Severe Storms Forecast to Bring Intense Snow and Heavy Rain to Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales

Intro good morning my name is Josh from Cyclones o and today a very detailed forecast update on the New South Wales Victoria and Tasmania low pressure system that is currently developing at this time and is expected to dump an awful lot of snor briefs and polar conditions to a lot of areas through new southw as Victoria and Tasmania we'll also touch on the strong cold front expected to impact Western Australia and take a general look at the Australian weather scene as a whole all of that plus more coming up in today's weather forecast so if you haven't already please consider subscribing and also leave a like on the video while you're at it your support is is greatly appreciated so taking a look at the East Coast Low Forecast satellite picture right now you can see this intense low pressure system really starting to churn itself up offshore from New South Wales Victoria it's racing towards uh Tasmania now and I think we can class this as being in the Tasman Sea uh it certainly is going to be a very strong low pressure system there's already some nice lightning and thunder happening around this storm and it very much represents the formation of an East Coast low it also has some very strong winds you can see a ship observation over here with Winds of 63 kmph that's scale Force Lord how island in the slightly calmer Northern side of the storm already recording winds out of the west of around 30 km hour and they have been higher overnight and then down towards maluda at Gabel Island Lighthouse looking at winds up towards 45 km an hour so it really starting to get quite windy and also a little bit rainy for locations outside of t uh and Newcastle on the new Southwest Coastline but that's uh going to be a today situation we're more concerned with the forecast over the coming couple of days we're going to switch it over to the rainfall forecast now before we take at snowfall over the coming couple of days and see what is expected from this powerful low pressure system so take a look at the storm right now you can see it's expected to intensify quite a lot throughout the course of today it's got a pressure of 998 mbars right now but by the time we get into the later hours of this evening and into tonight we're going to be looking at a pressure down to 990 Ms and considering these southerly winds are already starting to kick up on the back end of this storm they're going to be bringing some icy conditions to Tasmania and Victoria throughout the course of tonight now the very cold weather shouldn't um make its way into New South Wells throughout the course of tonight I think tonight will be a little bit more milder there'll still be a lot of cold locations cber expecting a Subzero degree night and a couple of places as far north as Armadale and Glenn Edis also expecting to get very close to zero however it's not going to be unseasonably cold and certainly is not a taste of things to come that's for sure uh Tasmania is going to go very cold tonight as well uh significantly below zero for some locations I reckon Le one we under some clear sky will get down towards - 6 or - 7 so more cold weather for them uh throughout the course of Sunday the rainfall will start to build up on the Tasmanian Coastline especially the South Coast it will start to pick up from around 2: or 300 p.m. local time and then really pick up for areas around Hobart and Port Arthur at around 10:00 to midnight uh and then the snowfall will also pick up around about that time as well and as this low pressure system draws closer into the early hours of Monday morning the rainfall will really pick up on the south coast of Tasmania and wet snow conditions are expected for elevations above 600 M and that will drop to around 500 M later on in the night in full-blown blizzard conditions are possible above 1,000 m in elevation now I'm just going to pull this back a couple of hours you can see that very heavy rainfall extending throughout Tasmania throughout the course of Monday especially for the South and the East coasts uh the snow is also expected to start in Victoria sometime very early Monday morning and it'll also start full locations along the Great Dividing Range Monday morning uh in New South Wales as final is BST expecting a couple of flows of snow early Monday morning the temperatures are going to be frigid Monday morning a lot of locations expecting to go towards zero or even below zero orange hovering at about 1° as the sun rises cber also at 1° and then there'll be places uh around threadborne Parish Valley that go significantly below zero and a couple of flowes of snow also expected up there just bringing it back to the low pressure system you can see as it creeps further north and still intensifies believe it or not going over the Ferno Islands Monday afternoon into early Monday evening the snowfall and the blizzard-like conditions are going to take place in Victoria uh from around midday onwards for elevations above about 1,000 M to about 1200 M now that includes FS Creek Oho Mount bull Mount hotam and those sort of areas they're expecting some blizzard conditions full-blown blizzard conditions might I add with snowfall accumulations up to 10 cm every 3 hours so make sure you are staying safe and staying well and truly indoors in an event like this absolutely no hiking on Monday today the weather is going to be very dangerous full-blown white out conditions like I said so stay very safe in a weather event like this uh just before I get onto the snowfall accumulations 55 cm of snow