The 2024 Election Map Based On The Prediction Markets (TRUMP LEADS!)

with 70 days to go until the election poly Market's 2024 election forecast gives Donald Trump a 50% chance at retaking the White House and in this video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on the betting odds for every single state the betting markets have proven themselves to be one of the most effective ways to predict elections in many instances they are just as accurate or even more accurate than what the polls say We'll Begin by filling in the solid States for both candidates these are states where either Trump or Harris have a 95% chance or more of winning and so we'll start off with the safe blue States kamla Harris is easily the favorite to win Washington Oregon and California on the west coast as well as Colorado Hawaii and Illinois and in the Northeast New York Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Road Island New Jersey Delaware Maryland the District of Colombia and the first district of Maine are all going to be solid for the vice president as for Trump he's the favorite in Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district along with Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia Indiana and South Carolina and so with these solid States filled in for both candidates Trump is at 122 electoral votes Harris at 191 but but there are many likely States for Trump that will help him make up the deficit looking at those States now likely states are ones where either candidate has between a 75 to a 95% chance at winning so these states are still going to favor one candidate or the other but they could get increasingly more competitive as November approaches and in the past they have been decided by margins of 15 percentage points or less and so we'll begin with the two states of Iowa and Ohio two states that have voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 both times Trump carried these two states by around 8 to n points before this though Iowa and Ohio were Obama States back in 2012 they were very much in the middle until Trump shifted these states by 15 points to the right and held on to them in 2020 in 2022 Iowa Republican Governor Kim Reynolds and Ohio Republican Governor Mike dwine both won their re-elections by solid 20 point margins and today they're among the most Republican states in the country Iowa and Ohio are both likely read we also have Alaska a state Trump has not won by a solid margin the last Republican to win Alaska by 15 points or more was John McCain in 2008 there's no doubt Trump is going to win the state it's just that there's slightly less confidence in Trump here than in some of the other states where he's up by 20 30 points in the polls and so Alaska Trump has a 90% chance at winning while in Texas this is going to be a big victory for the former president he carried the Lone Star State by six points in 2020 by nine points in 2016 and in 2024 he's probably going to do better in Texas than he's ever done before yes the state generally is Shifting to the left but that is happening very slowly I mean in such a huge state of over 20 million people it is going to take a long time for Democrats ever to be ahead in Texas if they even get to that point and as of right now the Republican party has a 85% chance at holding on to the second largest state in the country Alaska will also be likely read in the final likely State for the former president is Florida 30 electoral votes Trump has an 83% chance at winning just like Iowa and Ohio this state used to be among the most competitive in fact it was the top Battleground State Obama won Florida by in 2012 by less than 1% it was the only tilt State on the map it was also of course very close in 2000 when Bush won by just a few hundred votes and so today Donald Trump has taken Florida and put it firmly in the Republican Camp Florida is a red State we saw that with the 20-point re-election victory of Ronda santis in 2022 and of course looking at the margets today Democrats have a very low chance at flipping a state they haven't won in 12 years Florida is going to give Trump an additional 30 electoral votes and Trump now takes the lead at 218 before we continue only 15 % of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below we're now going to take a look at the likely States for kamla Harris starting off in Minnesota which is Governor Tim Wall's home state walls has provided the vice president with a booer Harris has a 93% chance at winning a state Democrats haven't lost since 1972 and looking at the odds Biden actually only had a 56% chance at one point right before he dropped out Republicans can win in Minnesota just look at 2016 when Trump came within two points of flipping it against Hillary Clinton and when looking at the entire trajectory of the Midwest it won't be too long until Republicans do flip Minnesota as the entire Rust Belt is Shifting to the right but with walls on the ballot with Harris KLA Harris is the favorite she has a 93% chance Minnesota is going to be likely blue New Mexico will also be likely for the Democratic party they have a 91% chance at winning Joe Biden win Minnesota by 11 points but the state today is Shifting to the right as Hispanic voters continue moving in favor of the GOP and New Mexico is the only state in the country with a Hispanic majority electorate and the state is also going to be likely blue but probably not for too much longer moving up to Maine we have a state where Harris has an 86% chance at winning Maine can also get competitive just like Minnesota in 2016 Clinton came out with just a three-point Victory four years later though Biden wins it by a nearly double digit margin but today KLA Harris is performing all right she has an 86% chance at winning she's probably going to win the outlar vote and the two electoral votes that come along with it from the state of Maine moving down to Virginia we have a state where Joe Biden before he dropped out at one point he had just a 57% chance at winning a state the Democrats haven't lost since 2004 and a state that really moved to the left quite a bit from 2010 until 2021 when it elected a republican governor in Glenn yunin since then Virginia has taken a slight shift to the right Republicans can definitely get competitive in Virginia in the coming years but as of right now with Harris having replaced Biden at the top of the democratic ticket she has an 85% chance at holding onto a state Biden carried by a double digit margin four years ago and finally we have a New Hampshire another state that was very close in 2016 in fact it was the second closest state in the entire country Clinton won the Granite State by less than half a percentage Point only Michigan was more competitive today kamla Harris has an 81% chance that's basically a four and five chance at holding on to the state which Bing carried by 7 points four years ago so New Hampshire is going to be the final likely Blue State on our map we also have the second district of Nebraska