2024 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings | PFF Fantasy Podcast

Intro [Music] welcome everyone to the PFF fantasy podcast I'm John Macker and today we're wrapping up our 2024 rankings uh on the offensive side of the ball by looking at the tight end position and joining me to help sort through it all pff's lead fantasy analyst Nathan yonke Nate how you doing today I am doing well just had the Scot Fishbowl this past weekend I've been doing some mock drafts this week writing several articles every day so for me it feels like we're already full swinging to things into fantasy season I know most people won't have their normal drafts for another month or so from now but I'm like it's time we're here let's go like three weeks till the Hall of Fame game something like that yeah yeah no it's uh it definitely feels like fullon fantasy season at this point like I yeah most drafts are not for another month I I have at least least one going on right now like a slow draft and it takes at least a month right to to prep for the 2024 season so you know getting through all these rankings and stuff like that where that that's kind of the reason why we're doing it right here um you know near the well I guess we're in July now yeah in July I was going to say the end of June um losing my mind with h with time already but yeah it's G to come fast right so that's why we're going through all these rankings we went through quarterbacks we did running backs we did wide receivers last week so we're going to break these uh tight ends down into you know know smaller groups based on our consensus rankings like we did with those three positions and take the average of mine and Nate's ranks and see where we differ which players were higher and lower on than each other and then of course compared to ADP as well so um for reference we're going to be using uh sleepers updated 1 QB ADP as of uh July 10th which is today so let's get right into it our consensus top five here um there aren't too many major differences from ADP in this range so Tier 1 we'll start right at the top our tight end one is Sam leaport of the Detroit Lions and tight end two is Travis Kelce of the Taylor Swift boyfriends so nothing different from ADP there um at tight end three we both have Mark Andrews who is tight end four in ADP and then tight end four for us is Trey McBride who's going as tight end three in ADP so this is kind of our um first discrepancy here in our rankings Nate though not like a huge one you have them as tight end four I have them as tight end five so two spots lower than consensus for me I guess but you're closer to consensus for McBride um than I am so we'll let you kick off the argument for him to be here and then I'll explain why I'm also a little bit lower than him as well yeah I think for me the big thing is just comparing Mark Andrews to Trey McBride if you look at a number of other um ADP sources it flipped a lot of different places pretty even split some have Andrews higher some have McBride higher I personally fine with either one I think some of it has to do with um how risky you want to be with Trey McBride only having the one-year sample size really a good play so I think he's kind of the more exciting option because there's a chance he does a lot better this year and can improve from where he's at where Mark Andrews we know exactly who he is and he's been a top six uh tight end in fantasy points per game each of the past five seasons um there's very few players at any position that have had that kind of consistency these past five years um McBride did grade a little bit better so that kind of goes in his favor but the big thing for me is that the Cardinals drapped in Mar and Harrison Jr McBride had the highest targets per R run last year and I think it's going to be harder for him to repeat that I think Harrison's going to take a lot more targets than the wide receivers in Arizona we're seeing last year that even a couple percentage Point decrease in a Target share should be enough to put Andrews ahead of McBride yeah that that's pretty much exactly what it is for me right like I mean he's he's two spots lower than that tight end 380p for me but like to be clear I obviously still really like Trey McBride I think he's going to be a big part of the offense in Arizona this year I just don't think yeah like he's the number one target earner on the team anymore with them bringing in Marvin Harrison Jr like those were kind of the tie breakers for me and why I have like another um tight end even as my tight end four ahead of McBride who we'll talk about here shortly is just that as much as I think you know top five perfectly fine spot for McBride I think there's you know a good chance that he sees a dip in Targets this year where you know I don't have that concern necessarily for players like um like Mark Andrews or or Evan Ingram for example so McBride also 0.8 Red Zone targets per game um for the year just an increase to one per game with Zack ZZ out of the lineup there were a lot of other tight ends who who saw better utilization than that in those you know high scoring chance areas of the field and again it's probably why he also just had the three touchdowns all of last year I think you know part of that too is just being like an average offense as good as Marvin Harrison Jr and Kyler Murray are I still think they probably rank around like League average at best if we're looking at the 32 teams as a whole so how much of those scoring chances um are going to increase for McBride I don't know plus Marvin Harrison Jr probably gonna take some as well so I'm just not totally convinced that you know he's going to improve in any kind of like dramatic fashion or anything like that with touchdowns you know also being such a big part of tight end scoring I just weighed that a little bit more into the the couple of players I have ranked ahead of him again still tight end five but he's in that larger kind of tier two tier two pool of of tight ends for me this year for Fantasy where the guys at the very top of that tier two Mark Andrews um who arguably is tier one should be tier one maybe um and Evan Ingram I think have just a much better chance of leading their team in targets and receiving production this year and just to play a little bit of Devil's Advocate with Mark Andrews there is Isaiah likely who has played well in Andrew's absence there's a chance likely starts see a little bit more playing time and Andrews a little less and there is also a chance Andrews doesn't score as much touchdowns with Derrick Henry at running back there's a chance that they start using Henry more than they were their past running backs near the uh goal line especially so there's a chance we see Andrew see a decrease from where he's been at which is why I think Sam leaport and Travis Kelsey there's a pretty big gap between them and this second tier of tight ends but still like you were saying we aren't expecting bride to score ton of touchdowns either so yeah yeah that's the thing like I I have leaport and Kelsey in in tier one and Andrews like I just kept going back and forth on him adps there's a bigger Gap there between leaport and Kelsey and Andrews as well like for when he is tight in three um you know a round or so so um it does make sense there definitely stuff that you got to factor in there for for Mark Andrews this year as well um our consensus tight end five is Dalton concade of the Buffalo Bills he's going as tight end 5 in ADP as well so nothing like overly noteworthy to discuss there um which takes us into the Tier 2 back half of our top 10 um which are which starts out with my tight end four um Evan Ingram Nate your tight end eight adp's tight end eight so for me obviously it appears um I am much higher on Ingram than consensus and I'll kind of get into to why that is and and I guess one thing that really stood out to me with Ingram from last year and and I think has just as good a shot as happening again this year is that he did lead all tight ends in targets last season with 140 7.9 per game which was second behind only T.J hackinson who didn't play the whole year um there was also Calvin Ridley on the team last year um who played every game and commanded 132 targets himself uh Ridley's gone I don't