2024 IDP Linebacker Rankings | PFF Fantasy Podcast

Key data/intro welcome everyone to the PFF fantasy podcast IDP Edition I'm John Macker and I couldn't be more excited to do this rankings episode today as we are one week away from the Hall of Fame game Texans versus Bears on August 1st and what better way to celebrate than by ranking the top 24 linebackers for the 2024 NFL season there isn't a better way let's be honest I'm fired up so let's get it [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music] all right I'm excited to get another one of these IDP rankings episodes out there after doing defensive lineman a few weeks ago defensive backs last week um naturally that leaves just one more position to cover and for those tackle heavy leagues which there are plenty of uh it it's the most important position it's the linebackers right so now balance scoring formats which we like to use um for PFF related articles and stuff like that where you know we can tweak tackle scoring by position um linebackers won't be as valuable as they are in tackle heavy but still like I said I know there are a ton of tackle heavy formats out there or formats that at the very least can't break out scoring by position position which is why um linebackers is always such a popular IDP position every single year right so um just quickly actually before I start uh to really cover my ass in case something happens in the week of July 20th to 26 when this comes out um if there was a major injury or something like that when I'm going through these player rankings I am pre-recording this so apologize if there is some you know big news wise item that comes out in nn I don't reference it um but mention it in the comments and and we'll cover it there so let's get into it here and start with kind of the the rationale for me as to why I have my rankings in the order that they are before we actually get into the rankings themselves and I've said this in the the rationale portion of all the past IDP rankings episodes I really believe that this information that I provide on why I'm ranking players the way I am is more important than the rankings themselves because you may not necessarily agree with you know the order of which these players are ranked but the proven data and information that I'll give you as to what I'm looking at and what matters is is info that you can take and then apply to your own personal rankings and biases um towards certain players to help you kind of sort out you know your own rankings and things like that so one of the most important things that is just non-debatable when it comes to idps and linebackers specifically for this episode that that matters Above All Else heading into a new season is projected playing time the the more a linebacker is going to be on the field the better shot they have at producing tackles and and stats that lead to IDP production right like you can't score fantasy points if you're not on the field and for those linebackers that were projecting at 100% of snaps they're going to have a much better shot at out producing those linebackers that might only get like 80% of snaps so very simple concept that just has to kind of be taken into account here for position and and worth mentioning and an easy one to figure out especially once the season starts rolling as well um the other part of linebacker rankings and find kind of edges among the high volume medium volume low volume guys as we go down the list of playing time is what type of defenses these linebackers are playing in because I've run the numbers every single year and one of the biggest edges or or cheat codes that we can find for projecting linebacker tackle efficiency um which in itself is not necessarily sticky and hard to rely on year toe is that tackle efficiency but the type of coverages that coaching staffs and and defenses deploy actually do help to lending to help those tackle efficiencies for our IDP linebackers and help them either be high average or low compared to their peers um with the biggest Advantage being defenses that deploy a more uh zon heavy approach versus man because if you're watching on the YouTube right now you'll see that every type of Zone coverage so cover two at 16.1% cover six at 15.6% cover three at 14.7% and cover four at 14.6% all those percentages representing tackle efficiency or average tackle efficiency um they all yield and above average tackle efficiency compared to the average linebacker tackle efficiency across all snaps which is 13.4% % from last year um and much higher than the man coverages like cover one which is at 10.2% cover zero at 9% and then cover two man at 7.9% those are huge swings in potential tackle efficiency that we can take advantage of if we know who those defenses are and I do keep track of those man and Zone rates in the the weekly IDP fantasy report for those that follow that article in season but heading into the season it's admittedly a little harder to predict but not impossible right so what I did was I created a system that took every team's defensive play caller Tendencies and how they deployed each of those coverages most recently then applied The Tackle efficiency to those coverages and rates across an entire season's worth of snaps and then I was able to come up with kind of a ranking of which teams may have the most linebacker friendly defenses for tackle production based on that formula and yeah it's a