POST-DEBATE 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Prediction | Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump

hello everybody and welcome back to another video in today's video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 presidential election I'll be giving you all my first presidential election prediction following the debate uh I waited a couple days to release this because it's always good to see how the polls start to move it usually takes maybe 72 hours maybe a bit more than that and the debate was on Tuesday it is Saturday morning so to start out the weekend we'll be talking about this electoral map so um I'm I'm going to begin by filling out the safe d ratic States as we always do and these are going to remain mostly unchanged I believe KLA Harris um in terms of the safe States I don't think that much has changed over the course of the past few weeks since I last did this so she's going to get 191 electoral votes that are going to be in the safe column for her Donald Trump it's going to be similar we're going to see that he's going to get um a a bit less uh or fewer electoral votes but not by too much he's going to be at 113 and so now these St to some degree are going to be close not necessarily competitive but some of these states could be you know I think all these states have a real chance of being within 10% no matter uh what you believe is going to happen at the end of the day so uh to start by filling out the safe or the likely Democratic states excuse me we're going to go to New Mexico uh Nebraska second district Minnesota New Hampshire Maine at large Virginia and that I believe should do it that's going to be 226 like total votes for KLA Harris and I I I don't think any these states are too debatable the polls have moved towards Harris in some of these states right like we take a look State of New Hampshire latest poll from St anel had her up by eight she was up by seven last month Minnesota you know we've had a couple close polls with Broadley Harris's lead is pretty firm it's a six-point lead so I think none I don't really think any of these states are too competitive and Harris should win them all by more than five points now for Donald Trump I would going to give him Alaska Iowa Ohio uh South Carolina all in the safe or in the likely column as well as main second district so um Alaska is an interesting one because we did get a poll yesterday that had Trump only up by five this is a good poll so this is a local poll and they actually in 2022 were very accurate so it is a concern for Trump that he's only up by five here he's he was also only matching his 2020 margin in a signal double GOP sponsored poll so you know there have been some warning sides for Trump here but I don't think he'll win it by any less than five this is kind of a worst case scenario and I bet in this poll you'll see some undecided voters kind of come home to Trump and he'll probably win by 8 or n at the end of the day here I think Ian Ohio and South Carolina are pretty self-explanatory as is Main's second district we did get a poll last month that actually showed Harris winning the district but in 2020 right like you have to remember main polling has been very unreliable in 2020 the polls were very very wrong they overestimated Democrats by significant amount and we actually saw uh in the second district Biden was up by three points on Election Day he lost it by by six so I I wouldn't be a huge believer in the polls here and in the one poll that had Harris ahead you know they they had her up by 17 Statewide and I don't think that's going to hold up either I think she'll probably do maybe you know eight nine points worse across the board and that would even if you adjust the poll it' be kind of a three or four point loss for Harris in the district I think she loses it by six maybe seven so to me this is a map that is pretty clearly R dist is pretty clearly leaning uh towards Donald Trump um now you will notice that there has been a new state or there is a new St in the you know truly competitive column which is states that can be under 5% and I don't think this state is is really a state that could go either way but it it it could be closer than we initially thought and that state is of course Florida now Florida I I've been pretty clear in my belief that this is going to be a Donald Trump State and I haven't changed Donald Trump will win Florida and it won't be uh particularly close so Win It by more than 2020 in all likelihood but just to kind of represent what's going on at this point in time we've seen movement towards uh kamla Harris here right and in the recent polling we've gotten she's been doing better morning conso which is a decent they're a C+ time type of poller kind of six out of 10 they only have Trump up by two Emerson he's only up he's up by less than four and then if we take a look at some of the other polls right like we've seen NG GOP polls Trump only being up by seven which you know a few months ago I think Trump plus seven would have been maybe a a a more conservative prediction on Florida now I think we could be in a spot where Trump wins it by less I will likely move the state back to likely Republican on Election Day no pun intended um but right now the polls show a somewhat close race and there has been talk with from Democrats but kind of starting to reinvest in Florida I personally think that would be a bad strategy because they aren't really close to winning the state but it could maybe narrow the margin a little bit so to me Florida right now put it in the lean but we'll see how that