Week 2 College Football Picks & Predictions 2024 | Betting U

Week 2 College Football Picks & Predictions all right we're back in Action week two college football odd Chopper Best Bets previews breakdowns BigTime games Ben razza maaj jesi I got it all out of the way now we're here to talk about what went on in week one and of course set the stage for what's going to be a very interesting week two slate there's a lot of Big Time games we're GNA dive into it right now I want to welcome everyone in here we go sir we'll look backwards in just a second but there's real real serious matchups in this week too slate yeah there's a lot of them that are pretty good and nonon I don't remember a year where we've just had weeks where there's at least like six or seven good games like this yep it's they's still the FCS FBS games but there's actually a lot of really good matchups this week as there was last week no doubt about it and speaking of last week uh it was somewhat uneventful for me I'll be honest the FCS games really really helped save me uh South Florida Tulsa a couple of these egregious games bolstered the win total I ran hot late had USC had the under Boston College uh and that that scr scratched me back to slight profitability because my favorite bet of the whole week was UMass they did not play well which which broke my heart to be honest that was a tough one we have to repent for our sins for recommending UMass they just don't have it I think man like I don't I didn't dive into that box score yet as you can tell I'm really far behind this week from moving on Sunday and then not having my internet work right away so take everything I say with a Grandin assault I haven't even looked at all these games from last week yet but UMass was a disaster I recommended Yukon that was a disaster that team got absolutely throttled by Maryland so the Northeast not showing up I had an under in Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt I don't know what is going on with Virginia Tech's defense but that option attack that Vanderbilt ran really gave them some problems I had Jacksonville State against Coastal Carolina which was a mess and I had an over in South Carolina Old Dominion South Carolina apparently cannot throw a forward pass and then candy on top I added Wisconsin at the last second when Western Michigan ruled out their number one receiver and the backers under Luke quickle continued to not be able to cover spreads that was the bad stuff there there were some good things too Northwestern got it done against Miami Ohio had an under and LSU USC ended up taking a really really bad line I don't know what was going on on Monday night or Sunday night excuse me if the public was just hammering and over remembering last year but I mean that score should have been even lower the tyen lazyy touchdown should have been an interception achil Arnold just completely lost the ball in the air that should not have been a score and from there Boston College against Florida state had that from the previous week Miami rolled UNLV rolled pit rolled Ken Kentucky they beat Southern missing the game they didn't even finish they decided to cancel it early and then North Texas but it was still an 11 and 13 week lost a lot of the close games that were on my card you know like Georgia and Clemson had an over there if Clemson scores you know like a point that goes over Georgia definitely did their part same thing with Texas Colorado State Texas almost got there on their own Colorado State couldn't even score you know like can you get a point maybe we get there Minnesota missing two field goals including a gamewinner against North Carolina I mean those are the Tilt worthy games I think but if you ran the week back all in all I probably finish around 500 which is basically where I was so disappointing but we look forward yeah long season and I I I caught a nice run on Saturday after UMass Kenesaw got there for me Miami got there for me uh had a few others Arkansas State again FCS opponent they looked pretty crisp A&M hurt there's no doubt that was probably my worst bet of the week forgot about that one that was that was just a stupid game uh Wegman was awful and I did not think that but you know what like I said all in all I'm I'm actually feeling pretty good about it but let's get into these games here we go hit the like button let's run it up we're going one Friday game then we're getting to the Big Time games no that's not the schedule but I'm gonna bring it up okay here we go duke and Northwestern two and a half point spread it was pretty similar last week you talked about it Miami of Ohio is not a joke so you got to give Northwestern some credit there Duke played Elon I watched that game uh for reasons unknown they didn't look super competent their defense looked good their offense looked sluggish what do you think about this matchup here yeah they're elon's a pretty good FCS team they were 18th in the country in the preseason polls which I mean you shouldn't be messing around with the number 18 FCS team at all but we had concerns with Duke coming into the year and I still have them I don't think their quarterback's very good when he had to step in at Texas last year this is Malle Murphy we're talking about and he had the NFL receivers in tight ends I mean we're talking about like Xavier worthy and elite players at his pass catching positions he did absolutely nothing with them he has actually really disappointing when he came on the field and played with those guys so now he goes to a worse situation with a really bad offensive line like an offensive line that returned one player and they did not have a good showing in that first game when you look at where so I'll talk about some efficiency metrics I kind of just want to qualify it it's a one game sample I'm trying not to overreact when you look at these efficiency metrics is basically did it shock you was there something that egregiously stood out and the offensive line for Duke did shock me they came in 103d in pass blocking and 128th in run blocking it's against an FCS team now you're playing Northwestern who basically has everybody returning on defense they had a couple injuries in their most recent game but I think they're going to get back some of their players or ADI is going to be back in a timely manner according to a quote we'll see on him but this is still a defense that has nine starters returning they added two transfers at linebacker to fill the void it's very good defense we saw him shut down the best team in the max offense not that they play fast or anything but still a better data point than what Duke faced and then on the Duke defense this team they looked good against an FCS team yes but they still only returned six starters and only one in their front seven well what does Northwestern do they changed OC's they have the former South Dakota State OC coming in the offense is like a 30% pass rate at this point you're leaning on this offensive line you're leading on cam Porter and Mike Wright who is a dual threat quarterback played at multiple schools now and you got two stud tight ends that are good blockers really only replace one offensive lineman because of the transfers they brought in I think Northwestern has success running the ball and I'm not sure Duke has any offensive success the entire year with Malik Murphy underachieving behind a horrific offensive line not to mention his pass catches are awful outside of Jordan Moore so I'm actually on Northwestern in this game and I'm willing to play this up to three I have a two and a half right now yep there's two and a halfs out there pushing a little juice uh minus 118 on DraftKings again you can just straight shop this right on odd Chopper uh I couldn't find anything better than that but I'm with you it's Northwestern a pass I haven't bet this game but I might bet Northwestern in this I I was not impressed with Duke I told you it's one game I don't want to overreact