The 2024 Election Map Based On Polling Averages From ALL 50 STATES!

with RFK JR out of the race and both party conventions over in this video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on polling averages from every single state to see who's currently the favorite to win the election this November and so we're just going to get right into it starting off on the west coast with Washington KLA Harris is on track to win by 11.3% points she leads by 14 points in the most recent Democratic sponsored poll while a previous one had her leading by just Five Points yes she is still the favorite but she's not doing nearly as well as Biden did when he won the state by 19 points 4 years ago down in Oregon the vice president is performing even worse she leads by Five Points in the most recent poll conducted this is a state that Biden carried by 16% and considering that the governor's election here went down to a single digigit margin in 2022 Oregon is a state that Trump can get competitive in over the next few months and so it's going to be placed into the lean Democratic column and finally in California this is kamla Harris's home state she served as a senator from the Golden State for 4 years before becoming vice president and today Harris leads by 25% according to the only poll we have from California so Donald Trump is on track to losing California for a third time in a row and it will be solid blue for the Vice President in neighboring Nevada the state is expected to be one of the most contentious this November Nevada went to Democrats in every single election since 2008 the last last time a republican won the silver state was 2004 but Trump has a real chance at flipping Nevada back just look at 2016 and 2020 when both Clinton and Biden won by the exact same 2.4% margin despite the entire rest of the country shifting to the left four years ago in 2022 we saw a republican win the governorship in Nevada it is a state that is moving to the right after a decade of democratic control and looking at polling today Donald Trump is on track to flipping the state and Win It by 1.4% he leads in all four of the most recent polls conducted here one of them was even done by the New York Times and Sienna College which is a left leaning pollster and so the state of Nevada is going to fall into the Tilt Republican column it is obviously going to be close but Trump is on track to winning a state he has never won before down in Arizona this is the state that boten carried in 2020 but Trump won in 2016 looking at the polling from here today Trump is on track to win by 0.2% Harris is basically being held up by this one New York Times poll showing her up by five points that was never going to happen Joe Biden only won Arizona by 0.3% it'll be very difficult for Harris to outperform her predecessor and on top of that considering just how narrow of a margin Trump lost by he really doesn't need to do M that much to take the state back and so it's a state that Trump has led in throughout the entirety of the 2024 cycle and it will be tilt Republican the second tilt State on this map we don't have any polling yet from Colorado it's expected to be a likely blue state with Harris winning by somewhere around a 7 to 10 point victory in New Mexico though we do have a poll that shows the vice president leading by barely a double digit margin this poll conducted by the hill and Emerson College Harris plus 10 it's an okay respectable margin considering Biden won the state by 11 points four years ago in the end new Mexico will probably be decided by a single digit margin but based on the polling alone it's going to be likely Democratic as well and so in terms of margins anything over 15 points is solid anything from 7 to 15 is likely any margin between 2 to 7 points is lean and any state decided by less than a twoo margin is going to be classified as being tilt moving down to Texas it's 40 electoral votes are going to be a huge prize for the former president Republicans have won Texas in every single election since 1980 the last Democrat to carry the Lone Star State was Jimmy Carter almost 50 years ago and so looking at the polling today Trump is on track to win by respectable 10-point margin this is larger than his margin in both 2016 when he won by 9 points and 2020 when he won by 5.6 there's no doubt that GOP will come out on top in Texas once again yes the state is generally shifting to the left but it's going to take them decades to flip a state this large Texas will be likely read in favor of the former president before we continue only 12% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below we're now going to move on to the states in the middle of the country Trump is going to win nearly every single one of them Utah Wyoming Idaho all going to be solid red in Montana we actually do have some polling Trump leads by 9 points the main reason we have pulling here is because of the competitive Senate race between John tester and Tim sheii with sheii leading by a fivepoint margin against the Democratic incumbent Republicans are on track to win Montana senate seat and Trump is going to help them do that on the presidential level at the top of the ticket so Montana is also going to be solid red and so will North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district we actually have some polling from the second district Harris leads by by 6.5 percentage points I would take this poll with a huge grain of salt one of them is democratic sponsored the other one has a pretty small sample size and honestly considering how volatile this district has been in the last few years we honestly will not know too much what to expect until the very end but currently according to the polls alone it's going to be lean blue while Kansas Oklahoma and Alaska will all be solid red and Hawaii will easily go in favor of kamla Harris moving up to the Midwest now this is where the election will be won or lost Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania KLA Harris must win all four of these states if she wants to have any realistic path at getting to 270 electoral votes the good news for her is that Joe Biden was able to win all four of these states four years ago but the bad news is that Wisconsin was decided by 610 of a percentage Point Pennsylvania by just over 1 % and Michigan was pretty close as well and it gets even worse because in 2016 Donald Trump won Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania he only needed to win one of these states to win the