Offense + IDP Draft Strategy & Rankings | PFF Fantasy Podcast

welcome everyone to the PFF fantasy podcast IDP Edition I'm John Macker and today I'm riding solo to provide some offense plus IDP draft ranking SL strategy I guess mostly strategy based discussion today but I'll throw in the rankings as well either way I I'll be diving into kind of where I want to Target my idps and drafts scoring how idps stack up some roster preference stuff um ideal builds and all that fun stuff hopefully to get you good folks ready for your 2024 fantasy drafts so let's get it [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music] all right Fantasy Draft season is in full swing at the moment we might even be in the middle of drafts right now I think I have like four going on at the moment with a lot more still to come so that's why I thought it might be helpful to kind of go over what my combined offense plus IDP draft strategy typically is um you know each year really I I tend to kind of stick to this strategy I'll sprinkle in some some rankings and favorite targets along the way as well so hopefully this approach that um has brought me a lot of success can transfer to you as well uh unless we're in a league together and haven't drafted yet in which case you turn the video off immediately and pay no attention to this um okay now that my league mates are hopefully gone we can get started and at the very first thing you know above all else to kind of be aware of is your league scoring and roster requirements this is some something everybody's going to tell you every single time and it is important right so I'll throw up the balance scoring settings um that I'm looking to use in most of my leagues we've seen these before when I've done the rankings episode um sometimes these rankings settings or the roster settings are only really possible on MFL um but that's why I love MFL so much because of that customization but if you're on sleeper for example you might find that your league skews either more tackle heavy or more big play heavy as it's kind of harder to tweak the settings to get that balance and that's okay we we can touch on that as well as we kind of go through this walkth through here and how I'm kind of valuing those players as well specifically as it comes to kind of tackle heavy leagues since that'll probably be the biggest difference here so um the other thing is the roster requirements uh this is going to change from League to league as well so just wanted to kind of use like the maxed IDP setting where we'll have maybe 10 offense 10 IDP can be 11 of each as well doesn't change the approach all that much um you know whether it's 10 or 11 but you know just to kind of cover all our bases here um but you know just in case you're you're Maybe in a league that only offers say one total IDP slot or less than five for example there's nothing wrong with that but for those of you that are in that kind of format I I would suggest fading IDP basically as long as possible um because that pool of players just becomes so much bigger that we can find similar value near the end of drafts compared to where maybe the first person in your league draft at IDP right so all kind of the things to be aware of as we head into our drafts but you know for the most part the ones that require the most kind of strategy are are the leagues where IDP roster requirements are a little bit bigger and the scoring is a little bit more balanced right so that's kind of the purpose of this um now last thing with these settings in mind I'm going to throw up some numbers on the screen here so I apologize for that um and it it you know it's not going to look pretty or anything like that um and I apologize even more for the audio crowd who is just going to hear me talk numbers for a second but I'd recommend to please come down to the YouTube channel and at me in the comments if if you're listening on audio um also don't forget to like and sub subscribe while you're here um so okay so I included the breakdown um I or I like to include this breakdown when I write up like draft strategy articles for the offensive only side of things when I do them for pff.com so I wanted to provide kind of a similar breakdown of our offense and IDP context um in terms of like how these players are scoring with with this setup right which again is going to change if you're in tackle heavy league so we'll start with who is kind of making up the majority of our top five scorers on the year um it's quarterbacks running backs and wide receivers they they dominated the top of the scoring leaders they do this every season it's no surprise there so that'll lead into kind of our first draft tip which is to Target offense first and foremost right this is one of the more obvious ones but um just worth talking about again right because running back wide receivers they should absolutely be the primary targets um you might find yourself going quarterbacks for for quarterbacks with top five upside as well but if it's not superflex we can also kind of wait on that position a little longer because we're often getting a stronger production floor from our later round quarterbacks as well so focusing in on like running backs and wide receivers early who have top five top 10 potential and then increasing our odds of hitting on those players by drafting them early and often is going to be the optimal strategy here right so um you know as we move kind of beyond the top five and into more of the um into more of the top 25 that's