Severe Weather and Heavy Rainfall Forecast for Victoria and Tasmania, Rain Forecast for Queensland

Intro good morning my name is Josh from cyclon SS happy Sunday to all watching today we're going to be talking about some heavy rainfall that's on the cards for Tasmania Victoria and New South Wales we'll recap on the severe weather over in Western Australia we'll talk about some rainfall for Far North Queensland and we'll also chat about a developing Heat Wave over Central Australia where temperatures could S as high as 40° over the coming few days all of that plus more coming up in today's with the forecast if you are brand new to the Channel please consider subscribing your support is greatly appreciated so we're NSW/VIC Thunderstorm Forecast going to start things off over with new South Wes Victoria and Tasmania there's currently a rainband streaming in there now and that's bringing showers and the isolated thunderstorm to Central parts of New South Wales and also keeping the temperatures there relatively cool in comparison to locations surrounding it you can see there is some decent rainfall that's expected to move through parts of New South Wales today in fact we've already had accumulations about 15 mm around orange uh Forbes and that sort of area and some good accumulations are expected to continue over the coming few hours and you see it here on the rainfall forecast it is a little bit off actually the EAS has been pretty inaccurate on this forecast I find the GFS to be slightly more reliable so we'll use this model just temporarily even though it is lower resolution and doesn't crank out the data that we want to make an accurate forecast however uh through Sunday and Monday we are expecting some showers to continue into the um Eastern and the northeastern half of the state for locations between Newcastle T up towards kofs Harbor that sort of area um but again not much rainfall is expected only a couple of millimeters through there um and in contrast to that we're expecting some severe thunderstorms later tonight across parts of Victoria with the approaching cold front that's sweeping through now what's going to happen here and I'll refer back to the satellite imagery here is these um this cold front down here is Sweeping in a big band of northwesterly winds which are bringing warm not humid but semi-humid air into Victoria and with the combined humid air from this cold front from this uh frontal system here that's moving through New South Wes those two systems will collide sometime time early this afternoon creating a what's expected to be a thunderstorm outbreak across Central and Eastern Victoria and you can see it here there is the chances of your thunderstorms at around 6:00 or 7 p.m. tonight especially for locations between a line of Melbourne out to bendo and bort uh through to shepperton and Mansfield and out towards albre and wager wager in New South Wales these thunderstorms here like I said do have the potential to become severe at some point uh with damaging winds isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and maybe even large hailstones conditions do look primed for severe thunderstorm development this afternoon with a lot of energy in the atmosphere in the form of convective available potential energy there's about 600 Jews per kog kilogram of air which is a pretty high value to be seeing across Victoria for this time of the year so definitely looks like we've got the chance of a bit of a Tasmania Rain Bomb severe thunderstorm outbreak if you will and again nothing too crazy is expected across New South Wales but some of these storms do have the potential to be semi severe across Victor bringing in those throats that I have just listed with braful accumulations expected to be up above 30 mm for a big sway of central eastern Victoria between sort of Ms filled up towards Albury omo and some of the more mountainous communities will likely miss out on the big rainfall accumulations but it still looks like a pretty good spread event Melbourne expecting up to 10 mm today I reckon the rainfall there will be very hit and miss and when it does hit it'll be more so the northern and the Eastern suburbs but couldn't R off a good Thunder cell moving through the center of the city uh the west coast of Tasmania as well expecting a few good drops of rainfall today but that is nothing in comparison to what we have to talk about now and that is heavy rainfall that's expect to pipe up over Tasmania and Victoria from about Wednesday onwards and this rainfall here Mar my words it is heavy you can see accumulations on Wednesday from a cold front that's going to be sweeping through it does give Victoria a bit of a Miss but we do still see rainfall and snowfall accumulations above 50 mm of parts of Tasmania on Wednesday just from showers that are going to be streaming ashore same deal with Thursday another cold front and some showers moving through Thursday night we're expecting rain to continue piling on for Tasmania and again with that Westerly flow the West Coast getting drenched Friday and Saturday onwards and even to start off September another cold front moving through and more rainfall on the card so you can just see it is a steady Westerly stream of rainfall and snowfall right through into about Tuesday Morning next week in September Tuesday the 3D where're expecting the rainfall to slowly start to ease off of Tasmania but again just playing this through again from the cold front that's going to be coming through late Tuesday night right through Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday and Monday it is just a constant Westerly stream of showers that's going to be impacting Tasmania uh and it's going to amount to an awful lot of rainfall again typical weather for this time of the year but we are talking about a vast quantity of rainfall coming ashore and especially with rivers flowing at about 80% capacity this rainfall in Tasmania could result in some flooding so rainfall accumulations from this weather event which I'm going to call a weekl long rain bomb over parts of Tasmania they will amount very very quickly averaging about 30 mm a day we're going to quickly see rainfall accumulations sore to 200 mm over just this weekl long period between Tuesday at