NFL Picks Week 1 Rams-Lions Sunday Night Football (9/8) | Lindy's NFL Locks

Intro what's going on everybody Eric linquist at stochastic here on the a chopper Channel coming to you with a Sunday Night Football edition of NFL Lindy leans likes and locks hit that like button subscribe button notification Bell goes a long way for me on this video goes a long way for you that way you become a priz whenever great content is going live here at our Little Neck of the YouTube Woods we have started out hot on this video obviously the derck Henry thing we should have gone Justice Hill but either way it has been a really nice start here on Lindy's if you have been tailing every single play here 5- one feels good to start off in the win column the leans neither one of those on the last two videos uh ended up coming to fruition we ended up shorting the crap out of Dave nonavian Wicks he ended up on the field right around what 40 45% of snaps and unom catches he had a big fat zero so that helped because we took the under of that we took the under of the receiving yards anywh who that was Friday this is Sunday Night Football and boy do we have a game shootout potential between the Rams and the Detroit Lions I'm going to talk you through the ins and outs of what I'm seeing here have a couple of likes again this is just kind of the way that it's worked out where the lean probably not going to be a play for me at this point the likes well there's two of them and a lock that I'm absolutely in love with I think there is a massive game coming from somebody in this one but of course $1 if you want to use code kickoff get yourself the light and core subscriptions here at stochastic uh fantasy goodness all the way around if you're playing Sunday night football showdown if you're playing Monday night football showdown tons of tools and content obviously this is getting released here on Sunday morning right after the main slate locked I'm sitting here watching it on my iPad at the same time that I'm giving you the information so sign up do me a solid obviously $1 $1 to get all of that goodness if you're playing DraftKings FanDuel for uh fantasy tonight check it out all righty y'all without further Ado let's get to the picks boy am I excited Rams vs Lions for this we are running back a playoff game from last season the divisional round Rams Lions I'm excited are you excited I'm excited but I'm kind of excited but I'm just saying it's going to be an awesome one puka AA Cooper cup everybody's talking about uh the the the Rams passing attack here both of those guys top two rounds for Fantasy purposes and Detroit holy crap are they stockpiled with absolute Talent everywhere am and Rob the the sun god St Brown sitting there on the outside in the slot you can go anywhere that he wants you got Jameson Williams potentially a fantasy sleeper for the people deep Target obviously Alabama he was the number one there once upon a time had the knee injury in that SEC Championship game that ended up sending his professional career off to a weird start but starting to see the snaps progress I'm so excited to see him tonight and then somebody that we will feature here later on this PR in the lock department but 4 and a half 4 and a half is where we're sitting here and I think that that is about appropriate however as I'm talking through this I'm just just get this out of the way right from the get-go because well I want these minute videos to be under 10 minutes so I can get you the information Detroit one of the most popular teams that people are betting in the Super Bowl as they should they have the most Stout stacked offensive line in the National Football League I would put them as the 1A i' probably put the Eagles around 1B with my lad and some of those other pieces but as I work through through everything on this offensive line for for the Detroit Lions yeah I do think they can do whatever they want offensively they absolutely paay Jared goth he is fitting the quote unquote culture of this team for Dan Campbell and company and he does it to a te you have David Montgomery shout out Iowa State how about that Iowa Iowa Iowa State duel shawk trophy going back to ases as it should you guys don't care about that let's go back to the NFL but we absolutely love this offensive line I absolutely love this offensive line for the Detroit Lions they are stacked with Decker Glasgow uh Penny seaall and and Center Frank ragn now probably my favorite Center in all of football which it's weird to have a favorite Center but when you do this for a living and you do this on a day in day out basis you start to get familiar with these guys they become like family especially when you have D and Montgomery going for like two three four touchdown games over the course of last season and he was my fantasy sleeper it felt really good to be right about that however jir Gibbs that is going to be a big question as far as how that running game ends up going back and forth between the two of them you want to keep Gibbs first round draft Equity you want to keep him healthy keep him on Bubble rep I think you want to keep him involved