loose Pro projection because we can't pinpoint exactly what a defensive coordinator is going to run for a new season especially new ones who maybe we don't have reliable data for um but it's a starting point in in finding that big Edge heading into the year and one that we can usually get relatively close especially for those coaches that we have more data on which most NFL coaches we do have uh a decent data on here um in at PFF there's not a ton of new ones but there are some so I wrote that up in article form um you could find that on pff.com and I'll link it in the episode description as well if you really want to dive into that data which I think you absolutely should because even if I'm biased because I wrote it I think it's very valuable and important information for linebacker projections and more reliable than what anyone else is doing I I can promise you that for for those looking at you know just last year's points per game or or just tackle efficiency like that's not nearly as strong um so I would I would take a look at the article if you can and and I am using like pass tackle production data for these players in my rankings as well but not an over Reliance on like tackle efficiency or pass points points per game anything like that but the stickiest metric that I could find for past linebacker production is the tackles versus expected numbers which you'll be able to find in the episode description within that scoring spreadsheet um there that's there as well but tackles versus expected did yield a higher year-to-year correlation um than tackle efficiency actual tackles points per game fantasy points for linebackers than than anything else um so you know it's not as strong as my like expected sacks for defensive linemen which was up around 080 correlation but it's stronger than anything else you'll find for linebackers at this point and uh 0 58 correlate correlation for for reference it is decent for the linebacker position since it's so volume dependent so you'll hear me reference tackles versus expected way more than anything else when when citing past production and that's exactly why um so with all that said um knowing that we have playing time playing the biggest part um LB1-LB6 coverage scheme coming in next and tackles versus expected being our past production indicator we can kind of get into my my top 24 linebackers for the 2024 season and at the very top the man who is no stranger to Elite production has the perfect snap projection along with a good projection for his defense in terms of tackle production once again Foy aluan of the Jacksonville Jaguars is is kind of the Clear Choice as lb1 again this season um he's finished 95th percentile or higher in tackles versus expected in each of the past three seasons he was 98th percentile in back-to-back Seasons um he isn't just a product of playing time like so many linebackers are and and we'll get into to some of those guys later but Foye clearly provides like above and beyond production compared to the average linebacker so um so much so that he's led the league in in Solo tackles and fantasy points in back-to-back Seasons so look obviously three peating as as lb1 the odds are probably against him but we're ranking these players with a specific criteria as we laid out above and there's just nobody who is a better bet than Foye to once again kind of get in that range based on his history and that key criteria so for me he's an Easy Choice as lb1 uh again this season lb2 for me is ran Smith of the Baltimore Ravens we all know him he's Dynasty lb1 for me I'm sure for others as well like there's no concern for for playing time here obviously we know he's capable of elite production he's another one like foyer that has finished in the top 95th percentile in tackles versus expected in each of the past three seasons doing so in two def two different defenses as well um the Ravens you know they aren't necessarily projected as like a great defense for linebacker production based on their scheme but again looking at the tackles versus expected numbers will tell you that ran is one of those kind of scheme proof linebackers which we can trust a lot more when those numbers are as Elite as Roans have been he he's he's to me a great choice for a top three linebacker pick I'm sure he'll be drafted in that range anyways um zier Franklin is next up another top performer from last year finished as lb3 has been top five in in back-to-back Seasons but most importantly as far as like kind of maintaining that high level of production the Indianapolis Colts are the second best project projection for linebacker tackling at 14% And they are the most Zone heavy defense from last season so kind of have to love that with Gus Bradley staying on um to continue Zer he isn't like the consistent Uber producer that oan or Foy in terms of being scheme proof or or anything like that but he was 93rd percentile in tackles versus expected last year which was promising um that you know he can be that guy but obviously with him only being like a two-year starter the track record isn't as strong even in 2022 when he posted like 150 something tackles he was just 68th percentile in tackles versus expected essentially delivering right on what he should have based on the amount of snaps that he played so nothing wrong with that um last year much better than that of course but just kind of you know figuring out tiebreakers between the