TRADE These Fantasy Football Busts | 10 Players to Sell High

Introduction Hello everybody welcome into the fantasy pros Dynasty football podcast I'm Ryan warmley joined as always by Scott Bogman and Pat Fitz Morris fellas we have a little bit of a shorter show possibly we'll see we're only talking about 10 names today we're talking about guys that we are selling high on in Dynasty right now and these can kind of hit on a couple different positions we've got you know some running backs some wide receivers some quarterbacks we might even throw a tight end in there as well um so guys that we think are overvalued right now and that you should be looking to sell in Dynasty before the season kicks off quick reminder for everyone all of our 2024 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings you can also navigate to our staff dynasty rankings on the site as well and a quick reminder for everyone to get ready for the ultimate fantasy football showdown with the fifth annual fantasy pros Fantasy Fest join us live on our YouTube channel Monday August 19th starting at 3m. Eastern or 12:00 p.m. Pacific for a 5our fantasy football Extravaganza like no other we've got a star studded lineup of familiar faces and the best fantasy experts from all around the industry coming together to bring you the latest and greatest insights to help you dominate your draft we've got player rankings breakouts sleepers busts and so much more with Jake cely JB Eisenberg Scott panowski and others but here's the best part you can be a part of the action join the live conversation and ask your burning questions can't make it live no worries you can catch all the excitement later on your own time but trust us you won't want to miss the live show so mark your calendars and set those reminders because the fantasy pros Fantasy Fest is happening exclusively on our YouTube channel we're going to have some of the best experts in the industry on that and also fits so it'll be super fun and I hope everybody Tunes in and uh and has a good time with us on Monday like I said all right let's jump into we'll start with the running backs here overvalued running backs Bogman who's your first guy and by the way to pull back the curtain you said before you said any other name you said if I don't get this guy I'm not doing the show yeah I mean it's DeAndre Swift and you know it's probably a broken record at this point but I don't know how you couldn't sell D’Andre Swift high on this guy if someone is buying him at his hype right now I am all over it and this is to me just the ultimate sell High time for this guy because he's in a new situation you know they paid him so it seems like he's going to be uh a Workhorse for how much they gave him he's been making great plays in training camp he had like the one catch for over 40 yards in the preseason game and the hype is enormous for this guy right now he's coming off a great year in Philly I thought it was an awesome year in Philly but I give that credit and if you've listened to me talk about DeAndre Swift you've listened to Fitz talk about DeAndre Swift a lot of us are giving most of the credit for DeAndre Swift's huge season in 2023 to the Philly offensive line look he had to do it but it's easier to run through wide open holes and um he didn't really do it in Detroit he was a beback at best there he's had one good season of really big production there's a lot of hype he just got paid this offense looks really exciting with Caleb Williams running it now and the additions of Roma dun and Keenan Allen and just everything is super hyped up for the Bears now so especially if you have a bunch of Bears fans in your league I think selling DeAndre Swift right now is you're going to get the most for him because I don't think he's going to have a great year I think he's going to perform below his draft position and Below where people have him valued and I think this is maybe the last vestage of being able to sell high on a guy like DeAndre Swift I could not agree more um for me it's not should you sell DeAndre Swift it's how low of a package do you need to be willing to move him Fitz I'm curious where you're you're coming from on this yeah and even in that one big season bog if I recall he had like a couple of 12 and 13 C CCH games because the lions were just getting trucked so bad and they were just dumping off and and trying to play catchup um yeah I mean he has had the two teams basically uh reject him seeing what he had to offer and saying no thanks uh you you can move on to the next team and now in the first Bears preseason game actually second there was the Hall of Fame game where they didn't play anyone but um in the first preseason game where they played some of their regulars it was some really curious usage for DeAndre Swift like he played the first play then they took him out I think on the second play and put in khil Herbert then he comes back in and has that 42 yard screen pass um then they on their first third down put Travis Homer in the game um and then like DeAndre Swift still continued to play after Homer had been in the game and a third down now that is alarming because if DeAndre Swift is not playing on passing Downs and Travis Homer does have a history um with Shane Waldren in Seattle so like that's a little alarming because he's probably going to be splitting some early down work with khil Herbert and maybe Roshan Johnson too but if if DeAndre Swift does not own the passing Downs uh the ceiling here might be much lower than people are anticipating so yeah I'm kind of with you I don't have much interest in DeAndre Swift and it probably is a good time to swh he's still got like a a top 25 Dynasty ADP at running back maybe even top 20 so what is the return Bogman that it would if you get this whether it's a pick or a a type of player younger player who's the guy that like okay yeah I will move him happily serviceable wide receiver I mean there's usually people looking for running backs right so a serviceable wide receiver I don't want to give you a range because I really don't want to limit you right like there might be someone that offers you something ridiculous and you feel like you need to take it and pull the trigger on that immediately um but I would accept like a second round pick I think uh especially if I'm like in season uh trying to trade DeAndre Swift and he's playing well uh early get rid of him then even he could get even more than he could right now because right now it's all just hype a couple good games then people are going to get excited but I'm with Fitz like the usage is weird um and I just think you know not everything not every trade in Dynasty has to be an absolute home run we're just looking to sell guys at their Peak I think he's absolutely at his Peak right now I think I'd even do like a future second like