and David Montgomery I think you want to have him eat up some of those carries between the tackles that otherwise you know might run into some issues for Gibbs because Gibbs is so special on the passing game that's where you really want to be utilizing him on a day and day out basis and really I'm harping on everything there because if you compare their offensive line up against the defensive line of these Los Angeles Rams you have no Aaron darnold you have no uh real anything I mean Florida State seminal Braden fisky going to be out there on the uh left Edge there for them it's going to be weird seeing him and Jared verse have to start and play like every single down now they played together at Florida State they have tons of familiarity with each other but trying to get after right tackle Penny sea wall is not for the light-hearted he is potentially my favorite tackle my favorite offensive lineman in all of football again weird to have one but he can pull he can do everything that you want for an offensive lineman and he'll be lining up next to Sam leapor who is very very important to me in this football game what I'm getting at is I don't think the Rams defense is very good at all I think they're going to actually be downright pitiful they're going to be starting three rookies Josh Wallace in the aform mention verson fisky and then you're going to be looking at a secondary that consists of Cameron curl whose you know pass rush grade is just absolutely terrible coming in on Blitz packages you have Quinton Lake who I think is going to be pretty getable as well somebody who uh from the cornerback position struggled at times last year before figuring it out especially important in that run defensive scheme as they come up to the line of scrimmage but when you're starting another another guy in travius white on the outside alongside verse visy Wallace I mean this is just such a weird football team for me to be grading and I would be going towards the Detroit side if I had to lean towards any part of this football game so we start things off in the lean Department if you want to pick a side I find it hard coming off of the rematch obviously it was a competitive game an enjoyable game puku went nuts which we'll get to next but I think Detroit is the right side of this one so I lean Detroit minus four and a half Al righty y'all let's get to the actual picks but first if you guys are looking at joining odd Shopper we have the portfolio EV live we have tails live you can sign up for my Marketplace we'll get to that here in a second but portfolio EV promo code kickoff same kickoff code that we have going for the fantasy side at stochastic on odd Shopper we have the portfolio EV that is giving comparing all of the markets all of the sports books you have available in your state and giving you access to it again for less than a dollar a day portfolio the 70% off use code kickoff at the link below and then if you want to get my plays the entire card from this game and likening 50% off your first week code Lindy 50 currently my package is going for $20 a week $50 for a month but 10 bucks for your first week 25 for your first month if you sign up at the link below with code Lindy 50 would love to see you there all righty y'all let's get to some picks shall we let's begin the program a lot of pleasantries talking you through some of the ins and outs and some of the things that I'm noticing because for me I do mathematical modeling I absolutely love spreadsheets and I love trying to sim out games and trying to figure out different ways of how these teams line up and I want to start actually on the pukaa receiving yard side of things here in terms of discussing the likes I wrote them in the wrong order for my friend uh producer Jacob who was with me throughout MLB he'll be with me throughout the NFL season this year but but I look at pukaa and he was somebody that if you watched NFL Lindy's last season I was very high on coming into the season purely because Sean McVey does not start important players to his scheme or to anything rookies specifically in the preseason and when poona did not play a snapa preseason and they were basically making up reasons for him to be hurt and yet he was practicing in full every day something stood out to me and that was that he was probably really really good now Cooper cup was also dinged up to start off the season did it help him starting off that on the road in Seattle spot in week one and progress into the season it sure freaking did but now you get both of them active and we're starting to get a couple of reduced rates on a sophomore season here for pukan AA I compare some of his receiving props to Justin Jefferson sitting north of 80 up against the New York Giants you had Tyreek Hill sitting around 100 98 and a half 99 and a half against Jacksonville here for week one why is puka AA being drastically undersized considering the Run rates that we're expecting here for this football team now it is week one we have to kind of make some educated stance some educated guesses about what we're exactly dealing with but I think we're dealing with