2024 Election Map Post-Debate Forecast: WHO WON?

Donald Trump and kamla Harris just finished their first presidential debate and polls and betting markets are already in a frenzy from 538 to ddq to even RCP Trump was making a comeback and on poly Market he had continued to grow his lead to it peing at 53% but now it's tied 49% to 49% in this video we're going to be showing our updated prediction for the 2024 election diving into the real effects this debate will have come November there's a ton of new data so let's get started as you can I already filled out the states with the least competition for both candidates these are the safe states which would take nothing short of a miracle to flip and give Harris the initial lead but in an election this close it could go to either candidate especially in the aftermath of the debate more on that later on to the more competitive states that will ultimately decide the election starting off in the west is our first state Oregon Oregon is widely considered to be a relatively safe state for Democrats given its history in 2016 Clinton won it by a likely margin of plus 11 and then in 2020 Biden grew that margin to a safe plus 16.1 but the reason I didn't include it in the safe category is because of how close the polls have gotten both with Biden before he dropped out and now with Harris as the candidate the most recent head-to-head poll in Oregon shows Harris only leading Trump plus five with 49% to 44% this would usually be just a lean margin but honestly I'd be shocked if it got that close even after everything that happened with the debate especially since Harris has has a 97% chance of winning it on poly market so we are going to make it a likely Democrat State remember that the margins for our map are 1 to 3% tilt 3 to 7% lean 7 to 12% likely and then anything greater than 12 points or more is considered safe next up is our first major Battleground State Nevada since the start of Trump's political career in 2016 Nevada has been highly contested politically even though it voted for Democrats in both that election and in the last election but it was by the same margin of plus 2.4 this means that it actually saw a shift to the right since the margin didn't change while the rest of the country in 2020 shifted left this cycle however it looks like it's closer than ever 538s most recent average shows Nevada favoring Harris by a margin of plus 0.2 but the three most recent polls show one tie and two Trump victories with plus one but that's not accounting for any historical errors when we look at Poly Market Trump is currently favored to win with 50% to 49% according to bets totaling over 3 Mill milon I think as time goes on and we can see the full repercussions of the debate this margin will increase but for now we can make Nevada a tilt Republican state in Arizona which is our second major Battleground state it looks just as close unlike Nevada though Arizona ended up having one of the closest margins of the entire 2020 election where it only went to Biden with plus 0.31 but that was only the second time it has voted Democrat in over 60 years looking at 538 most recent average Trump currently leads by a margin of plus 0.8 with 46.2% to 45.5% the eight most recent polls are also very close with five showing ties and the other three showing a trump win with the latest of those being a plus one Republican Victory Trump also has a pretty good chance at winning Arizona on poly market with the latest odds being 61% to 42% this is one of the many states that I predict we'll see a massive surge for Trump because of this debate so we'll make it a lean Republican state next up is New Mexico which is not as competitive as some of these other states as of today New Mexico has over a 91% chance of going to Harris and it is also voted for democrats for every election since Obama's first run in 2008 and the Democratic lead has only gotten bigger and bigger as time went on with Trump losing New Mexico by a margin of 10.8 in 2020 there isn't a polling average as of right now but the most recent poll between Trump and Harris shows Harris only winning by a margin of plus five honestly I'm not sure which way New Mexico will end up going because of the debate but since it has been pretty loyal to Democrats in the past it would still be hard for Trump to get it any closer than lean in my opinion but for now we can make it a likely Democrat State moving into the south is one of the biggest and most important States politically the lonar state of Texas Texas has seen a notable shift to the left in recent times that made many Republicans worried and many Democrats hopeful we can see this happening starting in 2012 where Romney w Tech by a margin of plus 15.8 to 2020 where Trump only won it by a margin of plus 5.6 538 current polling average shows Trump drastically growing to plus 6.1 with the latest poll showing a margin of plus eight and on poly Market he is favor to win with 86% to 14% there is a very good chance that his average continues to rise in Wake of the debate even potentially enough to consider Texas a solid red state but for now we can make it just likely Republican next up is the Sunshine State of Florida over in the Southeast Florida and Texas are very similar politically this cycle even though their histories and overall historical voting trends are much different I mean just looking at the 2000 election you can see this with Florida being decided by plus 0.009 which is one of the closest margins in American history Trump however has an 83% chance of winning according to poly Market even though the most recent average is much closer than I personally am expecting with the former president only winning by a margin of plus 4.2 the most recent poll isn't as close as that though with Trump ahead plus 6 but with everything that happened with the debate and also