think there's another player on that team in Jacksonville who's commanding 130 targets in 2024 other than Ingram um Ingram pretty much everywhere you look too like for tight end Target projections whether it's with us Mike Clay CBS whoever like has Ingram top two among tight ends in projected targets again this year so for me tight end 8 feels low as far as ADP goes maybe tight end four is high but if he leads the team and targets again this year which I I think he has the best shot of anyone in Jacksonville top five feels like it is in the cards for him again and you know the other thing with Calvin Ridley being gone is it opens up a ton of Red Zone targets for for Ingram as well because Lawrence loved Calvin Ridley in that area of the field last year he Target him targeted him 25 times in the Red Zone last year which was by far the most on the team but also tied for the third most in the entire League last year so if Ingram who I I think is you know again the best bet to absorb those opportunities even takes on like half of what Ridley got in the Red Zone last year like it's a pretty significant bump in his his fantasy production potential um for a player who already finished as the PPR tight end 4 with just four touchdowns in 2023 so you know I'm looking at him at tight end eight I know he's not the sexiest option there but to me like I I think he is a value at that at that cost right now and and why I kind of moved him into this top five for for targets and and potential increase scoring opportunities alone there I do like your point on the touchdown opportun there I think that will be important for him this year and if he's able to score more touchdowns that will be huge for him uh for me a big part of tight end is I think tight end is the position in fantasy where a player's Talent at receiving most closely resembles um where they are in fantasy because teams aren't going to have two excellent tight ends we very rarely have ever see that happen we running back if you have a talented running back if you have just one of them that's great but the second you have a second one that decreases both of their fantasy value a ton so we see this consistency at tight end that we don't see at other positions Travis Kelsey consistently among the top one or two tight ends each year we've seen George KD consistently top six we've seen Mark Andrews consistently top six Hockinson the past three years has been in that category as well a couple years ago was Darren Waller who was consistently getting there and you don't see that as much at other positions like running back it's only Christian mcaffrey who's been year after year and then you see someone in the top six one year then they drop down maybe they drop back up again but um so for me I'm concerned about the talent with Ingram compared to some of the other tight ends he is our 14th highest graded tight end at receiving over the past two years uh below some guys like Gerald Everett Cole KT uh David njoku Pat fouth Uh Jake Ferguson all guys that we have lower on our list than Ingram and then for me part of the concern as well was last year a lot of his great games occurred later in the season uh when Christian Kirk was out with an injury so his fantasy points per game increased dramatically once Kirk was out since Jacksonville's offense um we like to think of offenses kind of simplistically of like here's the stock guy here's the outside guys and a lot of offenses we see guys move around a lot but Jacksonville is a little bit more on the simplistic side of like you always see Kirk and Ingram as the two inside receivers last year was Ridley and Z Jones whenever he was healthy but a bunch of other receivers on the outside so I'm not sure if he will observe or too much of those outside targets since they did add Gabe Davis who um has been decent at scoring touchdowns I'm not sure how much of a red zone threat he'll necessarily be but uh that's one of the stats that he has stood out in so I wouldn't be surprised at the outside targets kind of stay the outside targets the inside targets stay the inside targets and when Kirk went down then Ingram absorbed absorbed all of those inside targets and now Kirk will be back so I believe he was averaging 10.4 P fantasy points per game with Christian Kirk last year uh similarly 10.4 fantasy points per game the previous year so kind of coincidence that it was exactly the same but that puts him right around tight end eight in terms of fantasy points per game production and then there's also the fact that he is turning 30 we do see receivers around that Aid start to decline a little bit which ingrams has done a lot better in terms of his fantasy production than his real life production in terms of at least PFF grade so I'm not as concerned about his age but it's at least a factor in my consideration as well yeah no I think that's fair and yeah it's not even that I'm necessarily like expecting Ingram to you know absorb like the outside targets or anything like that but I do think like Christian Kirk has a chance to play a little bit more outside this year we saw him you know kind of start his career a lot more outside as well and with you know Gabe Davis and and Brian Thomas Jr kind of these inconsistent options I'm not like overly sold on on those guys kind of being immediate you know impact players every single week in Jacksonville too so I think you know Kirk and and Ingram being the the kind of consistent pieces in that offense is kind of what I'm I'm banking on here and and then obviously Ingram you know even still with Kirk with Ridley in the lineup like still getting such a high Target rate per game um with on with Trevor Lawrence at at quarterback back is is going to be a big part of it and and especially hopefully in the red zone as well so yeah we'll we'll see how that one plays out obviously you know this is not they're they're guys they're all guys that I have in my like second tier here but angera obviously I do have a little bit higher in that second tier just because that potential to um lead his team and targets so we we we'll see if he can do that again yeah and I will note like the touchdown thing is huon's fantasy production has been completely volume in the past he's scored four touchdowns last year four the year before that hasn't scored more than four touchdowns since his rookie year where he scored six so F he is able to score another two three touchdowns that by itself would be huge for him yeah for sure um all right and then tight end seven for each of us is Kyle Pitts he's going as tight end six in ADP um and then we get another potential discrepancy here with our consensus tight end eight George KD um he's going as tight end seven Nate you have him as tight end six I have him as tight end eight so we're each one spot higher and one spot lower than ADP so tell me the case for KD here and then I'll I guess I'll explain why I'm like just slightly lower KD for me I think he's going to do basically exactly what he's done the past several years uh he's ranked among the top six fantasy tight ends and fantasy points per game each of the past six years Travis Kelce is the only other tight end to do that Christian mcaffrey only other player at any other position to do that and that's if you're pretty generous on the game played threshold with the injur or Seasons where mcaffrey was injured but KD just has been uh very good in terms of PFF grades production he was our second highest graded tight end last year in terms of receiving grade behind Travis Kelce if you look at the past two years the past three years anytime you add another year to it it's still Kelsey number one KD number two and then the gap between Kelsey and KD is relatively small compared to the gap between KD and everyone below that and you have to go back I think 2012 is when I finally found someone in that range and Rob gronowski was finally grading as good as those two but um he has just throughout his career been so good on a per playay basis and then just held back because he's in the 49ers offense that is more runhe heavy than basically any other team so he's not running as many routes as all these other tight ends but he's continues to be very efficient and then recently it's been the addition of Brock pie that's really