2024 ELECTION MAP FORECAST (POST-DEBATE)

kamla Harris's early momentum in the 2024 race seems to be fading while Donald Trump is making a powerful comeback as the front runner fresh off the recent debate the latest prediction markets give Trump a solid 50% chance of securing Victory reigniting the fierce battle for the White House in today's video we'll analyze the 2024 electoral map based on individual betting markets for each state we'll start by identifying the solid States for both candidates those where either Trump or Harris have a higher than 95% chance of winning first let's look at Harris's safe States Washington Oregon and California the Pacific coast blue wall is expected to hold strong for the ninth consecutive election we also have Hawaii Colorado and Illinois in the Northeast the safe states are New York Vermont Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland and Washington DC Harris is also highly favored to win Maine's deeply Democratic First District on Trump side he's projected to take Montana Idaho Wyoming and Utah moving through the Great Plains his strongholds and include North and South Dakota Nebraska's Statewide vote the first and third districts Iowa Missouri Kansas Oklahoma and Arkansas in the south Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee and South Carolina are solid for Trump additionally he's favored to win in West Virginia Kentucky and Indiana bringing his total to 128 electoral votes next we'll look at the states where the odds of either candidate winning range between 80 and 95% these states are leaning heavily toward either Trump or Harris but surprising could still happen starting with Harris her running mate Tim waltz's home state of Minnesota is likely to stay blue for the 13th election cycle in a row Biden secured Minnesota by seven points in 2020 and current forecasts give Harris a 93% chance of winning the state Harris is also expected to maintain control of New Mexico which has five electoral votes Biden won the state by 11 percentage points in 2020 and now Harris is given a 91% chance of success moving to Nebraska's second district where Democrats have an 81% % chance of winning one electoral vote Biden carried this District by over six points in 2020 and it continues to Trend leftward in Virginia Harris is poised to win its 13 electoral votes although polls suggest the race could be tighter than before however betting markets still favor Harris giving her an 88% chance to win the state in New England Harris is also likely to win New Hampshire and Maine despite being semi-competitive New Hampshire went for Biden by seven points and Maine by 9 in 2020 now Harris's odds stand at 85% in New Hampshire and 86% in Maine with projected margins of Victory between four and six points before diving into the likely Trump states only around 20% of you are subscribed so take a second to hit that free subscribe button below to receive more content like this leading up to election day starting with Alaska Trump is highly likely to secure a victory with a 91% chance of winning just under the safe category the last time a Democrat won in Alaska was in 1964 but Trump's 2020 win by 10 points was the slimmest for a republican since 1968 in Ohio a state with 17 electoral votes that used to be a key Battleground it now leans heavily Republican poly markets gives Trump a 91% chance of winning after he won by eight points in both 2016 and 2020 next up is Florida where Trump is heavily favored to keep the state in Republican hands for the fourth election in a row with its 30 electoral votes Florida once known as a classic swing state has shifted Republican after Trump won by a larger margin in 2020 than in 2016 in 2022 both Governor Ron de santis and Senator Marco Rubio were reelected by significant margins each exceeding 15 points Holly markets currently gives Trump an 83% chance of winning Florida looking at Texas another state likely to favor Trump the state's 40 electoral votes are critical although Biden received 46.5% of the Texas vote in 2020 the best result for a Democrat since 1976 urban areas trending leftward have been countered by the increasingly conservative Rio Grand Valley making a democratic flip unlikely poly markets assigns Trump an 87% chance of victory in Texas altogether Ohio Florida and Texas pushed Trump's total to 218 electoral votes just eight shy of Harris's 226 lastly I nearly forgot to mention Maine's second congressional district which is also expected to go to Trump the district the largest east of the Mississippi River has supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and his odds of winning now stand at 81% now we are left with 7 critical Battleground States Each of which has garnered significant attention throughout this election cycle all of these states were decided by less than a 3point margin in the 2020 election Nevada voted blue in both Cycles while North Carolina