holds up till election day um and no I don't think this state is truly you know in a position where it can you know really be be close to voting for comma Harris come November so now we're going to go to another lean Republican state and that is Texas Texas is similar to Florida I I believe this state is going to narrow up but it won't really be competitive and KLA Harris doesn't really have a real chance here uh she's down by more in Texas and Florida even though I do think she'll actually lose Texas by less but right now morning consult had Trump up by eight Emerson only had him up by three which is a real big concern for him because in 2022 like this is a nonpartisan B+ rated pollster in 2022 they actually underestimated Democrat and they only had Trump up by three here that's a concern for him the good news though is that some of the other polls have Trump up by five or the good news for Trump rather excuse me the good news for Trump is that he's up by five in these other polls he's up by nine in active vote which isn't a great poster but it's worth something and then in a poll that I like which is the uh hobby school he's up by five as well so the results kind of point to a a a mid single digit victory for Trump here and again just to kind of pull out the 2020 map he won the state by 5.6% in 2020 I think it'll get a bit of Point closer just because of Trends in Dallas and Austin which will help Democrats turnout could be a problem for them but broadly the suburbs are big enough for even if the state you know if Democrats don't have a good year in terms of turnout the suburbs can just push the state a bit to the left so Donald Trump should win there now to go over to a lean Blue State I believe KLA Harris would likely win Michigan um by two three maybe three and a half points if we take a look at the polling data it's been pretty consistent Harris is up by two it actually has narrowed up a little bit uh if if you know right today September 14th if we go back to say August uh 14th you know she was up by 3 three and a half so it has her lead has narrowed but again we we've had an influx of Republican aligned polls like Insider Advantage um you know coefficients another GOP poll Patriot polling signal traler so more you know half of the polls we've gotten recently have been GOP aligned polls and a bunch of them still show Harris ahead right um so that's you know I I'd take that with a grain of salt the good news for her is that in Redfield which does it pulls a lot Harris is up by three their most recent poll and she was she was up by three in their poll before that but I think she was actually losing before that let's see Redfield if we go back to their polls from earlier yeah she was losing by one she's now up by three so there's been some movement towards Harris in Michigan I think just broadly like geographically Democrats have an advantage here just because the Republicans to win the state they have to do get a lot of things to go right for them in 2016 when Trump won Michigan he was winning Kent County which voted for Biden by 6 in 2020 uh he was you know not he was losing by single digits in Oakland County and in these two Suburban counties which cast well over you know Kent County Biden got 190,000 votes there Oakland got 434,000 votes there right these are Big counties that have a real sway on the Statewide vote uh Democrats do better there every year Republicans haven't been able to stem the bleeding and Donald Trump might do well with the workingclass voters in the state maybe he'll do a bit better in mome County it won't be enough to counter everything else I think just mathematically the numbers aren't there in Michigan for Trump even though maybe on a good night he could win it it's more likely than not that he doesn't um and so that brings me to my next state which I believe is North Carolina we're not entering kind of toss-up territory where I I believe North Carolina is the least close of the toss-ups right now I'm going to give it to Trump by about 2% and this might come as a surprise because North Carolina we've been getting a lot of really bad polling for Donald Trump but broadly right like I wouldn't be too concerned but if I were Republican Harris has surged here right like she was down by a point a few weeks ago she's now leading but the problem for Harris is that she hasn't really cracked 50 in many polls she got to 50% in one Quint ofak poll but again if you look at the 2020 polls right just to show you Biden was up by two points here on Election Day and he lost the state by 1.3 and so the same polls that had Biden winning by five six points in North Carolina they show Harris up by three right like Quinn a Pak Morning conso Has it even and they were pretty uh you know bullish on Democrats here last time survey USA is a legitimately good pollster so I think this is a concern for Trump um but again FAU has him up uh he's up an Insider Advantage which is a GOP Aline pole but you know I think they've actually been okay in North Carolina so right now the polling does favor Harris like I I I will genuinely concede that um but I think it like Democrats haven't won here in 16 years geographically the problem for them is that they don't uh do well enough in in the state suburbs right like uh cabis County North uh of Charlotte you you look at the areas kind of out or even in Wake County where Democrats have been getting favorable Trends recently if they can get to 65 there maybe they can win Statewide or if they can you know stop losing by 10 11,000 votes in cabar that'll help them but the problem for them is that