NFL Picks Week 1 Ravens-Chiefs Thursday Night Football (9/5) | Lindy's NFL Locks

Intro what's going on everybody Eric linquist at stochastic here on the odd Trapper Channel coming to with the first edition of NFL Lindy's leans likes and locks hit the like button subscribe button notification Bell goes a long way for me on this video goes a long way for you that way you become a priz whenever great content is going live here at our Little Neck of the YouTube Woods uh obviously NFL season is upon us it's Thursday Night Football that we're covering first Baltimore at Kansas City we're doing things a little bit differently here on Lindy's this NFL season instead of the massive 4050 minute video that we would do on Fridays I'm going to be bringing you every single Island game in its entirety as its own program and uh if you followed me for a couple of years awesome you probably know how things work at this point in time but if not if this is your first time checking us out first off hit that subscribe button down below here join odd Shopper so you can check out all the great content whether it's Matt kesi and Ben rzza in the college football streets whether it's ly who I'm going to be doing some NFL content with be on the lookout for that but uh over here at odd Shopper and St gastic obviously our partner company you have an opportunity to win a lot of money in the NFL by tailing some really sharp Minds you can do that in The Insider Discord which I'll talk about a little bit later here as well but of course I'm going to break things down like this I concocted lean lean likes locks purely so that you have an opportunity to see what I like the most relative to what I don't because well let's face it some people don't allocate their unit sizing well enough and they just put the same amount of money on the same thing or they put too much of their bankroll into one specific Play here's how I generally do things on single games for this program we'll talk lean something I'm thinking about betting that I haven't yet a like that's generally something that's around half a unit when it's a regular program when I'm talking about all the likes on the baseball streets or in the NBA streets it's generally a half half unit for most of the things that I'm liking on that and then a lock that is generally a unit or more than I allocating of my bank roll so again unit sizing thinking about a 100 unit bank roll whatever ever that is for you whether that's a dollar whether that's $5 whether that's $100 whether that's $1,000 for some people you have an opportunity to utilize your bank roll correctly and manage it throughout the entire NFL season now let's face it the NFL you want to be betting early for the spreads in the totals you also want to be jumping on the props early but there's generally some news that's waiting in the wings so I'm generally going to be bringing you the most updated information by recording the night before or the morning of breaking down these Island slates and then Friday I record the biggie for Sunday where I cover everything on that main slate excluding Sunday Night Football so hopefully that made some sense to you if you have any questions hit me up at Eric linquist as we begin this new season I'm excited to talk some pig skin if you are too smash that like button and producer Jacob we'll talk about this use kickoff uh use code kickoff a little bit later I'm excited let's get to the pcks look at this Sleek blue with the green it's like a Seahawk green green and no well they're not playing here but we got Ravens vs Chiefs Baltimore at Kansas City just wanted to shout out I love the layout Baltimore plus 1100 over on the old Super Bowl odds plus 550 for Kansas City your odds on favorites because I don't know it seems like they win the you put a dollar and get a car put a dollar and get a car just Patrick Mahomes winning Super Bowls it's consistent as gravity we just saw them play San Francisco and it was lovely and well they overcame a lot of adversity I believe from last season first Off Taylor Swift seems like she's important people know who she is that that that's wild lot of people watching NFL shows and betting shows and other things that I didn't expect to be hearing from purely because Taylor Swift exists so that's cool it's a big distraction but also could be a welcome one for a lot of types of people but the second part the the thing that I'm not joking around nearly as much about is the wide receiver court is massively upgraded on the Kansas City side of things in Baltimore we'll get to in a second but just to lay the foundation for the team that people are most aware of you still have Mahomes still have Kelsey and you still have Rashi rice but this is a very difficult situation for him to walk into considering the defensive unit that is going to be on the other side now you did see a switch in defensive coordinator here old defensive coordinator took the CL Seahawks job so as he should Mike McDonald was awesome he was due for a head coaching job but looking at the Personnel