Top 10 RB Rankings + CeeDee Saga | Fantasy Football 2024 - Ep. 1609

Intro Hey, it's me, the guy who introduces the show. Listen to my amazing voice. Now, check out the amazing Ultimate Draft Kit. The guy's been all off-season creating this bad boy, and they keep it updated all off-season. It's got their full projections, breakouts, sleepers, buss, over a hundred player profile videos. It's even got a mobile app. Has my incredible voice load you into a deep sense of trust and commitment? Perfect. Now, check out UltimateDraftKit.com and get ready to win your league. Now, back to the show. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. Back with you Friday, August 9th, another episode of the podcast. Another delicious episode, nutritious. Don't get me hungry. No seed oils on today's episode. Very nice. Yeah, trying to keep it healthy. Oh, yeah, for the gut. Yeah, I mean, we, you know, got to keep it tight, got to keep it right. Season is here. Did you guys watch any pre-season last night? I actually did. I watched a decent amount of it. And for those who watched it with me, you know why I had to say it's football time in Italian because that was, okay, it's back. We're happy. We're ready to get into some actual real stuff. There wasn't much happening. No, no, there's not. You know, if you just watched pretty much the first quarter of each game, which is where you're going to see some starters, you saw nothing. You saw, you saw absolutely nothing from, from the two teams. I think to me looking through the games, watching them, I watched them this morning. And I, I mean, there's, there's only two takeaways that I can even lean from both games. All right. What do you got? And they were both from the Giants. One, Malik neighbors, obviously not good. No targets. Yeah. There's just cardio. Okay. I mean, out there running nothing. So wash out, freak out, man. No, but the real only takeaway was Tyrone Tracy does appear to already be established as the guy behind Devon Singletary. I mean, you know, some of these guys, I don't worry too much when a, when a rookie is further down, like Jaylen Polk, he was not a starter, even though they had two starters out with injury. I don't care. It's the first week of the preseason. The only thing that matters to me is like, was a guy up. You know, if he's already up, that means he's got the opportunity. It should he, you know, stink with it and, and you know, it can go away, but that's a really good sign. So Tyrone Tracy is my only real take. Not, not Eric Gray's four for 52 and two touchdowns in the followup. No, not, not, not after the, because we know those two are competing and he obviously had a great performance. Yeah. I mean, it's one of those things where it's like, who are you performing against? What time of the game? When, as far as how I look at preseason. All right. A couple of headlines before we jump into an interesting quick question. We've got the running back, top 10 rankings countdown today, but you can head over to ultimate draft kit.com right now. I want to point of clarity, said something on the show that showed up in the support requests. Uh-oh. I made a big deal of the ADP comparison tool, which is awesome and is available to use if you have the UDK. What I didn't specify or realize in the moment was that it is currently only available on the web version of the UDK, which I learned quickly yesterday. So if you want to use the specific average draft position comparison tool that shows you sleeper and Yahoo and ESPN and underdog and all of that, it is currently only on the web version. So a little shortcut for you. If you have the ultimate draft kit, if you just go to myUDK.com, that works. That'll take you right to the dashboard, click on the ADP comparison tool in the research tab and you can use it there. It is not yet on the app version. However, I bet it will be soon after what happened yesterday. Thanks, Andy. So ultimate draft kit.com, if you don't have it yet, that's headline number one. You can follow this show or reminder for the season. First, click follow on the podcast app. Leave us a review if you are so inclined on Apple Podcasts. You can follow on Spotify and Apple Podcasts wherever you're listening. We appreciate that. You can follow the show also on Twitter, also known as X at the FF Ballers. You can watch the show on YouTube, youtube.com, slash the fantasy footballers. Subscribe, click the bell. That way you're a part of our Sunday live and any, I mean, we've got a live stream coming up. Ooh, a week from today. We're going to give away a UDK for life. This is a promotion we do every year. So that live stream is coming up as well. If you don't want to miss your opportunity for that, youtube.com, slash the fantasy footballers, subscribe, click that bell. Am I missing anything? I don't think so. Have I covered all the bases? I think you got it. Al, I'm looking at you. No, I think you got it. All right. If we missed anything, it is Al's fault from here on out. Got it? That'll work. Okay. Quick question of the day, guys. Does the relationship exist between, what is the D'Andre Swift outlook relationship essentially between rookie quarterbacks and the performance of their running backs? We've talked a lot about how rookie quarterbacks cap upside on wide receivers and the only wide receivers that have ever really had exponential success with rookie quarterbacks have been Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne. Kenan. Yeah. Prolific Hall of Fame level whiteouts. They were usually alone on their team at the time. But we haven't talked a lot about the running back position. So a question came in from Caden talking about Deandre Swift because he's in that boat. Caleb Williams will be the starter. What does the data say about the upside, the floor of running backs with rookie quarterbacks? The data we looked at was basically every quarterback that started at least 10 games for their team. And then how did that running back, the primary number one fantasy finisher finish? And essentially the easiest way to understand this, the big takeaway is they're okay. They've got a safer floor than you might think. They're not going to drop off to the fifties and be a complete bust. But it is very rare for them to be a strong high end fantasy finish. The highest fantasy finish was the running back six. And that's, I mean, that'd be awesome. But that was also Austin Eckler, who was already, you know, an unbelievable great running back and 108 targets. 