a 2026 second I'd be pretty on board with honestly um so we're all in very clear agreement on on Swift uh hopefully we have some disagreement throughout the show uh Fitz who's the first running back you want to talk about Kiren Williams and I do think he is probably at the height of his Kyren Williams value right now I think kirn Williams is good but I do worry about the sustainability of his business model as a smaller back who had this heavy duty rooll last year and and I don't know if it's going to be a heavy duty roll this year more on that in a second but um so Kiron is listed at at 59 and 202 pounds and I'm not sure I'm buying the 2002 pounds I think his listing was 194 pounds last year and I I'm not sure if he is hitting two bills on the scale just yet um but last year we averaged about 21 touches a game for the Rams not surprisingly he did not hold up over the entire season he missed four games with a high ankle sprain um and that was after missing time with a high ankle Sprint as a rookie and I think in his very first otaa shortly after being drafted he had broken his foot in training camp so there are some durability concerns um and I just I think his Workhorse role last season was kind of out of necessity there just wasn't much else for the Rams at running back now that go out and spend a day two pick on Blake corm of Michigan who for my money um you know and cavy out here bogs we didn't get quite a full one season of Jonathan Brooks in college but for my money like Blake km is the best peer runner in this rookie running back class and yeah between the tackles I'll give that to you yeah I mean like he is very good and so now there is another viable option here I I Shawn McVey is really smart dude and I I can't imagine that McVey would continue to give Kiron Williams 20 touches a game or more after going out and and you know having his team draft a day two running back I would imagine he would want to parcel out the uh carries and and touches a little more judiciously this year to to spare Kiren all that wear and tear so I think it's going to be a little bit more of a committee I mean maybe km's just a change of pace guy but I I don't think is going to average 21 touches a game again so um and it it's entirely possible at some point like Blake corm passes up kyone Williams because uh you know the the draft cap I'm not a you know totally like indentured to draft Capital here but Blake corm was drafted earlier than Kiren Williams was and is probably the better Prospect coming out of college than Kiren Williams was not taking away from what Kiren did last year he was awesome I know he got trophies for a lot of people in fantasy but uh I I think we are hitting Peak bubble on Kiren Williams Dynasty value Bogman I'm curious how you feel because you weren't as bullish on Korum as Fitz was and that is like a lot of the reason maybe more of a redraft thought but that some people are you know less high on Kiren um I'm I'm not sure you are obviously also somebody though who likes to play to win now and short-term windows and kir would seem a little bit more heing in that strategy so overall do you see Kiren as a sell high or or more of a hold no I think he is a sell high and I I do like him for this season so if I'm looking at my team and I'm you know I'm in the window I'm probably not selling him but that doesn't mean that it's not the right time to sell high on Kiren Williams if my team is middling I'm absolutely selling high on Kiren Williams and not only the stuff that that Fitz just said about him being smaller they drafted another guy he has uh you know already an injury history in the NFL he produced very well last season but it's because of this Rams offense in the way it works it goes everything runs through Matt Stafford yes they're going to run the ball a bunch they are but because Matt Stafford is so good because you have weapons like cup and Thea kyen Williams faced 4.8% stack boxes last season I mean it was the lowest percentage in the league by a lot so you know we just talked about how DeAndre Swift took it Vantage of massive holes that the filio line gave for him I mean kir doesn't have to break tackles in the back field hardly ever because he's working through these big holes because he's not facing sack boxes I don't think anything really changes that this season and I do think he's still way ahead of km in you know just NFL uh NFL Level Playing and knowing the Playbook and all that stuff so they're going to trust him way more es especially early but next season like Fitz said I think km is better Prospect I think he's overall a better running back than kirn so they could be fighting for for carries as as early as late this year or early next year so this is absolutely the right time to sell high on Kiren Fitz are you looking to sell Kiren kind of like regardless or if you are a win now team are you comfortable hanging on to him yeah I mean if I were a win now team that didn't have much else at running back I mean I like I still I'm not trying to be totally disrespectful because I do believe I have him ranked inside running back one range in Dynasty but um you know if someone was going to if I didn't have the look of a uh heavy favorite to be one of the Su uh title game teams in my league and someone wanted to just give me Z flower straight up for kairen I would take it and I would probably take a a 20 25 first round pick for Kiren straight up okay but who's your next overvalued running back I'm going to say Zach moss and like I said before we don't have to hit absolute homers you Zack Moss don't have to you know sell uh all your high players because your team is bad and you you're looking for stuff if you're rostering Zach Moss he is a valuable commodity in fantasy right now especially in Dynasty so you know the opportunity is there and he had the huge season last huge season I mean the best season he's had in the NFL in replacing Jonathan Taylor but he got hurt again right this is a guy that has had injury history not only throughout his NFL career but also in college last uh the season before his last season at Utah broke his leg didn't look the same uh dropped way in perceived value in the NFL draft because of that took him a little bit to get back up to speed in Buffalo finally look good uh in Indie and now he's in ciny with an opportunity to win a starting job we love this for Zack Bon right but Fitz and I are both Chase brown guys so we just straight up like Chase Brown more this is a pass first offense again just like the Rams they run through Matt Stafford this runs through Joe burrow there's plenty of offenses that don't run through the quarterback yes the quarterback has to touch the ball in every play but they're running through the Run game right I the Browns do that the Chargers are going to do that there's a