remained red but the other five states flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 in the current 2024 race neither Trump nor Harris has better than a 65% chance of winning any of these states indicating no clear Advantage this update reflects tight contests without any states leaning strongly in one direction for now Harris holds a narrow electoral vote lead at 226 compared to Trump's 219 North Carolina is the most competitive State leaning slightly in Trump's favor following the census North Carolina gained an additional electoral vote bringing its total to 16 according to poly markets Trump has a 56% chance of winning the state North Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to federal office since Barack Obama's 2008 Victory and Republicans have since secured the last three presidential races and five Senate seats each one by margins under six points North Carolina is seen as a reliably competitive yet Republican leaning State decision desk HQ and the hills polling averages show Trump ahead by a slim 0.4% with a breakdown of 48.2% for Trump and 48% for Harris Trump leads in five of the last six polls with one showing a tied race although the haris campaign has signaled optimism about flipping North Carolina it may be more of a strategic show than a realistic expectation with the Republicans typically outperforming the polls their advantage remains strong in the Sun Belt Georgia and Arizona were the tightest contests in 2020 both going to Biden by less than half a point both states have undergone significant political shifts driven by rapid population growth and diversification in their major Metro areas Phoenix and Atlanta these shifts have not only helped Biden in the 2020 presidential election but also contributed to democratic victories in key Senate and gubernatorial races in 2024 polling data between Biden and Trump revealed that Trump was making notable gains among young voters and minority groups critical segments in both Georgia and Arizona these Trends were evident in the overall averages with Trump leading Biden by four points in Georgia before Biden withdrew from the race and by 5.7% in Arizona following Harris's entry into the race the polls have tightened considerably the latest Arizona average based on 25 polls shows a deadlock between Harris and Trump both securing 47.7% support similarly they are tied in Georgia based on 22 polls Trump ahead by a slim 0.33% with a breakdown of 48.5% for Trump and 48.2% for Harris considering the razor thin margins in both States in 2020 and the forecasted National shift towards Trump poly markets currently gives him the upper hand in both States Republicans are favored to reclaim Arizona with a 59% chance identical to their odds in North Carolina in Georgia they have a 58% chance of winning on the electoral map these states push Trump to 2 62 electoral votes just eight shy of the 270 needed to become the second president to serve non-consecutive terms four Battlegrounds remain two of these favor vice president Harris Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes and Michigan with 15 these States along with Pennsylvania make up the upper Rust Belt Corridor Trump narrowly flipped all three in 2016 but Biden returned them to the Democratic column in 2020 securing his victory had Trump kept any of the three he would still be in office by 2024 Wisconsin and Michigan show favorable trends for Harris since her nomination she holds a 2.7 point lead in Wisconsin with 49.2% compared to Trump's 46.5% according to 30 polls in Michigan her lead is slimmer with 48.6% to Trump's 47.1% poly markets gives her a 58% chance of winning in both States this is logical as Wisconsin's polls slightly favor her while Michigan is historically more democratic voting for Biden by 2.8% in 2020 compared to 0 .6% in Wisconsin together these two states raise Harris's total to 251 electoral votes leaving her 11 behind Trump only Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes and Nevada with six remain in play prediction markets suggest that Trump has a slight edge with a 50% chance of winning in Nevada and 51% in Pennsylvania this is significant as Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes could decide the outcome of the election this November in this scenario Pennsylvania will likely determine whether the presidency goes to Harris or Trump TR if Trump wins Pennsylvania he's expected to secure 287 electoral votes whereas without it Harris could narrowly claim victory with 270 it's no surprise that Pennsylvania is receiving so much media attention it's the pivotal state in this election feel free to share your thoughts on this electoral map in the comments and let me know what videos you'd like to see next don't forget to subscribe to the channel and hit the like button if you enjoy the video you can explore more content here and thanks again for watching see you in the next one