linebackers in this top tier that's kind of what puts him at three I guess instead of one or two essentially uh anyways lb4 is one of those Elite producers Alex kleton Singleton uh has never finished below 998th percentile in tackles versus expected since 2021 and has led the position in each of the past two years in that regard like the dude he is the epitome of a tackling machine there hasn't been anybody nearly as efficient as him in recent years which is just wild to keep up considering that you know from an NFL perspective he he's mostly just kind of okay right the only difference I think for me as to why he isn't higher is is for that reason alone that he is just kind of okay he isn't this you know locked and loaded 100% guaranteed snap player there's just like at least the tiniest part of me that is slight worried about a snap reduction at any given moment if he's not up to snu on the field but it's literally like just a super tiny concern since there really isn't any other obvious choice to replace him on that roster so you know for now we absolutely ride with Kinglet as a top five fantasy linebacker heading into 2024 uh at lb5 it's the Los Angeles Rams only linebacker uh Ernest Jones he he got the starting gig last season with with Bobby Wagner's departure had himself a breakout season he was awesome the Rams defensive coordinator uh Chris schula was with the team last year when Raheem moart was Defensive or Raheem Morris not Raheem moart um was defensive coordinator so when I put the the projections together as far as scheme and usage it's just using last year's numbers because we usually do see some similarities when that's the case with an internal higher though of course it's not going to be exact either right so main thing though that was that the Rams were as Zone heavy defense um last year they're they're a strong Pro projection this year as well based on that but even if they're not like super Zone heavy again Ernest still performed as an elite tackle producer he ranked in the 97th percentile in tackles versus expected and led the league in tackles versus expected against the run so just gives some more bearing to him being among the more scheme proof linebackers and why he's still like a strong kind of tier one candidate um to me he should be considered kind of locked into another strong season in LA and i' I'd feel good about taking him in the top five linebackers for IDP uh again this season um the last name in my top tier LB7-LB12 of IDP linebackers because he's pretty much the last name that really hits on all three major categories that we're looking for for criteria wise um or is at least dominant in two of the three and and fine in the other uh it's my guy TJ Edwards who checks the boxes for perfect opportunity for playing time top five projected projected defense for tackle production and then ranked 80th percentile in 2023 in tackles versus expected um after previously finish finishing in the 97th percentile in that regard in 2022 and 2021 um finished as lb4 overall and in points per game last year just clearly like the best IDP linebacker option in Chicago as far as Effectiveness and and efficiency I don't expect that to change at all in 2024 so I'd be all all in on him as a top tier IDP linebacker uh again um now if you're reading my article on pff.com you'll notice that tier 2 is a big one for me um because it takes pretty much all the remaining expected full-time linebackers and and orders them buy their expected tackle projection which combines the defensive scheme projection and their tackle versus expected history which is a lot of the time going to be stronger one way or the other in this tier versus having both like most of the guys of tier one so let's start with lb7 Aziz Al shaer now of the Houston Texans this will be his third team in as many years but performed really well last year as a full-time starter in Tennessee finished 76th percentile in tackles versus expected he was actually 99th percentile in tackles versus expected against the run just behind Ernest Jones um most importantly to me like the Texas are top five projected defense for linebacker tackle efficiency so ALS Shyer kind of reuniting here with Deo Ryan on a nice contract in free agency kind of safely puts him into that full-time starter position so he should be more than capable of kind of delivering as an lb1 for for IDP as well this season uh Nick Bolton of the Kansas City Chiefs is my lb8 now he he's he's one that actually has a history of elite tackle production to be ar arguably higher on this list for 2024 but the Chiefs are and have been one of the more menhey defenses in the league under Steve spagnolo they're ranked bottom six in projected defenses for for linebacker tackle efficiency for me heading into this year so that kind of has to be taken into account for for Bolton to keep him kind of out of that top tier I guess but other than that one thing like Bolton is locked in as a full-time starter we're not worried about that and his tackle versus expected production is excellent he he was 99th percentile in both 2021 and 2022 unfortunately he just missed time in 2023 with injury but still worked his way to an 85th percentile Mark despite playing Just 441 defensive snaps so he he's a very strong tackler he's proven to be relatively scheme proof in that regard so I'm not concerned about his defensive scheme enough to move him like outside