Severe Weather Update, Tasmania Dangerous Storms and Heavy Rainfall Forecast over Queensland

Intro good morning my name is Josh from cycl Oz and today another detailed forecast update coming your way we're going to recap on the severe weather that's blasted Tasmania and Victoria over the past week we'll talk about some showers and storms across central Australia that are going to be continuing from today right throughout the forecast period into about 10 days from now we'll talk about some showers over Southwest and Western Australia we'll also talk about some heavy rainfall up in Far North Queensland all of that plus more coming up in today with the forecast if you are brand new to the Channel please consider subscribing your support is greatly appreciated so we will start things off Tasmania Severe Weather over in Tasmania it's the first morning that I've actually woken up to make these videos and I'm not seeing destructive wind gusts being reported throughout Victoria and Tasmania you can see it here on the wind map we're not seeing any ridiculously strong wind still quite strong and B blustery rather around mapsy Island at 59 km an hour again those wind gust is really starting to ease off now and then up at Hogan Island as well just outside of Victoria winds also quite strong at 50 2 km an hour but get this that is a third of what the wind gusts were last night where the winds were gusting up to 150 km hour very very strong wind gusts indeed and the strongest wind gusts Victoria has seen on record this this wherea the system that has blown through the one that blew through Sunday night into Monday morning was record-breaking by basically every every measurement the do and river is just starting to come off its peak of major flooding it's still got some moderate flooding up in the huan valley that sort of area outside Doan uh bridge I believe the town is called but there is still some moderate major flooding in that region but it is starting to calm down at this time and I imagine the water levels will continue to recede throughout the course of today they really isn't much in the way of rainfall expected across Tasmania there will still be a couple of drops today and tomorrow across the West Coast but there really isn't too much expected until another cold front brushes up from the south late Wednesday afternoon and into early Thursday morning this one here again won't bring too much in the way of rainfall we could still be seeing up to 25 mm Thursday morning along the west coast of Tasmania some light CHS as well possible up into Victoria and South Australia as a result of this weather system but I'll touch on that a little bit later on in this video now Tasmania still does have a few significant weather systems on its way there will be some heavy Falls possible especially around the northern coast Friday and Saturday morning where between 40 and 50 mm is possible to the 9:00 a.m. on Saturday morning Sunday the showers and snow will also continue especially along the west coast and into the high peaks of the snow and then a complex low pressure system will approach Tasmania by the looks things Thursday the 12th of September onwards now this one here doesn't look like it's housing anything in the way of significant rainfall but I'm just taking a look at the wind gusts here they do look quite nasty at some places into the Great Australian Bon this certainly is going to be a weather system worth watching for Tasmania this low pressure system is going to track in this kind of Direction here and collide with the Tasmanian Coastline probably about 2 days beyond what the forecast models are suggesting and I've got a very high uh level of confidence in saying that this is a system that is very much worth the watch for Tasmania it is a significant one it looks like this low pressure system could cause them some problems but again we are still talking about 2 weeks out into the future and it's very hard to forecast storms that far out but I've just got my eyes on this system and I've had my eyes on this system for the past couple of days I think it will be a troublemaker for at least Victoria and Tasmania and potentially South Australia as well now South Australia Storms just before we finish up on the winter weather we'll talk about South Australia and Western Australia there is a little cold front expected to move through South Australia on Friday afternoon that will keep temperatures quite warm throughout the course of Friday especially into the afternoon hours for rockby Downs KU pedia uden data and Min be and there could also be some thunderstorms popping up along the dry line at this cold front late Friday night and into early Saturday morning again nothing too crazy expected and WA Winter Weather Forecast then we've also got some uh weather systems heading for Western Australia from about Wednesday afternoon onwards this cold front here that's going to be moving through is really weak but the shower pool that's going to be coming in behind it will actually be pretty vigorous this Westerly flow behind it is going to bring some very cool temperatures some potential small hailstones some storms to the South coastal region and potentially some isolated heavy rainfall Thursday morning and into early Thursday afternoon for for the Perth metro area it'll also help in keeping temperatures very cold on Thursday maximum of 14° of Perth and cooler for the um uh for the Eastern suburbs as well and even down into the Southwest we're not expecting temperatures to break double digits on Thursday afternoon you can see down around Mount Barka 9 deges even outside of pton and canning you're looking at temperatures of around sort of 8 to 9° here very very very cool indeed not expecting anything in the way of significant heat that's for sure and that is in St contrast of the heat wave that's extending across Western Australia that is developing now and will continue through Thursday and Friday of this week another very interesting thing on the forecast here and this is semi-tropical but remember that cold front we were talking about 2 minutes ago where you can see Monday and WA Heavy Rainfall Tuesday this low pressure system starts to develop Inland in Western Australia and this low pressure system here fires up a bunch of showers and thunderstorms along a trough line late Tuesday afternoon looks like it could actually be a severe thunderstorm event across parts of the South interior and the goldfields the majority of the action will be towards the east of the goldfields if it does actually happen or at least to the east of culan kardi but there still could be some rainfall and potentially heavy Falls you can see here outside of esprin and along towards Israelite Bay the rainfall could at times be intense down