helped his game as well because he's been able to get big plays he's graded well whenever he's run deeper targets and Jimmy greppo was just not able to get him those passes and Brock p is and he's also been used in the Red Zone a little bit more so um for me he's been the top in the top six every year so I kind of expect the same from him it's not the most exciting thing because he's just done it year in and year out and he's still has that cap on his upside because the 49ers like to run the ball so much but that has been true every other year of his career yeah no I'm with you he's he's amazing arguably you know arguably one of the best Titans or maybe the best tight end in the NFL you know um probably cares more NFL value than actual fantasy value even though the fantasy value is still amazing right but like yeah I'm with you I think part of it too like for me just knocking him down a little bit just expecting a little bit more regression here as you know getting a little bit older in that run heavy offense 5.6 targets per game last season um rank tied for 11th with Jake Ferguson um Ferguson saw slightly more Red Zone targets per game but like he had a thousand yard season last year he was amazing and a lot of that was kind of dependent on what he did after the catch as well 7.3 yards after catch per reception that was top five at the position but when I was looking at you know correlation for Yak per reception for for the tight end position it didn't really correlate very strongly at all so I I do worry about that for a player who is now 30 years old um that we maybe get a little bit natural regression there but not so much that he's like outside my top 10 or anything but just enough that I'm just slightly lower than his ADP I guess is right in that range and these guys are all you know gonna come off the board one after another here the the the kles the pits and you know even angram in the in that spot so one of those three guys I'm I'm very happy to get for sure yeah and this is like generally the range that I happy to get a tight end I've been kind of okay recently waiting because there are a couple of players that I'm F waiting on like last year was like I need this one player to be here and if not then I'm much worse off at tight end but knowing that I can get KD or pittz or Ingram all around that range that's made me feel a little bit more okay not drafting one of those Elite tight ends because I don't think the gap between the guys we just talked about kidle pits and grum is that large compared to concade McBride it just concade and McBride have that they're very young they're exciting they were high draft picks they could be this huge player where we know a lot more about who Ingram and KD who are both 30 Rs players and then pits is more of a projection that people are concerned about because of what's happened the past couple years yeah that's the thing right like it's it's probably the the deepest it's been in recent years the the tight end position as far as like potential high-end scores go so you got to love that and and and waiting on these guys into the later rounds is I think a perfectly fine strategy for the position now because we're going to get some decent production out of out of all these guys so um including a couple that that round out our top 10 here we both have um David and joku as our tight end nine and we both have Jake Ferguson as our tight end 10 so each of those guys are are one spot higher than their current ADP um and that leads us into our our next five players with our consensus Tier 3 tight end 11 being Dallas gard and our consensus tight end 12 being rookie Brock Bowers um who is going as tight and nine according to sleepers ADP so Nate we're a bit lower on Bowers than that I have Miss tight end 12 you have Miss tight end 11 so why don't you start with what the hesitation is to to kind of fully Embrace Bowers among the top 10 because we just saw rookie tight end finishes tight end won last year right with another one who did finish in the top 12 as well so people are starting to believe um in the rookie tight end again so um tell us why Bowers at least we need to maybe temper expectations slightly um for me one part is Michael Mayers still being on the team he was a top 35 draft pick the year before and played significant playing time and he is very good at being a well-rounded tight end he can run block that's a lot of what he was used for last year and then slowly but surely getting used more as a receiver last year and like I just did last week a study on utilization for running backs wide receivers tight ends and the roles that they play in the offense and for tight ends in particular how much harder it is if you are not the primary early down tight end for a team if you're just into two tight end sets and just playing on third Downs then you're still not going to be scoring nearly as many points as the other tight ends so part of it is the concern about mayor and then part of it uh just comparing him to the guy that I have directly ahead of him but ADP has reversed Jake Fergus and like in terms of competition for targets they both have a top tier wide receiver on the team Devonte Adams yeah he's getting a little older not playing as well but he's still seeing that Target share both have a pretty decent wide receiver to Brandon Cooks jacobe Meyers so that's you can argue one or the other but still they're both going to be decent wide receiver twos on their teams uh not much wide receiver depth after that not going to see a lot of competition for targets from running back but if I have the option between the two give me the one who won graded fairly well last season and it's catching passes from Dak Prescott compared to the quarterback situation with the Raiders so that for me that's a huge part of it is if I waited at tight end and I'm trying to get a young guy with high upside even though Ferguson we've seen a little bit more from him I'd much rather have Ferguson this year yeah that's a thing for for for me as well like I love Brock Bowers as a prospect but you just look at this offense as a whole like we talked about our love for Devonte Adams last episode when over the wide receiver ranking so obviously big Believers in him kind of dominating The Targets in Las Vegas but like there's I I mean I guess there's definitely a chance right that he emerges as the second best option on the team like I I'd probably give him maybe that edge in in year one but he has competition there like you said with jacobe Meyers and then at the tight end position Michael Mayer is gonna find his way to get on the field as well but like it's just really like you said the offense as a whole with with whether it's Gardner muu or Aiden Connell at quarterback like I don't think it's a good enough offense to kind of lift the value of Bowers into that top 10 at the position like I think you know tight end for for Fantasy has definitely really improved like I said this year going into this year as well and and Bowers is can be a part of that but I just find myself liking some of the the other assets a bit better like a jake Ferguson like you said and um you know a lot can change right from from this year to next and I'm sure it'll be you know for the best for Bowers which is why for dynasty I think he's still an elite option and and can push to be even top five if his quarterback situation improves next year and you know he flashes that potential this year and he has one of those you know um big years as a rookie or at least in spurts where we we start to get it hopeful again but for 2024 at least I'm I'm just kind of tempering expectations a bit and why he's like tight in 12 for me yeah and I think it's worth thinking how risk averse you want to be how risky you want to be if you're looking at who has the best odds of being the overall tight end one this season I would probably say Bowers has better odds of being the overall tight end one this season Than Jake Ferguson even though the odds are both fairly small for both players because we still have Travis Kelsey Sam lorta who have much better odds of being tight end one and you go down the list but um if you are hoping to get tight end one value this late in the draft then maybe Bowers is the guy but I just think