108 targets mixed with the unbelievable year of Justin Herbert. So that was a little bit more of the outlier. Yeah, another good one was a hundred target season from Leonard Fornette with Gardner Minshew and his rookie season. So basically you've got it's it's 59% of the time. Yep. The running back was a top 24 running back 33% of the time. The running back for a rookie quarterback was a top 12. This is the past five years. Is that what that is five years? So I see since 2011. Oh, that's 2011. I'm sorry. I was looking at the other running backs. So yeah, when you when you bring it back to DeAndre Swift, you say, well, how is he going to do? Okay, you know, it should be okay. He should he's not the type of back that to me strikes me as a guy who's going to finish as an RB one. But he's got a really good chance of being an RB two. So you know, if he even just follows the normal trend, that would be 59% over the last decade. And then, you know, if you say, well, Caleb Williams is better than your average rookie quarterback, we hope, then maybe he's got a better shot than that. The hardest part for me with the Chicago Bears is just the the the investments of ADP that are being put into every single player of the offense. And I guess not every but the three wide receivers and DeAndre Swift. And it's just it's and Caleb Williams. What I'm saying is of the past catchers of like, there's there will not be enough to go around to satisfy those four players like someone someone could come through a big time. But if that happens, that that means that there is a huge loser in terms of someone at that ADP. So that's that's my only concern with the Bears is just we are very excited for Caleb Williams. And I think people are a little too ahead of the curve for what he can produce. News and notes from around the league presented by USA insurance. CeeDee Lamb If you were watching preseason football, and you were you were too screening it as many of us do, you're on social media, you know, like interact with people having a good time and also watching the games. This was the headline. This was the star of last night. He's covering his face because it is so unbelievably frustrating. A quote came out from the Cowboys owner. Jerry Jones was being asked about C. Lam and the looming contract extension. And we got the quote. I don't have any urgency to get it done, which was just an absolute haymaker thrown at all of us who believe in CD lamb of like, what are we doing here? And then CD lamb, the source, like the actual guy retweets that the the the caption that's going around of Jerry Jones. I don't have any urgency. And his quote was the caption, what I should say from CD lamb. And then he removed America's team from his bio. And Micah Parsons joined in and retweeted that. It was it was a fun time. But also, Jerry, Jerry, Jerry, if you are listening, let me encourage you in this. Since you don't think you have a sense of urgency to get the deal done with CD lamb, I think you want to see it happen in your lifetime. So it's pretty urgent because you use, you's about to die. You are. Whoa. I'm saying he's old and he's he's gone. I mean, what is he doing? It's just one of those like, like he is, he's got to be next to death story. Is that a threat? It was not a threat. It was an encouragement. It was he's 81. Yeah. I mean, look, you've made it past, you know, my lineage of family tree. You've had a great life. Maybe step aside or do yourself an even better thing than stepping aside. Get it done so you can see it again. Step aside is not a euphemism either. Okay. Look, here's the deal. It's so it's so it's so annoying because he's talking in the same quote all about the amazing players getting made by other players like that. What an opportunity it's presenting for like I'm being inundated with Zeke runs and Dowdle runs and catches by Brandon cooks like incredible negotiations is not working. You know what I mean? Like we're good without him, you know, whatever, take her leave it. I'm going to have to channel Mike. I know he's on your dynasty team. I'm going to have to just take the mantle here. You're not doing the job needed to get CD the deal. I'm going to make a guarantee right now. It's done in the next week. Okay. I'm making the guarantee right here right now. I'm going to call some people. I'm going to straighten Jerry out. Do you want to know how old Jerry Jones is? He's sold that his actual name is Gerald. They've stopped naming people Gerald. I mean that is you. It cannot be true. Anyone know a Gerald? I feel like that's I know one now. They've all gone. His name is Gerald. His name is Gerald Wayne Jones senior. It sure is born October 13th 19. Oh, I was going to guess, but it's so wild of I mean, I made the same argument for Brandon. I you go. You did it man. You were in the middle of the first round and morons in the draft passed on CD lamb like the Cardinals. They took other wide receivers instead of CD lamb or Isaiah Simmons. You didn't even you didn't even need a wide receiver at that time. But you said this is the best player on the board. We have identified him and it has worked out better than you could have possibly imagined. You have a truly elite player. This isn't like this is different than the Brandon I you situation because this is not a we can have a debate of how how top tier do you think Brandon I you guys as a wide receiver. There is no debate. There's no debate on CD lamb. He is him. I want you to give him the money. I want you to tell me what happens to this team if he didn't play football. Oh, brother. We talk about the Cowboys offense as a really good offense. You know, you your argument for Rico Dowdle is you want a running back that is part of a top tier offense. If CD lamb is not on this team. This is a bad off. I mean, I think deck is good enough to be a middle of the pack offense, not necessarily like a bottom five, but he doesn't have the weapons to get that done without CD CD lamb. I mean, his his utilization. What was he? He was he was the receiving game. He's 48% of the receiving targets. 53% of the receiving yards of wide receiver. Yes, of wide receivers. 44% of the wide receiver touchdowns. He's what makes it work. All right. I'll get it done. Yes. B is Dan Graziano said the Vikings believe they'll have TJ Hawkinson back at some point during the first half of the season, AKA not weak one. Well, that is that is known. No, but you would have loved to. I mean, when I first saw this news breaking, I was hoping it was going to say that he could be back early. It's good to know this now because you don't want to get closer and closer to the actual drafts and still know not be sure if week one is in the cards. I do think TJ Hawkinson is, you know, if you've got an IR spot, yes, that's fine. You know, highlight him as your last pick in the draft because he'll he'll go undrafted in a lot of these places and then whatever, just throw him on an IR. Yeah, but that to me, that's it because it's okay. First half of season. What kind of person are you? Glass half full. If you are like, Oh, first half, you know, maybe week three or week eight. Like this and then he's reacclimating with the devastating knee injury. He, if you have an IR, I'm okay with it. Yes. But your point is if you don't have an IR, he absolutely cannot be drafted. He cannot be drafted. And then we'll play the game of which week, which week is it that you go after Hawkinson off the waiver? Like, I think there's a legitimate case. I'll draft TJ Hawkinson and throw him on my IR with my last pick. Sure. And there is a very good chance that he won't even retain his IR spot. You know, if I, if week two comes along and I've got a player on my roster that's injured, I'll be like, see you later, Hawkinson. I don't want to deal with your slow start. You were just a free hold, you know, space, but if I need your spot, yeah, Hawkinson is, is probably going to come back slow. All right. The Colts have said that Anthony Richardson and the starters will play a series or two. Okay. In the preseason game against the Colts. Against the Colts. That is what I'm reading the Colts. I'm Ron Burgundy. Thank you. I'm going to go out on the line and I'm going to say the Colts win this game. If I'm a betting man on a limb, okay, I'm going to bet on the Colts. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN says the Chargers quote have major plans for Quinton Johnson. Is he going to be a chef or what's he going to be doing for you? Yeah. The word major just implies like big. Yeah. It's not positive or negative. We don't know. Major plans like they're hoping to train them. We see a real draft pick in his future. Yeah, that was, you know, how about starter plans? That would, that would help me. Yeah. If you have a plan to start would have been a bigger, more important piece of news than major plans. Having major plans. Is that like, there's like a vacation coming up or he's got major plans. Yeah. He's going to Hawaii for two weeks, bro. Major plans. This is not like a little short stay. Could it be, I mean, he doesn't strike me as a special teams type of player, but like, no, that's like, no, when you have major plans for, but what, what is major plans for not a starter? Like, I think Quinton Johnson could still end up. Yes. He should. He was a first round pick last year and they, they really need him. I feel like the end of this season, we will be saying the Chargers had minor plans for Quinton Johnson. So I think that's the odds. That was today's news and notes presented by us a insurance. Learn more at us a.com slash insurance. We'll take a break. Come back with our running back countdown. Running bags. One of the things, just to put a ball on the Top 10 RB Rankings Quinton Johnson stuff and the Chargers, like if you see Jim Harbaugh being asked questions, did you see him get asked about the progress of Justin Herbert? Yes, I did. I don't know. It was fantastic because it was like 30 seconds of him saying, I'm not even qualified to be qualified to be qualified to talk about whether I'm qualified to say whether he's healthy. Because of the injury. Okay. It was just like, but, but things are positive. Yeah. That's how he ended it. That's funny. He's got so, he is a fun press conference. Did you also see him? Cause he got, um, there were some consequences for recruiting violations at Michigan that just went through. Did you see his comments on that? Oh, did he? Yeah. He peaked. Not my problem. Well, I mean, he peaked Carol in the sense that he departed before the consequences, but he came out and he had to, I mean, you should watch it. It's awesome. It's like, I mean, awesome might not be the right word, but he basically just says like, I live my life with great accountability for mistakes. If I make a mistake, I come out and say, I'm sorry. And then he just goes, I am not apologizing for this in any way, shape and form. He's like, I was not aware of anything that happened. I did not do anything. I, you know, like, Like it doesn't matter. So we got an, I apologize for nothing. Yeah. From Jim Harbaugh. Nice. Hard dog. Hard dog living it up. It's a fun watch. So all right, we're into the, uh, the top 10 running backs are consensus half PPR rankings. You can see all the rankings. Um, you can import your customized scoring system, get printable cheat sheets, see it all inside the UDK right now. UltimateDraftGate.com. This is our top 10 by consensus ranks. Number 10. He's still there. He's a king. Derek Henry comes in at number 10. I am the Derrick Henry lowest of the three of us on Derek Henry at 14. Jason has him inside the top 10, Mike at 11. Uh, he was the RB eight last year in Tennessee struggle of a season for that offense. But this is Derek Henry. He's led the NFL in yards after contact for four of the last five years, double digit rushing touchdowns for six straight years. I think it's going to be seven. It's going to be seven. It is the, uh, he has the running back equivalent in a lot of ways to Mike Evans in terms of longevity, consistency, and defying the age cliff. Yeah. Right. Is that a fair comparison? Yeah. The, in looking into running backs, the, the age cliff and the season cliff, like these are absolutely real things for mere mortals. Got like people, just regular human beings. If you're playing running back 27, 28, things really start to fall apart. But once you get, once you're an outlier, you're an outlier. And you, for me, it's, I will, I'm going to run with him until the wheels absolutely fall off. He gives himself an incredible shape. The team invested in him. His success has always been very correlative to wins and losses. If you look at his entire career, the average is double the fantasy points and wins. And you're on a team now that you expect to win a lot of ball games. Now he may not have, I would not expect Derek Henry to have the volume total carry counts that he's had in previous years. I don't think that the Ravens will use him in that way. We've had seasons with Baltimore and Harbaugh where, you know, the Gus bus owned the fourth quarter of games that they were well in the lead for, you know, there were, there were a lot of times when they had workhorse backs and then they brought somebody else in to be the efficient closer. But it won't matter. I don't think, I mean, I think Derek Henry's efficiency in three quarters of a win is going to be more valuable than most running backs in four quarters. Yeah. Gus Edwards did not crack 200 rushing attempts last year. He had 13 rushing touchdowns. And from week seven on, he was the running back 12. So you get rid of Gus Edwards and bring in the Yeti on a team that is going to win a lot of games. You know, their, their win totals one of the highest in the league. And so if you, if you're telling me this is a team that's going to win games, that means they're going to score points. They're going to score touchdowns. And when they get down around the goal line, even though they've got a mobile quarterback in the Marjax, that's not how they have approached the goal line. He isn't a Josh Allen, Jalen Hertz type of guy that's going to push, push his way in. They're going to line up the big boys and they're going to put the biggest boy behind them. And they're just going to have him easily get in the end zone. So Derek Henry to me, there's only pretty much two ways to look at him. Do you