taking into account the almost Sixpoint polling error in favor of trump from 2020 I'm expecting polls to Skyrocket for Republicans to levels we saw before Biden dropped out so I'm going to make Florida another likely Republican state moving on to Georgia in the last election Biden ended up winning Georgia by a margin of just plus 0.2 4 which was the closest of the entire election and one of the closest margins in US history prior to that however Georgia was a likely Republican state and looking at the most recent numbers even before the debate it looks like it's trending further right than most anticipated currently Georgia has a polling average that puts Trump ahead by just plus 0.6 which is huge since Harris has held a slight lead for the past few weeks the eight most recent polls look even better for Trump with him pulling ahead in six with one being a tie and the other being a very slim Harris victory of plus one and according to poly Market Trump's odds of winning Georgia are up to an impressive 59% where I expect to see it continue to rise because of the debate with Georgia seemingly returning to its roots I think it's relatively safe to make it a lean Republican state North Carolina is up next and even though it voted for Trump in both of his past elections despite being a Battleground State people as well as the media as a whole seem to think it will be a highly contested swing state yet again looking at its pulling average as of today Harris barely seems to have taken the lead from Trump where it now sits at plus 0.2 and this is mainly due to the last few polls leaning to the left by margins of plus three and plus one this is highly unlikely in my opinion not only because Trump seems to be more popular than ever because of the huge shift to the right these last four years but also because he has a 57% chance of winning based on the most recent data on poly Market if these other Battleground States like Nevada are tilting and leaning in his favor I think North Carolina is almost guaranteed even if it does end up being close this is one of the many states that I expect to see a huge boost for Trump in following the debate so I'm going to make it lean in his favor and finally finishing off the South as an unexpected politically closed State Virginia over the past several Cycles Virginia has trended more and more blue with the last election being a Democrat double digit margin of plus 10.1 looking at polls this cycle they've been pretty split but the most recent one shows a Democrat win with plus eight it's important to mention that this Plus 8 is one of the largest margins out of the most recent polls and I think it could be underestimating trump it would take a lot to flip Virginia and I'm not sure it will in November but maybe with everything that happened in the debate there could be a trump surge you never know but on poly Market Harris is still favored to win with an 89% chance so I'm not so sure if Republicans can pull off a red Virginia this election so we are going to make it a lean Harris State moving up into the Northeast there are only a few States totaling 21 electoral votes these states are main at large as well as its second district New Hampshire and New Jersey like most of the states in this region most of these have a history of voting blue and it looks like most of them will continue this trend looking at Poly Market Maine Statewide contest is favored to go to Harris with 87% New Hampshire is also favored to go to Harris with 85% and New Jersey has a 96% chance to go to Harris but Maine's second district has a 78% chance of going to Trump all of these line up with how they voted in the last election with the lowest margin being New Hampshire's likely Biden margin of plus 7.4 polls however have been kind of all over the place in Maine the most recent poll shows Harris winning by a margin of plus 17 but overall they've been much closer than that with the last two showing Plus 8 and plus 9 so because of this we'll make it a likely Harris state in New Hampshire the current polling average gives Harris the lead by a margin of plus 6.5 with most being similar outside of Main's second district I'd say New Hampshire has the best chance of going to Trump but even post debate it' still take a lot so I'm going to make it lean Democrat in New Jersey the most recent poll is a major upset with Trump actually leading with plus one this poll however is from before Biden dropped out so it's very outdated if Biden was still in the race and more polls came out showing similar margins or if this map was based on the most recent polls alone I would make New Jersey tilt red but for now I'm going to make it likely Democrat and finishing up Maine with its second district the most recent poll shows Harris ahead plus 5 but when you take into account how it voted for Trump in 2020 with a margin of plus 7.4 and its current betting odds I'm going to make it likely Republican with every state outside of the highly contested Rust Belt and other Midwestern states filled in Trump is only a few states away from winning the election but let's first dive into the real repercussions of the debate exploring what States will see the biggest impact in polls and betting odds and how it will ultimately affect the election as a whole there were a lot of topics covered in the debate and I have no doubt both candidates will be using clips that make them look good for the next few months but it'll have an even bigger impact than just that since an estimated 2third of Americans were planning on watching it all the way through that's from a series of polls taken from NPR prior to the debate NPR also found that only 30% of people who were pulled would let the debate impact how they'd end up voting as for who won that's pretty split right out of the gate a poll from Oklahoma found that 52.5% of people thought