all the ranges of possibilities of what could happen for tight end there are a lot more good outcomes for Ferguson than there are Bowers yeah I think that's a fair way to look at it for sure um after Bowers it is T.J Hawkinson who obviously you talk about risk adversity he comes with significant question marks that that having that late season ACL tear um we're right in line with consensus n tight end 13 probably not too much to get into here obviously if he's fully healthy he's comfortably inside that top 12 and if he it comes out that he's going to miss at the start of the year then you know he probably Falls a bit further down this list right we just don't know for sure yet so we could save that conversation until we know more um but that takes us into our consensus tight end 14 um Pat frith I have him as tight end 14 and you're in line with ADP at tight end 16 so I'll make the case here for for Pat um and I talked about in the bounceback episode a few weeks ago as well I I I like him quite a bit for this season like obviously 2023 sucked for Fri Muth um he was essentially a non-factor in that Steelers offense um he had finished as the PPR tit end 7 in 20122 where he earned 96 targets 723 receiving yards that dropped pretty significantly 44 targets 308 receiving yards last year just 6.4 fantasy points per game finished as the PPR tight end 30 through his 11 games last year like that they just didn't use him at all right outside of that you know one game I think it was where he finished as like the the tight end one that week it was just the abnormality compared to the rest of his season but 15.9% Target rate that wasn't anything special uh especially considering you know again the the year prior he was involved pretty heavily in that offense 22.1% Target rate and and posted eight games where he had more than three receptions um where we just weren't seeing that from him last year on a weekly basis and you know I I think for him for me like one of the biggest reasons that I'm I'm kind of hopeful for him is Arthur Smith coming in as the offensive coordinator I I I like the Falcons um tight end usage even though it didn't work out for Kyle pittz I like that transferring to Pat fryou and the Steelers a little bit more so Arthur Smith Falcons ranked top three in the NFL an overall Target rate to the tight end in each of the past three seasons they ranked first in 2021 and 2023 and again it didn't work out for Kyle pittz um but I think there's a clear difference between the two players and how they're utilized because Fri Muth much more of a traditional kind of inline tight end which was more utilized in Arthur Smith's offense um as his team's ranked third in tight end Target rate from an inline alignment since 2021 um and that was something that KY pits just rarely did for Atlanta right just 29 and a half% of his snaps came from an inline alignment since 2021 where Fri Muth was up closer to 68% of his snaps from that line that that alignment um and then you add in like again Deontay John Johnson not being on the team he was he's been their top Target earner on a Perot basis essentially every year that he's been with the team he's gone to Carolina I I like his chances here at Fri Muth of of not just bouncing back but you know having a strong year at least a year where we can trust him in fantasy again and he he was being drafted as tight end 17 when we did the bounceback episode he's already moved up a spot to tight end 16 since then I'm going to keep trying to kind of drag that that ADP up for Pat here to tight end 14 where I think it belongs but um yeah you tell me why why he's maybe a little bit lower on the list for you yeah I'll try to swat it back down but um first off I will say he's definitely a talented tight end um all of his per route metrics for us over his career have been fairly good compared to other tight ends yeah he's not among the top five or so but definitely if we were just talking about Talent of tight ends ignoring everything about their situation who they have as their quarterback who they're competing with for targets he'd probably be within the top 10 tight ends for me just in terms of that but for me I am worried about Arthur Smith's offense and how much they like using a lot of tight ends because last year it was Kyle pittz jnu Smith Michael puit all had over 400 snaps but no one was the clear number one tight end in terms of their role uh Parker hessie led the team in snaps the year before Hayden Hurst Lee Smith with 300 plus snaps to go along with Pitts and that was the one year where pits was able to be tight end six but even going back to his time in with the Tennessee Titans it was a very similar tight end rotation where they had guys that were clear blockers they had guys who were in between they had guys who were clear receivers and it was um Janu Smith who was having that role of we hoped that he would break out each year and he kept on not doing it with the Titan titans uh Jeff Swain was with those teams Anthony fer and Michel prud again and Michael puit at over 400 snaps in 2019 in Arthur Smith's offense he did it again in 2023 and mich Cole puit is back with Arthur Smith with Pittsburgh and that's along with them drafting Darnell Washington in the third round not this year but the year before they also have Connor Hayward who had significant playing time I would not be at all surprised if all four tight ends played over 300 snaps this season and all had their own roles within the offense you do make a good point that Fri Muth is a more well-rounded tight end who can stay into pass block that isn't always how he's been used with Pittsburgh but I think he's at least capable of it so I think it depends if Arthur Smith views him ahead of all these other guys in a way that they trust him to be on the field all the time like we would hope he would be but I wouldn't be surprised if he is rotating for snaps just like everyone else and not seeing enough snaps in some situations which won't give him enough pass routes needed to be a fantasy starting tight end yeah I mean it's definitely a concern right like that's we see we've been frustrated with Arthur Smith and the past and and yeah I guess that's kind of the way that I'm I'm viewing Pat Fruth is just as a capable tight end able to play in all those situations where you know all the the the tight ends that you named there before like none of those guys I mean outside of Kyle pittz obviously as a receiver are as particularly special at anything that they do right so attacking that position with a committee to try and fill those holes for the offense I think was probably part of the plan there um where I think Fri mouth can can do more with with more snaps um and you know fill the role as one player that you know three players were playing previous on on those other teams so that that's kind of how I'm looking at Fri mouth but again like you said there is absolutely concern there with with uh with his usage in the pass but I do tend to think that Fruth at least brings a skill set that Arthur Smith is looking for more so than than what he had with Kyle pittz um I guess but I do feel like jnu Smith sort of fits that kind of well-roundedness as well and he was the receiver more in Tennessee and Atlanta he was like the kind of in between playing both r as a blocker and a receiver um in his one year with the Patriots he was used more as a blocker Miami he should be kind of an everything guy so he's had someone that is capable of everything with two different teams now and just kind of and like he had Delaney Walker for just a little bit but Walker was used basically exclusively as a receiver not playing in that run blocking role even though that's kind of what he was traditionally early on in his career so I think the preseason could be pretty huge for this year to see what they do if they end up playing their starters um preseason with tight ends is probably my favorite time because this is right in the range of tight ends where we're talking about guys that we hope end up breaking out but then if we see they're not playing enough snaps and they're using kind of their normal tight end rotation then we at least know that early on in the preseason before most drafts happen yeah that's for sure um all right