believe he's going to be up, you know, 12 to 15 touchdowns a season? Or do you think he's aged out? Their office of line got worse and, and you know, you don't want to be the one I talked about it with Vante Adams at some point, and this happens to running backs too. You don't want to be the one holding the bag and then you're just left for dead because it's over for that player. And Sean Alexander, who was so, so good, so, so good, so, so good. And then a squat. The, the bear case for Derek Henry season is that 25th ranked offensive line, losing the starters, not being efficient on his touches and then having the occasional non touchdown game where he's not even giving you the floor you needed. Like that would be the kind of, you know, when you're trying to paint the bad picture, do you agree that that would be the case? Like he's got, you know, he's got 13 touches for 40 something yards. He's not going to get in the passing game is my point. Oh yeah, of course. Like that not only does Baltimore not throw the ball to the running backs very often and it will be just as hill if they do, but like that's the bad game case. I don't think there's anything wrong with that bear case. This is, I mean, like if Derek Henry were 24 years old, like he would be ranked as a top three running back this year. There's a reason he's down here at 10. So, and because things could go wrong. I just, my chips are on the side of having watched him last year. And yeah, like he was, he was the running back eight and he was getting platoon to big time by Taji Spears last year. I think Kyle correct me. Spears may have even out snapped. He did. Derek Henry and like it doesn't matter because he's getting those really high value touches, which are the touchdowns. And I, it would be, even if he fails, it would take a catastrophic event to keep him away from 10 rushing touchdowns. He was the running back four and the running back eight for a really, really, really bad Tennessee offense the last two years. You transport him to Baltimore, pay him, make him the starter. He's going to be fine. Transport him to Baltimore makes me feel like it was like big effort on a like a flatbed. 100%. This is massive cargo. Moving like free willy. That's how they take him from game to game. They can't put him in. They're not chartering him on the team jet. They can't get off the ground. This is a precious man. We need to put him in a Pope mobile. Isiah Pacheco Number nine. All right. Isaiah Pacheco comes in at number nine. This is above average draft position right now. He's being drafted at RB 12. You two are the two highest in this office. He is definitely the guy in Kansas city. So much confidence in the offense and things working for the chiefs. I am, I guess, I'm right at ADP. So it's not like I am- Yeah, you're not out. I'm not poo-pooing on Pacheco. I still look at this offense. When I think of what I love in a running back for my fantasy team, I love it when they're the identity of the offense, right? Like Chubb was and Henry was for years and Barkley. I still am going to look at Mahomes and Kelsey and, you know, some weeks, Rashi Rice and some other players before I'm looking at Pacheco. But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the identity of this team will be Isaiah Pacheco. I'm curious to see how it goes. The identity of the team will be Mahomes for sure. However, I think you're wrong in the sense that the identity of the team wasn't Cream Hunt. When Cream Hunt was, you know, the running back for the identity of the team was the passing game. But their offense was so good that the touchdowns flow and Mahomes finds you in the passing game. Andy Reid uses you at the goal line. And Isaiah Pacheco, if you watch what they've done, you know, as far as what running backs are on the roster, what running backs they haven't brought back, what they did and didn't do in the draft, he's just the dude. When you listen to Andy Reid talk about the three-down skill set, how he can run a full route tree, how his hands are great, how his protection is great. Isaiah Pacheco is a three-down back for the Kansas City Chiefs who are being underdrafted right now because last year was a down offensive year for them. They brought in more weapons and I view that as a good thing, not a bad thing for Pacheco because Pacheco, within the running back core, is going to be the guy. So I just want this offense to click and be awesome. He'll be out there. They'll be winning games. And he's also a big-bodied back with extreme breakaway speed who isn't 30, who isn't 30 like Derek Henry. He's 25 years old. He's in his prime. So I really, really like the outcomes. I feel bad for the grass the way Pacheco runs, but I don't see outside of him getting injured. I don't see how he is, you know, the running back 24. We've seen players that are probably not elite talents have elite seasons in Kansas City with McKinnon being a double-digit touchdown player late in his career and some play, you know, Clyde has had success despite not looking good. I was interested in this information here, Mike. How do you react to it? Pacheco was 24th out of 35 qualified running backs in elusive rating, 27th-innovated tackles, 21st-in fantasy points per opportunity, and 26th-in yards per touch. So the efficiency numbers statistically weren't there, but obviously you're attached to the best offense in football. Yeah, it's a, you know, certain ways to look at a running back of more and more with running backs being in tandems. Like, we need efficient guys, you know, because the view of the three down running back, that is for the most part, that is it's almost gone from the NFL. So he doesn't have that efficiency part, but he has the volume and the high-powered offense. So I think that that can overpower and combat the these efficiency numbers. And it was looking at last year of the snaps. I mean, it's just it's an ascending chart of when the year started, it was not full-time Isaiah Pacheco. And he was not, I mean, if you remember where he was being drafted, it was actually quite late. The ADP and the crowd was not sure that Isaiah Pacheco could retain being a seventh round pick and still stealing the job from Clyde Edwards-Alarge. And it took kind of over the course of the year for us to really get there, opening at 48%, 51% of the snaps, 42%. And then by the end, after the bi-week, 60%, high 70s, and then finishing with a game where he's a 90% snap guy. I don't think he's 90, but we get him into that 70, maybe low 80s and looking at the depth chart. I think that that is in the range of outcomes where powerful offense getting all the volume, volume can be the king in fantasy football at the running back position. And I'm like he is an absolute smash draft. If I'm getting a running back in his area. Number eight. 