every year they come very close to win North Carolina and they always talk about it but they can't actually do it uh Hillary Clinton lost the state by three Barack Obama lost lost it by 2 and A2 I believe when he ran for elction 2012 Biden lost by 1.3 and again Biden LED in most pre-election polling here he was favored to win the state according to a lot of people so uh Democrats definitely have a path here but again the problem for them is they haven't uh is that they're like 90% of the way they in the suburbs and the rural areas are are likely to continue to Trend towards Republicans because we've seen especially in the South uh even areas where you have majority of black counties which are losing population Democrats have major problems there it's too many things are going on for Democrats to just see it even even a a two-point shift here uh it's in play for KLA Harris it's definitely a competitive state but again I'm I'm not going to believe on all those Trends kind of coming in to favor Democrats uh just this year right like why would it happen this year when it hasn't happened in 16 years haven't had hasn't happened since 2008 and Democrats have had real chances in 2020 they were supposed to win that Senate race they lost it in 2014 Kagen was a popular incumbent she lost and obviously in 2020 in the presidential race Joe Biden was favored in most the polls so this is a state where Democrats have been burnt before not going to bet on them until I get really really good evidence to bet on them um so now we're going to go to neighboring Georgia where I believe you can make a similar case for uh Republicans not winning it but the polling is pretty bad for Harris and Georgia right now and you know for the same reason that I'm narrowing Florida up I'm I'm going to keep Georgia in the Trump column because right now you know the polls are close but if if we take a look where we are Trump still leads and again he's actually been doing better recently than he was two weeks ago in Redfield and Wilton he's up by two he's up by three in quinap Pak which by the way showed Harris up in North Carolina so that's a problem for him or for Harris in Georgia Trump's down by one in morning console in Georgia which is a concern for him but he's up in all the other polls like FAU you also have to consider that the nytc poll which is one of my favorite pollsters if we go back to what they had they actually had Donald Trump Up by Four Points here and their their likely voter undecided push so uh you know really this is a very very close State and I would not be surprised at all if K Harris comes back and wins it in 2022 hersel Walker was up on the election day polls and he lost both the election day the a plurality of the election day vote then the majority of the runoff vote so again you know this this is a Georgia has been good for Democrats in the past few Cycles I could totally see myself moving it back to the Harris column before election day for now though it's it's a state where I I I I do believe Donald Trump has the narrowest of advantages um now we're going to go to Arizona this is a state where I'm really bucking the polls and picking it for KLA Harris the polls have been very bad for her in the past two weeks they were good for her like two weeks before right like she was up by you know a point and a half for a good chunk of time and now she's down by one and so the reason that the poll has been bad for her is mostly because we have been seeing like GOP align pollsters kind of coming in and releasing polls right like Patriot poll Insider Advantage um let's see I think we got a TR we got a spry strategies here too Democratic polls haven't really like come in and balance that out yet but let's look at the nonpartisan polls tip insights is a good poll they have at a tied race morning cons has Trump up by two which is a concern for Harris Trump's up by one in Redfield and then obviously CNN this poll was very bad for Harris Trump was up by five Emerson Trump was up by four so recent polling has really had shown movement towards Trump but the good news is that the you know the really top tier pollsters like Fox have Harris up by one she was up by five in New York Times Sienna which you know I'm not going to quote New York Times Sienna to say Trump's going to win Georgia right now and then not do the same thing for Arizona for Harris um and again right like the polling data in Arizona has been decent in recent years but it's it's not you know completely infallable and in 2022 it underestimated Mark Kelly and Katy Hobs who ran for governor and Senate ran for Senate and Governor excuse me by three points each right so this is clearly a state where Democrats have beat their polls or they've been able to beat their go and they did it in 2018 and 2016 as well so to me I'm okay Betty on it if Trump's up by two on Election Day I might move it back to him but um my my priorties are too strong here we have to remember and you you're if you know the channel you know what I'm about to say Maricopa County this is where 61% of all votes in Arizona are cast and this County trended Five Points towards Joe Biden 2020 if it even moves another two points towards towards KLA Harris again this kind of moved uh you know the Democrats in the senate race did Four Points better than Biden here even if it moves half of that in 2024 uh you know and again there is an abortion referendum on the ballot that's going to be very important issue in the state come November right this is the state where Democrats are going to benefit from that because this is broadly a pro-choice