the top 10 or anything like that I I think he's going to bounce back in a big way in 2024 if he just stays healthy for the entire year so no worries there still an IDP lb1 for 2024 uh the goats Levante David comes in as lb9 for me this season reliable steady production now for what 12 years like yeah this could be the last dance for him riding that you know sweet Raymond James Stadium pirate ship into the sunset sunset obviously you know he's he's not going to be seeding his full-time snaps to anyone else on that roster as long as he has a pulse and he's always found ways to be more productive than just tackles like Todd BS is going to Blitz him a ton as per usuge so he'll get his chances at sacks again like he does pretty much every year to go along with like a floor of 120 tackles he has dipped as far as efficiency in recent years but it's not such a concern for him that I'd be worried about utilizing him as my lb1 if need be this season again like it was lb1 in points per game last year as well um we love a David going out with a bang um as an IDP if this really is his last season uh another great linebacker comes in as lb10 here Fred Warner of the San Francisco 49ers uh lb2 in my Dynasty ranks because of just long-term potential um but you know he comes in a little lower here for the redraft ranks just because of a slightly lower tackle Effectiveness on on an annual basis weekly basis whatever um you know even though he was lb6 in scoring last year he did it with a lot of unsustainable big plays two and a half sacks four interceptions four Force fumbles but also just finishing you know 56 percentile in tackles versus expected that speaks to that tackle Effectiveness he was 48th percentile the year before so there's just some slight hesitance to push him up into that top five range where he is for dynasty for me but I think there's just you know probably a little more trustworthy tackle producers for this year alone that kind of keeps him from soaring too high but still like top 10 and another great lb1 option for this season um yeah I mean the hits keep on coming with legendary linebackers here because at lb 11 it's CJ Mosley of the New York Jets efficiency has slowly dipped in recent years if you're looking at his tackles versus expected numbers he went from 94th percentile in 2021 to 82 percentile in 2022 to 302 percentile in 2023 and part of that comes from the Jets defense just being manhe heavy below average in terms of you know the The Tackle efficiency projection but even with all that like he still posted 150 plus tackles finished as lb12 last year so you know just not expecting him to be I guess as ineffective in terms of tackles versus expected as he was in 2023 but also not expect him to get 180 tackles or something crazy like that I I I think you know that 150 160 range doable for him again this year so top 12 linebacker for me uh once again and lb2 is Bobby Oar of the New York Giants I I like Oar I guess I don't love him um at at lb12 here he probably would might be higher for some people I know he finished as a top 10 linebacker last year but similarly to to Fred War Warner um had a lot of big plays to volt him up there that that could be tough to replicate two and a half sacks four Force fumbles two interception in interceptions and finished 36 percentile um in tackles versus expected but also played every single possible defensive snap last year like didn't miss a single one so he had to get those big plays and not miss a single snap and didn't crack the top five IDP linebackers so it's not to hate on him or anything because obviously I have him as lb12 I think he's still a really solid option I just don't know that he should be any higher than that um basically Giants are are also among the bottom of the league in terms of tackle efficiency projections with Shane Bowen coming over from Tennessee it's a surprisingly similar coverage scheme as what the Giants had last year just in terms of Man heavy man heavy coverages um so that could affect his potential to deliver well over expectations as well where you know he he may be able to get higher than this in this ranking but um for me I think lb12 is about the right spot for LB13-LB18 him okay next up at lb 13 is Kaiser white of the Arizona Cardinals who could be in for a really nice season as long as he stays healthy obviously you know we only got a smaller dose last year through 11 games but was lb 16 in points per game and part of that comes from Nick Rice's Zone heavy defense being one of the top five friendly schemes for tackle production this season um again it's it's just a loose projection but still promising stuff for a player that we've seen be a very productive IDP um and there's also next to no competition for white snaps in Arizona as a 100% snap player um he'll hopefully beat me slightly more efficient as a tackler we've seen that from him before as recently as 2021 with the Chargers but the last two seasons with the Eagles and Cardinals were just kind of right around expected um with this past year actually being a bit lower than expected so otherwise you know he'd be in consideration to get in the top 10 just based on his playing time and the team linebacker tackle projection but for now he's lb 13 just missing the cut of that top 12 okay lb1 14 is Eric Hendrick of the Dallas Cowboys who very similar to white has has not necessarily been an overly effective tackler in recent