is expected around thread bow so it's going to be around a third of a year snow full accumulation expected to fall in around 24 hours so make sure you are staying very safe and very much Insight in our weather event like this now this low pressure system is very interestingly expected to break up into a really big tasmin to see and it's going to be one of those rare instances where when the low pressure system is to the north of Tasmania Tasmania actually ends up being more warmer than victoriia and in this case New South Wales as well hope about a very pleasant 11 or 12 de with some rain compared to Melbourne's 11° and Syd's 10° on Monday so it's going to be a little bit warmer down in Hobart interestingly enough uh the snowfall continuing through um Victoria New South Wales into early Tuesday morning it should start to ease off it might turn into a bit of freezing rain actually on Tuesday morning but Tuesday we will start to see some reprive to those absolutely awful and icy conditions by Tuesday night it looks like the low pressure system is starting to pull itself further into the Tasman Sea and it doesn't look like Wednesday morning is going to be as bitterly cold for parts of New South well as it's mainly going to be just Monday and Tuesday this time weather conditions are going to be freezing and the chance of snow is very widespread throughout New South Wales Snow/Blizzard Forecast now yesterday I used a feature on wind.com called the precipitation map and that was very helpful in indicating what snowfall is expected where now the white areas is where full-blown snow and blizzard conditions is expected that's reserved for the highest of elevations the blue areas is for rainfall but when you see mixed colors like the purples in here and the Grays that's wet snow or some sleep which is basically freezing rain now those are also pretty much equivalent to snow in terms of how they work they happen in very cold conditions and they can settle freezing rain is very dangerous that's where you get icy roads and some nasty conditions around and don't need much freezing rain to shut off a power grid or anything like that so we are expecting some freezing rain especially Monday night into Tuesday morning it's going to be a little bit more widespread at Tuesday Morning uh especially through New South Wales it's going to be making it as far north as around orange and BST so if you do live in Orange and BST and you miss out on the snow the chances of freezing rain certainly is going to be there but we're definitely expecting some wet snow towards some very good snow for areas around katumba outside of Sydney and also some snow for the barington tops outside of Newcastle so snow in Sydney or Newcastle get yourselves ready because there is going to be some snow quite snowfall as well south of Armadale and the mountains around Glenn in us also expecting a couple of drops of snowfall too so uh make sure you are ready because this is going to be sort of a once a year or once every couple of years snowfall event very widespread snowfall accumulation expected and that is a very clear picture that has been painted by the snowfall accumulation map here you can see snowfall accumulations over the next 10 days I mean we could look at the accumulations over the next 5 days it makes no difference very widespread it hasn't made it as far north as in yesterday's forecast for areas around Glenn Enis Tamworth and the barington tops don't expect as much snowfall now the cold or the low pressure system has kind of weakened off a little bit it's still very strong for the South uh however it's not going to be making it as far north which means that it is going to be slightly more milder up there but for people around orange and Baur the snowfall accumulation map Still Remains very similar in fact orange expecting up to 5 cm of snow that's very plausible orange does get snow every now and then and that looks like it could be settling snow so a couple of flurries Monday night into early Tuesday morning you might be waking to a little bit of snow on the ground especially in sheltered and very cool conditions kumber expecting a couple of centimet of snow too on the Hills outside of Sydney also a chance of snow uh for those of you Eden penrith though watching from the western suburbs of Sydney there is no chance of snowfall for your location unfortunately it's going to be a little a lot a lot milder rather along the coastline so don't get your hopes up any kind of snowfall accumulation you're going to have to go towards the west of the Great Dividing Range to see some decent snowfall um but the bulk of the snowfall of course happening through Victoria and New South Wells just take a look at this up towards 50 cm expected um in terms of snowfall accumulation for threadb and Parish Valley that sort of area huge snowfall accumulations up there uh so make sure you are staying safe and a lot of that is going to come from full-blown blizzard conditions on Monday uh it doesn't get much better in Victoria as well around Mount and so forth expecting still around 20 cm of snow so very good for the ski resorts however it's going to be quite nasty for the roads there Tasmania also expecting some pretty good snow over the next 5 days it's not going to be as intense there considering the low pressure system isn't going to be lingering offshore from Tasmania for as long but still a couple of centimeters is expected there in terms of rainfall as well that is certainly something that we should be talking about the southern parts of Tasmania expecting up to 120 mm of rainfall Mount Wellington a healthy 110 mm Hobart