How Much Is Kamala Harris Moving The Needle On Swing Voters?

Intro we're seeing much less backsliding now and we're also seeing people who are affirmatively excited and then we're seeing kind of a middle group that's like tell me more they do still hate Trump so they're sort of looking for a reason to like her where a bunch of people who kind of had this negative impression of her go okay show me what you got I'm open now I'm open for business I'm I'm ready to hear your pitch okay so new Vibes here on the Wilderness our last show was just after the debate that has now changed the course of history with just over 3 months to go in the 2024 election President Biden withdrew from the race and vice president kamla Harris is now the new presumptive Democratic nominee Biden dropping out this close to the election is a truly shocking development that has no precedent in US history but if you've listened to the show for the last few years you might not have been surprised that it was the persistent widespread concerns about the president's age that eventually led him to pass the torch concerns that didn't originate with the media or pundits or elected officials but with the voters Republican and Democratic voters of every age race and background especially people who haven't decided who they're voting for or whether they'll vote at all this was true of the voters we heard from before the midterms last season it's been true this season and it's why listening to the kind of Voters who will decide this election is so valuable and important because we can't persuade people without first meeting them where they are and hearing what's on their minds so that's what we're going to keep doing for the rest of the season season only now we'll be focused on what it will take to persuade enough people to make kamla Harris the next president of the United States the race is still extremely close and the VP starts as a bit of an underdog though she's already in a stronger position to defeat Trump than Biden was especially after the debate The Impressions voters have of her also aren't as hardened as they are with Biden or Trump and so the race between the Harris campaign and the Trump campaign to define the VP in the last 100 days of the election is on one person who's been frantically talking to more swing voters than just about anyone over the course of the last week is our friend Sarah Longwell the never Trump publisher of the bull workk and host of the focus group podcast we ask Sarah to come back and talk about what voters think of our new Democratic nominee and what we can all say to persuade the persuadables in our lives to vote for kamla Harris Let's get into it I'm John favro welcome to the wilderness [Music] Sarah welcome back to the Wilderness oh What groups of voters have you talked to I'm so glad to be here can't wait let's talk uh safe to say quite a bit has changed in the eight weeks since we last spoke on this pod um wanted to have you on again because I know you've been doing a lot of focus groups with persuadable voters especially since the debate and I've heard a lot about the new presumptive Democratic nominee vice president kamla Harris um what groups of Voters have you have you guys talked to recently and how many groups have you done since Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris okay great question question so after the debate I'll start there we like went on a focus grouping tear and I really wanted to dig in with both swing voters then but also with black voters um and so we talked to a did a lot of uh black voter groups especially we did two groups of black voting women because I was really trying to understand both what was the fear around if Joe Biden dropped out like we'd have the first female black president uh and so what was the resistance to that why was because the the campaign was really leaning on this idea the black voters were with him um so anyway and then I and did a lot of Swing voters because that's who I tend to talk to a lot of the Trump 2016 to Joe Biden 2020 voters uh and then since Harris got in we've also been trying to get as many in as possible I think we've done four okay and all swing voter groups um and yeah that's what we got so before we get to Harris in general how Joe Biden did people feel about Biden post debate did any of them think that the media coverage was overblown did any of them think he should stay what what were the Vibes like in in July so the two different groups the swing voter groups have been down on Biden now for months and years um I mean I don't know when the last time we talked but I never thought Biden should run again and I didn't think Biden should run again because I've been listening to voters in these focus groups for so long and I was seeing a ton of backsliding so and by a ton look uh when you have roughly half the group or even three or four people in a group of eight uh who are who had gone from Trump voted for Biden and now say they were going back to Trump almost entirely because of Joe Biden's age something he was not going to be able to change little bit of economy thrown in there but they were just down on Biden um and so now uh I would say after the debate it was got much just much more catastrophic in the language and people were mean they would say things like he's an animatronic wax work they forgot to wind up uh they would call him a corpse they would uh you know the insurrectionist versus they would talk about how like desperate they were over the choice it was like an insurrectionist versus somebody who's not even there um and so uh they