and then rounding out our top 15 is Dalton Schultz of the Houston Texans he's going as tight end 14 um in ADP so this leads into kind of our final grouping here it's it's a much larger one so we'll see kind of the biggest discrepancies as we start to kind of take swings at our guys here um tight end 16 uh is relatively Tier 4 close at least with tight with with ADP it's Cole Kat he's being drafted as tight end 16 um and then we get to tight end 17 Luke Musgrave who um is tight end 17 by 80P is that right um yeah yes he is he's Titan 17 by by ADP um and then let me see hold on one second I kind of lost my spot here where my players were um that I'm talking about uh uh yeah Luke Musgrave so let we'll talk about him I guess like because he's kind of our first um discrepancy here among the the this last later tier so um I have him like I said a little bit earlier than ADP so I have Miss tight end 15 you have Miss tight end 18 there's my chart um so let's start let let's start with you for this one um why do you hate Luke Musgrave of the green of your Green Bay Packers um first off I think go into some tight end philosophy of like at this point why are you drafting a tight end and it'll depend on the league but like we talked about the top eight guys that we're both in agreement on with Ingram Pitts and KD ending that group if I have one of those three guys I'm probably not drafting a backup tight end in most normal leagues because even like Pat fouth we were just talking about D Schultz I'm not sure if there's a matchup where I'm like I'm GNA bench Kyle pittz in favor of Dalton Schultz because of the matchups most of the time I'm just going to keep my star tight end in the lineup and you can even go down and like Jake Ferguson compared to some of these guys that are in this tier I'm probably still starting Ferguson even regardless of matchups so outside of the biwe a lot of the times I don't need a tight end so it depends what you're looking for in a tight end I think if you are looking for someone where they have a chance to be um really high I think Musgrave does stand out in this group because there's that chance but if you're in a league that for whatever reason starts two tight ends and I'd probably have musk grave a bit lower and my concern here is the playing time uh Tucker craft played Fair decently well so did Musgrave in their rookie years so I'm not sure how the snaps will be distributed this year U Musgrave was a clear tight end when he was healthy then when he was out craft became the clear tight end and they seemed to trust him more as those games progress so I think they trust uh Tucker more than they did at the start of last season so I could see these two rotating in and out a little bit more um they've also been fine having either a fallback or a tight end that's clearly a blocking tight end um part of that rotation too I could see that happening so it's not just going to be these two tight ends fighting for playing time there will be a blocker involved and they also probably are going to have a decent amount of three wide receiver sets because that's when Jaden Reed is on the field so I'm not sure Musgrave is going to see as much playing time as most of the tight ends that we're going to be talking about in this tier um there's a chance that he just um stays clearly ahead of Tucker craft and then he has the opportunity to have a really good season but still he's competing for targets with at least four wide receivers that most people are at least excited about one or two of them so chances are either all of them will do decently well or maybe one or two of them will end up emerging but there's a lot of good young talent in Green Bay they had those two drafts where all they did was draft either wide receivers or wide receivers in tight end so they have these six players that are all within one or two years apart and all of them could end up having okay seasons and musra is just one of those players compared to a lot of tight ends here where they're the clear number one tight end unquestioned player on their team yeah yeah it makes sense like the the target competition is is not going to be easy um for for musra I guess and and I guess he's one of the players for me like that I think can emerge this year as one of their top targets like I I know Tucker crafty he did play well last year but he also T tore his Peck this off season he had surgery um doesn't have like a set timetable on return at this point like they said maybe it's training training camp but also maybe not but either way like musra he is out there at least right now getting back to kind of developing that rapport with Jordan Love in This offense and you know to kind of compare grave and craft like mus grave yeah he was the higher drafted Prospect for the Packers last off season going in the second round compared to the third round for craft but he was also I think better than craft when he was on the field last season obviously dealt with injuries himself missed time but comparing the two like from just a per route basis in 2023 um Musgrave outperformed him in in yards per route run Target rate deep Target rate in average up the target for like kind of that higher fantasy value as well catchable completion rate on the year like even in the playoffs last year Musgrave was kind of being eased back in after the injury I think he only came back in like week 18 um he played less than than craft but he was way more effective right at earning targets per route run yards per route run and first down touchdown um rate per route run as well like it wasn't necessarily close so I think Musgrave you know he was through he was their tight end one through the first nine weeks of last season craft wasn't really a factor like you said when when Musgrave was in the lineup and I just think that you know nothing that craft did last year like I think it was good but I don't think it was so good that they maybe go back on that bias from from the year the year before like not enough at least that he doesn't cut into his I think top 15 potential for for tight end and that's that's kind of what I'm banking on for musk grave is just having a higher upside in this range like you said like depending on how you treat your draft to start at the tight end position you you may or may not want to try to take another swing at the position here but if I am taking the swing it Luke musra is definitely one of those guys for me so um I I just think again profiles is a better receiving option and some of those higher value fantasy targets that he brings with him as well because of that profile where he can get down the field he can work the middle of the field a little bit better just leads to more fantasy potential for when he is out there and and yeah maybe it craft cuts into the snaps a little bit but I still think that for me Musgrave is is the kind of clear tight end one in this offense and has a sh has a shot along with you know 10 other guys in in Green Bay to to be at least you know that second option maybe um for whoever comes out as the first whether it's a Jaden Reed or or Christian Watson whoever the one interesting thought I had there is um I was writing the Josh Jacobs I've been doing a bunch of player profiles and writing the Josh Jacobs one recently and realizing the Packers don't really have a third down back they have a bunch of guys who are very clearly early down backs and we've seen a couple of teams start to have either a fullback or a tight end play more in the back field on third downs we saw the Bengals do that a bit and then we saw the Vikings as well with CJ ham so I'm wondering if the Packers could potentially have both tight ends on the field at times having one lined up at tight end one in the back field uh giving both players more opportunities or maybe we see Jaden Reed in the backfield a little bit more and then two tight end sets to go along with that but I think there could be some creative things where they get both guys out on the field so maybe it won't always be craft taking Snaps away from Musgrave but just both of them on the field at the same time and with Musgrave at least so far being the better receiver being the one more likely to see targets but I also don't take a ton of stock in how well tight