2024 Election Map Based on the Latest Poll in ALL 50 STATES! September 12, 2024 (POST-DEBATE)

hello everyone and welcome back to the channel today we're diving into the 2024 presidential race and things are getting intense we're using 538 latest polling data to take a look at where the race stands both nationally and in those all important Battleground States stick with me as we break down the momentum shifts state-by-state analysis and ultimately what the electoral map would look like if the election were held today before we get started do me a quick favor hit that like button if you find this content useful and if you want to stay updated on the latest election news and insights don't forget to subscribe to the channel for more all right let's dive in first off let's start with the national polls right now according to 538 Harris is sitting at 47% and Trump is at 44.4% while this may seem like a comfortable lead for Harris we've seen the Gap fluctuate over time with both candidates experiencing surges and slowdowns what's particularly interesting is that the gap between them has been narrowing which suggests that this race is far from Over Now what's key in this election as always are the Battleground States the ones that could truly swing the outcome so let's get into those first up Arizona right now Trump is ahead by plus 0.8% gives him a slight Edge in this important state we've seen the polls here bounce back and forth but Trump has recently regained moment momentum according to real clear politic the latest polls show Trump leading by plus one and plus two in various surveys but don't get too comfortable because Arizona is still considered a tossup and things could change rapidly next let's move to Georgia this is another critical State and it's incredibly tight Trump holds a slim lead here at plus. 6% with 46.5% to Harris's 45.9% just like in Arizona Georgia has been a back and forth cont contest with both candidates leading at different points according to the latest polls we've seen Trump pull ahead with plus two plus three and even plus4 in some Harris is holding her ground with plus one in other polls Georgia is a tossup but Trump currently has a slight Advantage let's shift gears to Michigan where Harris is leading by plus 1.6% Michigan is critical for her path to the White House with her currently sitting at 46.6% compared to Trump's 45% however her lead has been shrinking as we've seen over the last few weeks the Gap was wider earlier in the race but Trump has been steadily closing in the honeymoon period for Harris seems to be fading however the recent debate might change things up most analysts agree that Harris performed better so we could see her numbers rebound here soon let's not forget about Nevada Harris has a razor thin lead of plus 0.1 C seriously it's neck and neck with Harris at 45.6% and Trump at 45.5% Nevada has been a state where we've seen multiple crossovers with each candidate briefly taking the lead at different points the latest polls are a mixed bag with some showing Trump at plus one and others showing a tie but Harris is still slightly ahead when you look at the weighted average now let's head to North Carolina another crucial State and Harris is just barely ahead here with plus 0.2% this is another tight race with Harris at 46.2% and Trump at 46% North Carolina has seen both candidates Take the Lead at different points and it's another Battleground state that will play a major role in deciding the final outcome recent polling shows Harris leading by plus one to plus three in various polls but Trump isn't far behind showing plus one and plus three in other surveys and now let's talk about Pennsylvania the ball game State as we like to call it this state is absolutely vital for both campaigns Harris is currently leading by pl. 7% with 4 6.3% to Trump's 45.6% polls here have shown Harris maintaining a slight lead though that margin is shrinking recent polls show Harris at plus three Trump pulling in plus two in other surveys Pennsylvania is key whoever wins here will likely have the momentum to carry other Battleground states with them so let's break this down in terms of the electoral map boing to 538 the election were held today Harris would win 2 and 92 electoral votes comfortably surpassing the 270 needed to win Trump on the other hand would have 246 electoral votes the key States here are Nevada Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania and North Carolina Harris is leading in all of them Trump is holding his own in Arizona and Georgia but those States alone wouldn't be enough to secure him the win he needs to flip some of the other Battlegrounds to have a path to Victory but here's the thing Oles aren't everything as we know debates and late stage campaigning can still swing momentum historically debates don't have a massive impact on polling we could see a slight bump for Harris in the coming days keep in mind we're still waiting on the latest post debate numbers to come in which could change everything now here's an interesting fact despite National polls showing a close race National polling averages don't decide elections the Electoral College does the Battleground state are where the real action is and that's why we're focusing so much on them today wrapping up if Trump can hold on to Arizona and Georgia while flipping North Carolina Pennsylvania and possibly Nevada he could still hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes however as things stand right now Harris has the advantage with more paths to Victory to doesn't necessarily need to win Pennsylvania if she can take States like North Carolina and Nevada this is shaping up to be a nailbiter and the final weeks of the campaign will be crucial Will Harris maintain her lead in the Battlegrounds will Trump's momentum in Arizona and Georgia carry him to Victory we'll have to wait and see how the numbers shake out after the next round of polls I want to know what you all think leave your comments down below who do you think is going to win this race if you enjoyed this analysis make sure to like this video subscribe and hit the notific Bell for more updates on the race thanks for watching and I'll see you in the next one