. OF COURSE, THAT IS FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S HOME. THERE ARE COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THAT. ONE OF THEM BEING WE HAVE AMENDMENT FOUR ON THE BALLOT. THERE ARE STATES THAT ALREADY HAVE ABORTION RIGHTS ON THE BALLOT. WE HAD A 15 WEEK ABORTION BAN THAT WAS OVERTURNED TO THE CURRENT ABORTION BAN. IN MAY, THAT AMENDMENT FOUR WOULD BE ON THE BALLOT. SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN? IF 60% OF FLORIDA VOTERS DECIDE TO PASS THIS, THEN IT'S ON SALE, QUOTE, LIABILITY. ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THEY STRESS COMING HERE, WHICH OF COURSE, AS WE KNOW, IT'S A BIG PART OF THE CAMPAIGN HERE FOR 2024. THE OTHER PART THAT I THOUGHT WAS INTERESTING, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CAMPAIGN KEY BATTLEGROUND STRAIGHT -- STATES, THEY STILL CHOSE TO BE HERE PARTIALLY TO SHOW THAT THEY ARE CONFIDENT. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT I ASKED THE SENATOR ABOUT EARLIER TODAY. I WANT TO SHOW YOU JUST A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT WE HEARD. >> THE DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS GALVANIZED BY THIS, JUST AS IN KANSAS, WISCONSIN, OHIO, ALASK . IT REALLY BRINGS PEOPLE TOGETHER. THIS IS REALLY A GREAT PLACE TO BEGIN THIS BUS TOUR. YOU HAVE THINGS LIKE AN AMENDMENT MEASURE LIKE THIS ON THE BALLOT. THAT REALLY TURNS PEOPLE OUT TO VOTE. PARTICULARLY WOMEN WHO THINK, I'M JUST NOT GOING TO STAND FOR THIS ANYMORE. >> AND I WILL ADD THIS, YAMICHE. THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN TELLS ME THAT FLORIDA SAW THE, QUOTE, LARGEST SURGE OF VOLUNTEERS SIGNING UP AFTER HARRIS ANNOUNCED SHE WOULD BE THROWING HER HAT IN THE RING FOR NOVEMBER. THIS WAS A BIG PART FOR THEM TO KICK OFF THE CAMPAIGN HERE. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN THE DEMOCRATIC EROSION IN PREVIOUS CYCLES, YAMICHE. >> GREAT REPORTING. KELLY, AS WE HEARD JUST NOW, LEADING TO ONE OF THEIR STRENGTHS, TALKING ABORTION AND REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM, GETTING TO THE CAMPAIGN OVERALL, HOW DOES IT DRIVE YOU WHEN IT COMES TO THE ECONOMY? >> Reporter: THEY ARE FOCUSING ON LABOR AND ON WORKING AMERICANS. THEY WANT TO REALLY STRESS THAT THEY BELIEVE KAMALA HARRIS HAS A PLAN TO LOWER COSTS. SHE'S TALKED ABOUT THAT. TALKING ABOUT PRICE GOUGING, WHICH GETS SOME PUSHBACK IN REACTION ON HOW EFFECTIVE A POLICY THAT WOULD BE. THEY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT SHE IS VERY AWARE THAT COSTS FOR AMERICANS ARE AMONG THE TOP PRIORITIES. BEING WITH PRESIDENT BIDEN ON THE TRAIL, WHICH WE WILL SEE AGAIN IN SOME KEY PLACES. THAT'S WHERE THEY WANT TO SHOW THAT THE VICE PRESIDENT IS ABLE TO FOCUS ON THIS ISSUE AND TRY TO CONNECT. SHE TALKS ABOUT HER OWN MIDDLE CLASS BACKGROUND. SO THEY RECOGNIZE THAT SPEAKING THE LANGUAGE OF FAMILIES WHO WORRY ABOUT GROCERY BILLS, WHO WORRY ABOUT MAKING THEIR BUDGET STRETCH, THAT THAT IS A WAY TO CONNECT. ALSO AS MARISSA WAS SAYING, JUST DEALING WITH THE ISSUE OF REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM. BUT THE ECONOMY HAS LONG BEEN A DRIVING FORCE FOR VOTERS. YAMICHE? SPENT WHILE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE WAY THEY ARE TRYING TO CONNECT WITH VOTERS, WE HEARD VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS CALL HERSELF THE, QUOTE, UNDERDOG. IS THE MESSAGE WE'VE HEARD OVERALL. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CAMPAIGN IS COUNTING ITS ADVANTAGES. WHY DO WE FEEL THAT MESSAGE OF CALLING THEM THEMSELVES THE UNDERDOG IS A WINNING MESSAGE? >> FOCUSING ON ACTIVATING -- WILL EITHER SPARK SOMETHING NEW WITH THEM, ARE ISSUES LIKE REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM, THE ECONOMY, OR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPAIGNS. THEY ARE CONCERNED THAT IN STATES, THERE WILL BE A NARROW MARGIN. AND THEY ACCEPT THAT. THOSE WHO STAY HOME COULD BE DECISIVE. THEY WANT TO PORTRAY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE STRONG SHOWING, STRONG SUPPORT, STRONG FUNDRAISING, THAT IT WILL TAKE GRINDING