ends perform in the rookie year since we've seen plenty of excellent tight ends not really do much as rookies even like Don conade he put a bunch of stats together but he didn't really grade all that well as receiver but I'm not all that concerned about that like Sam leapor is the clear exception to the case and he's our overall tight end one so that's also partially why like yeah I have must grave ahead of craft right now and especially there's the health Factor like you mentioned but I wouldn't be entirely surprised that craft ends up being the better receiver of the two in the long run I have musk grave as a favorite but it's just an open-ended question to me rather than just a clear mus Graves the better receiver than craft okay yep makes sense um our next tight end is tight end 18 in our consensus ranks and it's henser Henry um you're you're much higher on Henry than consensus you have met tight end 17 he's going as tight end 21 so uh what do you like about Henry uh in New England this year to be bullish on him um a lot of it is simply he's been able to be a starting fantasy tight end before where a lot of the guys on this list um we had Cole KT as one of the guys ahead of him and like KT's done okay but now he has a ton of competition for targets and he's never been like a clear top tight end over a long period of time where Henry has been a top six fantasy tight end before he was tight end 14 last season a lot of that is just he's been able to stay healthy and he's receiv receiving tight end so um Henry I'm high on him particularly if you're just looking for a handcuff or someone that you can start during a bye especially if you're in deeper leagues where it does make more sense to get a backup tight end um they did lose both of his uh backups on the Patriots last year Mike Kaki and Pharaoh Brown both left they did bring in Austin Hooper but not too concerned about that I think if anything this leads to a little bit more playing time from Henry and for me a lot of it's also just his touchdown potential he's scored a decent number of touchdowns at times throughout his career and if the Patriots offense is able to have a little bit better quarterback play which we're generally expecting that could lead to more trips to the end zone more touchdowns could get him to the tight end 12 range but like if we're discussing Musgrave vers Henry a lot of it is what you're looking for I think mus grave has a much better shot of being a top six tight end this year for example than Henry but I think Henry has a better chance of being a top 12 tight end gotcha yeah I think that's a fine way to to look at it for me yeah I get I am like closer I guess or lower on uh on Henry than consensus or at least closer to ADP and I I guess I'm just like not overly sold on on him or maybe even the New England offense like I I do think like Kendrick Bourne de Mario Douglas Jaylen pulk Javon Baker like I'm not like overly high on those guys individually but I think as a whole there they're going to be probably a better receiving core than they'll get credit for and and and I think will'll be more consistent kind of Targets in the offense in New England and then yeah we we definitely expect Drake May to to be good um or at least better than than what they were last year um but not knowing for sure and then you also have a firsttime head coach uh and a defensive minded one at that right and Gerard Mayo so he does he projects as probably the safer option um again to luk worry kind of the just the spotty production profile that that he probably projects as as well right where you know he's gonna have weeks where he's a top 10 weekly performer because he scores a touchdown and then maybe some week a lot more weeks where he's like outside the top 30 or whatever it is um just because of the floor and and I think there are some other capable receiving options there in New England but um yeah I I I don't hate um Hunter Henry by by any means I just yeah not overly excited about him I guess so I guess that's kind of what we're we're seeing is I'm maybe leaning more into the the upside potential for the tight ends versus kind of the the the safer floors at least for this early part of the the back half of our our rankings fair and I can live with that the wide receivers a little bit better because then Henry will get to the Red Zone more often and hopefully score a little bit more so yeah he's probably like the least exciting tight end in this group but I think if you're looking for someone who's going to finish in like the 12 to 18 range and he should finish at least a top 30 tight end most weeks but yeah yeah um all right at tight end 19 for us um apparently we're we're back on our BS with with Cho cono because we both have him higher than his consensus uh tight end 24 480p so in for another year on chiy it seems and then at tight end 20 another difference between the two of us I have Tamm Hill as tight end 19 you have him as tight end 23 currently going as tight end 20 and ADP um finished as tight end 16 in PPR in each of the past two seasons so um I I guess I'll start with with Tamm Hill so he finished as a top 10 tight end um in 50% of his 16 games last year isn't necessarily being utilized as a passer as much since Derek Carr um had joined the team um but he did set a new career high in targets receptions receiving yards so those numbers you know alone weren't anything special with 3933 291 but you combine that with the fact that he had 78 carries for 401 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns knowing that is floor has been you know about 54 carries over the past four years I think there's more obviously more fantasy potential for Hill than just as a receiver which is what we've seen from him a lot of times when he's on the field so um he only scored two receiving touchdowns um while Jimmy Graham of all people who isn't on the team anymore scored four from the tight end position for the Saints last year I like Chris olve and Rasheed Shahed for this year but like even if you mix in a Jawan Johnson in there who I think you have higher on him um so that that'll kind of maybe be the discussion it's not a I don't think it's a bad room for Hill to kind of make his Mark again as a a third receiving option like tight end 19 to 20 kind of a good spot for him for me at least I I I know again like you like Johnson more but even getting targeted at a higher rate than Hill last year Jawan Johnson like Hill still outperformed him in PPR points per game yards per row run just like was a better and more effective player better arguably receiver as well on on top of what he adds as a runner and that they're you know willing to use him I think in goal to go situations as well was really encouraging for me he had 10 goal to go carries last year that was tied with Lamar Jackson and behind only Jaylen Herz and Josh Allen among like the non-running backs so I think there is something to be said about the team liking him in those scoring situations and and over Jawan Johnson as well who's you know he saw a higher Target rate in goal Togo situations over Johnson 50% to 25% as well um you know when they were close to scoring positions so if he's one of their go-to players for goal line packages like and they've kind of shown that tendency recently and and most importantly more so than Jawan Johnson that's why I kind of give the edge to to tesm Hill this uh this year again for me a big part of it is the change in offensive coordinator they had Pete carmichel as the offensive coordinator from 2009 to 2023 and I'm not sure if there's really that many other coaches or offensive coordinators that would be doing the stuff with Tamm Hill that the Saints have been doing all these years but now they have a new offensive coordinator glint kubak who hasn't been around the Saints so I would not be surprised if they're like we're not going to use a 34 year old player at running back anymore there's no 34 year old running backs in the league right now that's not a thing anymore so I don't see Hill getting those rushing opportunities anymore and I he did set career highs in receiving stuff this past year but I don't see him getting used all that much as a receiver like a lot of his decent games last year were when there were injuries