were they I would say there is a a level of excitement over this change even from swing voters who like aren't there yet on kamla they're still so happy about it um they're they're glad that Biden stepped out but but you know you know we got all we all got ourselves in trouble we are the podcasters mean I really think they meant you but like we were among the podcasters who were were like he's he's got to step down and a lot of it was because of what I was hearing uh from these voters who they were they're the double haters right and Joe Biden had to turn it around with them he had to and when he failed to do it and it just got worse uh there was no path there was no path and and in and then but then let me just talk about the black voters quickly because I thought the black voters were super interesting in that we were hearing from people people that black voters under no circumstances wanted Joe Biden to step down that's not really what we heard from it now we heard more more all the swing voters wanted him to step down all of them in the black voting groups there was a lot of fear about what was coming for kamla if it was her um and there was there was some sort of loyalty you know um thing but but for the black voters were just like I don't know it feels better to have an old white guy because if it's kamla like they're going to tear her apart they're going to be awful to her and you could see the fear like how how much they were going to feel it when they came for comma I think we have a clip from one of those groups of black voters that you did before the handoff Black Voters so let's listen we saw what happened to Clinton and this time it's a black woman so now we throw something else on top of it I don't see that going well and honestly just black woman a black woman I feel for her even President Barack Obama like he's a man and he it was horrible like people's reactions to him winning it was horrible and then as people mentioned already um Hillary Clinton like if we were going to do a woman it would have to be a white woman first so this was a group of black voters you talked to a few weeks ago who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 so these are like strong uh Biden now maybe Harris voters were those views indicative of what other groups said about Harris like what what are some other Impressions voters have about Harris that they had sort of before the handoff so the no the black voting group was was pretty specific especially the women the two groups of women uh black voters because for them it it clearly felt very personal um and they also a lot of them talked about how black men that they knew didn't like kamla Harris and I honestly I remember feeling really sad after those groups to just listening to how much these women felt like it had to be Biden because they were like America's just not going to elect a black woman I mean you heard them say it and and they were like look if if we're going to go beat Trump we need sort of like the straightest whitest and somebody was was using the phrase Superman like there's just and I I felt I felt sad that people felt so um certain that America would be so against uh a woman or a black woman like it it didn't even seem to be re specific to Kamala it was just about America and what America would and would not uh accept but what's been interesting to me is how I think excitement can be really contagious right people were being dominated by a lot of fear in those weeks people were so nervous and you can see now that once it was kamla and once she showed up you could just see how when somebody is showing up right and they're going on offense people are like you know what I'm ready to rock I'm ready to rock with you and like I bet if we go back to those black women groups and ask them again I bet right now I bet they're doing calls uh for kamla you know they're ready to go and because certainly that's I think broadly what is happening I don't know about that specific group um I think they would still probably be like you know I'm nervous about how this is going to go and they're calling her you know a Dei president but I think that instead of the fear that they felt then now they would feel ready to go on offense with her so yeah we dealt with something Other Impressions similar way back in 2007 with Barack Obama and that like his numbers with black voters weren't that great and in some polls early on they were worse than Hillary's and the reason is because there was this fear that he wasn't going to be able to win and it wasn't until he wins the Iowa caucuses and a bunch of bunch of white people came out and caucus for him that suddenly the enthusiasm and excitement among black voters was like okay maybe we can do this like still had this fear right but like I this feels good I think we can do this and so like it's something similar happening now um she of course has the added challenge of uh sexism in addition to late racism as well um so that's that's tougher what were some other what are some other impressions of KLA Harris been with the swing voters you've spoken to yeah so the number one thing you hear about KLA Harris is the idea that people just they're like I don't see her what does she even do like I don't know anything about her there's this sense of I don't know maybe I thought she was going to be okay and then I never saw her again once she became the vice president and then the all and to the extent that they so that creates for them sort of a negative impression it's not a locked in um anti-a it's just a negative impression um and then there's