where we start to see some of these IDP IDP positions work into our top scorers um because they're not overly nerfed in in this type of scoring anyways like that can also happen where idps just don't score nearly as well as offensive players in which case again we're we're only going to fade them further compared to the offensive side of the ball so um you'll notice that the edge position is our top IDP position in balanced formats because we want to provide value to the position that the NFL values more which dline is definitely more valuable than linebacker in NFL terms and is the case where you know we're rewarding sacks nicely as well as tackles um it's our edges who have the biggest um Edge I guess compared to the other position now um keeping this in mind I'm not necessarily recommending that we target Edge Defenders within the top 10 or top 25 of picks right now um because like we just talked about they aren't necessarily the ones that have the top overall overall top five upside in scoring so we want to increase our odds of again hitting on those players like running back like wide receiver potentially even quarterback and once we feel like we've covered those B pretty well that's when we can kind of turn our attention to our first idps um specifically The Edge position and for me that starts at the very earliest around the end of the fourth round right and only with the elite edges that we know can provide consistent production every single year and have an advantage at least in terms of talent compared to their peers because defensive line it is the position that relies significantly more on Talent relative to the rest of the the IDP positions right so for me guys like Max Crosby TJ watt Aiden Hutchinson Mike Micah Parsons Nick Bosa miles Garrett whatever order you want to rank those guys they're the ones where if I felt I really wanted that tier one Edge option on my roster this is the range that I'd be kind of targeting them um but you don't have to because we we have some T Targets later on where if we still want to take swings on offensive upside right now now which I would recommend still you'll that then we can find some other Edge options a little bit later as well that that have similar upside um you'll also notice that I have a few tight ends in there um before the actually sorry I got the wrong slide up um this is the one uh yeah this is you'll notice that there's a few tight ends in there um despite tight ends not having that top 25 or top 50 upside from the the previous chart um and then that's purely because of it just being just a smaller pool of players to choose from the same kind of thing to quarterback as quarterback to a lesser extent scarcity at those positions like tight end specifically creates value in making sure that we're set there before moving on to some of these deeper positions um if that makes sense even if I you know you were following on the screen and a little bit confused of what I had going on there um but yeah this is that's kind of what we're looking at so um that's kind of the the the very early rounds um before I go into the later rounds though I do want to give a quick shout out to our good friends at good um one sec let me put my goods on gter offers stylish sunnies starting at only $25 a pair talking sunglasses here with a one-year warranty and 30-day free returns I'm wearing mine right now I haven't bought a new pair of sunglasses for almost 15 years um until I discovered gter not just because it was 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strategy here most people uh so now through those kind of first four rounds um I'd say you're going to have a pretty similar strategy as far as offensive first that's not you know anything groundbreaking there maybe they mix in one IDP there maybe they fading IDP even longer uh and as we get into rounds like five to eight for example that's where we're going to start seeing more people dip into the IDP pot especially for more linebackers right and even more so if it's a tackle heavy League um but in this more balanced scoring or if it's more big play Heavy specifically the priority should still be on the defensive line first they continue to be the ones who make up the majority of topc scoring idps through our top 100 fantasy finishers um on the year so I'll pull that chart up now so you could kind of get an idea of how that breakdown looks um for where these positions finished now you don't have to necessarily take one of those Elite edges like I mentioned before because there are still going to be some value valuable edges who can produce fairly similarly like talented guys who are playing on a number of snaps they may not have the overall top upside as like a Nick Bosa or Micah Parson's for example but they're still really good and and could still serve well as our Edge one every single week so some of the better values that I think we can grab here you know into the eighth round or slightly after if we're if we're taking our first Edge in that range I'm looking at guys like Alex heith Germaine Johnson ran Gary Gregory rouso Josh sweat um because people will be taking like the Kayon tibidos Brian Burns khil Max much higher than them but I'm fine focusing on the offense a bit longer and targeting our guys here a bit later who I think have just as good or better of a shot at outperforming those higher ADP edges um you'll also notice that in this range like the you know 5 to8 round 5 to8 range you'll see linebackers start to get sprinkled in