The 2024 Election Map Based On The NEWEST Poll From ALL 50 STATES!

as we enter September Trump is surging back and now leads in not just all the swing States but also states that previously weren't even thought to be competitive and so in this video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on the newest poll conducted from all 50 states we'll begin on the west coast with the state of Washington where KLA Harris leads by 14 points just shy of the 15 points threshold for a state to be solid and so Washington is going to be likely blue while down in Oregon the vice president is ahead by Five Points just five points in a state that Biden carried by 16 points four years ago Oregon isn't even going to be likely blue it is going to be lean for kamla Harris and in her home state of California the golden state is among the most liberal in the entire country KLA Harris previously served as a California attorney general and as a senator from the state for 4 years before becoming vice president and according to the only poll conducted between her and Trump so far she leads by a wide 25 Point margin California will be the only solid Blue State on the west coast moving on now to Nevada our first competitive State it's six electoral votes are not going to be make or break for any candidate but if Trump can win the Silver State a state that Republicans haven't won since 2004 he'll be in very good shape to win the remaining Battleground State and so Nevada currently is going to be tilt Republican with Donald Trump leading by 1% according to the latest Insider Advantage poll looking at the entire spread of polls it's clear that Trump is the favorite in the Silver State against kamla Harris it's a state that Biden won by the same margin in 2020 as Clinton did in 2016 even though the rest of the country shifted to the left Biden improved in many states but Nevada was not one of them generally it is Shifting to the right especially after 2022 when the state elected Joe Lombardo a republican to replace their incumbent Democratic governor Steve cisac and so Nevada is going to be tilt red on our map a very bad sign for the Harris campaign while in Arizona this is another hyper competitive swing state that Biden won four years ago today though Trump leads by a 1% margin according to the latest poll once again conducted by Insider Advantage Trump also leads by three points in a previous poll done by Emerson College and the hill and considering just how narrow the margin was for Biden in 2020 just a 0.31% margin separated him and the former president it's not going to take too much for Trump to be able to win Arizona back and so the first two competitive Sun Belt states are both going to be tilt in favor of the GOP and we have our first two states on the map now going to the former president moving Eastward to Colorado we don't have any polling here it's a state that Biden won by 14 points there's no way Harris is going to do better better she might lead even by less than seven points when we finally get polling out of the state but for right now we're going to be generous to the Vice President in Place Colorado in the likely blue column while in New Mexico Harris leads by 10% according to the only poll conducted this one conducted by Emerson College and the hill which is a somewhat reputable pollster and a 10-point lead is relatively strong for Harris considering Biden W New Mexico by 11 points but generally the state is Shifting to the right as Hispanic voters are leaning more and more towards the GOP and New Mexico is the only state in the country with a Hispanic majority electorate and so today it's going to be likely blue but in the future this state is going to get significantly more competitive in the coming decades and so before we get to Texas we have a lot of these races in the middle of the country Trump is going to do very well in virtually all of them Utah Wyoming Idaho all states he's won by 2030 even 40 Point margins in the last two elections while we do have a poll from Montana Trump leads by 23 % according to rasm reports we have a CER race here between John Tester the incoming Democrat and Tim sheii the Republican nominee and Trump is probably going to be able to pull shihi up and help him win his race Montana is going to be solid red we also have North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district which according to the most recent poll Harris leads by 8% in the end she's obviously going to win by a lot less Trump could even win it but for right now just based on the polling alone Nebraska second district is going to be likely blue while Kansas and Oklahoma are both going to be placed into the solid Trump category before we continue only 16% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below finishing off the Western half of the Continental us we have the biggest prize for Trump and that is the state of Texas a state that hasn't voted blue since 1976 when Jimmy Carter won his first term and so according to polling today Trump leads by 133% this would be the largest ever victory for the former president in the Lone Star State in 2016 he won by nine points 2020 he won by six his margin four years ago wasn't the greatest but he's probably going to win by at least a double digigit margin this time around Texas is still very much a red State yes Democrats think they can flip it sometime soon but just considering how large of a state Texas is it's going to take them decades for them to be able to shift the millions of Voters they need to move in order for them to actually take control of Texas we also have Alaska and Hawaii Alaska is obviously going to be solid red while Hawaii is going to be safe for the vice president we're now going to move up into the Midwest which is going to be a highly consequential region there are many key States for both campaigns Trump must win in Iowa and Ohio and considering how well he's done in both 2016 and 201 202 it is very unlikely he loses these two states while for Harris she needs to win Tim wells's home state of Minnesota but she also has to win every single blue wall State the three states are Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania which will be a very tall order considering Trump won all three of these states just eight years ago we'll