a team in the uh in the Los Angeles Rams that really want to spread the football around I'm projecting them right around 61 62% of the time in terms of pass plays relative to run plays Kiren Williams very strange to have him uh you know be the guy who's listed as the return kicker now it's Blake Corum that's going to potentially be returning kickoffs and punts again punts specifically I believe looking at that uh looking at that first string report but the what am I trying to think of death chart there we go that was the word I was looking for but the word I'm looking for here for pukaa is special we saw him really excel in this exact matchup last time around absolute wagon of a human being and I don't think a lot has changed for the BYU product it's his second season he has Matt Stafford who my God could you have gotten more glowing reviews from guys like CJ straford uh CJ straford C DJ Stroud on Matt Stafford I combined the names and I do think that puku is in for a huge workload yet again 114 catches over 1500 yards last season seven tutes in this same match up nine for 10 181 yards and a tutty last season he did have a fumble that was a little bit drastic and obviously this game was close 24-23 but I do think he continues to excel in this matchup so the one part that I am bullish on and the one part that's keeping me away from betting Detroit is his presence because he can do just about anything that they ask of him in this matchup and the guy's lining up opposite of him you're going to get a rookie in terion Arnold I don't know where he necessarily plays on the field but looking at some of the schematics in Alabama I think we're going to see him probably line up more on the side of like Demarcus Robinson wide receiver three and they'll probably go more towards Carlton Davis who's 61206 just a little bit heavier frame than tyon Arnold who generally plays around 190 195 I I think that that's going to be kind of the matchup we're looking at so I'm very bullish on that but I also want to talk about this with jir Gibbs potentially playing more snaps there's more passing game involvement and you look at some of the projections across the entire industry for a guy like jro gof I think we're going to see more passing this time around and hey it was competitive 43 passing attempts against uh the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41 against San Francisco both of those being negative game scripts until they weren't but the RAM specifically only 27 pass attempts last time out against them they were able to get up early often and establish the Run they were able to kind of get a lot done there and the Rams talked about how getable they are on that defensive side but for week one the number of weapons that they have and jir Gibbs being on the field more than like 35 40% like he was early on in his career and obviously he was dealing with hamstring injuries and dealt with a hamstring injury uh during the preseason here I like over of passing attempts I've currently got him around 37 pass attempts this isn't a market that I go to very often so if I'm giving it a vote of confidence you should know that it's probably a pretty good bet so Jared gof over 33 and a half passing attempts and puka AA over 73 and a half receiving yards obviously this total has been B up from 51 to 53 53 and a half now I'm seeing there should be points expected and as such I expect some more passing attempts than the mark Market currently does uh based on the prop numbers that don't line up with a 53 and a half total for me all right y'all before we get to the lock my favorite play and it's definitely my favorite play of this game check out bet 365 it's available in Pennsylvania now as well as a ton of other great States we're talking Kentucky New Jersey Arizona Iowa so many places if you have bet 365 they upgraded their deal from $150 to $200 in bonus bets that you get when you bet $5 at the link below this is one of the most reputable Sports books internationally as well as here stat side so check them out as they expand their presence in the states be sure to sign up and take advantage some really advantageous l including the one we're about to talk at uh this is where I ended up getting this one this is where you want to be getting this one so without further Ado producer Jacob why don't we get to the lock shall we uh it's only if you're 21 and over if you have a gambling problem please call 1 1800 Gambler we broke down the ins and outs of the offensive line and how strong I feel it is from the Detroit Lions side they will still be running the football and yet I think 33 and a half pass attempts attempts is too low here for Jared gof pukaa over 73 and a half receiving yards I am playing in the same way the Market has it's been bit up from 51 to 53 and a half but a prop is my lock here in this one for sure and it is my favorite play uh it's like second or third favorite play of the week and I love that under of Dallas and Cleveland so hey if you want to play uh armchair quarterback there on your side of the screen let me know how I did on that one we'll see I had an under 44 