but they did not look super competent against Elon and northwestern's defense really should provide some serious challenges it's no surprise that this total is in the dumpster it's at 36 and a half and that might be too honestly too high yeah I don't have any push back on that to be honest with you let's get to the you Texas vs. Michigan Prediction know there's a lot of big games but I'm not sure it gets any bigger than this Texas and Michigan it's you know a clash that we're GNA have to get used to no doubt about it really cool stuff here it's crossed uh to seven and a half there were some six and a halfs out there and I missed them like an idiot because I do like the Texas side of this game haven't done anything with it but it's definitely the Longhorns that have me interested in I know that Colorado State's not a juggernaut but man I didn't expect it to be like that to be honest and Michigan was a little sluggish but they are in the big house here how do you see this and do you think Texas is the decisive favorite I do think Texas is the decisive favorite going off what we saw last week really disappointed in Michigan against Fresno State a team they maybe shouldn't handle but should beat pretty clearly and this is another spot where I have a few concerns coming out of Michigan's week one game from an efficiency perspective they were 109th in pass blocking against Fresno State who's you know a decent Mountain West team but what was the biggest concern with Michigan coming into the season well it's basically their entire offense so what did they do they have no starters back on the offensive line they had just one transfer Josh PRI who wasn't even good at the previous stop you change quarterbacks and they're playing behind this egregious offensive line first of all so they they need to be given at least you know a little bit of credit because this team a lot 25% pressure rate against Fresno State which was awful but Davis Warren and Alex orgy in the brief time we saw him both played terribly in this game Warren 60% completion percentage for 4.7 yards per attempt no big time throws one turnover worthy play negative n yards rushing because of some Zachs he took again that's on the o line but what they did on the offense is basically just negligence in my opinion because of the offense they run they've been hemorrhaging fourstar receivers that they formerly recruited so your receivers had three drops like you started Kendrick Bell Tyler Morris samage Morgan the entire passing game is Colston Loveland so if you stop one guy you basically stop the entire Michigan offense because this team also was really bad running the ball you look at what Donovan Edwards did the guy who's supposed to be you know your offensive stud he had an awful game khil mullings the former defensive player just straight up outplayed Donovan Edwards 15 for 92 for Cleo mullings versus 11 for 27 for Donovan Edwards that's your best offensive player just having a terrible day now the defense is good for this team but you have to match up against a Texas offense which has a lot of Firepower so they did lose all the receivers yes but unlike Michigan this team goes and backfills you bring in Matthew golden Silas Balin Isaiah Bond Amari nblack plus those recruits that Michigan's been hemorrhaging year-over-year Texas hasn't lost them you still have jont cook Deandre more Ryan Wingo there's more players in the depths there too and their running backs did play well jadden blue Jerick Gibson they have a lot of options here on offense their old line is one of the best in the country four starters back so I think you just have a vast difference in offensive talent for these two teams with two defenses that are pretty good the only hesitation I have this Texas front is still a little untested you know you lose the NFL players and you face Colorado state who's an air raid so they haven't really been tested up front but they did have two players back that had a lot of time in rotation last year you brought in two transfers Bill Norton is an absolute monster like sizewise of a human being inside from Arizona and it's a one-dimensional offense all you have to do is stack the box and you basically stop Michigan's offense because they don't have a quarterback who could throw or receivers that could catch if you can find a seven I like this I would be interested in an under just because Michigan's defense is also extremely good and probably can limit some of what Texas wants to do but it's Texas or pass under pass for me I'm gonna add one small thing uh I don't do a ton of this but I think it's at times can be very lucrative and a good strategy I like Texas as a moneyline parl piece at minus 270 it's crossed minus 300 out of a lot of books minus 270 is a good number I think they comfortably win this game easily could land on seven easily could be a close game but I I do like Texas in this spot uh so if you want to link them up with someone else you can bring it down to minus 11 10 probably plan to do that I did that already with a couple other games and I think Texas belongs in that mix uh battle for there is a name of this that eludes me I think it's likey Cyclone cyhawk Battle of the shawk Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction trophy Iowa State and Iowa every time these two Play It's just complete bananas uh and I'm sure that's going to be the case here it's a three-point spread I would I mean they had an offensive explosion against Illinois state for them they gave up their normal amount of no points Iowa state was messing around with an FCS school as well these are two teams that I really believe both are very talented this year it's gonna be a great game do you have an angle here very interesting game I usually like betting the underdog in these greasy games y but I think it comes down to two things first Iowa state has two linebackers out of this game what does that M mean to the defense defense Caleb bacon was their best player on defense last year even though he was more of a rotational player only 346 snaps and then will mcclaflin he was an average linebacker last year but he's still out so you're down basically your top three guys from last year because Jerry vaugh graduated that's a big hole in your defense can Iowa exploit exploit this it is the biggest question of the week probably because they have the same exact offense back all they did was change their play caller and I don't have the answer to this there's a lot of concerning play from Iowa in week one their offensive line was okay they were still only the 83rd in run blocking which is very concerning because Illinois state is not a good FCS team you know we talked about you know Duke facing a defense that was decent and an FCS team that was decent Iowa didn't play that and I don't know if this offense can take advantage of Iowa State their personnel is straight up bad Kade mcnamer he was like a bottom 20 quarterback in efficiency last year his receivers top 10 in drop percentage in the country so does adding a new OC fix all those problems their offensive line was atrocious last year they brought a lot of guys back but Iowa State's defense is also very good was the strength of their team and aside from the linebackers they have every single player back on defense their secondary was good upfront they're very good so even with a linebacker injuries you still have a lot of players up front on your defensive line with experience we know what I was going to do play good defense themselves but I think the edges are very close here Iowa State for sure has the offensive Advantage especially passing the ball those receivers Jayden Higgins and jayen noell had an awesome week one Ben brahmer at tight end all five offensive lineman back just can they get enough points against Iowa and I think this is probably going to come down to whoever makes a mistake it's a low-scoring game environment but if you can take a three that's where