bunch of teams that are ground and ground heavy Arthur Smith is a guy that that loves that as well so that's not what Zack Taylor is that's not what Joe burrow is that's not what this offense is this offense is throw the ball vertically let the Run game work as they work and I don't think Zach Moss is going to be a huge weapon for ciny this season and if he's not this season his value you're gonna be drawing dead on any value that he has moving forward so I think now is the time to sell Zach moss and you know get that third round pick back that we always throw in for extra pieces on a trade so that you won't have any trades hold up because you'll have a couple extra third round picks so I think now is the time to trade Zach Moss if you are a win now team that doesn't have much at running back like let's say you are like pretty stacked at quarterback receiver and tight end but you've waited on running back because that was your strategy and you do Happ and have Moss are you interested in holding on to him in that scenario Bogman where it's like listen like it's I just don't have the pieces to replace him or like kind of no matter what I mean a similar question to somebody like Swift are you just taking him for whatever you can get uh I don't know that I would take whatever I can get I'll say this if I'm if he's a guy that I think I'm gonna need this season then I'll just bump the cost up on him right like all right look I can't give you a third round pick that's probably a fair deal you know so I'm just going to hold out for that second because I need this guy anyway if I can get that second I'm confident that I can take that second and move it for something better than Zach Moss but for a third I'm going to make a lateral move anyway plus I have no uh backup pass on that I I'll hold out for just a little bit more if I need Zach Moss for this season I ask because in the work League that I'm in with Fitz I I am in that exact scenario where I'm really happy with every position except running back is not in a good spot and I have moss and I'm like I don't really believe in him this year but I don't have anybody else to replace him with so I feel kind of stuck uh Fitz it would be a huge betrayal of our listeners trust if you were to come on here and say you really like Zach moss and and disagree with selling him oh yeah absolutely and I was just thinking about like what I would take for Zach moss and bogs was talking about a third and a little something extra and I I had been thinking in my mind before he said that like a third round pick and a a ham sandwich maybe a really good one with gray Pan um yeah I mean so Moss isn't fast he's not a good pass catcher he was out snapped and out Touched By Devin single ter for the entirety of his two and a half seasons in Buffalo um he had one really good four game stretch last year for the Colts that um you know perked up interest in him for the first time in a couple of years um I he is the perfect sell High candidate right now although you know it there is some plausible upside for 2024 it has to be said like if he does wind up Chase Brown coughs up a couple of fumbles in his first game or um you know like and running for the Bengals you are not going to be facing many stack boxes when uh the other defense has to contend with Joe burrow Jamar Chase and T Higgins you were gonna be see a DeAndre Swift right Fitz yeah you could see that type of season for Zach Moss I mean I think I see it more if like something bad happened to chase brown but like you said Chase Brown fumbles a couple times Zach Moss comes out the swinging could be his job for a little bit Yeah so there's there is plausible upside for him in 2024 but like there is nothing to as far as long-term value for Zach Moss that is a house of cards Fitz let's do the last running back here who do you have Rashad whites and a guy I do not hate by any means um Rachaad White like he shouldered this big workload for the bucks last year with 272 carries 64 catches 1539 yards from scrim rage nine touchdowns like that was a terrific fantasy season but do the Bucks want him to have such a big load especially when the numbers suggest that he is just not a very good runner so according to our friends at fantasy points among the 23 running backs who had 200 or more carries in 2023 Rashad white ranked dead last in yards after contact prary missed tackles forced prary and expected points added and he was second to last in explosive run rate like he's just not a good runner um he is a very good pass catcher and he's now shown that for two straight years and that has value in Dynasty leagues which are predominantly fullo PPR um but the the Buccaneers did spend a fourth round pick in this draft on Bucky Irving of Oregon granted not my favorite Prospect in this class only 192 pounds 27th percentile speed score seventh percentile burst score relative Athletic score of 2.22 on a 10-point scale so I don't know if Bucky Irving is really the guy who's going to come and and steal a major chunk of Rashad White's workload but I also don't think Rashad white is um you know being seen as the long-term answer at running back the way the Jets are looking at Bree hall or the Falcons are looking at bejan Robinson so um probably a good time to sell Rashad white after a top five fantasy finish at running back last year Bogman where you at on white yeah so I wasn't big on Rashad white coming into the NFL I thought he was a little bit overrated so I wasn't real high on him you know so I missed the boat on Rashad white being great but I do think that like Fitz alluded to this is mainly volume based this is not very skill-based I think he is better than I thought he was coming in so I'll take the L on Rashad White's value you know from the jump so I was definitely too low on him but I think all the stuff that Fitz said absolutely applies and I think it can still be true that he is overrated because of the workload he's better than I thought but it still doesn't make him great I don't think he's as good a running back as Travis etn I don't think he's as good a running back as the guys that fits listed bean and Bree he's not on that level he gets a huge workload but I think you bring in someone super talented next season or maybe Bucky Irving looks more like the guy at Oregon than he did like the guy at the combine I think Rashad white could will be missing touches quickly if they bring in someone close but they just haven't brought any it's all Chase Edmonds and sha Tuckers and guys like that behind him they haven't really given him any real competition so I think uh I think Rashad white is a little bit of a ticking time Problem by now most of you have probably heard of reality Sports Online the powerful fantasy sports platform where owners get to build and manage their fantasy team like an NFL