could be seeing up towards 50 mm maybe even a little bit more and then for locations on the East Coast between Kohl's and St Helens including Bernie and so forth K's Bay are me expecting some pretty good rainfall as well up towards 75 mm of the stuff the mountains adjacent to the coastline of the gibsland region of Victoria they're also expecting up towards 70 or 80 millim maluda expecting a healthy 30 or 40 millim from just steady rainfall however as we get into New South Wales the rainfall accumulation and the expectation for rainfall completely falls off uh there will be a couple of good drops here and there but it's just going to be widespread very light rainfall drizzly conditions through New South Wells on Sunday especially as you get further towards the west and then uh further Inland expecting those drizzly conditions to continue in towards Monday uh and then by Tuesday the rain should ease off come the evening hours Queensland completely missing out in the rainfall and pretty much anything from this weather event they're not expecting snowfall or bitterly cold temperatures either um we haven't really touched touched on temperatures I just feel like it doesn't need to be set at times because it's just going to be really cold we're expecting overnight lows to be around 60° below the average and uh Temperature Forecast daytime Maxima about 12 to 14° below the um average maximum especially on Monday that's going to kind of be the cold day at this time you can see areas around BST and that sort of area only expected to go up to around 2 or 3° uh by midday and then up towards Armadale as well in Glen temperatures not much warmer only about 6 or 7° there and it's going to be below freezing for quite a few days in the mountainous regions around threadb and Par Valley Tasmania like I have said is going to be a little bit milder especially around the coastline just because of the proximity of this low pressure system it's going to be dragging in the warm air on the behind side of it but it's going to be thrusting that cold air up uh through Victoria and into New South Welles overnight lows are going to be at freezing or just below freezing for a lot of locations just watch The Bu mety forecast they've definitely got it hammered home in terms of the temperatures here I'm not expecting anything crazy in terms of temperatures it certainly won't be record-breaking in terms of temperatures either I do feel like I need to say that however uh the temperatures especially the daytime Maxima they will be absolutely freezing so make sure you do rug up very very nicely because it is going to be bitterly cold especially during the day and there will be a little bit of wind chill as well so stay indoors when you can because that wind chill will also be absolutely brutal and like I have said as well in freezing rain conditions don't drive unless it is absolutely necessary because those roads will be hazardous just flick it back over to the rainall accumulation and put it to the 10-day forecast you can see really not much expected to be happening around the Australian continent and you can see why General Weather Forecast I can miss things if I'm just looking at the rainfall accumulation because this New South Wales weather system I mean it doesn't dump much rainfall at all and it would be very missable that's for sure however in terms of weather around the rest of Australia looking high and dry a couple of drops of rainfall expected in Far North Queensland but that's about all the rainfall expected for Queensland Northern territory the tropical parts of South Australia and Western Australia there will be a nice cold front going through for Tasmania later on next week but we'll touch on that in a closer date when we've got more details what I'm very interested in is Western Australia so we're going to go and talk about that right now as you can see here 10day rainfall accumulations are looking quite high around the Perth metro area and the Perth Coastal plane what is driving this well I'm glad you asked because late Western Australia Cold Front next week we're expecting a very strong cold front to make its Passage through said strong cold front will be lighting up the coastline sometime Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon before making its crossing of the Southwest capes around Wednesday lunchtime before going for the Perth metro area sometime later Wednesday evening now it's not going to be ridiculously strong in terms of all out crazy thunderstorms and intense rainfall and so forth but it will have a nice band of monor to locally heavy rainfall that will stretch out for a couple of hours and it could be dropping a very healthy 30 to 40 mm for the Perth area and a couple of other locations as well especially into the darling Rangers down towards collee expecting some pretty good rainfall totals up there or down there as well and then further up the coastline there is also the chance of some good rainfall and this steady moderate to heavy rainfall extending through Perth right into the early hours of Thursday morning so there will be quite a few puddles and maybe some uh lakes in that here and there around the Perth area Thursday morning so just make sure you take it extra easy on that early morning commute next Thursday because there will be quite a lot of probably some isolated flash flooding here and there just considering the amount of rainfall that is possible from this weather event I believe on Thursday expecting you can see it off the coast here already starting to build up towards 50 or 60 maybe even 70 mm uh housed in this cold front but more widespread