presidency he also came so close to floing Minnesota a state that hadn't voted red since the 1970s and so looking at polling from this region today it is among the most competitive in the country however Harris's chits of Governor Tim Walls of Minnesota to be her running mate has given her a boost in the state and she is on track to winning Minnesota by eight points mainly as a result of her vice presidential pick an a-point margin will fall into the likely range just barely Harris is no doubt the favorite in a state where her vice president is the current governor down in Iowa we don't actually have any polling but looking at its electoral history it used to be very close and went to Obama in 2012 but then in 2016 the state moves 15 points to the right Trump wins by a nearly double digigit margin he wins by almost the same margin in 2020 and it's Republican Governor Kim Reynolds was reelected by a 20o margin in 2022 Iowa is now a red State and it's going to be likely red on our map Trump will win by at least a double digigit margin come November and before we continue I want to tell you guys about a tool I use every day to keep up with the latest political developments it's called Ground news and you can sign up today using my link in the description below as the media continues to get more biased ground news gathers related articles from more than 50,000 sources from around the world in one place so you can compare how different Outlets cover the same topic take a look at this story on Robert F Kennedy Jr dropping out and endorsing Trump we can scroll down and compare coverage to see that sources on the left like the Rolling Stone are much more monotone in their description of events while those on the right like the Irish independent actually emphasize the Boost that Trump will receive as a result of this decision I especially love ground news's dedicated 2024 election page which compiles every single election related story in one place go to ground. news/ elction time to give it a try if you sign up through my link you'll get 40% off the Vantage plan which is what I use to get unlimited access to all features we're now going to take a look at the first blue wall State the three blue wall states are Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania and the reason why they're called the blue wall is because from 1988 and 1992 19 1988 for Wisconsin and 1992 for Michigan and Pennsylvania these three states voted blue in every single election helping Bill Clinton win twice Obama win twice and they were blue until 2016 When Donald Trump flipped all three of them in a huge surprise nobody thought that Clinton could lose States like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania she didn't visit Wisconsin for 6 months before the election instead she spent all of her time in States like North Carolina Florida and Texas states she really wasn't ever going to win and that was one of the big mistakes for Hillary Clinton 8 years ago and Donald Trump really showed in both 2016 and even 2020 when the election was very close here that he is a force to be reckoned with in the Midwest and fortunately for him the Midwest is the most important region on this map looking at the polling in Wisconsin Harris leads by a onepoint margin it's going to be very very close she recently took the lead but looking at the polling we are seeing a very Comm voluted race it really could go both ways and considering the fact that polling almost always overestimates Democrats Harris isn't in as good of a position as these numbers might suggest in 2020 Joe Biden was supposed to win Wisconsin by 6.7 percentage points in the end he won by 0.7 that is just how far off the polls were and so right now Wisconsin will be tilt blue based on the polling alone but considering what's happened in both 2016 and 2020 when Trump massively outperformed form's expectations a onepoint lead is not good enough we're seeing similar numbers in Michigan where Trump is behind by 2% Harris is doing relatively well although a big reason for her lead is this one outlier pull from Bloomberg that had the vice president up by 11 points and again this is another state that pulls massively overestimated Democrats Biden was supposed to win the Wolverine state by Four Points he eventually won it by 2.8 and that was mainly result of trump shooting up in the polls at the very end until just a week before the election Biden was still leading by nearly a double digit margin polls in Midwest in Wisconsin and Michigan and even Pennsylvania they have been known to always overestimate support for Democrats and so Michigan will also be tilt blue but again it really is not good enough yet Illinois though is going to be likely blue with Comm Haro is expected to hold on to a state that obam Clinton and Biden won by 17 points in the last three elections Indiana though is going to be solid red while neighboring Ohio Trump leads by 8.5 percentage points he is no doubt the favorite the Buckeye state is going to be likely read just like Iowa they voted very similarly in all three of the last elections and to finish off Midwest in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania this is Joe Biden's birth state and it really is a state KL Harris cannot lose mainly because of how much it's worth electorally 19 electoral votes that is make or break for the vice president if she loses Pennsylvania even if she can somehow hold on to Nevada and flip Arizona she will still lose the election and so looking at the polling in the Keystone State today Trump leads by 0.2% and has been ahead in all three of the most recent polls every poll conducted since August 13th has shown the former president leading this is not good if you're the Harris campaign Trump is on track to flipping Pennsylvania back which is a huge blow to Harris and the Democrats moving up to the Midwest we're really going to see a lot of blue starting in Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Maryland and the District of Columbia these states are all going to be safe for the vice president while New Jersey and Delaware are going to be slightly more competitive they're only going to fall into the likely category with their races probably decided by margins between 7 to 15 points New York though is also going to be likely for the vice president Harris leads by 14% according to a poll conducted by Sienna College this poll was done after Joe Biden dropped out so it is fairly accurate and KLA Harris is currently on track to becoming