that Harris won compared to 42.86% saying Trump won and 4.63% saying neither won another poll shows that 51% think she won while 49% say Trump won and another one from NJ shows that a majority think Trump won with 51.8% to 43.74 that think Harris won and the other four .8 think neither or just don't know honestly though in my opinion I don't think this is enough to really sway anyone unless you were an independent who was already teetering one way or another I think that Taylor's Swift endorsing Harris will probably have a bigger impact sadly enough but who knows I do expect Trump to be making a steady comeback over the next few months like he had been doing before this Infamous debate and I think that the debate between JD B and Tim walz will also not be enough to sway a lot of people when that happens but I'm sure it'll be entertaining okay now let's see how this post-debate election prediction will end first let's fill in the slightly less competitive states that we have left which are Minnesota Ohio as well as Nebraska second district Minnesota is a very surprisingly close State this election mainly because it is voted for Democrats longer and more times than any other state in the nation over the last 60 years or more polling averages show her ahead by a margin of plus seven with Trump seemingly getting closer and closer as time goes on and I expect that change to get more drastic because of the debate the most recent poll shows about the same number with Harris ahead plus seven when we look at Poly Market the odds are not in Trump's favor with Harris having a 93% chance of winning Minnesota in my opinion if Trump were to spend a whole lot of money on ads and spend a whole lot of time campaigning here it's not unreasonable to think that it would flip but based on the current numbers I think it's safe to say that it'll likely end up being a lean Harris state for now in Ohio things have been pretty much the same since 2016 with Trump winning it by a margin of plus 8.1 to 2020 where he won It Again by a margin of plus eight and now plls this cycle show about the same number the most recent poll shows Trump winning by a margin of plus eight which is his lowest margin against Harris so far but I think we'll see a large shift to the right not only because of the debates but also because of General trans here on poly Market Trump is highly favored to win with a 92% chance based on over $600,000 worth of bets and if polls start consistently showing double- digit margins I think we can safely make Ohio solid red but for now I'm only going to make it a likely Trump State and in Nebraska's second district polls here overall have been all over the place with some showing a trump win and others showing a Biden and then a Harris win the most recent poll shows Harris winning by a marginal plus five and poly Market shows that democ have an 81% chance of winning this District these are lower odds and margins than what Biden got in 2020 where this District voted for him with plus 6.6 but I still think it'll ultimately go to Harris so I'm going to give it to her in a lean margin with only three states and 44 votes remaining neither candidate has won even though Trump is much closer to win Trump only needs one of these last three states while Harris needs to win them all but these are some of the most important most contested and most affected from the debate states in the nation starting us off is the state of Wisconsin 538 current polling average shows Harris ahead by a margin of plus 2.7 and the most recent poll shows her winning with plus three in 2020 it voted for Biden by a super slim margin of plus 0.63 and had a polling error of almost eight points in Trump's favor just something to keep in mind on py Market it's even closer with Harris only favor to win with a 59% chance with all of this data I would usually put Wisconsin as a tilt Democrat state but I think it's going to end up getting closer and closer as time goes on that or Trump will make a huge comeback since the historical polling error is so massive but for now I'll just leave it as a tossup next up is Michigan Michigan was not as close in 2020 where it went to Biden by a margin of plus 2.8 and had a polling error of about 5 Points again favoring Trump as of today Harris leads Trump by an average margin of plus one .9 with the last poll also showing her winning with plus three even though the average margin is closer than in Wisconsin poly Market shows that she has about the same chance of winning Michigan with 57% again I would usually make Michigan a tilt blue state with all of this data but until we see any major changes because of the debate and accounting for that historical polling error I'm only going to make it another toss-up State and finally the most important state in the Rust Belt also being the place where the debate happened Pennsylvania in 2020 Pennsylvania went to Biden by a margin of just plus 1.2 with a polling error of about 3.5 favoring Trump yet again since Biden dropped out the Keystone State is shaping up to be one of the closest in the nation and definitely the closest in this region currently Harris leads Trump plus 0.7 with the last poll showing a perfect tie with both candidates getting 45% the previous several polls however are just as split with Trump leading in three of the last six poly Market also shows Trump could be actually ahead since even though Harris is leading in the polls Trump actually has a better chance of winning with 51% to 49% with all that in mind Pennsylvania is the only state that I am confident in tilting to the Republicans as of right now in this region and adding Pennsylvania to Trump's tally wins him the election and it could be a land slide if he improves in Michigan and Wisconsin but what do you think will happen and what do you think of the debate let us know in the comments