also the there's like a step up above that that's that's more committed that is like she didn't do anything about the Border you know she was supposed to do X Y or Z but has done nothing um now the the I just haven't seen her I don't know much about her was so pervasive though that I think for a long time I was like voters don't like KLA Harris but when it when we had to sort of face the choice of Biden stepping down and understanding that like the idea of an open convention it was going to get tough and whatever and and you started thinking about comml and I started listening to the voters almost with sometimes you put different ears on you know because the the world changes and you're like I want to think really hard about what they're saying about KLA right now and I just thought actually there's a lot of upside here most people aren't saying they hate her most people aren't saying um she did this or that that makes them mad they have this like loose impression out of mostly out of an absence of something which means she can reintroduce herself to the country she has a chance here to redefine herself with these people because some people have a committed negative impression but most people just have like an absent negative impression so in the groups that you've done this week since uh Swing Voters Harris has become the presumptive nominee are these mostly uh Trump to Biden swing voters mixed races as well yes they are uh mixed race so most of the groups are um mixed race often uh we just wanted to do very specific groups of black voters after the debate because there was that specific conversation happening yeah um here's what I would say about the swing voters right now they're nervous like they're catching up they are not terminally online like the rest of us and so we're moving at the speed of light of things and they're still being like whoa uh this happened Biden stepped down uh um kamla is is she going to be the nominee like they're still kind of like will it be her you know they heard so much about open conventions but here's the things that I would say uh the few things that I'm hearing thematically one is for people who are negative uh I would say one of the most negative things we're hearing is the idea that there wasn't some form of a primary there's this sense of like well the donors got to pick and our Democrats picked and uh that doesn't feel fair that is a we've heard that from some people we still hear the like I don't know her I don't know that much about her but I'm going to go find out like I'm interested to learn I'd like to know more um and I it's funny in the groups you're actually they they they really are still double haters and so they do still hate Trump so they're sort of looking for a reason to like her uh in a way that they weren't before and this is sort of what I mean about new ears in the way that the context changes where a bunch of people who kind of had this negative impression of her go okay okay show me what you got I'm open now I'm open for business I'm I'm ready to hear your pitch and you could hear some of the people say like I didn't know that much about her but I assume she'll be good on abortion and like the and let me just tell you the other thing that's happening with the swing voters is it is happening at the same time that the JD Vance stuff is happening and that JD Vance stuff is it is creating a whole new layer of contrast especially for women and so suddenly she's also getting a new look in that kind text is she is the childless cat lady thing popping up in in any groups it is it is and just and and it's less the cat lady and more just um it's like less specifically that like the couch thing's not permeating specifically either but but but this is what happens when those kind of meane things get going here's what people take away it's less cat lady and more I don't think he likes women I think he's crazy on abortion I think he seems weird and I'll tell you you know who I I we did so many groups in 2022 both for Vance and on Blake Masters and back then I remember how much I thought JD Vance the way that people talked about JD Vance and the people that way people talked about Blake Masters was so similar they just think they're weird and JD Vance is getting that now too where people are like I don't know this guy sucks uh I just think he's kind of a weird his weird opinions about oh and he's extreme on abortion like that's what's breaking through and because of the flip-flopping on Trump it's not so much that they care one way or the other what he said before it's just that it's the act of this person must not have any core uh because he said all these things it wasn't like he said I don't want to vote for him he was like no he's America's Hitler now I'm his vice president like for people that's not like an evolution it's just like a really big swing for folks you Other Nominees mentioned that some people were concerned about the process that led to Harris did anyone suggest that they were that there were other nominees they were hoping forward did they throw at other candidate names or are they just sort of like eh how did how did we get here no you know we were asking a lot about uh names in the intervening weeks between the debate and when um Biden ultimately stepped down and and and now we've been asking about VPS if you are in Pennsylvania people say Shapiro we've been disproportionately talking to swing state voters so if you are in Pennsylvania they say Shapiro if you are in Arizona or if they're an Arizona voter uh they say astronaut man um you know if if Kelly if they're