I like it even with the linebacker injuries yeah spreads are bouncing around there is a three at minus 115 right now uh it's come down a little bit I think that's where I lean to not my favorite game you it's a 35 point total uh points are going to be at a premium it's a rivalry game I tend to also side with the dog in this one but this is not one of those lopsided ranked first unranked style where one of the teams is great and the other's bad I I don't know honestly I don't I'm not a firm believer that Iowa has somehow transform their offense I think far from it it's one data point against a bad FCS team so uh not the game for me to be honest maybe a live position after I see it next game is a game for me Colorado and Nebraska awesome game ahead of us uh Colorado vs. Nebraska Prediction Colorado and North Dakota State really delivered on the entertainment side I I got a money line parlay through with them that was another way that salvaged my week because Colorado at times was shaky Travis Hunter was unbelievable Sanders was obviously racking up numbers as well but now they hit the road against the Nebraska team that it was UTEP but there's got to be at least excitement around this game it is cross it almost mirrors Texas it's crossed six and a half to seven and a half money line is minus 265 I'm on the Nebraska side particularly rolling them into those money line parlays what do you make of this game I like an over I took over 57 Colorado increased their pace so they did some weird stuff last year you know they have the early season hypers speed then they change OC's midseason and they go to super slow they kind of met somewhere in the middle and I'm expecting that to be around their Pace this year with this offense especially because like you shouldn't play at hypers speed with the defense you have on the field and then Nebraska was also much faster which I think you could explain by just having rayola versus last year you were tring trotting out Jeff Sims and harbor and they pass the ball like 43% of the time that's not going to be the case this year with Nebraska so I think right away there's just a little meat left on the bone for an over not to mention we didn't even talk player Personnel bad showing defensively for Colorado again they allowed 6.5 yards per play to North Dakota State and 10 yards per pass attempt we're still very early into the Rola career but he is a pure pocket passer that is all he does the receivers are significantly upgraded Tred for Nebraska bringing in Jamal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah ner from Texas formerly of Wyoming and they're much deeper like Isaiah Garcia Cena who tore his ACL last year he's back and now can provide depth they had about four running backs hurt last year now they're all four back and in a time share your offensive line did lose one player but they stood up fairly well against UTEP the biggest concern I really have is just level of competition between these teams and evaluating them North Dakota state would probably be a 14o favorite over UTEP so I've been hearing a lot of people saying oh Rola looks so good Nebraska looks so good UTEP is legitimately starting double digit FCS players they took the entire Austin P team and brought it over and this is not a James Madison situation that was not a great FCS team so seeing Nebraska Slaughter UTEP that that's exactly what we expected to happen if you're changing your priors based on an outcome that was expected you're doing something wrong and this was also the outcome that was expected for Colorado North Dakota State this played very close to the spread it was a nine 10 point spread Maybe by a close they won by Five Points I do think Colorado is close to Nebraska in terms of talent maximizing that's a different story with Dion so I absolutely cannot touch a spread I don't know if I'll bet Colorado on the spread the entire year because of how talented they are I just really have questions with their coaching and it's kind of the same thing with honestly Nebraska not sold on Matt rule but I'll just take a total rather than take a spread with these two teams that I would still like some more information on before I take any positions on spreads yep I I totally get it like I said I'm I'm buying into Nebraska but I'm doing it in the same way that I think you can do with Texas I think Nebraska wins this game there's a nice there's some moneyline parlay pieces out there in the 250 range 260 range that I'm comfortable with I would lay the seven if I had to uh but I think there's a better way to play this game you got some real nice uh closing line value it looks like on that total it's moved up a little bit and that's one of the many reasons there's no better time to talk about it and talk about it right now oh Colorado lost to starting safety too sorry good no good good that's it that's the only thing to add so if you like the Nebraska passing attack I forgot to say that see a little weaker in the secondary and they times looked very confused but that's the type of info that's the type of closing line value it's all part of what we've got going on in the marketplace and what is the marketplace it's right on odd Chopper you come here and you have all these different different people bringing content to you 247 find the person that works for you I'm on there Matt's on there obviously if you love college football I would strongly suggest uh taking a look at either of our packages it's a good time you're dropping bets in there I'm dropping bets in there we're talking about Personnel you've been dropping player props as well because there's so much going on it's super simple the links are below on this very video I'm betting you come on in and let's have some fun and let's make some money that's as simple as I can put it it's a really really cool community no matter what person you're involved with no matter what package uh really proud of what we're doing here and we'd love for you to be part of the team now let's keep it going because we got a lot of games here and we've got some good ones this is the third game I'm I'm sound like a broken record I feel the same way about this game this is Tennessee and NC State uh Tennessee vs. NC State Prediction Tennessee one thing that Tennessee does and I respect them is they they go on the Old Miss straight murder path of just let's destroy a team Beyond all recognition it was 50 nothing at halftime them and Old Miss was up 80 nothing on Ferman uh Tennessee shows no mercy now Chattanooga is not a is not a thing so NC State's gonna pose a much different problem but NC State almost lost to Western Carolina I don't think that's a huge deal sometimes that happens blip on the radar eight point spread here I'm on the V side but are you on a total or are you on a side I have not taken anything in this game I was considering an over just pace of Play We Know Tennessee plays at the speed of light and I think we've seen kind of a tamed down version of the Robert Denai offense in recent years with the quarterbacks leaving mid-season and getting hurt and then Brennan Armstrong's complete utter disaster of a season so I'm not sure on this offense if Grayson McCall can do the things anai wants to because formerly they were fast and pretty pass heavy but in that game against Western Carolina it was very very sloppy and I think this honestly could have been much wider in favor of NC State they outgain them pretty clearly it was 7.1 to 6.1 yards per play but you look at some of the grossness from this game North Carolina state had an interception on the Western Carolina 8 yard line that turned into a touchdown for Western Carolina NC State had a turnover on Downs it was a fourth and one at the Western Carolina 40 NC State had turnover on Downs fourth and one the Western Carolina 14 they missed a field goal on the subsequent drive but there were a lot of points left on the board from NC State when they moved the field down