general manager but the question is have you tried it it's time to go see what all the buzz in the dynasty community is about free agency multi-year contracts a rookie draft multi-team trades franchise tags contract extensions firstr rookie options automated contract and salary cap functionality and much much more think it sounds complicated it's not the best thing about reality Sports Online fantasy front office is that it doesn't take any more time than a standard League it just requires more strategy think you're among the fantasy Elite well this is the platform to test your metal still not sure you can test out your general manager skill for free in a mock free agency auction if you like what you see use promo code fantasy pros to receive a 10% discount on your team or league today that's promo code fantasy pros to receive a 10% discount on your team or league today fantasy just got real at reality Sports online.com all right let's move to the overvalued wide receivers now we kind of like mostly agreed in a lot of these running backs um I disagree with a lot of your guys' choices on uh the remaining positions so I'm more excited to get into those uh vman let's start with you yeah the most overrated player in fantasy football Christian Kirk is uh Christian Kirk my number one pick for the wide receivers here and I just I don't know why Christian Kirk gets this like number two tag for your wide receivers all the time he's a possession guy yes but the guy is had one good season he really he's had very solid Seasons he's had one really good season that was 2022 he had 84 catches 1100 yards and eight scores it's the only time he's gone over six touchdowns the only time he's gone over 80 receptions the only time he's gone over a thousand yards was that season so uh you know he started out his career getting banged up 12 games 13 games 14 games stayed healthy for two seasons missed five games last season so for Christian Kirk he's a good wide receiver he might be the number one on the team especially in terms of Target in receptions he could be but you have Evan Ingram who is a great pass catching tight end you added an explosive playmaker and Brian Thomas Travis etn catches the ball out of the back field a lot uh Gabe Davis is a home run hitter that they've added they they like to see on the field a ton I think Christian Kirk is overrated now I think he's going to be overrated moving forward because I think Brian Thomas by the end of the season is the best wide receiver on this team and I just you know yeah sure it's a Texas guy hating an Aggie but I have not like this guy from the jump I don't I think he's super overrated and I looking to trade him because I think you know maybe he has another middling season like he always does and he's kind of okay or he gets hurt but his numbers are big before he gets hurt so people still like him for whatever reason I just I'm not Bamboozled or blindsided by Christian Kirk I feel like he's put a a curse on the whole Community here so I I'm sure this is one that you hate uh Wormley uh that that I want to sell High here but uh I'm I'm not gonna back off on my question C Kate I actually spoke too soon and I don't totally disagree with this one the remaining ones that I do disagree with um I like I'm not like passionately like I gotta go sell Christian Kirk and now it's time to strike um but I think it's a fair Choice here Fitz where do you come down on Christian Kirk so I might have taken issue with Bogman on this one prior to the first full week of preseason games um because I think Christian Kirk is a pretty good player um and I don't think he has been egregiously overpriced in Dynasty but I think the most alarming development I saw for any player in the first week of the preseason uh was for Christian Kirk who I I dropped like 10 spots in my rankings and redraft after I saw that he was not on the field in two wide receiver sets for the Jaguars when their starters were playing with uh Trevor Lawrence last week I I think it was Trevor Lawrence whoever was starting a quarterback for the Jags last week but um it was Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis and uh unless it was three or four wide receiver sets Christian Kirk was standing on the sideline watching and if he's not playing in two wide receiver sets if if they want to start Brian Thomas Jr right away and our hellbent on uh you know seeing that they're free agent expenditure on Gabe Davis pays off then boy I mean like it would be a real uphill climb for Christian Kirk to get anywhere close to a thousand receiving yards this year so yeah I I think he is probably going to be overpriced if that is the role they have for him as just the guy they bring in in multi- receiver sets I mean he's only done it once in what is that six seasons anyway a thousand yards so can't really Bank on it Fitz let's go to your first wide receiver the A1 sell High and this is one that I do not agree with yeah and I'm making an enemy of uh of bogs too on this one it's it's Michael Pitman Jr and and look like it's not like I'm dogging him another case much like with Kiren Michael Pittman Jr. Williams and Rashad white where I respect the player but I do think it's a good time to sell High um so Pitman had 109 catches and 1152 yards last season both career highs but Gardner mchu made 13 starts for the Colts and it was a different offense with mchu than we are going to see this year with Anthony Richardson um hopefully healthy for a full season inevitable that indies's gonna run the ball at a much higher rate this year if they have a full season of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor that is just inevitable they will be one of the five run heaviest teams in the League this year um and Richardson like I don't think he is going to be a bad NFL passer but um he's still relatively inexperienced like does does not have a lot of college experience as a passer and had a very truncated rookie season he had a completion percentage under 60% last year averaged 6.9 yards per attempt those numbers aren't well the completion percentage isn't great but uh 6.9 isn't terrible but it's not good and uh he had three touchdown passes in four games pitman's fantasy value is largely about V volume because he does not make a lot of big plays and he does not score a lot of touchdowns over the last two years he's averaged 10 yards per catch and he has 15 career touchdowns in 62 games so he needs volume I don't think Pitman is gonna get volume in this offense so I I think right now his uh fantasy value his dynasty value is at its absolute Zenith he he has been a guy reliant on volume to date I think he's still capable of getting better and I I he to me he's more somebody I'd be looking to buy than I would be looking to sell U maybe I'm not giving up the moon for him but I I