totals of between 20 and 40 mm but you can see as it comes through Perth it's just a thick strip of rainfall accumulations averaging about 8 to 10 mm every 3 hours and considering it's going to be lasting basically a whole night you look up towards 30 mm basically uh guaranteed for the Perth metro area so it looks like some very good rainfall is going to be coming in Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and then on the back side of this front we get a little secondary cold front coming through and that will be whacking the Southwest capes from around Thursday afternoon this one will have some strong winds in it some Icy winter conditions not icy but it will still be a really cold winter front that's going to be coming in behind it some locally heavy showers as possible maybe some small hailstones in them and it looks like this is going to be a very typical winter pattern here uh as this rainfall moves further out into the merch and the gascoin and into the goldfields region of Western Australia and dumps its totals there where we could be seeing a few good drops as as far out into the gascoin at sort of mikara maybe even a little bit further north than mikara as well be seeing up towards 10 or 15 mm there now on the back side of this cold front this series of cold fronts we do get a little bit of an Arctic or an Antarctic rather airpol that comes up sometime next weekend Saturday and Sunday it's going to be bringing some cold showers towards the South coastal regions of Western Australia and it looks like we could be seeing another 10 or 15 mm from this until those winds swing around from the Northwest we get hit by another cold front this one also looks pretty strong and also we're developing one Sometime Late next weekend and into next Monday and I did say uh in yesterday's forecast up that that we're definitely staring down the barrel of a uh sort of a week or maybe two weeks of winter weather as the southern um oscillation really moves up into towards its positive State we'll be seeing some nice uh winter weather conditions uh throughout the course of next week and like I said that is happening from around Wednesday Thursday onwards with the passage of those cold fronts and that's According to some pretty good rainfall accumulations you can see that over the 10-day forecast like I said up towards 80 90 mm on the Perth Coastal plane uh widespread totals above 60 mm Perth expecting up towards 65 mm and then areas around the South Coast as well bulon expecting 50 mm but the South Coast between windy Harbor wo pole Albany expecting up towards 120 mm in places some very good accumulations there unfortunately this really good rainfall doesn't penetrate too far into the wheat belt there will be places especially north of Canan and mount Barka uh maybe is Inland towards bordon and Amal up um that are expecting up towards 30 or 40 mm which is very good corage and expecting 35 mm and the western parts of the wheat belt around York Beverly and Brookton always expecting some good rainfall from a setup like this the northern wheat belt not really getting too much in the way of rainfall maybe 20 mm out towards Del wallan or Kalani up towards 20 mm as well for areas up the coast around calbar and Geraldton also expecting about 10 to 15 mm Inland for the merchon but the rainfall really gets quite predictable once you get toward ws merchon and mount magnet paints fine that sort of area so we won't be holding out for a forecast there just because of how unpredictable the rainfall is but still a couple of good drops expected to make it as far inland as uh Mount Magnet or maybe even Q if we're really lucky the rainfall should be easing off by then and it also does get itself into the Goldfield so that is also some really good news we'll just wrap this video up by taking a look at the drought monitoring situation there are some minor to mild drought condition is starting to extend through the southern parts the wheat Belton especially around Katan and Lake Grace where they have had some below average rainfall so far this winter season but that is expected to be wiped off the map pretty much completely by the end of next weekend after this rainfall just a couple of pockets still around uh but with some more rainfall on the cards it does look like that will continue to be degraded which is some very good news indeed especially for farmers who are waiting for a very good harvest especially with the forast that they were given from the Bure of meteorology expecting a very good harvest this season in a lot of the wheat belt of Western Australia soil moisture values as well very high especially along the typical locations close to the coast but there are some spots around Lake gra that are significantly further below average which is unfortunate especially considering how much rain a lot of locations have had so hopefully this rainfall does just top up those dams and get those Rivers Fly and get that ground saturated because that is exactly what they need in this part of the wheat Bel that's all that I have time for today thank you so much for watching the video to this point your support has been greatly appreciated on the channel if you have hav already please consider subscribing and also leave a like on the video while you're at it um thank you so Outro much to the channel sponsors their support is absolutely unbelievable their names are on screen right now I could not be running the show without them so thank you so much to all of their ongoing and continuous support that is much appreciated uh have a great weekend everybody and I'll catch you w in the next storm goodbye