here jaavan Clowney gone Gino Stone gone Ronald Derby gone Patrick Queen I think is on the Steelers now and just Mass massive changes that have happened up front here for this entire team but why is it difficult for Rashi rice well because Marlin Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton are just absolute Warriors these guys are quarterbacks you don't really want to screw with and it's ironic because we're going to talk about a wide receiver here in a little bit as for the Baltimore side of things Lamar Jackson we've gotten a lot of reports about how he's down in weight nearly 200 pounds now that's below where he was during the draft I think it was like 215 220 back in 2018 he's had some super MVP not Super Bowl MVP he would love that wouldn't he he's had some MVP caliber Seasons here and there he's been unbelievable then come playoff time people throw out the question marks but let's go a little bit easy on him here considering defensively Kansas City is no slouches themselves and they bring back a lot of their core pieces whereas you don't necessarily see that as much on the Baltimore side are they still going to be uh Stout defensively I surely expect it but let's not go crazy here break that one down and that leads me into the lean here I look at some of these spreads that have been out for 5 months 6 months in some cases and I don't know how you go to the window on Thursday and feel confident laying down your money but there is math that we can think about when it comes to betting NFL if you have three as the primary number and it drops to two and a half you have an opportunity to play Vig free with the tie on three what I mean by that is I think that there are scenarios where we we see some money come in on Baltimore in the aftermath of Hollywood Brown being ruled out we'll see Kansas City I I think pretty much everybody else is ready to rock rashy rice did not get suspended uh for some of his off field incidents that he had over the summer but I'm looking at the board for tomorrow and the total 47 a half 47 47 and a half I see really no way that I'm going to attack anything on these week one spreads because they've been out forever and in the NFL they are the most efficient thing because bookmakers know they take way more money on these specific games than they do the rest of the season in any other sport besides like I don't know the NBA Finals at times or you know Christmas Day for the NBA which is now going to be Christmas Day for the NFL too but I'm looking at plus three Baltimore purely for the event that a bunch of money comes in before kickoff because that's when you see a lot of this money come in from the public and it dips it down to two and a half so if you have to be making a play on this I like Baltimore plus three and if you prefer one side of it that two and a half and three that half Point can be so valuable when you're talking about the minus 110 vigorish there's a lot of math there's a lot of ways that we can break it down I'll break it down for you in that Marketplace if you have questions you can hit me up down at the link below again promo code Lindy 50 that gets you 50% off daily picks premium Discord look at that producer Jacob just firing it up on command I will talk you through why it is that I'm looking at that plus three and how I think it could be advantageous to either be on the Kansas City or Baltimore side but I repeat extremely efficient numbers all righty y'all let's get to the like play shall we let's get to some actual plays that I'm interested in and obviously been grading out these plays for a long time but redid my modeling over the offseason because NFL between all of the sports that I did for Lindy including including PGA which I don't do anymore uh at the moment still betting PGA on my own still posting some plays from time to time much earlier in the season this year but between NFL NBA and MLB I don't think anybody who's tailed me is super enthusiastic about my betting results from the NFL I was up just under 25 units over the course of 2023 during 2024 during the playoffs I had a nice string of plays couple of single game parlays that hit was a little up over 10 units at the tail end of the year but 25 units over the course of four months I'm looking for some improvement because basically I could go you know Drive Uber which is a fantastic profession by the way just saying I could do a lot of things with my time and energy and money and make more money and have a higher Roi on my life than what I did betting not obviously this is an enjoyable experience in the NBA smash my my best sport personally I believe my MLB results have been better over the course of the last year and a half a lot of people telling me here but did some updates to some modeling so that I can account for different markets which leads me into Xavier worthy I think you have to look at range of outcomes for a guy like Xavier worthy he was the first round pick ends up getting a trade from Buffalo Kansas City goes up and gets a 421 Speedster we're talking