just think he's more on the ascent rather than like currently at his Zenith like you described it fits Bogman what do you think about Pitman I well I'm wondering real quick Fitz do you have Pitman in any League that I'm in with you uh because we could work out a deal real nice I think but uh look Pitman is a great floor player 88 99 108 catches uh asra yards 1082 925 1152 like Fitz said the problem has been getting in the end zone right so he's getting a massive workload um but getting in the end zone hasn't been there there were 32 players last season with 20 or more contested targets and he had a receiving percentage of 53.6 there were two players with a higher contested catch rate with that many contested catches it was Chris Godwin and Courtland Sutton we saw kland 10 touchdowns last season so it's not that he can't score these touchdowns that he can't make contested catches for whatever reason they're not drawing them up for him in the end zone he absolutely can make these catches we just saw Josh D I was getting a little worried about Pitman we saw Josh DS go down with the high ankle sprain though so there was this really awesome budding connection between downs and Richardson it was scaring me a little bit but with Downs getting hurt with Pitman having such a high floor and let's not forget the absolute es show of quarterbacks that he has played with Gardner muu is the best quarterback he's played with he had the corpse of Carson Wentz Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan he had all go three ghosts and Gardner menu is who this guy has played with so far so if Anthony Richardson he doesn't even have to be that good because we've seen Pitman play with some bad QBs if he is good then I mean wheels up for Michael Pitman so yeah we're definitely fighting about this one fit I don't like it I'm I'm on the Michael Pitman hype train I would contend that Philip Rivers was not that bad in his last year in that year with the Colts go back and watch him then bman I disagreed with Fitz on this last one I'm gonna disagree with you here too okay uh how about what what were his numbers uh in because I don't remember but I know that 24 touchdowns 11 picks um that year for Indie I he would you know maybe the best quarterback it's either him or Gardner muu Philip Rivers wasn't at his best when he played with Michael Pitman so I'll just yeah that was that was Twilight Philip Rivers for sure but it wasn't uh it was not Carson Wentz bad that's true or Sam Ellinger for a big chunk of the Season either I love Sammy he's my guy but uh he was not ready when he was playing who's your next receiver box uh my next wide receiver here I'm going to go out on a limb a little bit this is Js Jaxon Smith-Njigba and I mentioned this before this is my young guy that I would consider selling and it's not about jsn and his skill set at all whatsoever it's about this offense and what it's going to be and I know a lot of people are super hyped on grub coming in from Washington we saw what Washington did last season with penck and three great great wide receivers he didn't run the ball a lot and he said that they have built this system around Gino Smith skill set which to me says we're going to run the the ball a lot because Gino can be efficient but I just he's getting older Sam how is his backup I kind of like Sam how but we know what Fitz feels about him Fitz feels like he's just a nothingburger so they really like Sam H how so it's gonna be Gino this year I think he's too old I think it's gonna be how at the end of the season I don't know if he's ready he showed his last year he's not so we're going to see a lot of running so sure Seattle maybe can go out and get somebody next year but if the running game works with Ken Walker and Zack sharony those are two really good backs that are both three down guys you could have this double-headed monster I think DK is your touchdown guy so now it's jsn is your he's your possession guy but probably not this year and if it looks bad and he's somewhat middling this year he doesn't have a big season he doesn't come on at the end and really Spike or surge or have huge weeks I think next year his value is going down so I think if you traded a guy like that now there's still enough hype there's still enough hope that you're going to get a decent return for him and next year I think if you if you're waiting or if you're not rostering him or whatever I think you're going to be able to buy him much lower than you should be able to buy him for so I think right now is the time to sell I think at the beginning of next year is going to be the time to buy for jsn when they have to reevaluate evaluate this QB situation maybe I'm completely wrong about Gino maybe he's a guy that takes over and looks really good much better than last year I just don't really buy it so for me I think the way this team is going to work is going to be run run run I think jsn is still the third option they showed us in the preseason that he played three drives none of the other starters really played and he played three drives so I don't know if this just he's young so they want to put him in there or if he's really that low in the pecking order I'm not really sure how to read that one either so I'm just low on jsn for now I get it but to me like the value has already dropped enough from where we were a year ago when I was extraordinarily high on him that I'd be much more interesting in buying that dip and not trying to hold off for another dip a year from now I just think like the the pedigree is too good they have a new offensive coordinator like maybe maybe it does backfire but I think it's good process to be buying into really talented seconde wide receivers and not looking to sell them Fitz I'm curious where you're coming at it you know on for jsn if I knew Sam Hall was going to be his quarterback for the next two years you could talk me into selling him uh but it's it's funny in all the the dynasty leagues I'm in I don't think I have seen a jsn trade since he came into the league because I think everyone who drafted him is still waiting for the the Rocket Ride that they were hoping uh they would start to take last year and it it just didn't happen but we know he was used very suboptimally by Shane Waldren last year as this short area receiver um catching a lot of stuff like really close to the line of scrimmage just didn't seem like he had that I think was it a hand or a wrist injury that maybe slowed his Ascent too um I just I guess I don't blame anyone who dra raed him for hanging on because this is a guy after all who has a sophomore at Ohio State sharing a field with Garrett Wilson and Chris alve had 90 plus catches and 1600 receiving yards and um it it's pretty hard to do that if uh you know you're a OPP poser who's just uh somehow putting up those