ticket for what it's worth in addition to double dipping there at 41 and a half at even money but we are going to the lock Department my friends on a guy in Sam lorta Iowa's finest it's kind of become like tight end uish or tight end U adjacent South Dakota State really though Dallas got number of other pieces that are looking nice for the draft in future years but we're going to get ahead of ourselves Sam lorta he is pretty much routinely in every single draft across every single person the first tight end off the board a lot of people selecting him before Kelsey a lot of people before concade before McBride Sam loraa a lot is expected of him here and think about some of these defensive pieces that are missing specifically here on Donald on the defensive side the Rams defense I think is terrible horrible absolutely no good in fact only one player Kobe Turner with any decent PFF grade they're going to be starting three rookies they add travius white trying to shore things up but since 2017 I think outside of coverage grade everything else is a little bit overrated for him you're looking at Christian Rose boom who's going to be sitting in the middle of that absolutely awful to say the very least about his coverage and then Jake hmel sitting there in the middle of that field the middle of the field for Alan rossing Brown out of the slot and Sam La pora is gigantic the opportunity for them in this spot is gigantic however Alman raw sitting there north of Haiti everywhere I'm not going to be touching that one in any way shape or form because there's a lot of game scripts where they do get ahead where potentially going to lose the passing attemp although again I I think neutral game scripts in this one we still see him exceed that Mark comes down to price and probability at the end of the day and considering we're looking at B MGM that at minus 120 I'm happy to be laying that vid considering you know I've got it closer to 61% 60% but this one I have way different s La pora is listed at 53 and a half receiving yards now when you're talking about props and something I'm going to bring up a lot during the course of this program is I have mean projections I generally use those for my fantasy purposes but when it comes to the betting side of things and I'm betting props and that is Prim arily what I like to do in the NFL I'm hammering home median projections I'm trying to turn everything I can into what is the median number because you look at over a thousand yards receiving 107 receptions from him last season there were obviously a lot of up and down games against these Rams last season only three catches for 14 yards did have a touchdown to go with it but I think that's kind of baked into this line performance against a team how did they scheme against them well Sam laor should have a massive opportunity coming off of 11 and 13 Targets in games that mattered last season specifically I'm looking at the playoffs playoffs talking about playoffs Tampa Bay s Fran we saw him a massive part of those game scripts a massive important part of those game scripts I think most of the time this season we're going to see an increase to his Target share because they realized they had a good one very early on in that season five targets six targets 11 Targets in weeks one two and three respectively I have to bring up his Target share coming off of 147 Targets in 2023 I have to bring up his receiving props 53.3 yards per game there over the course of last season and don't forget he was dinged up he got dinged up in week 18 coming into those playoffs I think this Rams number is a little bit misleading because another week later against Tampa 11 targets I mean we're talking about somebody that that is his role in this offense to be peppered in the middle of the field and that's I think the Rams are the most exploitable give me all day Sam lorta over 53 and a half receiving yards minus 110 at bet 365 as well as a bunch of alternate numbers that I'm going to be betting Sam leaport 75 plus 100 plus I'm in love with Sam leaport I think he has an unbelievable game so do not look at last year's week 18 box score his health was in question and everybody was yelling at Dan Campbell about that one but huh looked pretty good there in those last two I think that is his role a massive year incoming stay healthy Sam leaport you got this and that does it for another edition of Lindy's leans likes and locks in The Showdown streets of course hit that like button subscribe button notification Bell let me know your favorite plays we're going to try to get this video out to the people because well this game starts in just over six and a half hours want you to get this information and hey uh hit the like button on the way out that goes a long way for me as well as $1 $1 to sign up using Code kickoff down below for the fantasy side over at stochastic if you want to check out the portf folio EV 70% off using promo code kickoff both of those live so much goodness to sign up for so little time thank you producer Jacob until next time friends I'm Eric linquist best of luck on Sunday Night Football for Rams lions