in Michigan they say Whitmer you know so like they don't have if you're in and if you're in Arizona you don't know who Josh Shapiro is and vice versa on on on these folks and so it wasn't that they had the only name actually that ever sort of comes up organically really is Michelle Obama like where they put it Forward um because this she comes up all the time I swear to God if Michelle Obama wanted to save democracy right now and when people say like a black woman couldn't win I'm telling you Michelle Obama running the tables I hear her name so often but the people that come up organically where people do have some Name ID the main things they knew about Whitmer was the kidnapping plot that did a lot for her with swing voters people are like that's cool you know she got someone tried to kidnap her uh Nome does come up he's got more Name ID than a lot of Democrats I think because he does like the Fox News hits he did the debate people know who he is um otherwise people tended and and Pete people know Pete a little bit and they immediately tell you that America will ever vote for a gay candidate so uh like the voters are so funny CU they all do armchair uh punditry when you start asking them about politics and one of the things they're very clear on is they think that America is a deeply sexist deeply racist deeply homophobic place that will not elect these people I happen to think that people are not nearly as racist sexist and homophobic as the other people's impressions of them are uh but you know I think yeah I Kamala Harris think the the election of trump probably did that for a lot of people right because people are like how did this guy get elected so let's talk about their views of of now Democratic nominee kamla Harris not just vice president KLA Harris um a big question has been whether the uh online youthful enthusiasm for KLA Harris is reaching Beyond a very online audience you talk to one group of trump Biden swing voters that suggests maybe it is let's listen it seems like the younger generation they are more likely to vote for Harris over Biden um like that's just the vibe that I get based on what's being posted online and based on what's being shared on social media I just feel like it'll be like a breath of fresh air um I feel like it'll be like a new beginning instead of feeling like you're watching a rerun because Trump has already been in office you know what I'm saying so we already know how that went she's quick wted she's funny she has a personality obviously being a fale there are people out there that don't want to vote for a female president I think those same people are ones that would not vote for Biden either they sound like uh focus group podcast Wilderness listeners talk about the pund tree they're just like diving into cross tabs um was that what other sort of positive things did you hear about Harris I have to say when I heard um someone say uh Trump is like watching a rerun I'm like they should use that that's good yeah well it's the never go back we're not going back right I mean I do think that's sort of implicit I think look I gotta I'll just this is a little bit of a side thing but I'm pretty impressed with the out of thegate uh Harris campaign yeah um I think that uh not going back is a good strong Strat is a good strong message for we don't want Trump again uh and it's interesting actually because it is one of the things that Trump voters say uh when they want to say how like they're not going back to the other Republican party um but it it it is a it is a deep psychological interest in moving forward in living a life forward that I think they're tapping into that voters like um and and obviously Trump is the backward looking uh but the main thing is that like I said they are when they say breath of fresh air and so they were super that person was being very positive about comma and we are hearing positive things from in the in the focus groups so like let me just go back because a lot of it is comparing the old the focus groups from before to the focus groups we're doing now so like I was saying there was a ton of backsliding they were filled with double haters people were mad about their choices and now you still get a little bit of backsliding you still get a bunch of some people being like well I think I'm going to vote for Trump because I've been unhappy about the economy or whatever but they're also saying but I'm open like tell me more uh because they don't love Trump um these ones and so we're seeing much less backsliding now and we're also seeing people who are affirmatively excited and then we're seeing kind of a middle group that's like tell me more I'm I'm I'm here I'm here to be interested uh but those people uh and when we're doing we do do head-to-heads and the head-to-heads where we basically are like elections tomorrow I demand you give us I demand you vote for us uh and I think in it's been like seven to one um and so that is much better than the uh sort of 6 to three 44 uh that we were seeing a lot of uh in the inter in the sort of 3 weeks after the debate we have a clip of um Kamala Harris Voters some of the voters you talked to who um are just expressed some of that concern and worry that the country would elect uh its first black woman president let's listen Obama's wife I mean at least she did some things I mean this is his wife and at least she was visible and I can't I can't say any I forgot that she was the vice president for a while I feel like I just don't know her well enough the positive part is I assume her being a woman she's going to be looking out for wom's