🔥The 2024 Election MaP BaseD On Betting Odds From ALL 50 STATES! #trump #election #trending #short

who will win the 2024 election history is about to be made is Trump making a comeback this election could reshape America America's future could change with this election are you ready this election might have the most controversial outcome in history brace yourself for surprises is there a secret game being played in this election how will this election shape America's future the answers might shock you with the election in just two months paully Market's 2024 election forecast gives Trump a 53% chance at winning to just 46 for kamla Harris and today we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on the individual betting markets from every single state we'll Begin by filling in the solid States for both candidates these are states where Harris and Trump have a 95% chance at winning or more and so I'm going to start off with the safe States for the vice president we have Washington Oregon and California all the West Coast is going to be solid blue now this is in terms of her odds of winning she is very likely to win the states in terms of her margin of the vote she might win them by less than 15 points but in terms of her odds Victory they really are very high these are states that have voted Democratic for four decades we also have Hawaii Colorado Illinois almost all of the Northeast with New York Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island New Jersey Delaware Maryland the District of Colombia and the first district of Maine while for Trump he's going to win in quite a few States as well basically all the states he's won by solid margins in 2016 and 2020 he's going to easily win Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota all Nebraska except the second district Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia Indiana and South North Carolina giving him 122 electoral votes we're now going to move on to filling in the likely States states where either candidate has between a 75 to a 95% chance at winning now these states are still going to heavily favor one candidate or the other but they could vote the other way big surprises have happened before and they can happen again and so we're going to begin up in Minnesota this is Governor Tim Wall's home state if walls is on Harris's running mate Minnesota would be at least a lean State probably even tilt if Joe Biden hadn't dropped out Democrats would have lost Minnesota a state they haven't lost since 1972 but today KLA Harris with the governor as her running mate she has a 93% chance at winning in fact at one point odds for Joe Biden went as low as 57 56 even pretty abysmal for a democrat in such a blue States so Minnesota is going to be likely for Harris on our map but it's definitely one to watch considering Donald Trump almost won the state in 2016 when when he lost it by just 1.5% we also have New Mexico five electoral votes a state that went to Biden by a double digit margin four years ago now Harris is not going to win that by that margin she's probably going to win by seven points at most it's going to be more competitive but she is still the favorite KLA Harris has a 91% chance at winning moving on to Maine in the Northeast we have a state that barely went to Hillary Clinton in 2016 she won it by less than three points Joe Biden did do much better four years ago winning it by nearly 10 and today KLA Harris is on track to win by somewhere in the middle of that range probably four to six points she has a 86% chance at carrying Maine this November so the state of Maine as a whole is going to be likely blue we also have neighboring New Hampshire this is another state where kamla Harris leads but it still could go the other way Donald Trump did very well in 2016 he lost to Hillary Clinton in the granite state by less than half a percentage point and today KLA Harris has just an 83% chance at winning which means there is a one in six chance that Trump will actually come out on top here and a one in six chance is not insignificant at all KLA Harris was just recently campaigning in New Hampshire really signaling her weakness in the state and the final likely Blue State on this map is Virginia 13 electoral votes a state that went to Biden by 10 points in the last election a state he probably would have lost if he had stayed in the race Donald Trump actually took the the lead in the polling before Joe Biden dropped out but today KLA Harris is doing much better she's an 86% chance at winning but this is not at all a state Trump needs to win the fact that this state is even remotely competitive is a very bad sign for the Democratic party but they're still the favorites nonetheless and will win its 13 electoral votes if things go as expected before I continue only 16% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below moving on now to the likely Trump States we have the second district of Maine and I forgot earlier buta Harris is slightly favored in the second district of Nebraska but we do have five remaining likely red States on this map we'll begin in Iowa where Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite it's nearly a solid Blue State he has a 94% chance at winning and he really has transform formed Iowa a state that voted for Obama just 12 years ago then Trump shifted the state 15 points to the right in 2016 and won it by nearly double digit margin