the fastest 40 time in the history of the NFL combine is going to be on the field for the best quarterback that we've seen in the modern era that is Patrick Mahomes you can talk about anybody else you can't really dispute that Patrick Mahomes results have been outrageous and his efficiency outrageous and I would say the wide receiver Corp talked about it a second ago rashy rice he really emerged but he barely played around 58 59% of snaps over the course of his rookie year towards the tail end of the year Andy Reed ized the error of his ways and started shoving him out on the field and part of that cadarius Tony was a stone cold disaster number 19 rip he's gone no longer with this football team we'll see if some other team ends up taking a shot on him I don't believe I've seen news come across on kadar's Tony he's not even on the practice squad but I do think Xavier Worthy is going to have a lot of opportunities to get deep shots from Patrick Mahomes and I can't think of a better person to be airing it out in this specific style offense now Rashi rice dominates the middle of field will be running a lot of his cross patterns Travis same kind of area trying to get him out wide Andy Reed one of the best play callers in football you're telling me that we're going to get 40 well no I got did the math 60 Minutes I almost did 48 for NBA but 60 Minutes of NFL football and we're not going to get one deep shot one deep shot to Xavier worthy maybe too guy was getting open non-stop in practice which I would expect from a 4-2 guy but I'm telling you Xavier Worthy is going to absolutely slam Dunes over the course of this NFL season and I'm not a big Xavier worthy guy I think he's got some inconsistent hands watching some tape with him at Texas I have questions about him is he still going to be perfect for this offense I absolutely do because it used to be mvs running those win Sprints and Justin Watson who will still be out there and obviously with no Hollywood Brown on the field I'm going to expect some of those looks Noah gray maybe in some of those 12 Personnel type looks but xaver Worthy is definitely going to be where I start this thing but that is not all friends oh no no no no no no was rerunning some stuff on the other side of this one and let's talk uh yeah let's talk what we could be potentially looking at on the Baltimore offensive side of things no improvements to wide receiver 2 none whatsoever Z flowers had some bright spots over the course of his 2023 24 intro to the NFL but his sophomore season it's going to still have to be that guy Mark Andrews will be on the field obviously can he stay healthy that would be awesome his receiving yard looks about efficient might look a little low to some sitting like sub 50 but it is what it is I I'm looking at the median a lot more than I'm looking at the mean for some of these props and that's going to be something you hear a lot from me in the NFL because it matters so much and that's where Rashad baitman comes in Rashad baitman had really good and everybody gets really good hype up over the course of uh training camp but you got Lamar Jackson coach speak basically Lamar Jackson coming to the Forefront wasn't even Harbaugh throwing out there letting him know that Rashad baitman is somebody he is going to be looking for and as you go through this defensive front that he will be facing in this game I think that if they can somehow someway withstand some of the pressure from Jones from some of the edge rushing I think we're going to see a pretty good opportunity for Rashad baitman to get the easier looks Z flowers not very high on him for this game specifically purely with the Personnel that you're going to see on the uh whether it's Watson on the outside but McDuffy I expect to be all over Flowers it's going to be a tough spot for him which should open up a little bit of work for Nelson aalor in the slap this specifically we're keying in on Watson potentially Reed on the other side of that not the best coverage safety and Justin Reed has had some good years in the past 2022 specifically is PFF grading pretty nice but Rashad baitman over 30 and a half receiving yards before we get to the lock of course stochastic let's fire this up shall we use code kickoff I'm going to be talking you through the NFL for every one of these showdowns giving you the ins and outs giving you a d uh data analytical approach well that's exactly what we bring to the fantasy football table as well specifically daily fantasy sports if you're playing DraftKings in the Millie maker or fand wolf for some of their massive contests for week one use code kickoff to get all of that data including Advanced stats and metrics which you can use for the betting markets for just $1 $1 to try out anything that we have in terms of light and core subscriptions build lineups in seconds check out the single game Optimizer so much to do so little time sign up for the uh down at the link below using Code kickoff all righty y'all let's get to the lock shall we now we've seen Travis Kelce with this