27 year old Saquon Barkley coming in at number eight in our rankings. Jason has him at seven. Saquon Barkley I got him a nine. Mike at 10. Just got paid three years, 37 million, 26 million guaranteed by Philadelphia. That's going to be really painful for Giants fans this year. And seeing him run out there in the green. But what is your overarching view like after an off season of thinking about Saquon and this offense, seeing him have to do everything in New York for so long. I'm curious where you're at now with some time. I have risen on Saquon Barkley since when it first came, there was a lot of fears for me about goal line opportunities, touchdowns, whether it will be okay for him. And then you look back and you think about DeAndre Swift. DeAndre Swift had a really good year. He trailed off a little bit at the end, but the Eagles trailed off a little bit at the end. But Swift was good because of his yards before contact. Swift was number one. I believe the highest percentage of his yards came from yards before contact because their offensive line is great. And he had goal line opportunities. Swift had 14 carries inside the five yard line last year. With this offensive line, if you give 14 carries to Saquon inside the five yard line, the push-push will go down for Jalen Hurts because Saquon will actually break the plan of the goal. Saquon only had eight last year. And if you look at like running back inside the 10, the New York Giants last year were 30. The Eagles were fourth. And that's not carries. That's running back carries. So I do think the opportunity for him to finally be on a good offense is really, really good. Did he look bad last year? It's hard to tell when you got 11 defenders. It's hard to tell. You got 11 defenders just trying to tackle you and ignore the other 10 players on offense. Mike, any thoughts on Saquon? He's just, he is so difficult of, I got him in RB 10 and this is one of those, I don't feel great about having him that low. It's more of a matter of, I just have- What's the range of outcomes for Saquon then to you? Like where, what's the range of where he could sit? Can he finish top five? Yes. That's the issue. Can he finish 18? Yes. That's the problem with the range of outcomes for me when I'm looking at the entirety of the situation for Saquon Barkley. Swift was, I mean, at least in terms of running back attempts, like he was the manual 80% after the bi-week, 80% of the running back attempts, 78%. This is a utilization that if Saquon still has it, top three is in the range of outcomes. We got to make sure we get some of those targets, but he is, he's one of my scariest players of the year because the Delta is, it's gigantic to me. All right, moving on. Number seven. I hit the button in the middle of me talking. Allow me to interrupt myself. I assume that had to have been Al Bolin back there because, because you're enough Saquon. All right, we're moving on to number seven. Travis Etienne. It was a heck of a year for him last season, especially to start Travis Etienne Jr. the year. He was the number two running back behind CMC through the first eight weeks of the year. Those are impactful fantasy weeks. That is, that is a fundamental part of the regular season. How scared are you? Cause I'm scared. He was in the first half, like you just said, he was, you know, the running back three second half running back 32. It was so bad. Which is the truth? Yeah, I'm not that scared at all. I got him at seven. I, he's just too important to this offense and there is, you, you can't pretend that you have a depth chart behind him. You don't, you just don't have that. You might have a snap here or there with some other players, but Etienne is, is too, um, you know, he's young. He's in that prime age for a running back with an offense that has already been able to lean on him and see great success. I, I feel pretty confident. I'm not worried about the season breaking up the way that it did. The offensive line had struggles. Trevor Lawrence had injury issues, but I am leaning on the 340 opportunities to bear itself out this year. That's where I'm at. Yeah. I, I, I totally get it. I've drafted a couple of shares of, of Etienne, love the 73 targets, the involvement in the past game, the fact that you lose Calvin Ridley and you're bringing in kind of more unknown commodities and Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis was not a target hog. So you expect him to still be involved in the receiving game. And obviously he is someone that can score from distance. Uh, there's a lot of reasons, there's a lot of reasons to like him. However, if I compare him like to the aforementioned sake one, uh, he's two years younger. I don't know that he's any more explosive than sake one right now. I expect the Eagles to be a far better offense. Um, it's just a matter of maybe Etienne gets more targets. I would rather have Barkley and I've, I've been, I've been in a couple of places there in that second round where that this is the decision. Like they, they're both still on the board and you're deciding between Etienne and Barkley. Um, usually I go with the younger guy, but this time I'm going to go offense. Where, where would you be between those two players? Well, I, you know, to me part of it is the, uh, the, the injury usage concern that I think exists for a sake one where, you know, he missed three games last year due to injury. Again, we, we dealt with that, um, multiple times in his, his history. So I think, I think you're going to have at least 50 more opportunities in the offense for Etienne. Now, whether that translates to more fantasy points, I think is in, in fair debate based on the two offenses. I just, Etienne is, he's a player that just probably won't find his way onto any of my teams because a lot because of what Jay mentioned of the decision of, okay, it's, it's Seyquan Barkley or Etienne's Kyren Williams or Etienne's Devon Hain is going just after Travis Etienne and the, I don't know, man, I get it. You feel like you're not going to be able to pull the trigger on that name versus the other offenses? Yes. And it, I get it. I get it. I'm saying I, I understand just how horrifically bad tank Bigsby was as a rookie. We, we just mentioned like Kenneth Walker, like, no, I'm not hearing anything about Kenneth Walker at in training camp buzz. I'm not hearing anything about Zach Sharpeny. I'm not hearing any, so it's like, okay, that's a wash. I'm not hearing anything about Travis Etienne, not necessarily worse, the worst thing in the world, but they are pumping up tank Bigsby again. And so that just, They're pumping him up in, as far as what we hope we can get from him, not as far as what he's doing. That's the problem. Like tank Bigsby is nothing, guys. I think that'll be the biggest mistake that you make. I'm not saying you have to take Etienne, but, but thinking about tank Bigsby at all is a waste of brain cells. I think tank Bigsby is Benedict Arnold. I really do. I mean, he's a traitor to America. He's a traitor to the Jaguar. He was, he was a spy. I mean, he was so good. He was the other team's best