either two running back or two tight end and they had a number of running backs out at time and then Joan Johnson missed time last season and that's a lot of the time when hell ended up getting used more so I'm just not sure if a new offensive coordinator is going to decide hey hell is going to be a big part of our offense when like there's not what Travis Kelce is around that age but outside of that there's not really any other tight ends that are receiving marcedus Lewis is much older but he's run blacking tight end at this time but there's just not players at his age doing that stuff and if the people that have been at the bat for hell for year after year after year are no longer with the team then I'm not sure hell has a role in the offense but it's like if we're talking risky and not risky and like Conor Henry was the safest option out of all these guys we're talking about Hill is the riskiest because like we've seen it before they could use him in the Run game and the pass game and you could get a running back at the tight end position like we've seen before and then he's a top 12 tight end and that's great but I think out of all these guys like everyone else has at least a very safe path to significant playing time Hill like I could see a scenario where he's not on the roster this year and then he's probably on the Broncos roster and then does even better than this his best case scenario is probably getting traded to Denver that's my take here oh I like that uh yeah that would make sense with Shawn pyton right so um yeah and that's kind of how I've been treating the this part of the ranks like within the top 20 is is you know weighing more of the the high upside for those guys right before the hunter Henry safe pick right and that that's where a lot of these guys kind of um sorted out for me and and Tamm Hill like you said definitely comes with with a lot more risk and does come with the upside as well if they do decide like yeah this is how we're going to use him he's got this athletic ability and he's he's still in great shape and can do all these things but if they don't then yeah absolutely he's he's a bust but tight end 19 like where he's being drafted it doesn't cost anything really to take that risk either so that's why I kind of wanted to put him in that in that kind of range there um at tight end 21 for us it is Tyler Conlin of the New York Jets he's going as tight end 23 um and then tight end 22 is for us is Joan Johnson who you know again as much as I I like Hill more than him we're both still higher on Johnson than consensus where he's tight in 20 28 um you have Miss tight in 21 I have Miss tight in 22 anything else you want to add on Johnson that that we may be having already oh yeah like I know he suffered the injury recently it sounds like he's going to be okay but I wouldn't be surprised if the injury drove down his ADP quite a bit um for me it's a similar thing of like you were mentioning the competition for targets for either one of them of the Saints not having as much at wide receiver this season so that kind of opens the door at tight end and like the Saints uh part of the thing as well with having Pete Carmichael as the offensive coordinator and sha Payton as the head coach for so long is they rotated their players in and out a ton and that was true at tight end and I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson is more of that clear number one tight end going forward so I could see him having more playing time this year assuming he does get healthy and then the touch John potential has always been there that's been the main reason to like Johnson for the last couple years is his ability to score touchdowns and then Jimmy gram was there last year wouldn't be entirely surprised if Jimmy Graham just shows up like start of September ready to go but still I see Johnson having the potential to score touchdowns and a bigger role in the offense so that's why if we're talking about the tight ends here like I'm still all these guys we're talking about I'm not drafting in most leagues but if I need a backup tight end or I'm sorry two tight ends or it's tight end premium then Johnson someone that I could be a little bit more excited about Fair yeah that that's pretty much what it is for me like just overall PPR potential I still think he holds some value there considering just kind of the lack of other legitimate receiving options on the team again like Ave and Shahed but you know for specific targets and things like that go I think there's at least a good chance he finishes as as the third option on the team there um all right a couple more names to go over here quickly to round out our top 24 uh consensus ranks at tight end 23 for us um at ADP as well um actually I don't know what his ADP was I I missed where I put that but um it is uh Kate Aon oh sorry tight end 18 is a ADP um you love tight end uh Kate dton he's going as tight end 18 you am as tight end 19 I am as tight end 23 maybe I'm a bit too low here um can you make a case for for K dotton and Tampa Bay this year yeah well we're both slightly at least slightly lower than him than consensus here so not sure me loving him is quite I just don't dislike him as much as you dislike him but for me he was tight end 20 last year so this is right around the same range that he was at he's still only 25 years old so there's still time for him to improve this is around the time where we start seeing tight ends of have a bit of improvement so I think there's still the opportunity for that for him to get better unlike Tyler Concklin someone that we uh both had in this range as well like we know what Tyler Conlin is at this point and what he's capable of doing yeah there's a chance he does better with Aaron Rogers at quarterback but he's not going to become this great tight end at this point in his career where Kon there is that chance that he improves and like they added a tight end in the seventh round but he doesn't really have any new competition for targets uh yeah they added rookie wide receiver but I don't think that's going to take away from the tight end targets for him as well so I think he just has the opportunity to improve from what he's been doing and he was tight end 20 so I do think he can get a little bit better than that but and he has a chance to do a lot better than that because he could break out as a player yeah for sure I I think you know there is definitely the potential for for a big leap in in um overall play and and production because I I yeah I guess for me like I just don't really believe in him too much as a player like I just don't really like the player that much like 3.9 targets per game last year wasn't overly exciting but maybe you know maybe the two playoff games are better indicators for what he could be um but again like it's just a super small sample side of size of two games um from last season but like again the rest of the year just kind of a guy 54.1 receiving grade that ranked 41st at the position 0.80 yards per route run that ranked 42nd he got like a lot of playing time but really just kind of underwhelmed considering the amount of snaps that he played second most routes for the position um and came away with seven PPR points per game which ranked 25th at the position so again maybe he'll be the you know the playoff version we saw for those two games maybe that's the indicator for the breakout but again it's a small sample size and um not enough to go off for me right now but uh you know at least an increase in production I think is is possible um and then last name on our list here and and least as well I guess um tight end 24 for us is Zack ZZ of the Washington commanders um hated by ADP at the moment as tight end 37 on sleeper I thought maybe I'm missed something where like he left the planet or or something like that or got injured again but um nope people just hate him um and they you're lower on him as well tight end 28 not as you don't hate him as much as the ADP does at at the very least but I have Miss tight end 18 only because I think there's still enough kind of left in the tank there to provide some spot starts for us in 2024 and again I don't think he's like completely washed yet like he's definitely getting older and it's it's a big part part of the