crazy numbers with these great receivers playing alongside you so I do think there's talent worth waiting for here I'm optimistic that Ryan Gro can tap into it in a way that Chan Waldren did not in jsn rookie year so um I'm I'm still holding on him but like I I don't know what the market is for jsn since there hasn't been a trade for him in any of my leagues like I don't know what you could get for jsn probably a pretty good package I would think since there's still a lot of optimism for him but um 25 first plus right like I think you could still yeah you would hope for sure I mean considering that he was a a very I think that's what his managers would ask for but I don't know that a lot of people would want to say I'm giving up a first plus something more coming off of a really poor first season which is why I think he is somebody that hasn't been moved a lot I think he's a hard guy to move because if you drafted him you expected him to be a stud where he was drafted in rookie drafts there was a ton of hype and it's really hard to move off that after a year without feeling like you're getting back you know equivalent or better value and I don't know that people want to give equivalent value to that what about in a uh win now team let's say jsn is your four or five worm and you can get a first maybe first and a little sprinkle on top is that something that you you think you would do if he's not a guy that you're starting every single week you're kind of waiting I'm now team I'd rather get a good player rather than a pick well but I think you can take that first and move it for a guy that's better this year yeah I don't really like doing trades like that but you know if you're trying to take advantage of the market you are having to do those deals well let me frame it like this and I I know what the answer to this question is but I want to ask the question so you guys can answer it um what is the main difference in terms of how we're valuing him in trades between jsn and Quenton Johnston because both of them did not per they were both first round picks in rookie drafts depending on the league like just a couple of picks apart in some of the rookie drafts I was in both did not perform in year one it seems to me like everybody would sell Quinton Johnson for a bag of peanuts yeah meanwhile jsn were talking about a first- round pick plus I would agree with that sentiment I'm not saying it's wrong but can you Bogman maybe articulate what the difference is there and why you're maybe more willing to kind of sell High even on the dip with jsn whereas Quinton Johnson it's 0% interest yeah and I think well you know there's two reasons there number one is just the interest level right like you're not getting anything back for Quinton Johnson because nobody wants him but the reason that is is because he had his opportunity he was on the field he was with the better quarterback and he was terrible right so at least for jsn you can say I don't know about the quarterback I don't know about the offense his coach was fired maybe it just didn't work there and he didn't have the opportunity because he's behind studs in DK meaf and Tyler Lockett so I think all of that kind of adds up to well jsn really hasn't had his shot Quinton Johnson has had his shot and blown it maybe the numbers in the field time don't add up to that but I think that is at least a perception yeah can I can I weigh in on that um so I I although I didn't watch every Seattle game closely as if I were like a DieHard Seahawks fan like I I don't think anyone made the conclusion that um jsn like had an awful season whereas like Quint Johnston had an objectively terrible season and like the the season could not the runout could not have been any better for him as far as like other wide receivers getting hurt Keenan Allen Mike Williams he had every opportunity to shine um also like I I don't know if there's any like really yet identified discernable weakness in jsn game jsn game whereas with Quinton Johnston I mean the dude's got frying pans for hands and like that that seems like it's always going to be a problem for him and like that's just this glaring issue that he's going to have to overcome and who knows if he ever will but I also the possibilities of these offenses right Fitz like you know we know that the Chargers I almost said San Diego that the Chargers are going to go uh towards a run heavy look and the the Seahawks it's still up in the air and and that like QJ is still at Bass number four on that depth chart like he's been passed by DJ CH already and whereas jsn is you know at worst three behind Tyler Lockett who's uh you know certainly in the Twilight of his career right yeah I I don't disagree obviously like I said I I more just want to kind of pose the question to give an opportunity to articulate that um because I mean again they were pretty close in value just a year ago like Json was higher but it wasn't that far off so um just thought it was worth bringing up all right Fitz let's go to your final overvalued wide receiver my guy is Rashi Rashee Rice rice who um coming off a strong rookie season for sure 79 catches 938 yards seven touchdowns in the regular season plus the big game against Miami in the playoffs 130 yards in a touchdown but I I think it was largely out of necessity that Rice had such a big role for Kansas City last year I mean the Chiefs just had so little Firepower at wide receiver other than rice um Marquez vales scantling Sky Moore Justin Watson Kadarius Tony um just a whole lot of yuck in that wide receiver group and rice was even though he was Far and Away the best receiver the Chiefs had he had a very uh narrowly defined role as this short area catch and run receiver um his average depth of Target 4.8 yards and the Chiefs threw 69 screen passes to wide receivers and tight ends last year no other team had more than 51 the Chiefs threw 53 screens just to wide receivers and most of those were going to Rashi rice so now they've got Hollywood Brown although you know he's hurt already uh they also drafted Xavier worthy and of course they self Travis Kelce so they've got substantially more pass catching Firepower than they had last year and I I don't think they're going to need all those little screens and hitches to Rashi rice this year in fact I I wouldn't be shocked if we look back on 2023 as one of the best seasons if not the best season Rashi ever Rashi r ever had in the NFL so I I just I think it was just this uh season out of necessity for him last year and I just don't think he's going to have as prominent a role in 2024 and also I mean we have to at least bring up the knucklehead Factor right like I mean this street racing thing in in Dallas was kind of a big deal and certainly calls his judgment into question um and at some point like there's a suspension