the first Democratic nominee not to win the Empire State by a solid 15-point margin since Michael dakus in 1988 moving up to New Hampshire we have a state that was very close in 2016 Trump can win the Granite State Clinton carried it by 0.37% 8 years ago this was the second closest state on the entire map and in 2024 Trump is only behind by by 5% he can definitely flip the state if he puts in enough time and effort but considering it's only worth four electoral votes it is unlikely that he does that and so kamla Harris will remain the favorite in New Hampshire with her on track to winning by elene margin and to finish off New England with the state of Maine its electoral votes are broken up just like Nebraska two for its at llarge vote and one electoral vote each for its two congressional districts starting off with the state of Maine as a whole we have two polls conducted by the University of New Hampshire which is a known left leaning pollster they show Harris leading by 13 points on average so the state is going to be likely blue in fact according to these polls Harris is on track to outperform Biden who only won the state by 9 points four years ago while Clinton almost lost Maine winning it by less than three in the end though Harris is unlikely to do better than Biden and these polls are probably going to be proven wrong especially this recent one as Harris up by 177% that simply isn't going to happen and so these polls have also screwed with the average in the first and second district in the first district Harris leads by nearly 25 points on average that's probably not going to happen it's going to be a 20o margin at most if she can even get there while in the second district currently Harris is on track to winning by 1.5% but again that's because of this most recent poll that really overestimated Democrats by quite a bit Harris plus 17 that is absolutely impossible in the state as a whole and in the second district they got their sample wrong as well but just going off the polling for this map we are going to place the second district of Maine into the Tilt blue category we're left now with just the Southeastern quadrant Trump might be behind on the Electoral tally right now but he's going to win nearly every single remaining State we're going to start off with the safe states in the Southeast beginning with Missouri and then Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia and South Carol Carolina Trump is going to win all of these states by safe 15o margins in just a few months we now have four competitive races that could prove to be pretty important Florida obviously isn't the swing state it once was but States like North Carolina and Georgia are still going to be pretty competitive if Harris can win North Carolina she would be on track to winning the election but good thing for Trump is that that's pretty unlikely at least based on what we're seeing right now and so we're going to start in Virginia where the former president is behind by Four Points KLA Harris leads by a very narrow margin we actually had another poll that isn't included in the RCP average that has Harris up by three as well so she really isn't performing that well in a state that Biden carried by a double digit margin just four years ago if Harris loses Virginia the election is over she has no chance without a state that was so blue in just the last election so Virginia is going to be lean Democratic this really isn't where the Harris campaign it wants to be with less than 3 months to go until election day downa North Carolina the Tar Hill state has not voted for a Democrat since 2008 which was the only time that any non-republican won the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and so today Donald Trump is on track to winning North Carolina for a third time in a row he leads by 0.9% in the polling average and in 2020 Biden was supposed to win North Carolina every single poll and BAS basically throughout the entirety of the election cycle Biden LED in the polling average in North Carolina but in the end he lost by 1.3% just like Clinton lost by a slightly larger margin in 2016 it is extremely unlikely that Harris will flip North Carolina when her two predecessors couldn't and so that's why it is going to be tilt Republican the fourth tilt Red State on this map in neighboring Georgia we have another very competitive State one that Biden actually won in the last election by 0.24% it was the most competitive state in the entire country and just like Arizona Biden's margin was just so small that it won't take too much for Trump to be able to win the state back when he is much more popular now than he was four years ago looking at the polling for the P State Trump leads by 1% on average in fact out of all eight of the most recent polls conducted here Harris leads in just one of them and it was a democratic sponsored poll and so in general Georgia is still a red State on the fundamental level it is still more conservative with Republican Governor Brian Kemp winning his reelection by a likely margin in 20122 and so Georgia will also fall into the Tilt Republican category but there's no doubt the former president is the favorite and the final State on the map we have Florida this used to be a tossup it used to be in the very middle and it's 30 electoral votes made it very valuable and it was almost always one of the most ped States but today it's clear just based on the amount of polling we have Florida is no longer that close it's a Republican state now Trump won it in 2016 by a narrow onepoint margin he then won it by a lean margin in 2020 when nobody thought he was going to hold on to Florida it was expected to vote in favor of Joe Biden and then just two years after Trump wins the Sunshine State for a second time in a row Republican Governor Ronda santis is reelected by a whopping 20o margin in a state that was supposed to be in the very middle and so today Florida is a lean Republican State Trump leads by 6.3% but honestly he could probably win by a likely 7 to 10 point margin in Just 2 months and so Florida the final State on the map is going to go in favor of Donald Trump and this will put him over 270 electoral votes he's at 286 the Comm Harris is 252 according to current polling averages from every single race yes we have many tilt red States but Trump could honestly lose quite a few of these and still end up on top thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election and join my Discord server Link in the description below