he won it by eight points in 2020 if you were wondering and looking at the odds it's basically safe red but at this point for our map it's going to be likely Republican but I do expect his chances to only go up from here we also have Iowa the odds are almost identical Trump has a 93% chance at winning and you see basically the same progression 2012 it was blue and then 2016 it voted for Trump by a likely margin and the Republican governors of both Iowa and Ohio reelected by a solid 20o margin in 2022 these states are no longer in play they were very close in the early 2000s that is no longer the case both of them are going to vote Republican for decades to come we also have Alaska where Trump's odds said at 92% still very high but it's surprising to see that the former president is doing better in Iowa Ohio than Alaska in Alaska's entire history as a state it only voted blue once in 1964 for Lynden B Johnson every other time since Alaska gained statehood it has voted Republican and so there's no doubt Trump is going to win it but his odds are just slightly lower in Alaska than in two other states that have only recently joined the Republican column we also have the state of Texas another state that has a very long history of going Republican the last time a Democrat won it was Jimmy Carter in 1976 and today Trump has an 89% chance at winning there's no doubt he is going to win Texas in 2020 there was some talk that maybe Biden could pull off a victory here but in the end it wasn't really that close Trump still won by nearly six points this time he's probably going to win by a double digit margin the Lone Star State is also going to be likely red the second largest state in terms of electoral votes we also have Florida which has the third largest at 30 electoral votes the state is no longer competitive it used to be the ultimate Battleground the most important state in the country just because of how competitive it was I mean just look at the 2012 map Florida was the only tilt State and then in 2016 it was once again tilt in favor of Donald Trump and so looking at the odds for Trump today it's really surprising to see that he has an 86% chance at winning he is the undoubted favorite to win the Sunshine State for a third time he won it by an even larger margin in 2020 compared to 2016 and he's probably going to improve Mo off of his margin 4 years ago once again this November winning the state by somewhere around 7 to 10 points Florida is going to be the last likely State on this map and so we're now left with the seven key Battleground States these are the seven states that are talked about the very most and with all the other states filled in Donald Trump has 219 electoral votes KLA Harris at 226 basically a dead heat before we get to these ultra competitive Battlegrounds fortunately for Trump though he has a prettyy strong grip on quite a few of them especially the competitive states in the Sun Belt I mean Arizona Georgia and North Carolina since 1996 they've only voted for a Democrat once for North Carolina that was in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama while for Georgia and Arizona it was for Joe Biden in 2020 and so the only times that these states have gone to a Democrat were under very good circumstances first in 2008 when George W Bush was basically the most unpopular president in recorded history and then in 2020 Donald Trump wasn't doing too well because of the economy and basically it was the year of covid before the election that costed Trump his second term now today that is not at all what is happening Trump is in a much better position than he was in four years ago now Democrats are in power and with inflation and the economy really not doing that great it is Joe Biden and K Harris that are going to be blamed for the issues and so these three swing States Trump has a significant advantage in just because of their Republican history in 2016 Trump won North Carolina by nearly four points Georgia by five and Arizona by nearly four considering just how narrow Biden's margins in Georgia and Arizona were it is pretty unlikely that Harris is going to win them while North Carolina Biden couldn't even win four years ago when basically every single poll said he was and so coming back to the map we're going to fill in North Carolina for 16 electoral votes this is a pretty important state if Trump loses North Carolina he is not going to win but luckily for him he has a 63% chance of winning the taril state for a third time in a row the odds for him have been going up over the last month if you look at where it was just a month ago he was at 60 now he's at 63 the odds have been pretty consistent Trump has always been the favorite in the Tar Hill State and so North Carolina is going to be the first lean Red State on the map and lean states are characterized by odds between 55 to 75% in Arizona Trum tr's odds are just slightly lower at 62% and look at the big shift here I mean just a few weeks ago Trump had a 50% chance at winning in fact it was basically neck and neck between Harris and Trump now Trump is the clear favorite his odds are higher than what they were at the end of June right before the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump and so Arizona is a state where the numbers have gotten a lot better for the former president it's a state where Republicans aren't doing well with the senate race with Carrie