the field pretty easily now my concern is you still allowed 6.1 yards per play to Western Carolina which is kind of the first point that brought me towards an over and then second this Tennessee offense should be awesome all year we kind of painted them as a shootout team in our preseason podcast about the SEC Nico IM alava at quarterback had a great showing and he's hyper talented Tennessee's just stacking five-star recruits you have Elite running backs Dylan Samson had an awesome game and plus you have like four stars pton Lewis waiting in the wings your receivers are better with the additions of Chris brazelle and you already had squirrel white and Brew McCoy back from injury o line had five back and then you added an LSU transfer the real question was the defense for Tennessee which is why I want to H highlight NC State leaving points on the field because if they don't do that they should score in this game Tennessee doesn't have anyone back in their secondary who started this game Jordan Thomas is out for the year they lost him the preseason it's basically just five starters up front and a completely remade secondary for Tennessee if you get Grayson McCall and this team to take advantage of that with you know Casey conception Noah Rogers Wesley Grimes they should be able to score points I have questions about the overall spread still I don't think I can back Tennessee just having beat up on Chattanooga who Chattanooga is good so to give some context they're the number 11 FCS team coming into the preseason they're not lynen wood or something that's a good team but NC State also played a pretty good FCS team themselves Western Carolina's 23 and again I think that spread should have been the final outcome should have been wider so I don't know I'm still hesitant Tennessee very young going through now their first game under IEM alava against a real opponent I don't know it's tenness or pass for me right now this would have to get you know like closer to 10 for me to consider NC State but I like the over more than anything else like right now the score would have to finish something like 31 or 3427 for this to go over which I think is definitely in the range yeah I mean listen I'm not going to push back on the the over at all Tennessee I think does a little more and I think NC State does a little less which which is we still can both get there uh you mentioned conception he was awesome the NC State's got players I worry just stylistically about your boy I'm not sure that Grayson mcco can exploit a secondary right now did not look good they got to clean it up a little bit but if he can NC State will score and I have no worries about Tennessee they're gonna score I think they're gonna March up and down the field I think they break 40 points in this game um and if they do that the over should be secure as well so I'm on the balls uh I have bet it yet uh just full disclosure I haven't put in many bets besides some moneyline parlay stuff but I'm going to probably end up with Tennessee on this card unless I miss it completely and it goes to 10 but it's not going to anything below 10 is good for me uh I didn't see the you know I tried to catch as much as I could I did not see the Boise State game I saw the Boise State vs. Oregon Prediction box score and there were some disturbing things on there they did ultimately do what they had to do and then likewise with Oregon they didn't win by the 50 points they were favored by I'll tell you that much but all all in all we get the matchup here it's still pretty damn lopsided though Oregon's almost a three touchdown favorite Boise's one of the teams we talked about as a potential playoff team uh obviously those aren't you don't have to win this game to do that but do you think Boise State can hang in this game I'm debating it the Boise State defensive metrics were a little better than I thought and I went in and dug into the the box score now I kind of realize why they left points on the board and they gave points to Georgia Southern just directly because of their inability to make fourth down conversions they basically handed 10 points at least to Georgia Southern they had a turnover on Downs a fourth and one at their own 34 it was an immediate TouchDown for Georgia Southern they had an interception at their own 24 that was an immediate field goal and then they also had a turnover on down a fourth and six at the Georgia Southern 34 I mean you're not far off from the Red Zone there plus they had eight penalties which really killed drives so I mean if you love turnover on Downs Boise stayed in Oregon meeting is the dream match up for you because Oregon wasn't much better their turnover on Downs were pretty egregious a lot of them in their own territory they had a a fourth and three at their own 45 a fourth and one at their own 36 couldn't convert either of them they fumbled at the Idaho 22 going into score they missed a field goal it's kind of a carbon copy both these games where just the favorite leaving points on the board and the points they gave their opponents ended up you know costing the spread Boise should have covered that game now you move forward it's just a vast difference in Talent Oregon also held out some guys from the game against Idaho Jeffrey basa got hurt in the game their linebacker cam Alexander didn't play either nor did Gary Bryant but I think both those guys are going to return now that you have a real competitive game on Deck Gabriel still played pretty well 84% completion 7.8 yards per attempt so you I mean you could argue maybe he should have pushed the ball downfield a little bit more and he didn't run at all but the offensive line was decent 20 and a half% pressure rate you'd like that to be a little better but I think they might get some players back on the offensive line too which would help them and Boise State's defense shouldn't really scare you they finished 64th in total efficiency and they were pretty bad in coverage 72nd now they face an air off offense so that needs to be noted but still you were giving up a lot of plays Chunk plays you're getting carved up underneath as well and shander's their DC this guy was a failure at Nebraska now he comes down to level in competition you have to go really far back to find anything good about chinander so he was a perplexing hire for defense that didn't really add a lot of transfers you're basically trying to fix up what you had on the field usually you know if you're going to do that you'd like to do USC's approach or LSU's approach but they went to approve proven failure instead so that's a concern I think Oregon scores on the other side it's can Oregon stop Genty in the Boise State offense Mattis Madson had a decent showing and I say decent because the nine. zero yards per attempt and 71 completion are good but one big time throw two turn of worthy plays should have had two interceptions in this game he doesn't run the ball at all the Boise offensive line allowed 23% pressure rate which isn't good isn't bad but they're definitely going to be under more pressure against Oregon I I don't know it's I think it's just going to be a staya away for me the only way I would play this is if it got to like 21 then I would consider points with Boise Edy lean I I I also probably G to be a stay away from me I was looking at the over a little bit because I do think Boise can put up some points and I expect Oregon to be a lot crisper it's going to need to be efficiency which neither team showed because neither team is fast Oregon was 90th in Pace last year and Boise that's they finished 43rd in Pace but you know a lot of teams don't qualify after week one their seconds per play would be around 90th if you extrapolated that to where last year's teams ranked so you're definitely not dealing with a pace up game and I don't think it behooves Boise to try to do that so you'll need these turnover on Downs to be converted into points instead of the the opposite but that