here where up to 50 to 80 mm is possible and you can see here on the rainfall accumulation map here uh through Wednesday and into Thursday just from this low pressure system alone a bunch of rainfall is possible like actually a lot more than 80 mm up to 120 mm of the stuff is expected it is reciprocated amongst the forecast models as well I mean take a look at this the axis G3 calling for some Falls as well out in this part of Western Australia they're calling for it at a different time but you can still see in the 5 to 10day forecast period there is going to be some significant Falls at someplace into the interior or goldfields region of Western Australia so it looks like later on in the forecast periods we're really going to have to focus our attention down towards the south of Western Australia we a potentially severe thunderstorm outbreak could be underway very interesting indeed and another thing worth noting on NSW/QLD Storm Forecast the forecast mid as well is northeas and New South wals they do have a little bit of a thunderstorm event likely sometime late next week or mid to late next week you can see here Monday and Tuesday some thunderstorms do fire up along the northeastern corner of new southw and into the southeast of Queensland these are the first real tropical thunderstorms that they're going to be seeing for the wet season 20242 and it looks like some of these storms here could be quite strong again they're not really apparent on the forecast models here but just the spread of thunderstorms here and the conditions considering there's going to be very warm air apparent across Northeastern New South Wales and some high levels of humidity into the upper atmosphere thunderstorms are going to thrive in an environment like this and it looks like they are now on the forecast and this has been a feature on the forecast for the last couple of days as well looks like next Tuesday might be worth watching uh up in northeastern New South Wells and Southeastern Queensland because some thunderstorms certainly are possible there now we've definitely Central Aus Heatwave talked about enough of Southern Australia in terms of the winter weather that's going to be happening there so let's warm things up and talk about the heat wave that is extending across central Australia now there's only going to be so many more days that I can actually call this a heat wave until this actually molds into normal weather but what I would refer to this system as is the were the big low pressure systems powering the near 40° days being reported across wide SS of Western Australia the Northern Territory even into parts of Queensland today is going to be a scorcher actually across parts of Western Australia down towards caly temperatures as high as 35 deg expected and then around Fitz road crossing and Derby temperatures up to 40 potentially 42 also expected on the forecast these temperatures here are an abnormally High um amount of heat that's extending across Western Australia abnormally early on into the wet season typically this heat starts to build late September early October but it's decided to build early September this year and I reckon that this is going to be uh a pretty consistent Trend throughout the next month or two where we're going to be seeing these uh heat waves really start to warm things up across the Northern parts of Australia especially into Western Australia about 3 or 4 weeks before they normally do start to warm things up and I just think that the heat now is certainly stuck in now for Western Australia I think that it's going to continue to be really hot for the next 6 or seven months up there and I don't think mble bar is going to see a day below 35 for the next s months obviously they will see one or two splattered here and there but I think the temperatures are going to remain blisteringly hot up in the northwest of Western Australia from here uh until the end of the wet season so through Thursday and Friday as well warm temperatures expected a little bit of rival Friday considering the cold fronts moving across the South dragging that heat out and dissipating it as Remnant Energy across the southern states of Australia temperatures will continue to warm up again on Saturday and Sunday and the heat really does build into the northeast of New South Wales through Sunday Monday and Tuesday and you can see here Tuesday afternoon where these thunderstorms are expected to fire up they will be slightly more mild but you can already see temperatures at 8:00 a.m. over in Queensland into the mid-20s even the high 20s for parts of the Northeast or the North or into the East the pardon me the west of the state rather get my directions all scrambled here uh very warm temperatures nonetheless though throughout Tuesday and Wednesday Prime conditions for thunderstorms to far up potentially severe as well we'll keep a very close eye on this thunderstorm event temperatures continue to warm up through Wednesday as well and then into Thursday of next week you can see this big Hokey Pokey low pressure system in The Great Australian B that's going to dragging in a lot of warm air into South Australia temperatures as high as 38° C expected as far south as some of those Barosa ranges that will extend up towards I believe roxby Downs is the town yeah roxby Downs is the town just outside there warm temperatures into the Northern Territory and warm temperatures into Queensland as well now speaking of Far North Queensland Heavy Rainfall the far north it's time to talk about rainfall there is a bunch of it now on the forecast especially into the 5 to 10day forecast period we're really starting to see these accumulations pile on for Far North Queensland the northern rainfall onset by definition hasn't struck up yet for parts of far north Queens but it's only a couple of days away I mean take a look at this the eastw now expecting between 100 20 and 150 mm of rainfall for parts of the C coast and you know my math up here you can generally get away with doubling that amount of rainfall for the wetest of locations so expect some places in the next 10 days to pick up 10day accumulations of around 300 mm or so there'll be some showers throughout the course of today nothing too heavy only a couple of millimeters expected here and there and the majority of it should Miss cans the rainfall will pick up later tonight into early tomorrow morning they could actually be some isolated heavy Falls around Ingam and Cardwell and this is where I'd like to talk about the onset of the wet season by definition it's the first 50 mm of rainfall that falls after September 1st and I reckon to the 9:00 a.m. on Thursday the 5th of September the northern rainfall onset or the wet season by definition would have begun for locations around