The 2024 Election Map Based On Betting Odds From ALL 50 STATES!

with the election in just two months poly Market's 2024 election forecast gives Trump a 53% chance at winning to just 46 for kamla Harris and today we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on the individual betting markets from every single state we'll Begin by filling in the solid States for both candidates these are states where Harris and Trump have a 95% chance at winning or more and so I'm going to start off with the safe States for the vice president we have Washington Oregon and California all the West Coast is going to be solid blue now this is in terms of her odds of winning she is very likely to win the states in terms of her margin of the vote she might win them by less than 15 points but in terms of her odds Victory they really are very high these are states that have voted Democratic for four decades we also have Hawaii Colorado Illinois almost all of the Northeast with New York Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island New Jersey Delaware Maryland the District of Columbia and the first district of Maine while for Trump he's going to win in quite a few States as well basically all the states he's won by solid margins in 2016 and 2020 he's going to easily win Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virg Virginia Indiana and South Carolina giving him 122 electoral votes we're now going to move on to filling in the likely State states where either candidate has between a 75 to a 95% chance at winning now these states are still going to heavily favor one candidate or the other but they could vote the other way big surprises have happened before and they can happen again and so we're going to begin up in Minnesota this is Governor Tim Wall's home state if wals is on Harris's running M Minnesota be at least a lean State probably even tilt if Joe Biden hadn't dropped out Democrats would have lost Minnesota a state they haven't lost since 1972 but today KLA Harris with the governor as her running mate she has a 93% chance at winning in fact at one point odds for Joe Biden went as low as 57 56 even pretty abysmal for a democrat in such a blue States so Minnesota is going to be likely for Harris on our map but it's definitely one to watch considering Donald Trump almost won the state in 2016 when he lost it by just 1.5% we also have New Mexico five electoral votes a state that went to Biden by a double digit margin four years ago now Harris is not going to win that by that margin she's probably going to win by seven points at most it's going to be more competitive but she is still the favorite KLA Harris has a 91% chance at winning moving on to Maine in the Northeast we have a state that barely went to Hillary Clinton in 2016 she won it by less than three points Joe Biden did do much better four years ago winning it by nearly 10 and today KLA Harris is on track to win by somewhere in the middle of that range probably four to six points she has a 86% chance at carrying Maine this November so the state of Maine as a whole is going to be likely blue we also have neighboring New Hampshire this is another state where KLA Harris leads but it still could go the other way Donald Trump did very well in 2016 he lost to Hillary Clinton in the granite state by less than half a percentage point and today kamla Harris has just an 83% chance at winning which means there is a 1 in six chance that Trump will actually come out on top here and a one in six chance is not insignificant at all KLA Harris was just recently campaigning in New Hampshire really signaling her weakness in the state and the final likely Blue State on this map is Virginia 13 electoral votes a state that went to Biden by 10 points in the last election a state he probably would have lost if get stayed in the race Donald Trump actually took the lead in the polling before Joe Biden dropped out but today KLA Harris is doing much better she's an 86% chance at winning but this is not at all a state Trump needs to win the fact that this state is even remotely competitive is a very bad sign for the Democratic party but they're still the favorites nonetheless and will win its 13 electoral votes if things go as expected before I continue only 16% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below moving on now to the likely Trump States we have the second district of Maine and I forgot earlier AA Harris is slightly favored in the second district of Nebraska but we do have five remaining likely red States on this map we'll begin in Iowa where Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite it's nearly a solid Blue State he has a 94% chance at winning and he really has transformed Iowa a state that voted for Obama just 12 years ago then Trump shifted the state 15 points to the right in 2016 and won it by nearly double digit margin he won it by eight points in 2020 if you were wondering and looking at the odds it's basically safe red but at this point for a map it's going to be likely Republican but I do expect his chances to only go up from here we also have Iowa the odds are almost identical Trump has a 93% chance at winning and you see basically the same progression 2012 it was blue and then 2016 it voted for Trump by a likely margin and the Republican governors of both Iowa and Ohio reelected by a solid 20o margin in 2022 these states are no longer in play they were very close in the early 2000s that is no longer the case both of them are going to vote Republican for decades to come we also have Alaska where Trump's odds sit at 92% still very high but it's surprising to see that the the former president is doing better in Iowa and Ohio than Alaska in Alaska's entire history as a state it only voted blue once in 1964 for lynon B Johnson every other time since Alaska gained statehood it has voted Republican and so there's no doubt Trump is going to win it but his odds are just slightly lower in Alaska than in two other states that have only recently joined the Republican column we also have the state of Texas another state that has a very long history of going Republican the last time a Democrat won it was Jimmy Carter in 1976 and today Trump has an 89% chance at winning there's no doubt he is going to win Texas in 2020 there was some talk that maybe Biden could pull off a victory here but in the end it wasn't really that close Trump still won by nearly six points this time he's probably going to win by a double digit margin the Lone Star State is also going to be likely red the second largest state in terms of electoral votes we also have Florida which has the third largest at 30 electoral vote the state is no longer competitive it used to be the ultimate Battleground the most important state in the country just because of how competitive it was I mean just look at the 2012 map Florida was the only tilt State and then in 2016 it was once again tilt in favor of Donald Trump and so looking at the odds for Trump today it's really surprising to see that he has an 86% chance at winning he is the undoubted favorite to win the Sunshine State for a third time he won it by an even larger margin in 2020 compared to 2016 and he's probably going to improve off of his margin four years ago once again this November winning the state by somewhere around 7 to 10 points Florida is going to be the last likely State on this map and so we're now left with the seven key Battleground States these are the seven states that are talked about the very most and with all the other states filled in Donald Trump has 219 electoral votes KLA Harris at 226 basically a dead heat before we get to these ultra competitive Battlegrounds