the 27th of August and Monday the 2nd of September good rainfall as well expected along the northern coast of Tasmania between 80 and 120 mm possible around Ben lman National Park accumulation slightly higher about 125 mm but it is the West Coast right from m cyer Island extending up towards wara and um Arthur River very heavy rainfall accumulations are possible St expecting about 180 mm the bulk of that will be coming in from those shs from about Thursday through to about Sunday uh rainfall as well expected around Strath Gordon in the mountainous areas on the Southwest coast up to 180 mm is possible there and then Queenstown rosbury Mount Reed are going to be the wet spots and I do believe Mount Reed in a weather event like this has the potential to pick up four or 500 millim from this weather event keep in mind the west coast of Tasmania very much overlooked at times from these weather events um the west coast of Tasmania can pick up up to 5 m of rainfall in a calendar year so we can't be writing off half a meter of rainfall coming through in just a week it is a rainforest or classed as a rainforest at least uh this part of Tasmania so this sort of rainfall it is typical it is expected but it is still a lot and I believe it can catch people off guard quite quickly the rainfall accumulations across Victoria have been backed down still some good Falls expected across the Australian Alps in the Victorian Highlands and into the New South Wales Highlands as well and some good Falls also expected along the southwestern coast of Victoria but again I don't think it's going to be penetrating too far inland but still the showers will be welcome across Victoria especially later on this uh week um but it's the snowfall accumulations that's really turned my head again it looks like the easn has backed down the snowfall accumulations once again and I said this yesterday they'll continue to back it down and I only reckon we'll get about 40 cm of accumulating snowfall over the high peaks of Tasmania in this week long weather event good snowfall expected along the west coast as well between 5 and 15 cm for locations as far down as about 700 M so still it looks like it's going to be pretty widespread this snow and then for locations in Victoria snow down to about 1,000 m in New South Wales down to about 1200 M and some accumulations between 2 and 10 cm are possible there apart from the high peaks in New South WS we could be seeing accumulations up to 20 cm and snow extending as far north as Mount katumba or the katumba area and then out towards orange as well with a few flares expected out there I believe those fles will be coming through Friday and Saturday next week uh and again nothing to uh crazy or high in terms of accumulations is expected out there uh Central Australia Heatwave this will be the snow at least is being kept in moderation by temperatures which is what I want to talk about now we do have a heat wave extending across central eastern Australia and that's going to be starting from today in fact uden data yesterday recorded its hottest August day on record breaking the previous record by 3° at 39.4 and also breaking the South Australia's all-time winter temperature record bringing it from 36.5 to 39.4 very close to 40° it was a very hot day out there and you can already see on the temperature map uh it is just early morning right now about 10: a.m. out in central Australia but Alis spring is already approaching 30° birdsville at 27 it is starting to get quite warm and certainly is going to be a taste of Summer over the course of today with daytime maximum expected to sore up to 38° across central Australia very warm for this time of the year in fact up to 14° C above average for some of these places very very toasty indeed across parts of Southeastern Queensland as well we won't neglect them you can see Brisbin going into the low 30s by the looks of things tomorrow or getting close to the low 30s tomorrow and also on Tuesday conditions and temperatures warming up very nicely and this temporary Heat Wave does last until about Wednesday warm temperatures are still expected right throughout the week with temperatures between 2 and 10° C above average for large areas of New South bars and Queensland but it's Central and Western Australia that has my attention from about Thursday onwards you can see temperatures especially across Western Australia expected to sore above 40° C for the first time this uh Northern wet season uh and temperatures as high as 35° C right down towards UK in Southeastern Western Australia and through South Australia as well even down towards s Juna expecting temperatures as high as 30° next Thursday Friday will be another hot one across central Australia with temperatures as high as 40 or 41 uh between a line of Allis Springs down towards birdsville so very very warm indeed to close out August and the hot weather continues through the end of August and into early September as well especially for Western Australia and the tropical coasts of Queensland Australia uh Northern Territory rather and into Western Australia hot weather looks like it's going to be set in stone from about SE setember onwards from early September onwards and this is the short sharp quick enter winter that I was talking about and I have been talking about for the last couple of weeks this hot weather very much above average across parts of Australia it's not totally unusual for this time of the year but I would also like to add that this is a very early start to what is going to be the warm weather and temperature anomalies are expected to be significantly above average and going to see if I can find a map of that right now actually yeah you can see in terms of temperature anomalies you can see temperatures right up towards the 90th or even the 99th percentile across parts of central Australia right throughout the course of this week those yellow areas indicate above average temperatures and then those pink areas indicate extremely above average temperatures where you're talking the sort of highest percentile and a lot of that is extending across especially later this week across central Australia this early season Heat Wave certainly looks like it's going to be packing a punch so make sure you are