could happen you have two good two good offenses anti yeah you saw a lot of that in week one I'm not GNA overreact but you're looking for an angle in the game that's probably my favorite of it uh I do want to mention real quick always by the way it's available in podcast form it's right there download it rate review all that good stuff so if you're going for a jog or doing something crazy you're on a car ride fire up betting you and listen to us talk about Arkansas and Oklahoma State now little little Side Story true story went to DraftKings on whatever day Arkansas played and I picked up Arkansas Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State Prediction Pine Bluff plus 70 and a half points the game ends I cover and I'm very very happy and then I find out that they played 10minute quarters in the second half and my bet got voided very very upsetting uh they stole my Arkansas Pine Bluff Victory from me Arkansas obviously looked good but seriously Arkansas Pine Bluff is is it's not a talented team unfortunately for them just a mismatch of Epic Proportions so the Arkansas offense was really really moving and everything looked great what is gonna happen now because Oklahoma State Credit to them they got the job done against South Dakota state who's a good team South Dakota state is a good team the number two team in the FCS they should have won the game I think it was 5.5 yards per play for Oklahoma State 6.0 yards per play for South Dakota State South Dakota state had a turnover on down at the Oklahoma State 43 that was the field goal for Oklahoma State they threw an INT at their own 40 that was a touchdown for oklah State they had a turnover on down at their own 40 field goal for Oklahoma State another turnover on down right at Midfield that one actually didn't amount to anything and then a turnover on down at their own 24 why are you going for it on fourth down so many times in your own territory normally I like this aggressiveness but I mean that that cost them drastically in this game and honestly the score does not even indicate closely how close this game actually was and if you had different decisions or just different outcomes on fourth down this game could have been wildly close because this Oklahoma State Defense was concerning against South Dakota State you allowed 4.4 yards per carry 6.4 yards per attempt I don't know it's a big problem for me and part of where they got dinged a lot is just this defense for Oklahoma State I don't know this was a huge question last year and really the biggest question moving into the year is like did they improve the defense they come in 92nd overall in overall efficiency 1110th in coverage 69th in run defense I mean this was a disaster of showing for this defense and again it's a onegame sample but you can look back last year these were major concerns for this Oklahoma State Defense and they didn't do a ton to fix it so I'm not really surprised to see them come in this poorly in efficiency metrics week one now I have about just as many questions with the Arkansas offense you go to tor green who was a failure at Boise State now you're just going to walk right into the SEC I don't buy that the offensive line only a two starter is back it's a complete transfer job they already lost Patrick koutas who's not going to play in this game at Center so that's a problem J quinon Jackson's great your receivers I think leave a lot to be desired based on last year's outing and then your defense is entirely transfer driven so I mean the whole thing comes down to do you think Bobby patrino can get more out of tail and green in this offense than you know like Bush hamon did and what Arkansas was doing last year and I'm not 100% sure ultimately what this comes down to me is I think it's too many points and I'm willing to find out because it's outside a touchdown Oklahoma State Should score just fine Allan Bowman's a good game manager in his seventh year football older than a lot of players playing in the NFL right now the receivers are Awesome Ali Gordon's Ali Gordon your o line is fine but this defense is highly suspect I think Arkansas can do enough scoring the ball if you can get this outside a touchdown interesting it's going to be a fascinating game because like I said Arkansas didn't show anything because of their opponent and and certainly ton green looked looked like a Heisman winner uh a shame he doesn't get to play those type of teams all the time this is gonna be a totally different situation but you are getting the hook not laying crazy juice interesting game right there next game up uh I'm gonna try to pull it up somewhere in the world I can't bet it I can't even see it on DraftKings that would be Georgia Tech and Syracuse two teams obviously Georgia Tech it's not Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse Prediction their fault but their their Elite win in Ireland doesn't look so good right now still they're doing what they need to do Syracuse new regime uh talk to me about this game what are you seeing in this matchup yeah they obviously beat Florida state which doesn't look as good and then they come back and beat Georgia State and that game was maybe a little closer than some people thought I think it's fine 7.8 yards per play to 5.7 yards per play for Georgia Tech yards per carry 6.6 Georgia state did have 5.2 so that's worth noting but I mean Georgia State they did have a fourth and one that they didn't convert on the Georgia Tech one yard line that was the opening drive and then they fumbled on the second drive that gave Georgia Tech a touchdown so immediate disaster for Georgia State but after that I mean Georgia Tech also threw an interception that turned into a touchdown for Georgia State this game probably could have been a little bit closer but I still think Georgia Tech showed just fine in the game and we know what they're going to do run the ball with Jamal Haynes and use Haynes King when they have to they're not throwing the ball as much as they did last year which probably behooves them Hayes King had a lot of interceptions but Malik Rutherford and Eric Singleton are back when they do throw the offensive line is solid they had five starters back but they replace one with the transfer so you have even more de the defense has been pretty good I'm not sure what happened with the yards per carry against Georgia State going up to 5.2 after they abut dominated Florida State I know they were stacking the Box against the seol and perhaps that I didn't watch the game so I'm not 100% share just speculating but perhaps that wasn't the case against Georgia State they didn't do that and maybe allowed some success I don't know Georgia State didn't have a lot of success throwing the ball so that's worth noting but overall I still think this defense is pretty good good and above average Syracuse you have to really dive in because of the the opponent Ohio is an absolute disaster project them as a bottom three team in the Mac which might be a surprise to some but their whole team was raided in the portal and they couldn't do anything to stop it this Syracuse team looked good on offense Kyle McCord looked great but I don't know how good Ohio is at all like I think this might be a bottom three team and now they allowed to decent amount of rushing production they allowed 203 yards to Anthony tus 12.7 yards per carry now you have to defend hannes King and Jamal Haynes with that I don't know plus you lost Marlo wax your stud linebacker he's the best defender on the entire team he's out at least six weeks I'm willing to lay the points with Georgia Tech if you can get a field goal you might be able to get a two and a half if you wait there is a two and a half on FanDuel is pushing minus 120 but it has popped up and again these are changing in real time so uh again if you're in Discord you're part of our our Marketplace uh both of us will be talking about this game I'm sure I I like I said I can't bet it if I