years but playing for Mike Zimmer's defense in Dallas provides a lot more positives for potential in 2024 so Zimmer's defense uh albeit he hasn't been in charge of a defense since 2021 we kind of know the type of Defense he'll run right with the Crux of it being Zone heavy and also allowing for at least one full-time linebacker often two um which is a huge difference from what Dan Quinn was doing in Dallas last year where it was a man heavy scheme and a heavy rotation at linebacker as well so just don't get that 2023 Dallas defense confused with this 2024 one because it's more than likely going to be very very different which plays a lot into the favor of players like Kendrick and that Dallas linebacker core um in fact Dallas's defense under Zimmer projects as the best defense for linebacker production this season based on that defensive scheme data alone on the exact opposite end of that spectrum is Dan Quinn's Washington commanders defense um leading Bobby Wagner to come in as lb15 now Quinn did not deploy even one full-time linebacker consistently last season and ran a Superman heavy defense which for those paying attention are both very bad for IDP linebacker production now I don't expect Quinn to not deploy one of the best linebackers of this generation in a full-time role I'm going to assume that Wagner does play close to 100% of the snaps but I don't think he's going to Veer away from that man heavy defense that he's had a lot of success with and especially in Dallas last year so Wagner is great obviously which is why he's lb 15 but I'm not expecting him to be a top five linebacker for IDP again this year I just don't think that defense is going to allow it um recently Wagner's kind of gone back and forth in terms of his tackle efficiency specifically tackles versus expected in these later years of his career was slightly up last year at plus 6.4 overexp expected um but I think this year will be a real test for how much more he has left in the tank as far as providing Elite production so he could still provide expected production I'm sure but getting back to that top five I think is just on the lower end of possible outcomes at this point okay lb1 16 um is not a familiar face I guess from years of IDP past it's Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrell Bernard now Bernard was great last year mostly as a waiver wire ad very early in the year when it was clear that he was going to be the starter next to Matt Milano and then he came in and had a more productive season than Matt Milano has ever had uh he delivered 143 tackles six and a half sacks now obviously that's a pretty high bar to set to to do again especially with Milano back in the fold this season and when they didn't really deploy another full-time linebacker next to Bernard which opens up a little bit more tackle opportunities for him too um and that was after Milano went down last year so it just freed him up a bit more to get more of those linebacker tackles him self which is similar to what we're kind of hoping for Kaiser white as well um but even still I think he's probably the best IDP linebacker to Target in Buffalo I say probably I I feel pretty good about that um but it is I think close I I don't think Milano is going to be like a huge hit to Bernard's playing time and production so to me he's just a strong lb2 option this season as far as I'm concerned kind of right now okay lb 17 another Young Gun here this time of the Green Bay Packers it's Quay Walker um we don't know what Jeff Halley's defense is going to look like in Green Bay this season Halley coming out of Boston College no real NFL experience it's difficult to project but one thing I feel pretty good about as far as Walker is that he's clearly the safest bet for full-time snaps on this defense where if hle ends up utilizing a more dime heavy approach for example and takes a linebacker off the field in favor of a defensive back like I don't think it's going to be Walker that comes off the field who has the NFL experience and and now the draft Capital um to his name to kind of hold that spot down without too much concern like they did draft Edan Cooper in the second round and Isaiah McDuffy played well last year so one of them is going to start next to Walker but that's the thing lb2 isn't really a guaranteed spot in Green Bay lb1 pretty much is with Walker so he's not amazing as far as his IDP production goes but he's good enough to do kind of as expected of him with his snaps that you're getting him you know as an lb2 pretty comfortably on a weekly basis uh and similar rationale with lb8 for me Devon Lloyd to the Jacksonville Jaguars Jaguars uh Lloyd at least kind of does have a reliable defensive projection for this season where it is one of the better defenses in the league for tackle production in Jacksonville the problem is he shares that defense with our lb1 Foye alakan who is going to mostly dominate The Tackle opportunities there but not so much that Lloyd won't be able to contribute at as a reliable starter for IDP either we saw the Jags utilize two full-time linebackers last season with Foye and Lloyd and Lloyd you know while he's coming in slightly below expected in tackles versus expected it's relatively close at negative 5.4 for the entire year that you know he's in that average linebacker range and being full-time in a positive defense that that makes him an lb2 for LB19-LB24 me um so I just