fortunately for Trump though he has a pretty strong grip on quite a few of them especially the competitive states in the Sun Belt I mean Arizona Georgia and North Carolina since 1996 they've only voted for a Democrat once for North Carolina that was in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama while for Georgia and Arizona it was for Joe Biden in 2020 and so the only times that these states have gone to a Democrat were under very good circumstances first in 2008 when George W Bush was B basically the most unpopular president in recorded history and then in 2020 Donald Trump wasn't doing too well because of the economy and basically it was the year of covid before the election that costed Trump his second term now today that is not at all what is happening Trump is in a much better position than he was in four years ago now Democrats are in power and with inflation and the economy really not doing that great it is Joe Biden K Harris that are going to be blamed for the issues and so these three swing States Trump has a significant advantage and just because of their Republican history in 2016 Trump won North Carolina by nearly four points Georgia by five and Arizona by nearly four considering just how narrow Biden's margins in Georgia and Arizona were it is pretty unlikely that Harris is going to win them while North Carolina Biden couldn't even win four years ago when basically every single poll said he was and so coming back to the map are going to fill in North Carolina for 16 electoral votes this is a pretty important state if Trump loses North Carol Ina he is not going to win but luckily for him he has a 63% chance of winning the taril state for a third time in a row the odds for him have been going up over the last month if you look at where it was just a month ago he was at 60 now he's at 63 the odds have been pretty consistent Trump has always been the favorite in the Tar Hill State and so North Carolina is going to be the first lean Red State on the map and lean states are characterized by odds between 55 to 75% % in Arizona Trump's odds are just slightly lower at 62% and look at the big shift here I mean just a few weeks ago Trump had a 50% chance at winning in fact it was basically neck and neck between Harris and Trump now Trump is the clear favorite his odds are higher than what they were at the end of June right before the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump and so Arizona is a state where the numbers have gotten a lot better for the former president it's a state where Republican an aren't doing well with the senate race with Carrie Lake as the nominee but on the presidential level Trump is on track to win there's no doubt about that Arizona is going to be lean Republican as well and in Georgia the former president has a 60% chance at winning his odds here have also improved over the last month pretty close to where he was right before that disastrous debate that ultimately push Joe Biden out of the presidential race and so all three of these Sun Bel States will get Donald Trump to 262 electoral votes which means all he needs is just one out of the remaining Russ spelt States that'll be enough for him to clinch the presidency for a second time but before we move up there we're going to fill in Nevada first which hasn't voted Republican since 2004 when George W bush won his reelection today though things are a little different Trump lost Nevada by 2.4% to both Clinton and Biden however this does signal the shift to the right the state has taking in the last few years Joe Biden improved basically everywhere else across the country but in Nevada this was one of the few states where he actually didn't and in terms of the state's electorate it is much more in favor of the GOP now than it was 4 and8 years ago in 2022 Nevada elected a republican Governor Joe Lombardo in favor of the incoming Democrat Steve cisac according to the betting markets Trump has a 53% chance at winning the state which he has never won before Nevada is going to be the only only tilt State on our map six electoral votes going in favor of the former president this puts him just two away from the presidency and now we're finally going to finish off the map with the three blue wall States and they're called the blue wall because from 1992 all the way until 2016 they voted for the Democratic nominee in every single election but 8 years ago Trump managed to win every single one of them it was a big surprise nobody thought these states were even in play but he pulled out the Victory and he won 306 electoral votes and then in 2020 Joe Biden did win he had to win all three of these states back by narrow margins and in 2024 the election is going to converge here both campaigns have to win states in the midwest KL Harris needs to win all three of them which is going to be very very difficult KLA Harris is not Joe Biden Joe Biden was doing much better in midwestern polls than Harris is right now while Donald Trump can win any one of them even if it's just Wisconsin which has the least electoral votes he is still going to get over 270 and so we're going to begin in Wisconsin where KLA Harris has a 56% chance of winning it's basically a tilt State it's barely made it into the lean Democratic category it's a state that only favores KLA Harris because she chose Tim Walls to be her running mate and of course Wisconsin is neighboring Minnesota but honestly walls isn't going to have too much of an impact outside of his home state and so on our map it is going to be lean blue but I still do believe pretty strongly that Trump is going to win the state in the very end Wisconsin is generally the most conservative out of the three it was the reddest in 2020 as well as in 2016 in neighboring Michigan Harris's odds are the exact same at 56% yes she is still slightly the favorite but her odds have come crashing down in the last few weeks in fact she had a two and three chance at winning just three weeks ago now she is barely the favorite 56% is probably going to drop even lower the next time we take a look at the betting markets honestly the next time we do a video like this both Wisconsin and Michigan are probably going to be read by that point but for now they're barely going to be lean States they honestly should be Ked States they're right above that 55% threshold but we'll keep you guys updated on how these odds change and so we're now left with just the Keystone State of Pennsylvania Joe Biden had an advantage here he was born in Pennsylvania but now Democrats have lost that and it's unfortunate for them because this is by far the most important state on the entire map whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the election KLA Harris could win Nevada and still lose the election if she can't win Pennsylvania she could also even win Arizona but without Pennsylvania she is not going to get to 270 Pennsylvania is make or break for the Harris campaign but bad news for her right now Donald Trump has a 55% chance at winning his odds have gone up over the last few weeks in fact they were at just 42% when Harris first entered the race her odds went up quite a bit at the very beginning but now Trump is starting to resurface again and so the state is going to be lean in favor of the GOP and so according to the betting markets Trump is on track to win with 287 electoral votes KLA Harris at just 251 Trump is gaining in virtually every single Battleground State and in terms of the election as a whole the former president according to poly Market's 2024 election forecast has a 53% chance at winning His Highest since July thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below