rights um she's not going to be throwing women under the bus um trying to put us you know stuck at home cooking and cleaning I don't know like yall talk about 2025 project I'm like oh man that sounds like where that's headed what what's your take on how race and gender factor into the challenge she's facing in with the voter she needs and like how you know how do you think she should handle that so the main thing is that so the theory of the case around electing Biden which you know I run Republican voters against Trump and so I was very invested in all right who are the voters we need to move who's there with Biden and the thing about the reason that the uh blue wall states were we all felt like this is ultimately getable is because Biden was still doing well with old white people he was just he was doing well with old white people and in Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Nebraska too there's a lot of old white people um that's the question the question is like sort of college educated Suburban white people kamla with a Kelly or a Shapiro or Basher give me any of them any white boy white boy summer any of them uh fine I think that it's this older these older folks who a lot of them like they just don't like Trump because Trump he tried to C and that's not what they they they don't like the January 6 stuff they don't like that he's a jerk he doesn't they don't you know there's a there's a section of them I haven't dug in enough to know how much work you have to do to get those voters there um and if they're anti- if they're simply anti-trump enough that they would say yes to because those aren't the ones that are always like change they're just more like someone normal you know they're not the big change agents in fact change freaks them out a little bit and so that those are the voters I'm I'm most worried about now that being said I think that she so far um and and those are the ones who are also like a lady president uh a black lady president or like and you know don't say your pronouns to those old people this these are the old people who think that you know their kids are peeing in litter boxes because they identify as cats in schools or something here's the thing though um I do think we overestimate how sexist and racist a lot of these voters are they can get excited about somebody if they don't think they're a big San Francisco they are much more they will be much more concerned about the San Francisco Progressive of it all than the black woman of it all because if she shows them that she's tough that she can prosecute a case against Donald Trump if she's not going to leave the Border wide open like that is if she could sort of convince those people of that and I think that's obviously the tension for Democrat who runs right now but this is where this is where I feel like she could have it I feel like there desperation of the democratic base to have her do well like people are pulling for her and I feel like she could get some latitude on a few policy issues maybe not Gaza but on maybe on some energy Independence um where she can if she can do run on kitchen table issues um talk about the economy uh that she wants to be there for everybody where Trump's there for himself I think you could start to get there with those people well I I totally agree and I Kamala Harris Positions think she will have wide latitude and I think she will have very few qualms about positioning herself that way I do wonder about what she do what she says um with regard to some of the positions she has taken in the past especially during the the 2020 primary where they all went a little little nuts um there's a Dave McCormack who's the Senate candidate in Pennsylvania Republican senator candidate ran an ad about all the progressive positions she took um Trump did a similar riff in his rally this week and he's starting to do ads about this uh let's listen nonpartisan gov track has raided you as the most liberal Senator I am prepared to get rid of the filibuster to pass a green New Deal abolish ice is that a position you agree with and we need to probably think about starting from scratch outdated it is wrongheaded thinking to think that the only way you're going to get communities to be safe is to put more police officers on the street so for people out there who like their insurance they don't get to keep it let's eliminate all of that let's move on I am opposed to any policy that would deny any human being Public Health period the more people get to know her they're going to be particularly impressed by her ability we did it we did it Joe every one of those policy positions a dagger through my Centrist loving heart look I I remember and I'm a big lib but I remember during the primary when they got they asked the question about decriminalizing border crossings and they all raised their hands and I was like this is not a good position to take this is I this is I don't think this is what we want here to decriminalize Illegal border crossings um but what do you think what do you think she can get away with here right like does she just take a mulligan on everything she said in the 2020 campaign or does she say like you know I let me tell you what what I've done the last four years with Joe Biden who's my partner and when I'm when I was actually in the White House and and then and when we've been governing this is how we've governed you know I don't I don't know what she says here's what I would say I would say well first of all just as a broad thought uh I think that if JD Vance is allowed to go from calling Trump heroin for you know