coming once his case is adjud adjudicated in the courts uh he he's G to get hit with I would expect at least four games so uh that's coming at some point and you know hopefully that's it for him it's the last time we ever read about him running a follow of the law but um it's got to be in the back of your head that maybe it's not what do you think Bogman I mean I think this is a really good argument against Rashi rice I I I don't really necessarily hate the short passes in the hitches and stuff because there's a role for that right it's like you know if it works it works and especially in PPR I'll take all that massive amount of catches even if he's not you know he's not gonna be Debo and breaking a million tackles like a running back but you know he took that role and he ran with it and I think that's a fine role I think worthy does something different I think Kelsey does something different so I'm okay with Rashid rice but as you said Fitz like this is not the last time the Chiefs are going to be drafting a wide receiver either it's not going to be the last time they're adding wide receivers for Patrick Mahomes you want this whole offense to run through Mahomes that's why you paid him half a billion dollars right so um I think they're going to add more weapons I think Worthy is great everything runs through Kelsey Paco's a three down back like I just think his role could potentially be diminished and that's not even mentioning the fact that he's going to have a lengthy suspension I think it's going to be more than four games when we finally get it because he smacked that photographer too so he just and are we Behind These idiotic decisions are these idiotic decisions or is he an idiot like I don't know so we'll have to fi find out that too so there's a risk there for future action so you know Martavis Bryant had an amazing couple uh first Seasons right and then couldn't get it straight so um there could be a little of a parallel in their careers if R Rashid rice doesn't get on the straight and arrow pretty soon so you know been good in Camp seems like everything is going right now so I don't necessarily love selling him but I also don't hate it either I think it's a pretty good argument from Fitz quick note for everyone to join our fantasy pros Discord Community chat with other fans and get access to exclusive amas that wind up on our podcast feed join the fun with Joe Welsh and bogs Mondays at 2 Eastern fits and bogs Tuesdays at 5 Eastern and Welsh and Ericson Thursdays at 3 Eastern come get your questions answered and be on the show at fantasypros.com chat all right we've got one quarterback and one tight end Fitz give us the quarterback that you're selling on oh Justin Herbert let's tip over a sacred Justin Herbert cow in the fantasy Community um and I do think the perception is still that Justin Herbert is this awesome young QB uh just a few years ago he had a higher Dynasty ADP than Joe Burl and um Herbert did have this undeniably great start to his career 4,300 passing yards 31 TD passes as a rookie then 5,000 yards and 38 TD passes in year two and it looks like we are uh you know we've got one of the next great quarterbacks on our hands but the last two years have not been all that wonderful for Justin Herbert he has averaged under 18 fantasy points per game the last two years putting him outside the top 10 in that category uh now he's going to play in what figures to be this run heavy offense with John Harbaugh or Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman in charge and even if lad makoni pans out the way people are hoping he will still a pretty below average collection of pass catchers with makoni and and uh the AFF forementioned DJ CH Josh Palmer Hayden Hurst at tight end um also Justin Herbert just like he doesn't really provide much of a bonus as a runner uh single season high in rushing yardage 305 yards his career ypa is 7.1 yards which is pretty average if we're being honest and it's actually uh under 7.0 in each of the last two seasons oh by the way his career 7.1 ypa lower than Baker Mayfields 7.2 career ypa um like I'm not saying Justin Herbert stinks like the guy throws one of the prettiest balls of any quarterback in the NFL uh great arm and he does have Mobility if he chooses to use it but uh I do think the perceived value right now exceeds the actual value by quite a bit which I feel like makes him the perfect trade candidate if you're sitting on three or four quarterbacks in superflex and um you know have the ammunition to get rid of one of your quarterbacks because I think you could get a windfall for Justin Herbert in a trade man I really struggle with this one because I think that's a really compelling case for me Fitz at the same time it's like hard to look at a guy who's as young as he is who is supremely talented as he is who's I mean not thinking about fantasy but just like all the offseason you know every podcast that covers the NFL ranks quarterbacks and he's still like top five in all those rankings from everyone and I know that's different from fantasy but it's it's it's hard for me to look at a guy like that and say I don't want him on my superflex Dynasty roster but at the same time I think you're making a really strong case for why he's worth selling Bogman what are you doing with Herbert right now two things with Herbert number one are we going to get points for handoffs at any point soon because Greg Roman and any Harbaugh uh Jim John it doesn't ma matter they're going to run the ball they're going to run the crap out of the ball so we're gonna see this team run the ball a lot that's why joal was their first pick as a regime here and all that so first of all we're taking a lot of passing off the table for Herbert and a lot of opportunity so that's the biggest thing that I think hurts him but the thing that you didn't even mention here Fitz this injury history is starting to get lengthy the rib last season and planner fasciitis going into the season which will keep him out of the first couple weeks or whatever and we know that's going to drag through the rest of this season and I was super excited for Herbert this season I thought he was going late because my thought process is well your defense still sucks you're gonna have to play an improved Raiders team I think the Broncos are better with B Knicks than they were with Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes that's your division you're going to have to go point foro with some of these teams because your defense still sucks well now that uh Herbert is gimpy that doesn't change you know the other stuff but I just don't know if I trust him and I want those rush yards I want the rush yards with him I want them with Trevor Lawrence I want some more from Patrick Mahomes I think these guys can run more but their contracts are so huge