State um all that really makes me think that Trump's going to lose ground in Maricopa not gain ground and this again the majority of the votes come from this County if Trump loses more ground there he has to make up a lot of ground everywhere else and he in 2020 he lost ground in Puma just as much as he did in cocono just as much as he did in Copa so to me this state there's a lot of things that need to go right for Trump to win it he can come close but I I'd still bet on Harris to win it as of today even though I know that might be a hot take right now but we'll see we'll see where we are in election day maybe people are going to come back and um start to agree with me now neighboring Nevada is kind of the opposite of Arizona where the geography and the I think the math favors Republicans but the polls favor the Democrats and so uh right now in the polls not in Nebraska excuse me in Nevada Harris is up by 0.2 and that's a pretty good yeah I'd say that's a fine result for her given the fact that in 2016 Trump was winning the state in the polls and he uh ended up losing it and then in 20122 or in 2018 the polls had Republicans winning the Senate and governorship they lost both those races in 2022 the polls had Katherine Cortez maer losing to Adam La up by I think three or four on Election Day and she ended up winning by just under a point so I think Harris is going to is polling wise in good shape here her problem is that you know I'm a big numbers guy you make the argument for her for her doing well in Copa County Clark County this is an even bigger share of the electorate 3/4 of the votes in Nevada come from Clark County and it moved a point and a half to the right in 2020 and again usually suburbs have been able to kind of save the Democrats in these big Urban counties it saved them naropa saved them to an extent in Dallas and Austin save them even in Jacksonville Florida where they had otherwise a very bad year in Florida in Las Vegas it did not the subers did not come home for Joe Biden 2020 the way he would have hoped this state was closer than a lot of people thought Democrats have gotten very lucky here in recent years they've won a bunch of very close races uh and it's definitely you know to me something that shouldn't be sustainable I wouldn't be shocked if Harris wins it again just because Republicans again haven't really won here in the past like they haven't won uh a federal race in Nevada since 2012 and they haven't before that they hadn't won uh presidential race since 2004 so I could definitely see the case for Nevada staying blue I I don't hate it but right now the fact that Clark County is trending right the fact that we could see another drop in Democratic turnout which really will hurt the party to me that could be uh very very very very problematic for um for kamla Harris so it's going to come down to the Rust Belt and obviously right now if I award Pennsylvania it's going to decide the election so we're going to hold off on Pennsylvania we're going to talk about Wisconsin where I believe KLA Harris for the first time might be favored here now this is obviously you know Wisconsin state where I've been pretty bullish on Trump but I don't want to ignore the polling data and the polling data is pretty clear Harris is expanding her lead and in the aftermath of debate we've we've seen two very good polls for her Redfield wilon she's up by 3 she's up by 3 in morning console she's tied in GOP poll she's up by two in CBS and best of all for Harris in one of the best polls this is a local Wisconsin pollster it's the Marquette University law school they've been very good in recent years she's up by 4 point she's at 52% of the vote I don't think she'll win by four I think she'll win by if anything like point4 but again this the best pollsters right now now they all show Harris winning again Donald Trump the last time he let a poll that wasn't a GOP poll was Emerson and that was on August 28th uh before that we had Trafalger show him up by one but again Trafalger had Republicans winning the senate race by I think five or six points in 2022 they had Trump um actually they're actually fine here in 2020 to be fair they're very bad in 2022 so again it's a very close State I think geographically Trump might have an advantage here just in terms of the fact that uh KLA Harris is going to need to hold on to some ground in the rural areas that kind of stayed stagnant in 2020 right cuz in these rural counties like go to go to rural Texas and just look at the Panhandle counties right let's just go here I click on any random one Trump gets like 90% of the vote conservatively you go to Wisconsin you go to these rural counties that are you know just as rural uh often even more white right which is the Democrat that favors Republicans these counties Democrats still get 35 to 40% of the vote in so Harris is going to have to hold on to those and that could be a problem for because we have slippage for Democrats here in recent years they've also been slipping in the driftless working class areas but the good news for Harris is that in Dayne County which is where roughly 11 or 12% of the votes could be cast as a state as shair of the Statewide total this year it's zooming left Biden did five and a half points better than Hillary Clinton here Tony Evers Mandela Barnes who in 2022 did very well here as well and again big college town it'll be back in session which will benefit Democrats very pro-choice area very socially Progressive area KLA Harris if she can turn out young voters this could you know single keep Wisconsin blue so Madison look out