could I'd be more in the Georgia Tech that I'm a Believer in what they're doing I'm a big Hayes King guy I still like what they did Even though Florida state has shown themselves to be very very very dysfunctional uh we got a handful of games left and and I also want to mention you guys know the drill I say it every week you want more you want to know about Northern Illinois and Notre Dame you want to know about uh let's see Kansas vs. Illinois Prediction East Carolina and Old Dominion these type of games hit us in the comments do you want betting you overtime because we we will gladly do the show but if people say that's too much that's too crazy then obviously we don't want to waste anyone's time uh but hit us and if if you do want the show drop games that you want to see we're happy to get them in you can tweet Matt at mattor gajeski me at jazzz bets the show is for you guys and we want to break down all the matchups that you want to hear about including the egregious ones uh this is a a game that we've gotten I'm sure there's a reason that they keep playing and whatnot but I'm interested to see Kansas and Illinois five and a half point spread you took already an unsolicited shot at lyndenwood for no reason you're going to kill our views uh at that college but that's all right the Ali are here much tougher opponent is Kansas ready for this hurdle to clear I think so and I'm sure lyen wood is very good at a lot of things they play some hoop not football maybe they're good in the FCS I don't know they're not ranked season they're not good okay sorry lyen wood I'm sure you guys have a lot of great stuff though I am not buying Illinois this is a team I was pretty out on heading into the season under on their win totals Kansas is a team I like a lot who brings back a lot Jaylen Daniels one of the most efficient signal callers when he's healthy presumably he is now did the training wheels on him in week one and he came out of it unscathed all three of his receivers back one of the most efficient running backs in the country Devon Neil solid backup in haaw you had three back on the offensive line what you do is you go out and you have Logan Brown now starting at right tackle he's a former five star with Wisconsin he was injured last year and Bryce Foster comes in at Center he's from Texas A&M so awesome offensive line the defense is solid here as well I think their biggest concern is upfront because basically every single person returns in the secondary and they have a pair of ab absolute monster corners and Kobe Bryant and Melo doson safeties are good there too so Illinois will try to run on you that is probably the biggest concern for me right now on the Kansas side is just Illinois will try to use like Fagan who's a 240 pound back and RAM it down your throat but I saw have a lot of questions with Illinois that team has been rebuilding poorly in my opinion only three starters back in the offensive line their transfers are still concerning to me Melvin Priestley from Grambling State I know he had a good week one JC Davis from New Mexico those are book in starters for your o line receiving core is zakari Franklin and Pat Bryant they started Colin Dixon at their last receiver spot I don't I don't really know there and their biggest concern on defense is upfront they lost a ton of starting production they lost Randolph they lost J on Newton to the NFL they lost Denzel Daxton your top three defensive lineman are gone and yeah that look looks fine when you're playing Eastern Illinois but now you play one of the better running attacks in the country in Kansas I'm I'm not 100% sure how that looks and your secondary still as concerns for me your three starters that are back one of them was atrocious last year and Xavier Scott one of them was good in my Scott the other one was average in Tyler strain the two other guys Caleb Patterson and Matthew Bailey aren't the most experienced so all back Kansas side I like this more than the market but you know coming into the season power rating these two teams I was also a little lower on Illinois than most other people so I'm not real surprised I like this spot yeah and I always think week to is very interesting at that because you have one data point and a lot of people extrapolate probably unnecessarily how good or bad a team is based on one random game particularly when it's like an FCS opponent so I'm with you there uh reasonable number hasn't even been close to testing seven anything like that you can comfortably slide in inside a touchdown we got uh Mississippi state they're another team that played nobody against Mississippi State vs. Arizona State Prediction Arizona State who I didn't see the game but I I they were doing some things to Wyoming they're again a favorite in the desert six and a half points what do you make of it is Arizona State better than we thought or it's just a product of playing what looks like two gettable opponents I think this is an overreaction to the Wyoming Game there were some people people out there calling Evan Saab Josh Allen I mean those people should be put in prison immediately forever making the comparison for the guy that couldn't beat out J or Andrew Peasley to Josh Allen like egregious egregious oversight by anyone who said that and Wyoming went down immediately in the game like surprise surprise faab threw an interception for a pick six in the first play of the game and then the second play the next Drive they go out on offense immediate turnover and now they're down two scores and what does Wyoming do they grind the ball to dust so when you're 12 minutes left in the first quarter you're down by two scores what do you think is going to happen so I mean again are we I thought Arizona state was probably going to win that game to the spread but I mean I guess that is an outcome that was a little bit beyond what we expected still I mean they were just handed points by disastrous decisions from in so like how good is their offense I think it's pretty good but they only average seven yards per play it's not that far above average I'm still a little bit concerned you know Sam levit looked awesome but now you have to face a real team an SEC team in Mississippi State I don't think their running backs are any good I've never been a scattero guy I think the receivers are actually atrocious they did nothing to replace Elija Badger like Malle mlan and Jordan Tyson from last year their offensive line I think should be better just with health so perhaps they you know can run on Mississippi State but this defense is entirely full of transfers I don't think they've been tested by what Wyoming put on the field last week and now you have to face an SEC team I think a bottom end SEC team but these teams are still better than most teams in the country so what does Mississippi State have leby is their new head coach I love him as an offensive play callor they're going to play Fast they'll be I think balance with shap and under Center really you just need him not to make stupid decisions but I like what this team is doing actually they had a lot of returning receivers that I think were all awful like Antonio Harman jadden Wally and they added some guys in the portal that aren't very good either instead they started Mario crarer fourstar brillan bernside he played a little bit fourstar like play your young Elite recruits quit playing these Dusty guys and it's immediately what lby did maybe it doesn't work out in the long term we've seen this multiple times you know like Ted McMillan and Luther Burton both had shaky first season and then they ended up as studs but like play your good players so thank you for that o line is entirely full of transfers these guys are actually decent so I'm not really that worried about it and their entire defense is transfers too so it's kind of just a lot of unknown their first showing was pretty decent against Eastern Kentucky take that for what it's worth it's an FCS team but