they're so important that their teams don't want to run them you have to really be a running quarterback in order to get those rushing yards it seems after you hit the NFL you can't kind of be an in between I don't think Herbert's an in between I think he could be one of the best scrambling and running quarterbacks in the NFL if the Chargers allowed him to do that but with this injury history it's and especially the foot injury now this year it's going to be less and less likely that he will take that risk plus they're going to run the ball more I'm out so I'm with you on this Fitz let me interject on the injuries though that that's the one thing I I can't like that's not really one of my reasons bugs and I I don't think he'll miss time with this plantar fash I just having um you know dealt with that myself like it it might curtail his rushing a little bit but I don't think he's going to miss any games for this but he's not he's going to have to have surgery for it so it's going to bother him the whole season which gon to which is going to mean I think if they're bad down the stretch possibly shelving him not letting him run and you know we'll see how it affects his passing I don't think it really will but that's not the goal now for the Chargers it's going to be to run the ball a lot so setting I'm I'm with you setting aside the injury stuff I do think it's fair to point out that yes we know the history of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman they've never had a quarterback with a golden arm like this one uh I do think they will always skew heavier towards the Run maybe than we like and you know relative to the rest of the league but I don't know that it's like this lock that he's going to have the fewest passing attempts in football because we like they might say holy cow we have Justin Herbert maybe it is you know more fishing to pass and and we should be doing that more so I'm open to that being an outcome as well I'll just make the point that Jim Harbaugh did have a quarterback with a golden arm at Michigan last year and the knock on biggest knock on JJ McCarthy uh coming out of college was like well if he was so good why didn't they ever let him throw so um that's but that's because they didn't need to one and one more about that about that rib cartilage injury that um Herbert had like I give him all the credit in the world for gutting it out through that injury he did not miss any time and I think there are quarterbacks in the NFL who would have missed like multiple games for that like he was a warrior playing through that so all credit to him uh on being a tough guy last player we're going to talk about today tight end bman who do you have for us yeah Pat fouth and I Pat Freiermuth I've waffled on Pat going back and forth uh this off season because I thought okay well we saw what Arthur Smith did to Kyle pittz and it was an absolute travesty right I think we could see a huge bounceback for Kyle pittz this season but then you watch the Steelers first preseason game right and you see you see what was happening with his snaps on the field he was routinely lifted in 12 Personnel for the first preseason game so two tight ends on the field and he's not out there so you know in passing in clear passing situations he's the guy he could have a big year the Steelers didn't get Brandon iuk you know who knows that's still up in the air they haven't added number two so it looks like this is a great opportunity for Pat fouth to be the number two receiving option on this team right but Arthur Smith ran more 12 Personnel than anyone in the NFL last season 41 A half% so if we're not getting pat on the field and look it's preseason so there's a possibility that this is like he just doesn't need these reps we're not going to put him in here right so I'm not like basing everything on the pre-season but I already hate Arthur Smith I don't like this passing situation the uh with the Steelers with Justin fields and Russell Wilson for this year I don't know who is going to be the quarterback for the Steelers next season also are they going to add a wide receiver that is much better than van Jefferson to potentially take targets away so I'm just not in on Pat Fri moth I don't like the situation I love his skill I hate Arthur Smith I hate the situation for him I don't like the Steelers QBs so I'm just going to avoid him and trade him if I can get anything decent for Pat Prim with him doing it I think Bogman hates the Steelers more than most Ravens fans do every time we talk in I hate AR Smith player he doesn't like not Arthur Smith uh Fitz we just taped a show before this where you really like Fri MTH in redraft are you selling him in Dynasty even though you like him for this year oh I'm really hoping and I saw the thing with the usage in uh two tight end sets and how it was what Darnell Washington and Michael puit yeah has been with Arthur Smith for a while yeah that's the problem that he is sort of his uh you know pets and I man I mean it just it would seem so self-defeating to take pat fouth off the field in those situations but self-defeating was kind of the Hallmark of uh Arthur Smith's play calling in Atlanta last year so um because yeah we were just talking about this on uh the the fantasy pros football show how um like last year the tight ends in Atlanta yes it was a disappointing for season for Kyle pittz but the total for Atlanta tight ends was 174 targets 114 catches 1380 yards and seven touchdowns like that's glorious if if Fri MTH can take just a a 65% stake out of like that Bonanza like that would be at mid-range to high-end tight end one season but yeah I mean Arthur Smith could absolutely uh pull the the plug on this for us and make Pat Fri Mo this uh wildly oscillating week- to week guy who you're terrified to start every week what are you looking to get back for him Bogman man if I can get that third that all so coveted third I think I would take it um you know if I if there's a wide receiver that I like that is maybe you know buried in the depth chart like uh let me ask you this uh Fitzy Troy Franklin for Pat Frou straight up what do you think of that deal it's it's close to being fair yeah Fair something like that like especially if Pat firemouth is my second tight end especially in a non premium tight end League where there's so many guys on the wire and I can you know grab and stash a guy maybe in a rebuild or even if I have deep benches and I'm not you know necessarily thinking I'm competing this year to flip a guy like Fri moth for uh you know wait and see like Troy Franklin I think that's something I would do all right we'll get out of there on that thank you everybody for tuning in for Closing these players that we are selling high on in Dynasty right now for Bogman and Fitz I'm Ryan warmley we'll see you again next time