went over why I like uh Terrell Bernard as Buffalo's lb1 for for IDP um but again it's close because of the defense in Buffalo coming in well above average in terms of tackle efficiency projection um just being another Zone heavy defense which plays into Matt Milano's favor as much as it does Bernard so Matt Milano's lb1 19 for me he's the best like NFL linebacker on the team so not that there would be any hesitance in deploying two full-time linebackers but if there was a world that they did Milano would be the top option to play every down so he stays in play as a potential locked in IDP starter again the defense the playing time those are the main things going for Milano so I'm I'm fine with him as an lb2 type heading into this season he just needs to stay healthy that that's always the biggest pain in the ass with him um so hopefully this year is a little different we'll see how that goes um lb20 for me is Robert Spain so as we kind of start to get into this low lowend lb2 options we we start to find a bit more reasons for concern as far as track record goes and Spain of the Las Vegas Raiders um is potentially one of those guys and yes he had 140 tackles last season but to just finish as the lb4 overall he had to deliver three and a half sacks three interceptions and play 1,00 defensive snaps to get there that's a lot to ask for a repeat now I still like him fine here at like lb2 and the Raiders do have a strong projected defense for tackle efficiency um just as strong as Buffalo really but again taking into account his tackles versus expected numbers he ranked in the 15th percentile in that regard last season at nearly 17 tackles below expectations so if he's unable to get to that 1100 snap range again and doesn't get the sack and interception luck as well which I'd expect to kind of be the case he's not necessarily top 15 Worthy but that being said the defense is great right now you know kind of treating these players with some variance baked into their tackle efficiency and he is currently healthy it's it's not a huge drop to lb20 for me for Spain this year um okay lb21 is Quincy Williams of the New York Jets people loved what Quincy did last year myself included obviously a breakout season for him also graded incredibly well but another guy that was more of a volume dependent producer producer like a Spain where he played nearly 1100 snaps and just wasn't as efficient with those snaps as as we'd hop to see he did finish with 131 tackles but the ex expectation for a player in his exact role from last season was about 155 tackles so obviously he greatly under underd delivered their ranking in the fourth percentile of linebackers um in that regard the Jets like I mentioned with CJ Mosley projected as one of the more manhe heavy schemes from this coming season so you know for a player like Quincy Williams who isn't a scheme proof tackler and and has strong tackle competition in CJ Mosley and a good defensive line there it just keeps me from putting him inside that top 20 for this year I guess uh lb22 is another teammate of a linebacker who is ranked higher on this list it's taine Edmonds of the Chicago Bears um we talked about our lb6 TJ Edwards being the best IDP linebacker in Chicago Edmunds you know can be perfectly fine as well with some maybe good variants in his favor Chicago does rank tied for third as far as expected tackle efficiency based on their scheme so that's a huge Mark in his favor um as is being a 100% snap player with little concern about that changing right so the only issue to keep kind of Edmonds Edmonds from being even higher on this list is that track record of just inefficient and Bland results as a tackler um last year finished 13 tackles below expected that was a 23rd percentile Mark and he's almost always been in that kind of range for his career right just either doing as expected or below expected so he's not overly exciting by any means um but if you know by doing as expected or even slightly Below on 100% of snaps in a linebacker friendly defense like Chicago is what we get from him this year then that can definitely translate to low-end lb2 numbers for P across an entire season so he does sneak in here um okay one player that that hurt me to my core putting him in this top 24 I'm I'm trying to rank these guys as unbiased as possible and using the criteria we went um over at the top of the show it's Jerome Baker of the Seattle Seahawks at lb23 as most IDP managers will be aware baker has always kind of been this like big play Merchant when it comes to his fantasy production and that that's propped him up quite a bit on occasion but ultimately has been one of the most ineffective tacklers in recent years so for those watching on the YouTube and and can see his player card there you'll notice that he's delivering well above well below expected in tackle production every single season even when factoring in like his pass rush snaps and things of that nature that hurt typical linebacker efficiency so you finished in the bottom uh fifth percentile in tackles versus expected in 2023 he was sixth percentile in 2022 and seventh percentile in 2021 like is tackling his cheeks to say the least okay so obviously that's going to be a killer for him to get any higher on this list but what kind of puts him inside that top 24 is that Seattle defense which we we don't know for sure what it'll look like but we'd imagine it to be relatively