Lake as the nominee but on the presidential level Trump is on track to win there's no doubt about that Arizona is going to be lean Republican as well and in Georgia the former president has a 60% chance at winning his odds here have also improved over the last month pretty close to where he was right before that disastrous debate that ultimately pushed Joe Biden out of the presidential race and so all three of these Sunbelt States will get Donald Trump to 262 elect cor which means all he needs is just one out of the remaining Russ spelt states that will be enough for him to clinch the presidency for a second time but before I move up there we're going to fill in Nevada first which hasn't voted a republican since 2004 when George W bush won his reelection today though things are a little different Trump lost Nevada by 2.4% to both Clinton and Biden however this does signal the shift to the right the state has taken in the last few years Joe Biden improved basically everywhere else across the country but in Nevada this was one of the few states where he actually didn't and in terms of the state's electorate it is much more in favor of the GOP now than it was 4 and8 years ago in 2022 Nevada elected a republican Governor Joe Lombardo in favor of the incoming Democrat Steve cisac according to the betting markets Trump has a 53% chance at winning the state which he has never won before Nevada is going to be the only tilt State on our six electoral votes going in favor of the former president this puts him just two away from the presidency and now we're finally going to finish off the map with the three blue wall States and they're called the blue wall because from 1992 all the way until 2016 they voted for the Democratic nominee in every single election but eight years ago Trump managed to win every single one of them it was a big surprise nobody thought these states were even in play but he pulled out the Victory and he won 306 electoral votes and then in 2020 Joe Biden did win he had to win all three of these states back by narrow margins and in 2024 the election is going to converge here both campaigns have to win states in the midwest KL Harris needs to win all three of them which is going to be very very difficult KLA Harris is not Joe Biden Joe Biden was doing much better in midwestern polls than Harris is right now while Donald Trump can win any one of them even if it's just Wisconsin which has the least electoral votes he is still going to get over 270 and so we're going to begin in Wisconsin where KLA Harris has a 56% chance of winning it's basically a tilt State it's barely made it into the lean Democratic category it's a state that only favors KLA Harris because she chose Tim Wells to be her running mate and of course Wisconsin is neighboring Minnesota but honestly walls isn't going to have too much of an impact outside of his home state and so on our map it is going to be lean blue but I still do believe pretty strongly that Trump is going to win this state in the very end Wisconsin is generally the most conservative out of the three it was the reddest in 2020 as well as in 2016 in neighboring Michigan Harris's odds are the exact same at 56% yes she is still slightly the favorite but her odds have come crashing down in the last few weeks in fact she had a two in three chance at winning just three weeks ago now she is barely the favorite 56% is probably going to drop even lower the next time we take a look at the betting markets honestly the next time we do a video like this both Wisconsin and Michigan are probably going to be R by that point but for now they're barely going to be lean States they honestly should be KT States they're right above that 55% threshold but we'll keep you guys updated on how these odds change and so we're now left with just the Keystone State of Pennsylvania Joe Biden had an advantage here he was born in Pennsylvania but now Democrats have lost that and it's unfortunate for them because this is by far the most important state on the entire map whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the election KLA Harris could win Nevada and still lose the election if she can't win Pennsylvania she could also even win Arizona but without Pennsylvania she is not going to get to 270 Pennsylvania is make or break for the Harris campaign but bad news for her right now Donald Trump has a 55% chance at winning his odds have gone up over the last few weeks in fact they were at just 42% when Harris first entered the race her odds went up quite a bit at the very beginning but now Trump is starting to resurface again and so the state is going to be lean in favor of the GOP and so according to the betting markets Trump is on track to win with 287 electoral votes KLA Harris at just 251 Trump is gaining in virtually every single Battleground State and in terms of the election as a whole the former president according to poly markets 2024 election forecast has a 53% chance at winning His Highest since July thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this you're watching the legal breakdown Glenn we finally got the news that we were waiting for from Judge chuin as it relates to the deadlines that she promised that she would bring forward now we got those dates and they come extremely close to the election so she held true to her claim that she wasn't going to allow the election to interfere with these Court proceedings so