Kansas City team forever you have pretty historical efficient prices I think we know what we're going to be dealing with there but let's go back to Baltimore because Baltimore plus three I'm kind of looking at them not that I'm want to back them as the talk I'm just basically trying to take advantage of that three two and a half we'll see where that line moves I haven't pulled the trigger on anything there but it's a thought and I'm looking at the math of it trying to see if that's something that I can do a lot of professional betters a lot of people are looking between two and a half and three that have is so much value has so much value attached to it relative to other things but let's break down Derrick Henry shall we the Baltimore Ravens acquire one of the most generational talents that we've seen in the NFL a downhill bull rusher should fit exactly what they're looking for he does what Gus Edwards did he does what JK domond would have done if he didn't get sniped by the injury bug in back-to-back years he is just better at it than them he has a Down Hill Bruiser and he had a crazy workload over the course of his tennessy T year but I want to talk you through a couple of things because I don't think we know exactly what we're walking into in terms of third Downs with Baltimore it is presumed with the departure of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins that we are going to see Justice hill come in for third down specifically behind them you have the guy in Keat Mitchell who's going to be out for this game he's on the reserve pup list so he's got to be out at least the first four games of this outing and then he worked through the rest of the right running back room and it gets really really dusty I doubt John Kelly Jr is going to be activated here in this spot you're looking at guys like justice Hill who potentially could be like one of two or three running backs that are active obviously you have some special teamers who can do some stuff here as well but I don't think it's a guaranteed that Justice Hill plays as much as we think here once again Tennessee that's how they treated Derrik Henry that's the way that they approach Derrick Henry over the course of his tenure you rip him off the field you put Taj sharp in working through week ones this is an opportunity for misdirection for new things to come out of the playbooks and to see how new players fit in in their rules I think there's a chance that Derrick Henry ends up on the field for third Downs more than we think in this first game you show off your Shiny Toy you get him moving and including you know his Tennessee tenure there are some good Trends and I'm not a Trends guy by any means but I am a usage guy and four of the five weak ones that Derrick Henry played in Tennessee he eclipsed double digit receiving yards his receiving yards prop for this game is at 6 and2 6 and half minus 120 at bet MGM now we're talking about the median outcome as opposed to what that ceiling is cu 40 yards 50 yards when you're betting this six and a half it does the same for you as getting to seven or eight the same time you're looking at the floor what is the floor relative to it so you can do your mean projections but you got to look at that median but I've got that median north of 10 yards here in this spot because I am projecting him for a little bit more third down work than I believe the market consant is throwing out there if you have Derrick Henry if he's doing all right in pass Pro and well I think he's going to do all right on the ground considering Kansas City gave up the seventh most yards per carry seven and a half per game I think Derrick Henry is somebody they want on the field to try to establish that run early and often think we're looking at this being a fantastic investment at just minus 120 again hitting 6263 % of the time for me that is a slam dunk I do have a unit on this one my favorite play from this game it's actually the last play that I added to my card from this game Derk Henry over six and a half receiving yards I'll see you back here for Friday in Brazil and that does it for the first edition of Lindy's leans lights and locks on The Showdown streets on these isolated island games hit that like button subscribe button notification Bell I'm excited to bring you more NFL content more geared towards data more geared towards looking at the market in addition to my projections combining the two and finding you some winners on this program so let's get off to a great start here in 2024 thank you producer Jacob he's alongside me in the NFL streets as well all with six six months that we ran MLB out here oh my goodness it's good to talk another sport sport hopefully you enjoyed it as well check out stochastic check out Lindy 50 down below too if you want to get all of my plays for this game and the entire weekend I have more posted already for week one come get them over in that Insider uh Marketplace at odd Chopper until next time friends I'm Eric linquist best of luck in the NFL streets on Thursday Night Football