uh a little bit more as we kind of get later and again more in those tackle heavy formats I'd still suggest waiting until about the nth or 10th or 12th round between there before grabbing your first linebacker just because there are still a lot of them that are full-time or close to full-time players and who can produce similarly to finish like top 12 or or top 24 right so you'll notice I I have foyer ran zier this is the slide you were looking at before um they're all kind of mixed in here in that 8 to 12 range for the drafters who want maybe that one anchor linebacker so to speak but you don't have to grab a linebacker this early again I'd make sure that we're still prioritizing Talent at defensive line taking those upside swings at running back wide receiver quarterback tight end through these first eight rounds or so and and I promise we'll find you linebacker value later on um and again I'll I'll include the full guide and rankings um article up on that's up for free on pff.com I'll link that in the episode description because I realize I'm kind of um showing a lot here on the the YouTube that isn't as you know clean to kind of follow so I do apologize for that um okay one more look at the kind of scoring leader breakdowns here before talking like favorite later round Target for those that you know tend to fade ad IDP um if we look at the top 150 top 200 and even into the top 300 overall scores on the year it's a relatively similar breakdown across those positions from those finishing ranges quarterback definitely starts to thin out as we'd expect so we should have our starting quarterback through the first eight rounds I'd say or for superflex both starting quarterbacks should be locked up potentially even before then um same thing with tight end we want one viable weekly starter um hopefully with upside prior to the ninth round or later um and at least two running backs and two wide receivers and and one high-end Edge to to kind of round things out right they should all generally be the priorities through eight rounds after that we can start get a getting a little looser depending on how drafts are going like if you're in a DT required format I'd be looking to grab like a high-end defensive tackle a Quinn and Williams DeForest Buckner Jeffrey Simmons who whoever you like there um the main thing to note here is that we are not targeting any defensive backs yet um I'm fine to dip into the linebacker pool in this 9 to 12 range but DBS we're going to wait on even though we can see you know on the screen here um that safeties make up 13 and a half% of the top 150 scores with these settings which is just slightly more than linebacker it's also a much deeper position since every single team has almost two full-time safeties and nearly three full-time cornerbacks and production is incredibly volatile year to year as to who those top scorers are going to be right so don't be overconfident in your ability to kind of pinpoint who's going to lead the position in scoring by spending draft valuable draft capital on them it's just not worth it with so many of them having a shot to get there that's why you won't find any defensive backs ranked among the first 12 12 rounds for me um and even then I'm only sprinkling them in after that for those that feel they really want one of the elite options you know be it Derwin or or Winfield or whoever right and using that as kind of the absolute earliest you should be considering them but really we should be fading the defensive back position um for quite a while so safeties Corners they're going to be in the final rounds for me and and should be for you as well after everything you know we just touched on so that kind of leads quickly to some I guess later round targets players likely to go beyond the top 20 or later at their position um and players that I'm considering kind of as targets to keep on my like draft watch list if I am fading the position at defensive line like we've touched on a few of the the top 12 potential guys earlier but beyond that you you want to consider guys that are going to be playing a ton and have decent pass rush upside to kind of land sacks you know you think about a couple rookies like aatu latu or Jared verse they both should be on the field a lot and have strong College profiles coming out um but since they're rookies and and IDP drafters can't really sort by previous year's points to find them they often get overlooked right same thing with guys like uchenna and wosu or Matt judon who missed a lot of last year but should be in for volume heavy roles uh and this that's going to be one of the main things where if you're fading the position you can use my rankings you can use you know um the projections and things like that to find guys who are going to see a lot of snaps to help you figure out you know where you should be looking next Once the elite options come off the board right so you know dorrence Armstrong in Washington we talked about him uh I think it was the breakout episode zidus Smith in Cleveland I feel like maybe bounceback episode or sleepers episode Baron Browning in Denver I I think could be a very volume heavy player and has shown some decent pass rush metrics in the past again you can use the rankings to find a lot of these reliable snap heavy players with upside kind of later on so um at linebacker it's it's a really similar approach it snaps like that's what matters more than anything else so while people are scooping up you know ran or or fo luon or zier