friendly for linebacker production and he's kind of the clear favorite for a full-time role on this team I I lik Tyrell Dodson we talked about him in the IDP breakouts episode a couple weeks ago but there's no guarantee that Dodson will be a 100 100% player either and just given the NFL experience from Baker I think he's a safe favorite for that spot so maybe a change of scenery and more of a tackle friendly defense than what he was used to in Miami can give him better production and Tackle efficiency but to me he's a low-end lb2 at best for me right now okay last name on the top 24 and I'm so glad this man made it into the top 24 for me it's the prince of Asgard Alex anzelone of the Detroit Lions now anzelone finished as lb8 last season overall a really nice finish to the year of course but if we're talking about volume dependent producers at the linebacker position then anzelone is another prime example of that because much like Baker there isn't anything that that he does that is above and beyond what we're getting from just an average kind of linebacker in the NFL he played over a thousand defensive snaps last season rushed the passer 83 times that's high and and as a result finish with just 116 total tackles 15.4 below expected and even he even had three sacks um and based on those pass rush attempts he should have had closer to five right so he was two sacks below expected um he has a 9. 5% first Contact rate that ranked 51st 1.1% tackle rate at her behind the line of scrimmage that ranked 65th like he's mid there's no way around it don't let anyone try to convince you that he's special uh including Dan Campbell who refuses to take him off the field and ultimately that's the only reason why he's on this top 24 is because he doesn't leave the field and the Lions you know they don't have one of the better projected tackle efficient schemes either so that just kind of makes him more of the low-end lb2 um and probably that'll be the highest that that he'll get ranked for me um okay that's the the top 24 uh and pretty much most of the second tier um you know what uh since you guys as an IDP crowd are are always so great uh at tuning in and liking and subscribing um which if you haven't already you can do now I'll give you some quick hitters here to round out the second tier because uh it does go to lb28 um that tier 2 and and I love yall just to get ahead of you know questions about certain players that maybe weren't in the top 24 so just very quickly lb25 for me is Logan Wilson of the Cincinnati Bengals the Bengals defensive scheme projects as lower than than even the Lions he's another one that does basically as expected or worse as far as tackles go he was six percentile in tackles versus expected last year not great um lb 26 is Patrick Queen I I know this is the one that everybody's going to have higher but just keep in mind please coming off an incredible year last year year but goes to a new team that has been awful for linebacker Pro production in recent years the Pittsburgh Steelers who are even worse than the Bengals in linebacker tackle projection they do have also a tendency to rotate their guys a bit more which just gives me enough hesitancy for a guy like Queen who is not a scheme proof tackler either he finished ninth percentile in tackles versus expected last year so just keep that in mind before getting too over excited about Patrick Queen lb 27 is David long originally this was Jordan Brooks because I thought he'd maybe be the lb1 in Miami but it does seem like long will be wearing the green dot which makes him the safer bet for playing time so I did swap those two guys uh and lb28 is De Mario Davis who don't get me wrong I I love Davis arguably one of the best active NFL linebackers in the league but when it comes to IDP he's another one that's about as inefficient as they come as a tackler finished in the bottom first percentile in tackles versus expected in back-to-back Seasons now and and was fourth percentile before that in 2021 so he only makes the cut for basically fulfilling the safe 100% snap bet and and why he's kind of at the bottom of this tier uh along with the Saints not being a projected linebacker friendly defense so there you go the top two tiers for me and my top 28 linebackers for IDP heading into 2024 um as we get into those later tiers if you're reading the article including tier three you'll just see that it's it's just more about question marks those players heading into the year where I feel you know fairly confident about the playing time for this top 28 so that'll do it again check the full rankings article in the episode description um you'll also find a link to that linebacker scheme-based tackle projection article which I'd highly recommend for anyone that wants more about the position for IDP than than you'll find anywhere else and then the link to the scoring top scores tackles versus expected it's all on the same Link in in the episode description as well so thank you all as always for tuning in hopefully with this being a pre-recorded show there wasn't a significant injury that happened in the week following me recording this but if that is what happened you know and it leads to questions or if you have questions just always feel free free to please shout in the comments I'll be happy to interact and all it costs you is a like And subscribe so thank you all again and until next time peace out [Music]