really good offensive showing again you look at these efficiency metrics did anything surprise you nothing really surprised me for for Mississippi State in the box score but on Arizona State Side there's a bit of surprise their run defense was ranked 90th in efficiency their offensive line was 99th in pass blocking their run blocking was 84th so I think there's just a lot of misleading stuff in the Arizona State box score because Wyoming signal caller is an absolute [ __ ] so I'm willing to take points with Mississippi State I think this is going to go to seven so I would just wait that's my that was my next question do you think it's test seven are you okay taking plus 200 yeah I think you could sprinkle it this is gonna be an interesting game because again one data point and I'm not going to pretend that I thought Arizona state was gonna smoke Wyoming if Wyoming would have won that game I would have been like yeah I'm not even remotely surprised so I I can't say that's what I thought but I also don't think it changes the trajectory of this team and Missippi State nothing's happen to them yet uh you know they get a real test here 59 and a half point total seems about right probably most interested in actually just fully leveraging with the with the money line just because if I think if we're right on Mississippi State they have a real shot to win the game getting a good number there uh yeah that's the other thing too is like both these teams had a win total of what four and a half coming into the year my power ratings have Mississippi State ahead of them straight up going back one week I mean like this is in my opinion an egregious overreaction that's what I mean and so it's like all right why not uh yeah there's a 215 out there like to me that's a play you know maybe a half unit or something let it fly and and see also they bring in the backup Kaden Anderson saaba had 2.8 yards per attempt Kaden Anderson on a very small sample immediately to 7.2 they just started a [ __ ] at quarterback yeah poor Wyoming uh the the I don't even know who their coach is it's not Craig Bow I'll tell you that much but what are you going to do I mean again these are teams I think the the biggest takeaway from me is both of these teams you mentioned we did we did the offseason previews neither of them are expected to do a ton and I have them very close as well so if you're going to give me a full touchdown or you're G to give me north of two to one I'll gladly take it and and I'll roll the dice that we get a very even game even though they have to hit the road uh two more this is a good game actually this is one I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on Baylor vs. Utah Prediction what I'm talking about is Baylor and Utah uh balor's a team you know I don't think they're expected to be anything special they're a pretty sizable dog here Utah obviously the cam Rising era they played I think they played a directional School southern Utah or Eastern Southern Utah uh no problems how good is Utah though or should we be grabbing the points I've been consistently below Market on Utah for like three years now you really have yeah it it doesn't do me any good because their coach is so awesome so I I've kind of learned my leak even though they're not the best recruiting team the players that you see are returning on the dep chart to begin the year generally you can expect a little more from those players because Whittingham gets more out of them so I've learned my lesson but at the same time I have concerns in this game covering a 14 or 15 point spread two full touchdowns because of some defensive injuries they lost Keenan Johnson one of their Corners out for the year thei vahi their safety he's out an extended period of time he got hurt in the game leani duni at linebacker one of the starters from last year didn't play in week one now there's been no word on him some teams just hold out starters against FCS teams so want to hesitate with him but you're down two starters in your secondary already and you played an FCS team so absolute disaster there Baylor's fully healthy and I already had concerns with Utah at a couple of spots defensively I certainly have concerns this team finished 108 in run defense in 60th in coverage despite the poor opponent I mean you look back to last year's team they had some issues on defense this team was barely top 70 in run defense last year they were 61st they were 72nd in pass rush and 85th in coverage to basically bring everybody back so again you're relying on coaching but now you lose two starters this was an average defense and they showed some leaks immediately in that first game like ranking 108 in run defensive efficiency is I think a real problem initially like you look at the defensive numbers for some of these guys from Southern Utah who couldn't pass they allowed like 73 yards per carry to Lamson nine yards per carry to Ay 13 yards per carry to oh man this is gonna be a tough one Ali Hela lot of lot of production I know they weren't trying and playing all those guys all the time and they took they pulled their starters really early especially Rising but I mean this goes this also goes back to last year and where we have them power rated just some questions on defense that I think some people are automatically racing because of the opponent and yeah the offense should be good I'm happy that Rising ran I think to really act maximize this offense they definitely need to run and they should have success against Baylor like Baylor doesn't have a great defense but Baylor's offense is competent especially with those injuries they'll be facing in Utah their receivers I think are fine their offensive line is easily the strength of their team they returned basically everybody and they added four transfers your run game has four or five guys with starting experience Richardson Pendergrass Reese they have four starting receivers back plus Ashton Hawkins I think Baylor's offense can do enough here and Utah I still have questions on defense conversely I think Utah scores whenever they want to but again you're getting two scores 15 points in some spots I took a 15 and a half I'm willing to play anything outside of 14 with Baylor 14 and a half minus 112 on the screen right now now can I interest you in an over 54 and a half yeah that's kind of what I'm looking at uh you mentioned it I think Utah despite them maybe not being at the height of their powers they're still going to score uh and I think Baylor can keep Pace in some extent fine efficiency it's nothing it's nothing comical but a Tempo should be okay I I think both these teams have a chance to put up quality outputs I think Utah's efficient their offense is solid their Alli should be better than last year they started some uncharacteristic like young highly recruited players if you're like a fourstar like Caleb Blu and Spencer Foo and you didn't have a great season as a freshman but you're high recurred I I expect Whittingham to get more out of you but bringing in singer at receiver from USC and Arizona getting Pitman back from injury getting keithy back from injury Michael Bernard back from injury I mean I think there's a lot of juice on this offense so last year they were 114th in Pace I think part of that is didn't have a quarterback and they couldn't throw the ball now you have rising and all these players are turning from injury the pace is not going to be light speed but it's probably going to be better than 114th and then Baylor hired spavital as their OC they they're gonna throw they're gonna play fast and throw more so hopefully they can take advantage of the secondary final game up on betting you today uh it's probably could be UTSA vs. Texas State Prediction relegated to the second episode but they're our team and that means we make an exception and that means it's Texas State time they take on UTSA who we both astutely pointed out maybe giving up two you know they were 25 Point favorite