begin in Minnesota where KL Harris leads by Five Points according to the most recent survey USA poll this is pretty concerning considering that according to their previous poll from Late July she was ahead by double that margin and of Harris cannot do better than Biden in a state where her running mate is the literal incoming Governor she is not going to win the election if Biden outperforms Harris in Minnesota it's going to be very difficult for KLA Harris to win States like Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania which are significantly more competitive Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972 and it's the only state in the country with that distinction every other state went to Ronald in 1984 with the exception of just Minnesota and so the fact that the state is currently lean blue is very concerning to the Harris campaign down in Iowa though Trump is obviously going to win looking at the margin from 2016 when he won by nine points and then 2020 when he won by eight it's pretty pretty clear that Iowa is going to be a likely Red State once again while we do have our first ever PLL from Illinois between Harris and Trump Harris leads by 16 points just above that 15 Point threshold so the state is going to be solid blue and then Indiana we don't have any polling but obviously Trump is going to win by at least 15 points like he's done in the past two races in Ohio Trump leads by 7% according to the most recent rasmon poll not the strongest margin but it's clear Trump is going to win he's made a huge impact here I mean just look at 2012 Iowa and Ohio were both blue States four years later Trump wins them by nearly double digit margins that's the impact he's had and the two Republican Governors from Iowa and Ohio are both reelected by solid 20o margins in 2022 so Ohio is going to vote pretty similarly to Iowa once again and it's going to be likely red we're now left in the midwest with just Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania for Harris to even have a chance at getting to 270 she has to win all three of these states there's really no realistic way around it and to beginning in Wisconsin KLA Harris is ahead by 1.4% in the polling average but that's mainly because of this one very skewed Bloomberg poll that somehow has her up by eight points Trump on the other hand is leading by 1% in the most recent poll so it's going to be tilt Republican on our map and if you look at just how bad Wisconsin polls have been in the past Biden was supposed to win the state by 6.7% in 2020 he eventually won by 0.7 so you really cannot trust any of these garbage polls that show Harris leading by any margin greater than even just 1% Trump up plus one is much more reasonable considering he did do better in the state in 2016 than Biden did in 2020 even when he won it back so Wisconsin according to the most recent poll is going to be tilled Republican and just like that Harris is basically already out of the running considering again she has to win all three of these states moving Eastward though to Michigan the former president is in a tie with KLA Harris according to real cair politics however if you do look at the real breakdown Trump is at 47% KL Harris at 46.6 so in real it Trump has a very slight lead and so the Wolverine state is going to be tilt Republican on the map due to rounding ER it shows a tie but the real numbers have Trump ever so slightly ahead so the Wolverine state is also going to be tilt Republican the fourth tilt Trump State on the map so far Pennsylvania though is going to be a little different it's not going to be a tilt State it'll actually be lean for Donald Trump he leads by 2% according to the most recent poll again Harris is only head because of this one Bloomberg morning console poll it's honestly a garbage poll and they're always putting out numbers that favor Harris with such unreasonable margins if Pennsylvania goes to Trump there really is no way around it for Kala Harris she will lose if the Keystone State goes red even if she wins Nevada and Arizona she cannot make up the 19 electoral votes that Pennsylvania is worth it is the fifth richest state in electoral votes and that is why it is the most important state on the entire map right now we're now going to move up to the Northeast where many of these races are going to be safe for Harris we have Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island as well as Maryland and the District of Colombia while both New Jersey and Delaware are going to be likely for Harris fundamentally these states are simply more competitive while in New Jersey you also had that scandal with Bob bendeez and him being charged multiple times of corruption while a sitting Senator we do have polling in New York though and it shows Harris leading by just 14 points in a state that Biden won by 23 four years ago in fact if Harris does win by less than 15% it would be the first time a Democrat doesn't carry the Empire State by a solid margin since Michael duus in 1988 36 years ago so New York on the map right now is going to be likely blue another likely blue state that bought and carried by 15 points or more in the last election in New Hampshire we do have a new poll that shows Harris up by five very okay although you do have to keep in mind that the University of New Hampshire is a very left leaning pollster and you'll see why once we look at the polls for Maine a five po margin is okay it's less than Biden's seven-point margin from 2020 but much better than how Clinton did in 2016 when she almost lost the state entirely winning it by just a third of a percentage point if Donald Trump can get within three points of New Hampshire it's going to be very bad for the vice president but for right now the granite state is going to be lean blue and to finish off the Northeast with Maine the outlar vote is worth two electoral votes and it has Harris up by 177% this is a very biased poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire but for the purposes of this map we are going to fill it in KLA Harris leads by a solid 17 point margin we obviously know that's not going to happen I mean just eight years ago Clinton carried Maine by just 3% and even in 2020 when Joe Biden was a very strong candidate against Donald Trump he only won