concern but I don't mind Zack hers for one more year right like they they drafted Ben sonat who you know kind of has this this cult following of people who seem to think he's going to be the next big thing at the position and maybe he will but I just don't see it in year one in this offense so not nothing about his college profile screams that he's going to hit the ground running as a rookie 1.61 career yards per route run that was 59th percentile among tight end prospects since 2018 77.6 career receiving grade that was 64th percentile even his best career yards per run season was 2.02 um that was 63rd percentile so there were even talks about sonat being like a fullback at one point so I'm not like overly concerned about him in year one and then you factor in Z who has familiarity with Cliff Kingsbury that the new offensive coordinator for Washington has had some success in that offense at the end of 2021 and and into 2022 um he had 10.6 and 11.6 points per game in those two seasons 2 23 wasn't his best showing obviously he's getting older 7.4 points per game but he was still earning targets at a decent rate even if you know that started to tail off before his injury and and McBride emerging right he he still finished with a 22.6% Target rate that was a top five Mark among tight ends through the first seven games of the year last year seems to be healthy now um and and I think you know you look at the Washington receiving Court basically Terry McClaren is the only one true um sure thing in that receiving coure and hers maybe is the second best option even if he looks like the 30y 33 year old old man that he is um doing it like tight end 18 sure probably a bit high right but I don't know that there's like any truly attractive fantasy tight ends that I'm ranking after him either that I I'd rather have like the Joo conos Tyler Conlin's Hunter Henry's you know they're they're higher in our consensus ranks but honestly feel like they have just as low of floors as Earths maybe not nearly outside of maybe Henry that's probably the one that I could afford to swap there but just maybe not as much upside if we do get one more healthy season out of Earth and he earns targets the way he did prior to his injury I mean he was six targets per game last year 1.4 Red Zone targets per game like those were top 10 marks not looking for top five or top 10 again I have them as about four and a half targets per game with Red Zone um looks and then you know playing time Red Zone looks overall targets that's where the large majority of his fantasy value came from last year I I think he can still at least give us a percentage of that in 2024 on that offense which may very look look very similar to Kingsbury and Kyler Murray's Arizona with that mobile C quarterback and average options outside of the clear wide receiver one so I don't know am am I too optimistic about this old man uh first off being optimistic about old men you forgot Austin Eckler in their receiving players that Washington has clearly the one of the best receiving options for the Washington commanders so I think it does fit the philosophy that you've had so far with your rankings of like here are the guys that have a chance to be really good but there's also a decent chance that they won't be really good um I did write about hers in my sleeper tight ends for the season for a similar reason to a lot of what you were saying is like for a lot of these tight ends you don't really see a path to a potential Elite season but the path is there for hers because he has that experience in this offense and last time we've seen him in this offense he was among the top six fantasy tight ends he's just um a lot older and like any article that you read on him it sounds like a lot of it was like hey let's go teach other people on this team this offense from a player like all the headlines I'm seeing right now is using experience to help commanders on the offense he wants to mentor and guide the commander his young tight ends and is basically being a leader on the team which is great for the commanders but it also like all of that reads to me of like they're not going to use him in a fulltime role even if uh Ben tat plays more of that like hbac moves around a little bit more they also have other young tight ends on the roster that can play at times and did a lot whenever Logan Thomas um wasn't healthy so they have experienced young tight ends on the roster too that I could see this being a bit of a rotation at the position and anytime have a rotation at tight end then you don't want to start any of them because there's just not enough routes and targets to go around so part of me having him this low is like I don't even know if he's going to be the starter because he might not be it could be the second round rookie that gets the start and I think that's what a lot of people are thinking with the ADP is for them it's already a foregone conclusion that Z is going to be a backup SC rather than later but like what we saw in Arizona is he was great until Trey McBride took over and it made complete sense for McBride to take over with how while he was playing yeah that's the thing it's it's a risky swing right but like I I still think there's a little bit of gas left in the tank here for him to to be a fantasy starter just based on what he was able to show last year before the injury whether he's going to be the same player or not or like you said if if he's just there for basically being a a tight end Coach at this point in his career then you know again it's it's a swing to take but it's also like a a lowrisk swing for where he's being drafted right now especially at his ADP you you do not need to draft him as tight and 18 you could wait for a lot later than that so um yeah anyways um that is going to do it it was a a fun conversation here going over the tight end position which um doesn't always provide us with a lot of excitement but again I think the position has got a lot stronger over the last year or so and then that makes for a lot more interesting conversations around these players so thank you all for tuning in if you're watching on the YouTube please don't forget to like And subscribe as well we'd greatly appreciate that um Nate thank you to you as as well for sharing your ranks talking through them with us here um so we can sort out the position for 2024 um and before you go let us know some of the stuff that you got going on over at pff.com okay so last week this week and next week a lot of similar kind of Articles once these three weeks are done I will have a position rankings for all the positions I will have the perfect draft strategy for 12 team leagues for picks 1 through three 4 through six 7 through n 10 through 12 as well as a general strategy for both 12 and 10 team leagues I will have PPR rankings half PPR I think standard is the third one I'm doing for next week I am doing player profiles three a day every day from basically now until the start of the season so those started on Monday um then I wrote a good like 12 of them yesterday so I don't remember which ones are going out what days but that's for the editors to worry about at this point uh last week also did some studies that I was spent a bit of time with in May and June looking at player utilization so if you're into that kind of stuff and like some of the philosophy of me doing the recap articles I do and I talk about players either losing or gaining playing time in different situations and that research does a lot to say what that actually means when that happens to a player nice yeah good stuff there definitely check out Nate's work obviously on pff.com as for me um I'm covering all the breakout candidates or my breakout candidates this week UM quarterback and running back are up on the site as of Wednesday um wide receiver and tight end will be up to to close out the week as well um tight end will include some names that we didn't go into detail about today so be sure to check that out as well um I'll be back on Friday in the feed for the IDP crowd talking IDP breakout candidates with my guy Jay Abby uh and then Nate and I will um maybe be back next week with something we we don't know exactly how that will work yet but we'll figure out something so until then uh peace out [Music]