player whenever he was on the field. He just constantly gave the ball to the other team. So this is like having a discussion about a Marey D. Markado or Michael Carter in Arizona, who both are better players than tank Bigsby. Like this is not, we cannot live in the past with tank Bigsby. I'm saying, I understand that, but for a player who's supposed to be as good as Travis Etienne is, and getting all the, the work that he got last year with the team saying, we have to lessen the workload. And he finishes the year at 3.8 yards per carry. That to me is a, you got to figure out how to get that guy off the field to rest a little bit more. All right. That's the concern. I mean, they did say that last year and they didn't do it. Yeah. Cause Bigsby was so bad. Benedict Arnold. Yeah. So I'm going to, that's what made this, this conversation is a repeat of why Travis Etienne was a monster steal in drafts last year. You have to pay more for him this year. Yes. So that's the game. Number six, Jonathan Taylor. I think we're, I think we're all ready to Jonathan Taylor regularly talk about Jonathan Taylor again. It's been too long. We have had to deal with injuries, disappointment, lack of quarterback. And we have not settled into the Jonathan Taylor conversation very often and he's going as the RB five. So people are ready to, you know, lace them up and put them in there as their RB one and fantasy football question marks around Anthony Richardson hindering his ceiling, the red zone opportunities. The team has come out and been very vocal. They're not going to limit Anthony Richardson physically and in any way and slowing him down from running the football. So just like the touch push and take one Barkley, Richardson and Taylor cannot score in the same play on a rushing touchdown. So, and this, this bears out the, since 2015, there's only been one running back who has scored 15 fantasy points per game alongside a quarterback who scored 100 total rushing fantasy points. And you have to assume that if, if Anthony Richardson plays this season, he's scoring 100 fantasy points on the ground. So that means that the ceiling case 15 plus, and this is half PPR. So 15 plus fantasy points per game. It's, it's really not in the cards for, for Jonathan Taylor Thomas where, but context there, if you look at who scored 15 fantasy points per game last season, you had Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Moster, end of list. So it's not, it's not that they, that he can't have an awesome season and go out there and score, um, you know, something really healthy. Can he be the RB one? He cannot be the RB one. No, I don't think so. I don't think he can be a top three running back, but I, I do think, I mean, I've got him at running back six. I think he's going to be a clear, awesome running back one. I'm happy to draft him. We just have to be honest that like he, he can't go out there and score 15 rushing touchdowns. Number five, Kyron Williams comes in at number five. Sean McVeigh historically been a one Kyren Williams back kind of guy. And last off season, that meant excitement around Cam Acres that turned into unbelievable production for Kyron Williams. He saw 37% of the team's total opportunities. And that, let that sink in. In the 12 games he played, 37% of the team's opportunities were Kyron. Only CMC was higher. It was a wonderful ride. And yet there's some doubt, right? Like the, if you graph the, um, you know, the, the Richter scale of fear around Kyron Williams, it's gone up and down and up and down a little bit of camp injury. Then he's fine. He's going to be the guy. But then, you know, word comes out that Kyron was a little bit, uh, concerned when they drafted, uh, Blake Corm. I don't know if you saw that. Like he actually see that one. Yeah. He said he was initially scared when they draft the Blake Corm that he's not going to be the focal point. And then the team comes out and reiterates that he's the focal point. So, um, much like tank bigsby and they'd love to give Travis ET and opportunities to be efficient and get a, get a rest. I think they want to do that a little bit. What does that mean for the Rams offense? And what does that mean for Kyron's upside? Yeah, I guess, um, point of clarification here, but it is both helpful for Kyron and the aforementioned Jonathan Taylor Thomas. When I said there were only those two guys, Moster and CMC that scored 15 fantasy points a game. Um, that was looking at the total season ending list, uh, because 19.9 points per game was Kyron. He just missed several games so he wasn't up there, but that's how powerful he was for fantasy football last year. One of my things, we always try to learn lessons year after year after year, not just lessons that we keep forever, but also lessons of change and adaptation and what the current NFL is doing. One of my big lessons last year was if a guy was great on the field, if he proved that he is awesome and the team goes out and invests and brings in depth and brings in another player and brings in competition, I'm not going to be scared off of awesome. Um, and that was true for, uh, Travis ETN last year that was true for, uh, Kenneth Walker last year. I believe it's going to be true of Kyron Williams. Kyron Williams is so good for this system. You look when he came back from the injury. He was the running back one, nine, 18, five, 11, one, running it at 8.9 a carry, 4.2, 4.6, 5.6, 4.7. He's just really, really good. He can catch the ball perfect. He fits this scheme super nice and he's always been a great back. Like we love it. It's hard to remember because he basically missed his rookie season after having poor draft capital, but in the NFL draft, when we were preparing for that, Kyron was one of our absolute favorites. He's a really good running back and the team loves him. Bringing in Blake Corum is a smart football move. It's good for the Rams. It might be good for Kyron Williams. Even if it takes another point or two away a game, you know, if he's not 19.9 and instead he's 17.5 points, but he plays 17 games. Fantastic. I am not scared off of Kyron. I'm fully in. 83% good games, 50% great games by our consistency metric. That's awesome. We'll take a break and come back with our top four running backs. All right, before we jump back into the top four, baby, yeah, before we jump back into the rankings countdown, I think he was trying to say that I cut to the ad at the wrong point, like a three. If I cut it three, then you've got gold silver bronze for our top four because we always try to correlate with the Olympics is what Jason saying. Not always, but maybe while they're happening. So on Saturday, we're going to release a bonus episode of this podcast. We're going to, we're going to re-release the 10 things to remember episode from early in February because we would like to remember them. So there'll be a bonus episode coming out on Saturday. And so stay tuned for that and extra episode of the show after