for that on Election night I think Democrats are optimistic about their chances here because of Madison and again the polls do reflect a democratic Victory here even though I think it could be smaller than people think so Pennsylvania is the state it comes down to as always and right now it's not election day as I always say but right now if the election were held on September 14th I see a narrow narrow haris Advantage here now I say that for mostly two reasons as we always do we're going to start with the polls here and right now Harris is up by about a point and again in the good nonpartisan poll she does have an advantage she's tied in Redfield but she's up by three in morning consult she's tied in Yuga CVS which is a pretty good poll so just shows how close the race is she's uh you know tied in Wick which is a GOP poll but again the um the more nonpartisan polls like Emerson they have it tied and then she's up by five in morning consult she was up by two in yugov uh and then obviously in the in the New York Times Sienna poll from August which is a little bit outdated but you know one of the best pollsters they had Harris up by four Quinn Pak had her up by three so she's definitely pulling fine nonpartisan posters the reason that this average is so skewed towards Republican she'd be up by two or three right now if it weren't for these GOP polls like coefficient Patriot polling for falger and Wick which all had Dr R winning the senate race and had Trump winning the state in 2020 right if they hadn't come in we'd be talking about a different result uh right now for KLA Harris but obviously um that is not uh I I you know where we are so regardless just to kind of recap here right like the first reason is is essentially the polls the nonpartisan ones do still show her ahead by a good amount and obviously in 2020 Biden be underperformed his polls by three points and if if Harris did that she'd probably lose the state even if you would just for nonpartisan polling but again in 2022 Democrats beat their polls and uh Democrats broadly in Pennsylvania have good Trends so let's talk about that now now uh Terris I think is going to struggle in the rural areas Trump's going to get to good turnout here these voters were energized and in 2022 uh in in terms of margin uh the Republicans really struggled in the rural counties but in terms of turnout they were fine broadly so Trump should be able to get this turnout that he needs now the problem for them is that in the Metro areas like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia Republicans don't have any you know uh really ground to gain in Pittsburgh alagan County Biden did Four Points better than Hillary Clinton and the 2022 Senate rates Democrats got 60% of the vote here Biden got 59.4 I think haris will crack 60 there that and it's a left Runing County that'll be a huge problem for Trump cuz again you see uh well let's let's just do some brief math here right like we see well over or no yeah well over 700,000 votes being cast so obviously that's a huge County that plays a big role in the siding a state that's decid about like 880,000 votes every year uh and then we go to uh the Philadelphia CER Delaware Chester and montgomry these cies all move to the left in 2020 especially Chester moved eight points to the left I think Harris especially with the Rising she aliens of abortion issues right like we talk about her I think her debate performance which I talked about last video I haven't really addressed it today but it broadly did help her the majority of Voters do think she won the debate and that performance like if you watched it it was pretty clearly catered to moderate voters in the suburbs who maybe don't like necessarily the past Progressive stances Harris has taken but don't like Trump they don't like uh what they perceive to be extremism and Harris really hammered him on being extreme uh she talked about turning the page she talked about um kind of creating a new generation of leadership because I think people are really sick of I I think both Trump and Biden we see that in their approval ratings but the good news for Harris is that she isn't Trump or Biden she's haris so um that'll be interesting to you know that'll be interesting to watch but again as as it pertains to these suburbs these are Big parts of the state they mooved towards Democrats in 2020 and better yet for them in 2022 Dr Ross I think ran a better campaign for the suburbs than John fedman did and he underperformed Trump in two of those three counties and the one he outperformed Chester did he did I think like point 3% better so Philadelphia are prob had one here ferally since 2016 their state party I think is a lot less organized as state democratic party in a state where it's that close every little thing matters and right now Democrats I think just have the have uh a bit more to be excited about here than Republicans do but again that could change and this whole map could change by the time we get to November so let me know what you all want to see let me know um what or which states you disagree with of course in this prediction maybe this's a state you want to talk about in the comment section I'm happy to you know engage with productive comments like the channel subscribe to the video or wow I I mixed that up as you can tell I'm tired like the video subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so already you can become a member if you like but only if you want to um it really does help me out though so if you're interested do check it out um and yeah I will hopefully see you all in the next one