where the odds for kamla Harris lie in the 70% range and so with the solid and likely States filled in for both candidates Harris and Trump are neck and neck Harris at 226 Trump at 218 we're now going to get into the lean States states where either candidate has between a 55 to a 75% chance at winning so these states are going to be among the most competitive although there is a chance that they actually go to the other candidate although it is still unlikely and so we're going to start off with the two lean Trump States we have the second district of Maine which I'm just going to get out of way but we also have North Carolina and Georgia North Carolina is a state Democrats have only W one since 1976 and that was Barack Obama back in 2008 when he defeated John McCain by a 0.3% margin today Donald Trump has a 61% chance at holding on to a state he won in both 2016 and 2020 in fact four years ago every single poll in the entire polling average throughout the entire year of 2020 showed Joe Biden on track to flip the Tar Hill State the Democrats were in a much better position last time we had the economy not really in a good spot because of the pandemic and of course covid-19 in general and of course also fatigue with Republicans being in power for four years at that point they no longer have that Advantage now it's Democrats that are in power and Democrats that are unpopular and that is why Trump is the clear favorite here in North Carolina the state is going to be lean Republican we also have Georgia a state that Joe Biden actually won four years ago but this was the closest state of the 2020 election decided by a 0.24% margin and the issue for Harris here is that Biden was a much stronger nominee in 2020 than the vice president is today and if Biden was able to win Georgia by that narrow of a margin it won't take too much for Trump to win it back I mean just the fact that Biden is no longer the nominee and Harris has replaced him that is more than enough for Trump to take back the peach state he has a 62% chance at winning the former president is on track to winning Georgia for a second time it's going to be the final lean State for the former president as for Harris she has two lean States as well we're going to begin in the Wolverine state of Michigan where the vice president has a 62% chance at winning it is very close it really could go both ways because you cannot underestimate Donald Trump in the midwest just look at the map in 2012 every single state here is blue except for Indiana fast forward four years Trump flips Iowa Ohio Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin Minnesota is barely a blue state only Illinois is even remotely within the solid Democratic range and so when considering Trump's impact here he has taken the Rust Belt from being very much in the center to now favoring Republicans on a fundamental level as it continues to shift to the right now KL Harris is pulling well in Michigan if there's any key Battleground state that she wins and by key Battlegrounds in Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania along with Nevada Arizona North Carolina and Georgia if there's any of these states that she wins first it's probably going to be Michigan which has voted to the left of all of these other states in every election since the Obama era and So currently the Democratic party has a 62% chance at holding on to a state in fact at one point their odds went down to just 37 and so Harris has made an improvement off of Biden's performance but we'll have to see if she can actually deliver Michigan is going to be lean blue as of right now based on the betting markets we also have Wisconsin and a big reason why Democrats are favored right now is because people think that Tim Walls being the governor of Minnesota and Wisconsin being the neighbor of Minnesota that's somehow going to correlate to a significant enough uptick in support for Harris there for her to win the state Wisconsin generally is the most most conservative out of the three blue wall states of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania and so right now Harris is the very slight favorite with a 57% chance at winning but honestly I would say Trump is still the favorite candidate here I mean in 2016 Trump did better in Wisconsin than Biden in 2020 even when he very narrowly flipped the state back and so on our map it's going to be lean blue but we're probably going to see this state shift to the right on the markets in the coming weeks and so just since the time that I started recording this video the markets have changed quite a bit poly Market updates in real time and Arizona has moved up to becoming a lean Republican state Donald Trump has a 55% chance at winning a state that he won in 2016 by nearly four points lost very nearly in 2020 it was the second closest state in the country and just like Georgia it is going to vote for Donald Trump simply because Joe Biden won it by such a narrow margin in such a good year for the Democratic party and so Arizona right now Trump is the favorite 55 to 46 and so that will make it a another lean Republican state in favor of Donald Trump and so we're now left with two states just Nevada and Pennsylvania these are going to be the Tilt States and they will decide the election in these two states either candidate has a 55% chance at winning or less and so in Arizona with this filled in we have 262 to 251 the election is neck and neck and both candidates need to win at least Pennsylvania if they want to get to 270 and so we're going to start off in Nevada where Donald Trump has a 53% chance at winning now what you have to keep in mind is that this is a state that Trump has never won before he lost it by the same margin of 2.4% in both 2016 and 2020 but today he is the favorite to win a state Republicans haven't won since 2004 it's six electoral votes are not going to single-handedly decide the election but if Trump can win Nevada it's a very good side that he'll do well in the other regions of the Sun Belt and potentially even the Midwest and now the final State on this map 19 electoral votes even if Trump wins all of the compe head the states in the Sun Belt he still needs Pennsylvania KLA Harris has to win all of the states in the Upper Midwest if she wants to have any shot at getting to 270 but as of right now Donald Trump is the slight favorite in the Keystone State he has a 51% chance at winning his odds have been going back and forth with Harris in terms of who's leading but as of right now Pennsylvania is a red State and generally if Pennsylvania goes red Wisconsin will as well it's going to be tilt red on our map as of this point and so Donald Trump is on track to win 287 electoral votes to KLA Harris's 251 and so Paulie Marcus forecast gives Trump a very slight Edge but considering how people almost always underestimate Trump I would say he is in a pretty strong position to win back the White House in just 70 days thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below