Franklin Nick Bolton all those past strong performers we can assemble like a pretty gross looking linebacker core made purely from potential for full-time snaps and assemble what is going to look like probably the most disgusting linebacker core you've ever seen but your offense and every other position is going to be loaded and it's okay to have a non-sexy linebacker Corp because again we're looking at snaps we're looking at production and what these guys can do with those snaps like I'll give you an example of one that I'm doing right now right so in this in this draft that's currently going I didn't take a linebacker until the 15th round while the first one came off the board in round five right so I started with Kaiser white um then EJ speed in the 18th Denzel Perman in the 20th dandre Campbell in the 21st Blake Cashman in the 23rd and de Mario Davis in the 25th like these are all players that project for 100% or close to 100% of their team's defensive snaps right now which you know is all is about all the sex appeal that you want from a linebacker core especially if you can Hammer offensive value right so this was um this was a superflex draft as well so the first 14 rounds for me looked like this I I could pull that up as well um I took Josh Allen paired him with CJ strad uh so we got potentially two top five quarterbacks there we got Travis etana May rb1 last year's rb3 um olve Wadd Debo Samuel as my top three wide receivers Mark Andrews my tight end one then some high-end depth at wide receiver with Stefon Diggs T Higgins George Pickins Aaron Jones as my rb2 and then again attacking defensive line first using edges uh Will Anderson and ran Gary as my my starters um and this was a DT required League I didn't take any defensive lineman prior to the 12th round and in the 13th round in a DT required League I got my dt1 Quinn and Williams there so I love this build it's and a again it's one that I I do pretty much every single year and leads to a great success across many leagues every single season so if you're seeing linebackers come off the board you don't panic if you're seeing DBS come off the board Don't Panic there's going to be guys late that you can get again I pulled those guys up on the screen they're all projected for 100% of snaps again um but if they don't work out like we're not spending high draft Capital to get them if they end up playing 75% snaps so they get hurt again it's a position that we can replace in season um and not lose a ton of value there because you think about last year Blake Cashman Nate lanman real Bernard EJ speed these guys all performed really well when they were in games they all came off Waiver Wires last year and and and performed well so it's the same thing every single year at the linebacker position and at the defensive back position um so being able to find you know or Target defensive line early because it is going to be harder to find those defensive linemen off Waiver Wires just becomes the more valuable approach right there linebackers and DBS are much more replaceable in season um and yeah every single week there's going to be a new 100% option on the waiver wire even if it helps you only fill in for like a week or two so just be careful how much you're investing in the linebacker position because again there's a lot of value left on the board coming back to you know the offensive side of things where we can really load up on our Best Bets for you know top five top 10 upside at those positions especially superflex like Josh Allen CJ Stroud shouldn't be a fair superflex snap um stack in in redraft but here we are so that that's going to do it I mean I know this was a little different than our usual episode talking about like specific idps or lists you know those kinds of things but I I wanted to put this out here at least kind of General thoughts just to get them because it is something that I get a lot of questions about in season so I hope you find that helpful I I realize it's it's a little bit all over the place it may not be you know necessarily the exact rankings that you're looking for again those are linked into the episode description but I at least wanted to put my thoughts out there um and kind of strategize about how we should be looking at our 2024 fantasy drafts that have offense and IDP and if you do have more questions you can shout them in the YouTube comments reach out to me on the Twitter as well um in the DMS at PFF score Macker and I'm happy to helpful help help you out as much as I can there so that's kind of the purpose of of this after all is just to kind of help and strategize for your IDP drafts before the 2024 season so um you'll find all my rankings on pff.com if you want a deeper dive into the exact players and and you know things like that um but uh I also again included the offense plus IDP rankings slft strategy article in the episode description um next week it's our last full IDP offseason episode where I'm having the tremendous presence himself Adam Markham from the IDP show on to talk Darkhorse IDP 1es before we get into the regular season so again might be some players to keep in mind there that we're we're looking at that are going later in in ADP that we can Target as our lead um idps at each position um so hopefully you'll join us for that uh I'll also have a YouTube exclusive early next week breaking down my top IDP takeaways from pre season week 3 you could find the p uh preseason week 2 version um on the YouTube right now but until then peace out [Music]