against Kennesaw and they they were up 21 to3 and they almost almost lost that game I watched it Texas State on the other hand played Lamar and this is a shameful thing to admit in public I watched the Lamar Texas State game in full saw it from start to finish Texas state did what they normally do which is move up and down the field and then just throw theall all to the other team uh via fumbles they're missing field goals turnover on Downs you talked about this with Oregon you talked about this with boyy other teams Texas state was in that wrinkle it's a one-point spread here what are we doing it's continuing to move too this is the worst line I've eaten all week I already bet Texas state has a favorite so the dog price I think that's fine I saw have a lot of questions about UTSA both these teams you know basically played FCS teams kenesa is not anymore but they were last year didn't look great Texas State played Lamar definitely didn't look great I'll start injuries I guess I think UTSA has more questions in in my opinion they already lost a couple players to arrest this offseason one of their defensive tackles Nick Booker Brown was arrested Don Taylor their safety missed last game he's back on the depth chart their best receiver dor and Clark missed the game too he's not on the depth chart jiren Randall got hurt in the game it was a grp Bru some injury and somehow it's not season ending and then they miss two offensive linemen Makai Hart and Luke lezii neither on the dep TR neither on the depth chart this week so you got a lot of injuries for UTSA and I guess suspensions two offensive linemen that I had projected as starters your best receiver one of your backup receivers and then on defense one defensive tackle and your slot on the other side I think you just have much healthier performance out of Texas State and I think some of these guys didn't play there wasn't reporting so I think this might honestly be just performance Caleb Coleman he was a starter last year he didn't play but they added five transfers in the secondary that might be performance reporting Is Not Great Jim toe a big bow he was a tackle last year he was preseason All Conference but they also added four transfers that might be performance I'm not sure Torrence Burgess I think almost certainly is a running back they have a ton of studs including Ismail miti so I I don't know if these are injuries or just performance but what I'm trying to say is I think you have more questions roster wise and Personnel wise with UTSA you also have I think more drastic changes you go from Frank Harris to Owen maau and then on the other side you have Jordan McLoud coming in at quarterback who had an awesome season with James Madison and this is another spot I don't really want to overreact Texas state was messing around with an FCS team kind of by by Design they played 28 Defenders they were just rotating guys in and out of the field and they didn't even play the game where all right we're g to let us get up by a lot then play our backups they they took Jordan McLoud out of the game when he was seven of eight passing just to give Martina some snaps again knowing the game wasn't really a threat and then kind of letting Lamar get too close for comfort and then this is when some of their mistakes happened they had a fumble at the Lamar 24 yd line they missed a field goal and an extra point in the game they had a turnover on Downs at the Lamar 3 they threw an interception at the Lamar 30 I mean they let Lamar get an onside kick in the game this was egregious and I mean this was the story with Texas State last year I probably bet him in five games they should have won and covered but I think that's the case here what I really like is when you can start getting them at MIS price because of these egregious errors this team led the led the country in fumbles last year Sou I don't know I I still think they're a pretty big byow and the far more talented team versus UTSA UTSA had some really really concerning finishes against canas State they finish 56th in pass blocking 113th in run blocking they're 75th in run defense I don't know man I I think UTSA is straight up the worst team in this matchup and I think Texas state is much better I think Texas State's the best team in the sunbell oh yeah you know how we were all we're Texas State Tru uh this is the Incarnate Word uh you know they're just everywhere cam Ward's doing his thing this coaching staff knows what they're doing I'm a big Texas State guy I like I said I watched the game you're not lying they were fiddling with stuff in the first quarter Texas State also just for reference in the game and I think this is why they did this get the ball score stop them score and get a two-point conversion it was 15 nothing immediately and I think they were just like all right we know that where this is going uh and then they started messing around and ultimately Lamar clawed back a little bit it was never truly threatening but they were missing all THS thing motty fumbled as you mentioned turn over on the three I'm a big Texas State guy I've been backing them a lot I think they're very live to make the playoff uh if things break right as that special team uh you know the Dark Horse to see what they can do but no better way to close things out than talking a little about Texas State all right we got a couple minutes left here one last mention again the links are Bel you you're going to see The Insider Marketplace uh come on in we want you apart whether you're joining my Discord server you're joining Matts it doesn't matter it's all there both of us I I think put out really strong products we just want you guys as part of the team get both uh live a little obviously always up to you but there's just so much going on obviously uh one of the big differences is you won't be burdened with African Cup of Nations soccer in Matt so that's that's definitely a perk uh that he has over me but we've got a couple dollars in the pocket Best Bets uh for week two what are you seeing right now I think my favorite three are going to be Kansas versus Illinois five and a half is pretty consensus as far as the line over in Colorado Nebraska I took a 57 get this shy of 60 and I think you're looking pretty good and Georgia attack over Syracuse minus three if you can get that got some good on there uh I'm going to I'm going to leave Texas State on there I like that spot I know you do as well um just a team that I've been buying then I'm going to go back to the beginning it's it's not the most no don't take the 20 to one as I fumble around here uh I'm GNA take a shot with rolling some type of moneyline parlays I already have one posted in Discord but if you take a Nebraska and you take like a Texas there's a couple other teams that I'm looking at I think you can make some really nice numbers you get them down you can even get plus money on it uh to me that that's definitely a line minus 114 for those two to win I am on board with that this week uh and I'll probably have some egregious ones that we're gonna add to if we do the second show again you guys let us know on the way out if you can hit the like button it really goes a long way but final thoughts for week two floor is yours really excited for the games yeah should be on a normal schedule following my move and internet mishaps after this week so yeah you're looking good nothing do more not have my internet cut out get some more games more totals and provide more for you guys definitely definitely be on the lookout Your Best Bets videos will be dropping as well I have a feeling my parley videos just a lot of good stuff here at a chopper and friends thanks for making betting you so much fun for us to do it's all for you guys the Sport's been un unbelievable I hope it continues I hope you guys continue to share it thanks again for tuning in let's cash some tickets for me for Matt and for everyone here at OD Chopper good luck talk to you soon [Music]