we finish up with running backs here and then we'll be back into rankings countdowns next week. Number four. All right, number four, Jameer Gibbs. Jameer Gibbs coming in at number four Jahmyr Gibbs is ADP. His average draft position is the RB four right now, which is, I see him going eight, nine, 10, 11 pretty much in every single draft. It seems like if people have to take him earlier than that, they get nervous. But if it's later than that, they feel like they stole. It's always weird to draft the player that you know, you know, at 22 years old can score on any play at any given time and yet shares a backfield. Right? Like you're always going into the week saying, I think it's going to work out, but what happens if they just get dragged down on the two yard line in three straight drives in Montgomery scores? Yeah, it could absolutely happen. I mean, when you're drafting David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs, each one of them, they both have incredible opportunities, should be good for where they're drafted, but they both have a built in not just like, Oh, what if this guy vultures that guy, but they both have the built in, what if the other guy gets injured? And you want to talk about the Detroit Lions rushing attack with that offensive line, that scheme? I mean, that's a league winner. And so you've got, I think in Jameer Gibbs, if David Montgomery is healthy, you already have someone that is essentially a league winner quality player. You know, Montgomery was fully healthy after the bye week. And after the bye week, you saw Jameer Gibbs already be pretty darn awesome for fantasy football. In those nine games, I mean, I mean, from week seven through 16, he was the running back three averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game. So you have an incredible upside. He's also, if you think about what I just said, that's from week seven to 16, because he got off to a slow start. He was a rookie. He's not a rookie this year. He's coming in as the guy in David Montgomery's the backup. You expect him more included, including the receiving game. I mean, you might be hopeful that Jameson Williams steps up for the first time in his way too long of a career to not have stepped up yet, but Josh Reynolds is gone. And so getting Gibbs more involved in the passing game. He's a really exciting prospect for me. When I look at my rankings, I would still take like Breece and Jameer Gibbs are basically almost identical in the, in the total fantasy points scored. I would rather have Breece than Gibbs, but that's the tier of fantasy points I expect from Gibbs this year. The confidence in Gibbs can also be helped like a foundation for it of at the end of the year, you know, both players are, are healthy and Jameer Gibbs is still getting carries inside the five. Like David Montgomery is still absolutely doing his thing. He's getting carries inside the five as well. But like they didn't, it didn't, it was not a full time role. Like the way when Jamal Williams was there, it was just when you got inside the, the five, Jamal Williams is going to be the finisher. They've, they spread that out. And I think with this off season, getting more and more integrated into that part of the, of the offense, Jamal Gibbs is a player that despite being in a timeshare, Jamal Gibbs, I think can finish as the RB one. Number three, Breece Hall comes in at number three. Breece Hall I've got him at two, Mike has him at two. So we both have him as the next guy off the board after CMC. Jason has him at four, which means, he's basically tied with Gibbs and in scoring. And, but I do have Bijan ahead of both of those guys. Elite pass catcher, elite weapon in the Jets offense and showed that despite being on one of the more putrid to watch offensive teams in the history of the NFL, he could still finish at RB four. Oh my God, coming off of a ACL team. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's incredible. I mean, the only, I don't really know how low Breece Hall can finish without injury. He's too good. He's too good. The average touchdown for the New York Jets last year came from the 25 yard line, like away from the opponent's goal. Their offense was so historically bad and he was the running back four. Now, his passing volume is going to come down. Yes, it will. Because last year that offense didn't know what to do. Praying spray with the offensive line being so bad. It was just, Hey, run out to the other side of those big guys and I'll just toss you the ball. That was over and over and over and over and over, which was great for fantasy. That's why he finishes the running back four. But it's also the reason they did that is because just get the ball in his hands and let him go. It's our best chance at having a good offense. Now, if you've got Aaron Rogers behind a much improved offensive line, you have opportunities to set defenses up for Breece Hall's success. So, I mean, you know, we're at the point now when you talk about Breece and Bijon and CMC where I mean, these guys, there's really not a downside argument. Yeah, you would not feel like somebody made a mistake if they took their shot on a different name than what we have in this order. Not at all. And then like Breece Hall, this is a like, this is why knee injuries are so tricky because you have both Breece and Givante Williams who were returning last year from devastating knee injuries. One of them as the season went on, you saw it more and more like, Oh, there's Breece Hall. There's the electric player. There's the burst. It's coming back and Givante just you, you never saw it. So like by the end of the year, you know, those final three games where the offense was entirely Breece Hall and he's still running for nearly over five a carry when the other, when the defense knows exactly what's going to happen. Like that's the type of back and there's like, there's, there's no investment behind him. They took Braylon Allen, who seems to be lined up to be the number two, like an absolute hulk of a man. But this was a day three pick of we just, we don't like the back of us behind Breece Hall. Let's see if we can find a different one. Breece is the guy. Number two, Bijon comes Bijan Robinson in at number two. Bijon actually has a good player behind him at running back. Right. I mean, Tyler Algieri is a good depth running back. He has everything that they would have hoped Tank Bigsby could have been or any of these names played for what they would love blank quorum to be. But Bijon actually has that there. But you know, from a versatility standpoint, Bijon comes in at number two. He's going to catch passes. He's going to have explosive plays. He's going to have red zone opportunities. You know, we're excited to see what the new offense is going to look like last year. They lined up in 11 personnel, just 14% of the time on first down. They have a new offense. Oh, that's low T. 11 personnel is the lowest. Yeah. I mean, you