igam Cardwell and some of the Rangers outside of Townsville also outside of in um inale binda and tul there could be potentially up to 50 mm falling there now most of you up in Far North Queensland are probably screaming through your computers right now wondering what the hell I'm talking about uh but that is By definition most of you know there the real rainfall doesn't pipe up until late November early December I see a lot of comments around Christmas week last year was a little bit early with cycl Jasper but it typically is around that December time frame where the rainfall really does pipe up and that's where we're talking about 500 mm plus a week up there uh and yeah that is still a couple of months away but by definition the wet season is forecast to begin sometime in the next 48 hours up in Far North Queensland the heavy showers will continue throughout Thursday as well and even in towards Friday morning before some temporarily e of the rainfall Saturday and Sunday still going to be showers up in Far North Queensland from the um onshore flow that's expected to persist up there some light showers throughout Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday before the rainfall looks like it pipes up again Wednesday and Thursday next week and all of this rainfall day byday when you're talking about 20 mm a day it really does pile on you can see it here on the forast models if they want to load in a bunch of it is expected into the next 8 to 10 days and in fact a really significant amount of it is expected in the 8 to 10 day forecast period up to 150 mm of the stuff that's certainly going to get some water into the river certainly going to continue to saturate the ground up here there's a map we haven't talked about for quite a while but it's the soil moisture anomaly map here you can see soil moisture values are still about 15 to 20% above the average in fact into the dentry they're much above the average here between 30 and 50% above the average up there significantly above average and when you're talking about rainfall uh to the degree that we're expecting on the forecast models up to 100 mm the stuff a lot of it is just going to continue to saturate the ground or potentially become runoff and add to the flow of the rivers up there certainly not expecting any flooding definitely not even minor flooding not expecting any of it over the next 10 days but it really does start things off for a rainall event that might come through October or November um especially into the early Seasons when they're not necessarily expecting it the flooding can catch a lot of people off guard and this is just a sign of an early onset to the northern uh rainfall onset up here it's a sign of we're expecting the rainfall to come in really thick and fast uh earlier on in the season that's what I did make say in the forecast update that I released a few days ago uh I was expecting the real rainfall to begin at least a month or so early for parts of Far North Queensland and I reckon that I'm going to keep that prediction um at least for the next couple of months I see no reason to doubt that forecast I do reckon the rainfall is just a couple of weeks away up in Far North Queensland or at least the real rainfall probably about 6 or eight weeks away in terms of the radar imagery up here I did get a little bit confused when I was researching for this video there's really nothing on the radar up here but the forecast models are suggesting showers up in the far north I reckon the radar will start to build later today you can see there is some ther Cloud just out see this is the more sort of rain bearing stuff here and I reckon that will continue to build throughout the course of today especially into the afternoon and the evening hours when a lot of evaporation takes place anyways that is enough on WA Storm Forercast Far North queens and we will touch on the Northern Territory and Western Australia in fact believe it or not there's some thunderstorms currently firing up into the northern interior parts of Western Australia around werton and Newman sort of area or well outside of Newman but it is sort of in that general area still some showers and storms are expected to continue throughout the course of today you can actually see them on the lightning map here and have to be really um careful of what I bring up here on the forecast and just not to spoil stuff but you can see there was a few lightning strikes out around sort of wton and Docker River earlier on this morning uh certainly the first thunderstorm events that they've seen for this wet season and I reckon that this is going to be an ongoing Trend as well with thunderstorm events being more prevalent into the early parts of the wet season up here let's talk about rainfall up into the north of the kimbery and into the Northern Territory there is now quite a bit on the forecast for this time of the year over the next 10 days you can see showers and storms expected to be pretty consistent around Truscott and columbaro over the next 10 days especially into the 5 to 10day forecast period there's nothing really on the forecast right now but you can see Sunday night Monday night and Tuesday night we are seeing showers and storms firing up pretty consistently over the top end of Western Australia into the Kimberly region they give the bigger population centers such as Fitz Ro Crossing HSE Creek canara Windom those sort of areas a bit of a Miss but along the Northwestern coast of the kimbery between columber down towards Derby and broom there is the chance of some thunderstorms later on in the afternoon hours of Monday Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday next week a very interesting feature to have on the forecast for this time of the year that's for sure typically those thunderstorms start to fire up late October early November and again like we talked about up in Far North quens the northern rainfall onset the first technically the first real rainfall is only a couple of weeks away from Western Australia and into the Northern Territory as well and it's only going to be a matter of time to we start to see those thunderstorms firing up daily over Melville Island and into Darwin for the Outro Northern Territory at least anyways that is all that I have time for today uh thank you so much for watching the video to this point if I've left anything unanswered then please do let me know in the comment section down below and I'll get back to as many people as I can throughout the course of today your support in the videos lately has been greatly appreciated a special shout out to the channel sponsors without them I could not run this show so their support is much appreciated but that is all for me today and I'll catch you all in the next storm goodbye