the masses and saying that Trump's a sociopath and America's Hitler to being his vice president I think people get to move I get people get to change their minds on some things that's one I think that there is I think there's actually an easy way to deal with a lot of this say I've been vice president for the last three years and I've learned a lot doing that I have seen what it means to govern not in California but for this entire country and you know I mean she you know and you know what I did I sat there with Joe Biden as we passed a a bipartisan infrastructure bill I I sat there as we passed like you know the biggest climate change legislation but also by the way we're producing more energy than we ever have before that's right uh and and on immigration border crossings are now at their lowest level than they were when Donald Trump was last in office and you know what I believe that we need secure borders like I do think she's got to do uh some of that and I will be you know if she can do that and this is where I think the party's got to give her the latitude to do that I I believe that the American people they can run that out a lot and it's going to hurt her and frankly they've got to get up on TV as fast as humanly possible with the new Rebrand of her but I there the American people are like I get learning and and especially learning and and changing one's mind they they can do that yeah that's I I kind of have that same suspicion what you mentioned them getting up on the air if they do get up on the air like they have a lot of choices here obviously they're going to have to push back on some of these negative ads or at least do so on their own terms what do you think voters would like to hear from her or know about her in this period where uh she's trying to Define herself yeah so I would say if I if if I were running this campaign I would have her say a lot of nice things about America Donald Trump right now says just garbage about America all the time it's a dark place it's a bad place um and I think that people right now want a hopeful message I I think that um I think you could do a little bit of Obama here but like very future oriented but America is a great place because people are going to try to paint her I should have said this during the sort of what do you what do you hear about race and gender I'm not necessarily hearing this in the focus groups but I know what Republicans are going to do this Dei president stuff is real it's going to work with a certain kind of person more on the grounds of like what it's going to tag into the she didn't earn it uh right she just got this handed to her from Joe Biden um and so I think that she has to show people a sense of like I'm I'm an American and I love this country like this country gave me a lot I am good with this country you know cuz people um they're going to try to paint her as something outside this is why the Obama birth certificate was a thing right they will take anybody who is of color or any other difference and they will try to paint it as outside the mainstream in some way or outside in a way that people can't connect to and so she needs to connect to them on the things uh that they can feel happy and good about which is like no America's a good and and Joe Biden was good at this Joe Biden even in his in his speech saying goodbye last night I I had my got some quibbles with with with it but the way he talks about America is the way I feel about America and one of the reasons that I struggled actually one of the reasons I was kind I was a republican is I felt like Democrats were down on America and they would say it be negative about America but now Trump's the one talking negatively about America and and so like I think she can own America if she tries like broad messaging you know the 21-year-old me listening to the Barack Obama's 2004 convention speech my first impression of it was like oh a Democrat who's talking about patriotism and loving America but it's not just like the you know airbrush patriotism of like I like the flag too it's like literally my name is Barack Hussein Obama my father was born in Kenya but like somehow that's what this country is all about that someone like me can be included here you know and I do think that that she she's going to have a moment I think probably at the top of that convention speech where she int reintroduces herself to the country where it's going to be like very important that she does exactly what you're saying yeah well that's my that's my play that's my that's my yeah no I I agree um so she has also has some big decisions to make around how she talks about Trump uh and how much she talks about Trump um so far she has a riff uh Kamala Harris Trump that compares her track record as a prosecutor with his track record as a criminal uh she talks about how Trump would bring chaos fear and hate she talks about project 2025 based on your conversations with voters what messages about Trump do you think at this point have the potential to move voters and how much should she make the election a referendum on Trump versus like she's got to do more work than Biden obviously to introduce herself her views her plans what I see her doing and what I hope she will do is Define help to introduce herself and Define herself as she is defining Trump because a lot of what people have wanted and this I I don't always love this uh in people but I do hear it from voters all the time is they want a fighter they want someone who is Prosecuting a case against Trump and they want somebody tough and one of the reasons people often are