can you talk about the deadlines that she just passed down yeah Brian I try not to do hyperbole but this is a big effing deal why do I say that because there's a lot of evidence out there about Donald Trump's crimes his conduct the acts he undertook on and around January 6th to try to steal the presidential election a lot of evidence that was heard by the grand jury that was presented to them by Republican Witnesses Jack Smith has all that evidence available to him and that evidence Bears directly on Donald Trump's suitability or unsuitability to again be president of the United States it's all been hidden from the voters until now so today I was in court earlier today when the prosecutors said to judge chuin um we are prepared to disclose it all all of this evidence that is thus far unrevealed publicly um and we're prepared to disclose it by September 26th why so you judge chuin can perform the exact review and litigation that the Supreme Court told you to perform go through all of Donald Trump's crimes his conduct his acts and litigate whether each one represents an official presidential act such that he's immune from prosecution or not an unofficial act a private act the act of a candidate yeah and boy um Donald Trump's lawyers fought tooth and nail trying to convince judge chuin do not do not let the prosecution disclose any of it well true to her word we got her order this evening and here is the only line in this two-page order that really matters the government the prosecutors shall file an opening brief with all of that evidence on presidential immunity by September 26 2024 so Brian in just three weeks a little less than that now we the people are going to see tons and tons of information and evidence about Donald Trump's crimes on and around January that have not been revealed publicly yet and frankly I think the American voters deserve to see it rather than keep it hidden keep it under wraps until after the election and then spring it on the American people that doesn't make a lot of sense for the health and viability of our democracy as you say she didn't do this she didn't set this timetable because it had anything to do with the election but she refused to push this until after the election for that purpose which is what Donald Trump's lawyers asked her to do Glenn was this in some way a little bit of a backfire for those members of the US Supreme Court who were obviously perpetuating these bogus ideas in deference to Donald Trump because and and I asked that because you know clearly they did this to help Donald Trump in the upcoming election to help him in the event that he does become president and yet now by virtue of being forced to litigate these issues in broad daylight with this with this mini trial that that's going to happen before the election because we have to figure out after all which of these issues falls under the presidential immunity umbrella and which doesn't fall under the presidential immunity umbrella does this seem like a little bit of a backfire for those Supreme Court Justices who clearly did this to try and help Donald Trump Which is far from what's happening right now which is now all the all of this stuff is going to be aired out for the American people to see to the extent the goal of folks like justice Thomas And Justice Alito uh the goal was to help Donald Trump you're You're darn right this is a backfire and frankly it is a similar backfire to when they decided ruled that Donald Trump even though he's an adjudicated insurrectionist can stay on the ballot contrary to the 14th Amendment what did that do well it left Donald Trump on the ballot rather than removing him many many months ago and giving the Republicans an opportunity to perhaps put up a relatively untarnished candidate so I do like to think that every nefarious Act of the Supreme Court ends up somehow working against their goal to help protect Donald Trump now Glenn uh like we had mentioned before a lot of these uh hearings now are going to happen within weeks of the actual election we have special counsel Jack Smith has to file his opening brief on September 26 we have Trump filing his response to that opening brief on October 17th Smith is filing his reply brief on October 29th so now we are just days before the election is there any way for this schedule to be appealed in any way or is this the schedule and there's nothing that Donald Trump can do about it that's exactly the right question what obstacles can Donald Trump try to throw up in front of this information being made available to the public beginning on September 26 here's what I'll say there is no viable procedural way that Donald Trump can take what is a run-ofthe-mill scheduling decision by a trial court judge and bubble it all the way up to the Supreme Court to try to employ their assistance again now when I say there is no legitimate viable procedural mechanism will he file something anyway of course he will will the Supreme Court reach down and try to help him yet again even though the law and the procedures don't give them a a lawful opportunity to do it you know my answer has got to be I sure as hell hope not but with this supreme court I will never rule out them doing something that at a minimum is unorthodox and at a maximum is unconstitutional to try to help their man Donald Trump all of that said Brian I don't think a run-of-the-mill scheduling ruling by a judge can possibly