staying hydrated staying cool and probably staying indoors during the peak hour heat hours of the day certainly no vigorous outdoor events are recommended in a weather event like this certainly is going to be quite warm across parts of central Australia for this time of the year now before we touch on Far Western Australia Winter Weather Recap North Queensland I would just like to give Western Australia a little bit of love they have had some showers over the night as well and we have had accumulations above 50 mm from the cold front that did blow through I believe just outside of K at wle they had 60 mm of rainfall from the weather event that blew through over the past 48 Hours certainly some decent rainall accumulations a few showers are still expected to linger throughout the course of today some showers also possible tomorrow evening as a cold front comes up from the south on about Tuesday early morning into early afternoon for the Perth metro area a couple of drops of rainall expected around Perth on Tuesday before it return to the cool calm dry conditions for Wednesday before another cold front comes up Thursday afternoon I believe and bring some more showers to the southwest and the South as a whole uh throughout Friday a few showers also expected before a return to the dry conditions on Saturday and Sunday for the weekend it looks like it's going to be a couple of days of dry weather powered by a high pressure system now this does look like it is the winter wrap up uh at least of cold front starting to come a lot weaker and a lot uh further between each other and a lot more dry weather is now on the forecast here and you can in fact see it on the rainall accumulation forecast with rainall accumulations from today including the two conts that are coming through over the next 10 days not expected to be above 25 or 30 mm across a wide sway of the Southwest a few spots in the Hills still expected to pick up at least 50 mm over the next 10 days but apart from that the good drops are going to be concentrated to those wet locations Perth itself not expecting too much in the way of rainfall Albany as well missing out a lot of the rainfall so it looks like winter is really starting to wrap itself up across parts of the Southwest which is great to see I bet a lot of people are sick and tired of the winter weather we've had some very good rainfall this year as well North Cliff just outside of ManUp and pton has picked up nearly a meter of rainfall this year there's been a lot of personal weather stations including my own that have ticked over 1,000 mm this year and all of that has been from the winter rainfall we've had a very dry start of the year before a very very wet winter so overall it has been a very successful winter in terms of rainfall accumulations and rainfall anomalies and you can see it here with soil moisture Valleys skyh High across wide spats of the Southwest and expected to stay that way for some time to come so farmers are very excited for the potentially great or bumper Harvest as they call it this winter season fantastic to see into on Far North Queensland Rain Forecast the topic of rainfall as well let going to talk about final Queensland real quick they do have some rainfall on the cards but I would just like to talk about how wet the D tree is in fact I did miss this but yesterday in the 24 hours to 9:00 a.m. beds just outside of Mossman picked up 75 mm of rainfall and that just goes to show how a couple of showers can quickly turn into a teep of rainfall across parts of Far North Queensland thankfully there isn't too much coming through throughout the course of today a few showers are possible tomorrow afternoon though showers will continue developing throughout the day some rain is also possible Tuesday especially in the morning hours before clearing out Tuesday afternoon showers continuing through Tuesday evening right through Wednesday Thursday and into Friday well before a return to a couple of days of dry weather before into the early parts of September some rainfall really does pipe up but you can see it here on the rainfall accumulation map some big accumulations are possible especially across the D Tree you can see Peak accumulations above sort of 50 or 60 mm there and considering only 10 mm was on the forecast for that rain event that dumped 75 mm in beds am I for no second saying that 7.5x the rainfall is expected from this weather event absolutely not however it just goes to show how quickly rain forecasts can blow out and become unreliable just because of how fast the rainfall starts to add up across far North Queensland and uh it is typical for this time of the year where we start to see those showers really do pipe up across parts of far north Queens but just the heads up when you have 50 mm on the forecast it certainly is time to pay attention to the rainfall up there in ASF expecting some good showers same with the D Tree area D Tree Village expecting some good showers throughout the course of next week and like I have been saying every video for the past 6 months rainfall can very quickly accumulate across far North Queensland nothing to worry about right now but just keep a close eye on the forecast and keep a close eye on the radar and make sure you are always ready to be uh putting in your flood plan um into complete action because things can get out of hand very quickly across far North Queensland St a waffle here thank Outro you so much for watching the video to this point your support lately has been greatly appreciated if you haven't already please consider subscribe to the channel your support there is phenomenal and again greatly appreciated if you've got any feedback or you want a specific forecast for your location please let me know in the comment section I'd be happy to get back to you as soon as I can um again any weather reports for your location leave them in the comment section I do love reading them and it it does help me make these forecast videos as well a special shout out to the channel sponsors their names are on screen right now and I could not run this show without them so thank you so much for all of them their names are on screen uh at this time and that is all for me today and I'll catch you all in the next storm goodbye