down on women as candidates is that they don't think they're going to be tough enough they're worried about how they'll deal with world leaders um and Donald Trump gets high marks for being decisive looking you know strong leadership and that's because people are confusing sort of the strong man authoritarian stuff with leadership um but I think that if she goes at him in a way that feels and that she's been doing this so far so like you can see it when she's doing it right now for example I just saw a clip of her saying I want to debate I'm ready to debate he's trying to backpedal Let's debate let's do it anytime anywhere yes like that right it is it is about sort of showing I am not scared of this man one bit but there is the um there is a grievance victim thing and like the out to get Trump thing that you just have to um there's a way where you can you can sort of tip into what people tag is like kind of trump derangement syndrome yeah and you they you get there by talking about Trump too much um right so this is this is the point you were just making where she has got to find a way to be prosecuting a case against Trump but not always on just Behavior he's immoral or democracy it also has to be on uh and I just saw something to this effect right it's the Not Looking Back how he mishandled covid and put drove the economy into the ditch how he doesn't care about middleclass people like how he does tax cuts for the rich like you can't just prosecute the case on sort of democracy and he's a bad guy have to tie it into policies that she can contrast with yeah she can't look like another one of those prosecutors that's just out to get Donald Trump just for whatever reason because you're right that's like a a resistency thing that could that she could tip into's careful and Leticia James and Jack Smith yeah yeah that's right and she made this pivot in the first speech where she did the comparing the records and she goes but this is so about so much more than me and Donald Trump she's got to keep making that pivot to people I think and she's doing it well have you um how are the voters you've talked to in the last week feeling about Trump did they did you detect any Newfound admiration for him after the assassination attempts no wow this this was so um in the swing voters again so I'm talking about swing voters it's actually been pretty bad for him h a lot of conspiracies like they and and it's like they think so little of him that there's a lot of like I don't know about this seems like it could be staged there's been a fair amount of that to the point where I'm like all right settle down voters too yeah these are not like hardcore you know Dems or anything uh but because they think Trump sucks and so they think like he would and he's a show person and a liar and so uh there's and none of them like a lot of we asked and introduced the idea that you were hearing from a lot of sort of cable news and uh you know do you think that this will change Trump and everyone was like no you know like there was no sense from the voters uh I think that he's obviously G to get a you know it is it is I was watching Fox news last night during his speech and so I was watching Laura Ingram uh and you know I think for Fox News Watchers they will continue to treat Trump trump as a martyr but that is not coming through with swing voters when swing voters talk about Trump they dislike him intensely uh some of them are willing to vote for him based on things like the economy or the fact that he says he's going to do something about the Border it is not because they like him or they feel good about him really in any way and that's why getting a credible alternative uh is so important that they can just get there on uh project 2025 Project 2025 she's been talking about it a lot is it coming up organically in the focus groups and what do people say about it yeah so it went from a thing that never any nobody ever said to like post debate when suddenly for the first time there was like even even before because people were mad about Joe Biden seemingly being pushed out they were there was a lot of like why aren't you talking about project 2025 and a lot of people were like hm what's project 2025 and it went from never being mentioned to it comes up in absolutely every group now wow I would say their um their ability to drill down into it and know what something is in it is pretty like one we were at we the moderator said to one woman who was like have you this there's really scary this project 2025 and she was like well what specifically scares you about it and yeah well you know it's and finally came up with it it wants to eliminate gay marriage um which I don't know that eliminating gay marriage is in there it does do a lot of traditional family stuff but uh anyway the point is is it's become this cat it's like woke it's like woke uh it's just like a catchall boogeyman uh for people and so I think that there is a tremendous amount of opportunity though because the 900 page project 2025 is batshit crazy uh and there is so much that you can pull out and I would not do not do what Democrats do where they build build an enormous PowerPoint presentation on it like find the five things that women are really going to care about cuz there's a lot of stuff about like w um eliminating uh Child Care things like you know find uh a series of things in there uh for that women would care about that you know different things and like drive those things home for people I I do think you have to sort of teach more about it but I'll tell you Democrats have been given a gift on