the state by 9.1 we also have s from the first and second district also conducted by the University of New Hampshire it was the same sample in those districts Harris leads by 28 according to the most recent bll from the first district while in the second she's ahead by five obviously this isn't going to happen Donald Trump is the clear favorite in the second district which he won in both 2016 and 2020 but for right now the first district of Maine is going to be solid blue and the second district lean blue although in the end that is not what the map is going to look like but for the purposes of filling in this map we are going to give the entire state of Maine to kamla Harris finishing up the map now with the Southeastern quadrant we have a very competitive election Trump at 178 Harris at 214 but Trump is going to get a big Boost from the southern states Louisiana Arkansas Missouri Mississippi Alabama all going to be solid red while we do have our first ever poll from Tennessee and it shows the former president ahead by 26 percentage points we also have Kentucky and in West Virginia Trump leads up by 27 points according to our first poll there and so we have another solid red State South Carolina is going to be safe Trump as well but we do have four remaining states that are going to be a little bit more competitive Virginia is a state that shouldn't even be close Joe Biden won it by a double digit margin four years ago but today it has become among the most competitive Donald Trump is only behind by three points according to the most recent poll there was another poll that didn't make it on to RCP that also had Harris up by three if she wins Virginia by three points she is done Republicans if they even get close to winning the state they're going to win the election with a pretty big electoral vote margin if Joe Biden had stayed in the race Virginia probably would have gone red now Harris has in some way saved the Democratic Party from a humiliating defeat but she is by no means winning and so Virginia is going to be lean blue but just barely and she should be very worried about where she is in the state right now considering that we also had another poll that is on 538 that does Harris leading by this exact same slim three-point margin which is well within the margin of error and so Virginia is going to be lean blue it's a state that is Shifting to the right that just recently elected a republican Governor 3 years ago North Carolina though is a state that Trump has never lost he won it in 2016 by nearly four points Win It by 1% in 2020 even though the entire polling average showed that Biden was going to win throughout the entirety of the campaign nobody thought Trump was going to be a able to win North Carolina but somehow lose in Georgia and that is why the 2020 map was such a big surprise it was probably the flip-flop between expectations and results in North Carolina and Georgia now looking at the latest Tar Hill State polls Trump has led in all three of the most recent polls he leads by 1% according to inside Advantage the hill and Emerson College and Fox News and so as of right now North Carolina is going to be KT Republican but it's going to be very difficult for Harris WI a state that Biden couldn't even win for years ago and the Democrats have only won once since 1976 moving down to neighboring Georgia it's 16 electoral votes are in a pretty good place for Trump as well he leads by 0.2% in the polling average I couldn't find the breakdown for this latest Insider Advantage poll and so I'm going to give the state to Trump as a whole as we do have a tie in the most recent poll but Trump leads in the polling average as a whole if the peach state goes in favor of trump he'll be on track to winning the election all he has to do is flip back Georgia and Arizona and win one of the three uper Midwestern states and considering how well he's doing in Pennsylvania it doesn't seem like it'll be that difficult Georgia just like Arizona is a state that Trump doesn't have to do all that much in in order to win back the margin was just so narrow in fact Georgia was the closest state in the entire Country Joe Biden who ran under very good circumstances for Democrats he was the first Democratic candidate to win Georgia since 1992 but right now we're seeing a much more even electr we don't have Co going on we don't have an economy that isn't doing too great because of a global pandemic that is what Trump faced in 2020 he is no longer facing that and that is why he is automatically in a much better position and it's probably enough for him to just by default win back states he lost by less than 1% so Georgia is also going to be tilt Republican on our map and finally we're left with the Sunshine State of Florida this is the third largest state in the country by population and it used to be among the most competitive just 12 years ago Florida was the only tilt State on the map it was also a tilt state in 2016 but in 2020 we really started to see a shift to the right Trump somehow did worse in a huge majority of States but somehow did better in Florida he actually won it by a three-point margin even though he was supposed to lose to Biden according to polling throughout the entirety of the election cycle four years ago he came out on top we also now have both Republicans in the two Senate seats and the governorship was secured by Ronda Sanchez for a second time in 2022 Florida is firmly a red State now but according to the most recent poll Trump leads by 3% on the presidential level the state is going to be slightly more competitive than what we saw for Des santis in 2022 when he won reelection by a 20o margin but there's no doubt Trump is going to win Florida that is why you really haven't seen too much polling from the state and it's not even listed as a Battleground State anymore so the Sunshine State is going to be lean red but in the end Trump can probably win by around 7 to 10 points and so according to the single newest poll from every single state Trump leads with 311 electoral votes Harris at 227 as we enter the month of September and so with two months to go KL Harris right now is on track to giving the worst Democratic performance for any candidate since 1988 thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below