don't want to embarrass yourself by lining up more than two wide outs. But when he did have a chance with three wide outs on the field last year, he had almost six to carry. It's so funny to look at the 11 personnel numbers of the Falcons last year and how good they were when they did that. It's like how they did not correlate to a change in behavior. Yes. It's like Drake London was awesome in 11 personnel. Bijon was awesome in 11 personnel. They got to set up the 12. They're playing at 14% of the time. Yeah. But when I eat healthy, I feel good, but that, you know what I mean? Oh yeah. It's not going to stop you. I always do it. No, no. Arthur. I'm the Arthur Smith of dietary choices. Arthur had a plan. Just in a quick, like if you're new to football, what that means, 11 personnel means one tight end and one running back, meaning that there's three wide receivers. And when you're in something like 12 personnel, it means you have two tight ends. So you have to remove a wide receiver. Yeah. And a lot of the times that correlates with kind of spreading the field out, creating more space versus being, if you're in 12 personnel, a couple tight ends, you're going to hit them in the mouth. Yeah. We're big tough guys. You're going to run it up the middle. So Bijon, you know, if you had to bet on opportunities this season to touch the football, Bijon, Breece, who's the bet on? I think I would bet on Bijon. It's really close. And the only reason I would bet on Bijon is because I think that there's going to be a lot more plays ran by the Falcons, the tempo, the speed, then what I'll see from the Jets. I think if you're talking percentage of backfield touches, it's probably Breece over Bijon because of the competition in that backfield. To me, this question really comes down to, and this is an interesting question, which offense is going to be better? We've got basically two brand new offices here because you've got two brand new quarterbacks for all intents and purposes. You've got Aaron Rogers and you've got two bad Achilles, the mere situation of these two teams with both they both have top three running backs. They both have the quarterback coming back from the Achilles. They both have a potential superstar wide receiver that we drafted in the same year that we haven't been able to see the fulfillment of that promise. It's like this is weird. So here we go. This is what my question is for you two gentlemen and myself, which offense scores more points, the Jets or the Falcons in 2024? I'm going to say the Falcons score more points, but that is a product of, you know, I think their defense is just far inferior to the Jets. 100%. I still think Tyler Ajir has a bigger impact than anybody behind Breeze, which is why I have Breeze a little bit higher. Yeah, I would agree. Which offense do you think scores more points? I think the Chiefs. I think it's, it might be the Falcons. I lean that side as well. So that, I mean, I get it. This is splitting hairs between these two guys and these are two guys the last two years I've been madly in love with coming out of college. So I don't want to make, I don't dynasty running backs. Yeah. Oh, it's so, I mean, it led you to a title last year, right? That was a bad joke. The people didn't like that. That was me. The people did not like that joke, Andy. All right. I'm going to, you know, in the suspense here. Number one, Christian McCaffrey comes in and number one in our rankings. So, you Christian McCaffrey know, I mean, pretty good player. Yeah. I mean, Christian McCaffrey is, you don't need, you don't need to talk about him. He's going to score more fantasy points than almost every running back every single week when he is healthy. So is he healthy? I mean, the problem is right now he's got the calf injury. He's taken about two weeks off. The reaggravation rate of a calf for running backs is not very high. Just make sure that you give him enough time to heal on. He knows, he knows his, his body. Oh, he is not like you, Andy. He is not like you. What's wrong with me? His dietary choices are this man is disciplined, like, like an insane person. He's not doing milkshakes and burgers. No, that wasn't just me. No, I know, but you just, you know, I was only milkshaking. Listen, you just talked about it. I did just talk about it. It's not good timing with what happened yesterday in the office. I went a week, I went a week on like no solid food after my, my dental surgery and you guys put five guys into the lunch menu and some things got away from me. You know what I mean? I'm on some drugs. I don't blame you, man. Milk shakes are delicious. I click different buttons. A lot of stuff showed up. I'm just saying Christian McCaffrey has not yet had a milkshake in his life. That's gotta be a fact. Right now. And so yeah, he's in tune with his body. I'm going to bet on him as, um, as the running back one. Did you guys realize like Christian McCaffrey of just like how far and away better he was than everybody else? That was his, that was his second best year. Oh yeah. Because that he has been better than that. Yeah. Last year, last year he had one game, one single game where he was not a top 15 running back and he was the 22. It was a great game. How many games in a row do you score a touchdown? Was it like 20? Um, I mean the streak was like, I think it was around 20. Kyle, do you remember? I don't. Yeah. It was, it was pretty much two years. They were trying to get in the record. Um, Brooks is, Brooks is letting us know now. Brooks moved to the Midwest. He just let us know that he's lost a little weight since leaving the office. No, no, that's great. I think ever. I'll have siphoned Brooks. Don't worry people. We want to keep Brooks as a part of this show. So we're siphoning Brooks and adding him to owl. Well, if you want it back, Brooks, I'm happy to give it back. We're just everything balance matter cannot be created or destroyed. We got to do something about the lighting and do such an alley. These guys wearing hats. They're just like their faces are just hidden. I mean, we got to get a, I think a table light that just blast them like a, like an old tiny police. You're saying, you know, like that he, he hides with the hat. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. I'm like, they're going to tell a ghost story. Sure. A ghost story or that they're going to tell the truth. You make them sweat under a hot light. Well, I think we should probably stop talking now. Uh, that is the end of today's episode. Uh, a reminder. Sleeper presents the 10th anniversary Megaloshow live in Los Angeles. You can come and see our bold predictions episode live Saturday, August 24th at the palace theater ballers live.com for tickets. Come and join us. That will be a great way to kick off the 2024 season. Like I said, we're going to have a bonus episode tomorrow. So check the feed and you will find a little treat. Good. Bye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.