messaging where organically people have decided that they care about this and they're telling other people to care about this and that it's scary well that's good news yeah that's good news that it's breaking through um yeah anything else not schedule F please don't talk about schedule left though because that piece of it is like everybody's like well a president just gets to put in the people that they want nobody thinks that's a bad part well and she's done a great job of already sort of um hitting the economic components of project 2025 so she's not making it about just schedule f um anything else that we should know from these these uh post post handoff groups you know I would say um this is going back to the very beginning of our conversation but you know there there is some residual because I said the focus groups the real people are moving less quickly than the people online are right and so I think there's still a week or so before they maybe hit some of the same excitement level there is some frustration with the fact that Biden didn't step down a lot earlier um that people feel like we're in this position now because he should shouldn't have run again and someone should have taken the keys a lot sooner and I think that there's a little bit of bitterness uh this is especially in within swing voters um I think there's a little bit of bitterness that it sort of like has played out the way that it has and so I think when KLA Harris says that she's gonna I'm gonna earn this I mean and sometimes I was like I sort of wish Corey Bush could have done a little little mini primary against her just to just to have just you know John love it would understand this but sometimes you need a fir making challenge right to to get to the end you got to have a fir making challenge to show you've earned I thought on the other side she was going to have it from like a Joe Mansion for a second but there's yeah that's right I would have been bad that would have not been good Mansion Stand Down um and so I do think that her maybe acknowledging at some point sort of how this happened um and and and making being a little bit like talking about what she's learned and and how how passionate she's gotten about wanting to help people I think she's going to have to do some of that to bring some of these people around who feel like when you the Dei stuff is about not earning things and so you don't want that to take hold too much and so I think some acknowledgement of that is good um but man no she should be she should go hard on immigration uh not hard but I think that she should she should sound a little hawkish I think it's funny because they're crabbing her when she was running to the left of everybody in the 2020 primary but if you see stuff from actually before that she was a prosecutor suddenly you're like oh hey hey look at I I I'm like oh this this warms my heart listening to this she's telling kids to get their butts back in school you know she's being tough I love that stuff I mean it's also like there's a there's an Obama era immigration message that is both like Authenticity this is a wonderful country because we welcome people from all over the world and we should give a pathway to people who are here working hard and want to become citizens and also this is a nation of laws and we should make sure that the border is secure and we should be tough on that like there's just it's it's it's simple and it's there and it's very popular and it has been for some time if there's one thing voters can sniff out it's like the phoniness and I think where she has struggled in the past and the reason they've been able to Brand her in certain ways is that she has either when she was running for president in 2020 I don't think that far-left stuff was her uh and I don't think when you're the vice president and you have to hold somebody else's reputation somebody else's policies as your own that can be uncomfortable right it's hard not to argue as yourself but to argue as somebody else it makes you have to C calate a lot more calibrate a lot more and my hope and I think even my expectation is that her being allowed to be authentically herself as she runs this campaign could be one of the best things for her not just because I think she'll be slightly more moderate on policy but because I think that they won't be able to I think she will look like a different person to them in her authentic skin in her authentic like way of being getting to Define these policies for herself that's what I'm seeing from her so far and I'll tell you what man nothing with these voters all of them beats authenticity yep and I I totally agree with this I think she she does know who she is and I even think that some of now the clips that are you know uh going viral on the internet um of her like laughing and having a good time in the coconut tree stuff that's all that's different than her in the 2020 primary who seemed someone like she was always worried about what position she was taking the the laugh and everything else that's like her being like you know what I'm a little goofy but I know who I am I feel good about who I am and this is just who I'm going to be right now like she she sort of like sort of calmed down the last year and just like sort of found herself a little bit and I think so I think it puts her in a good position to do exactly what you just said um Sarah Longwell thank you as always I know you're uh you're busy conducting so many focus groups so we appreciate you coming back on the Wilderness and uh we'll talk to you again soon thanks so much for having me [Music]