OUT A WEEK BY WEEK IN THE REMAINING NINE WEEKS TO GUARANTEE THAT THEY CAN DO AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE TO DRIVE UP THEIR VOTERS. PERHAPS HAD BEEN TRUMP VOTERS AT SOME POINT, NIKKI HALEY VOTERS. SO THEY THINK THAT IS SOMETHING THAT PUTS HER IN A GOOD POSITION TO CONNECT WITH VOTERS WHO WANT TO FEEL LIKE THEY ARE BEING ASKED TO PARTICIPATE. YAMICHE? >> I THOUGHT, OH MY GOSH. IT REALLY IS NINE WEEKS. WE WILL SEE THE FIRST DEBATE BETWEEN TRUMP AND HARRIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BACK AND FORTH ON THE RULES OF THE DEBATE. WHERE DO THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW? >> THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE RULES WILL BE A LOT LIKE THEY WERE FOR THE CNN DEBATE, JUNE 27th, WHICH IS PRESUMED TO BE VERY PIVOTAL. AND EFFECT ONLY FORCING PRESIDENT BIDEN TO -- THEY CAN'T HAVE NOTES. EXPECTING THE MICROPHONE TO BE MUTED WHEN THE OTHER PERSON IS NOT SPEAKING. YOU WILL NOT HAVE THE FREE-FOR ALL THAT WE'VE SEEN IN PAST DEBATES. CERTAINLY FOR KAMALA HARRIS, A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE FOR -- THAN BIDEN. AT THIS POINT, WE DON'T HAVE AN INDICATION THAT IT WILL GO HER WAY ON THAT. MEETING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN PERSON WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTABLE IN AND OF ITSELF. >> IT CERTAINLY WILL. THANK YOU SO MUCH, KELLY O'DONNELL FROM THE WHITE HOUSE. AND GARY, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE UPSET WITH ME. FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN OFF THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IS THERE A SENSE OF URGENCY? >> NOT THAT I CAN TELL. IT'S SORT OF STRIKING. WE ARE EXPECTING TO BE OUT OF THE TROUBLE, BUT WE ARE NOT RELEASING THEM FROM THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN. I KEEP BEING TOLD BY TRUMP SOURCES THEY WILL INCREASE THE PACE, YOU WILL BE ON THE TRAIL MORE, WE WILL SEE MORE AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGNING. BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT FROM TRUMP. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A FUNCTIONAL -- THAT HEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. IT'S POSSIBLE THE CAMPAIGN WAS TO USE THE DEBATE AS A PIVOTAL POINT. THEY SAID FOR A LONG TIME THAT KAMALA HARRIS WAS HAVING A HONEYMOON IN THE POLLING. >> YEAH. AS YOU BRING UP THE DEBATE, HOW HAS FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP SORT OF PREPARED? HE'S BEEN SAYING THAT FOR YEARS. >> THERE IS NOBODY DRESSED AS DONALD TRUMP AT THE PODIUM. NOBODY DRESSED LIKE KAMALA HARRIS THAT WILL DO THIS TRADITIONAL BACK-AND-FORTH. WHAT DONALD TRUMP DOES DO, HE'S ALWAYS ON THE PHONE WITH PEOPLE, BOUNCING IDEAS OFF PEOPLE. FIELD TESTING ATTACK LINES WITH MAR-A-LAGO MEMBERS, STAFF MEMBERS. THOSE WHO FAMOUSLY GOT UNDER KAMALA HARRIS' SKIN A LITTLE BIT. IT'S BEEN EXTREMELY HELPFUL WITH THE FORMER PRESIDENT IN FIGURING OUT HOW TO PIVOT, HOW TO GO BEYOND THAT. USE THAT, AND THEN TALK ABOUT WHAT YOUR ADMINISTRATION DID. BUT I WILL SAY TRUMP, AS WE KNOW, HE HAS A VERY HIGH OPINION OF HIS OWN OPINION AS A DEBATER. HE'S NOT PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN ADVICE. HE WANTS TO DO WHAT HE DOES WILL , BETTER, IF THAT MAKES SENSE. >> IT STRIKING, BUT NOT SURPRISING, IN SOME SENSE. DO YOU THINK HE'S WINNING AFTER PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS DROPPED OUT? >> IT'S TOUGH TO SAY. HE STILL SAYS HE'S WINNING. HE WAS ASKED ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WHAT DO YOU DO IF IT'S A CLOSE WIN? OR CLOSE RACE? HE SAYS, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE CLOSE. WE ARE GOING TO WIN IN A BLOWOUT. HE SEEMS A LITTLE BIT MORE DISORGANIZED. WE ARE HEARING A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THAT. SOME FRICTION. WE'VE SEEN HIM PUBLICLY PUSHING BACK THIS IS A THING THAT HE DOESN'T DO WHEN HE'S WINNING. THAT'S A LONG WAY OF SAYING THAT IT'S PUBLIC PERCEPTION. I KNOW HE'S COMFORTABLY AHEAD. WE KNOW HE IS AN AVID POLL READER, POLL CONSUMER. WHETHER HE BELIEVES OR NOT, I