make it all the way up to the Supreme Court and put a stop to this schedule order okay well famous last words you have you have Clarence Thomas out there you know saying hold hold my beer basically uh okay so with that said I do have more of a political question for you here how damaging do you think that this will be in the leadup to the election given that this type of mini trial is going to be put on full display for the American people to see you know it probably will not move Donald Trump's hardcore base of you know 20% of the American population I'm making that number yeah I'm making that number I don't know if it's 20 or 25 but you're right nothing will but here's what it will do once these materials are revealed publicly and they're going to be voluminous and they're probably going to be really damaging because we're going to learn things about what those Republican Witnesses said about Donald Trump behind closed doors and the grand jury under oath stuff we don't know um that I have to believe we'll be on an endless news Loop for days and weeks to come um and that is probably going to continue up through the election given the briefing schedule as you just set out that judge chuin has put in place and interestingly when I read this two-page order I was looking to see if judge chuin said another hearing an in court hearing like we had today and she hasn't so all we're going to see is this evidence tumbling out into the Public Square with the media picking it up and Blasting it out as well they should should let's get the real truthful accurate reliable evidence of Donald Trump's crimes because goodness knows Donald Trump is forever throwing in the mix I apologize there but that's what he's doing so now it's going to be met with some actual testimony that was presented to the grand jury under oath by Republican Witnesses um I I have to believe that is going to be persuasive to some people who are still somehow in the middle or ruminating about who to vote vote for this cannot possibly be helpful to Donald Trump's cause or his candidacy and let's finish off with this and the reason I have to ask this question is because we have seen the way in which Donald Trump can manipulate and distort what happens in the courtroom to what extent is what happens in judge shutkin courtroom going to be reported by people and to what extent can it be uh Twisted into knots by Donald Trump because of because of pro a prosecutorial team that opts not to say anything yeah what a great point and and let me quote Donald Trump's lawyer John Loro to you in answering that question how can they twist it he actually said and I wrote it down though I don't have my notes in front of me he said judge if you go with the prosecution's proposal to let this information be revealed on September 26th prior to the election it will be the most unfair thing any federal judge has ever done now yes that sounded like an you know unhinged 2 a. Donald Trump social media post it didn't sound like a a responsible lawyer but that's what he said so you can already hear the attacks coming that what judge chuin just did was what election interference by allowing truthful accurate sworn testimony and evidence come before the American people before the election they twist and contort and lie about everything again I think they only continue to fool the gullible Donald Trump's core supporters and I think the rest of the public will accept it for what it is and will probably be moved and they will be moving away from Donald Trump's candidacy I suspect and and knowing that Donald Trump is going to distort whatever happens in that courtroom with with their bogus claims of election interference do you think that there's any world in which Jack Smith and his prosecutorial team and the doj suspend their rule of not discussing or not commenting on any ongoing prosecution any ongoing investigation and actually come out to rebut what will inevitably be a delu of disinformation from the Trump team no they absolutely will not I know enough about career prosecutors particularly ones like Jack Smith and the prosecutors he has populated his team with some of whom I I've worked with over the years they will not depart from the practice of not commenting publicly on a Case even to correct the endless stream of lies that come from Donald Trump and his loyalists his flunkies his lackies and his mouthpieces they're going to let the briefs that they file in this case do the talking and and all of that by the way underscores the importance of the work that that you for example are going to do because I know that you'll be in the courtroom and so uh we look forward to getting your firsthand account of what happens in the courtroom uh with that said then for those who are watching right now if you want to follow along as this case continues to play out and this will be a very important upcoming few weeks in this DC trial please make sure to subscribe the links to both of our channels right here on the screen I'm Brian Tyler Cohen and I'm Glenn kersner you're watching the legal [Music] breakdown tonight Harris's momentum a new CNN poll showing Harris picking up support in some very important States swing States let's just show you what we're looking at Harris is ahead of trump in the key blue wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin in Arizona though Trump is in the lead Georgia and Nevada are both within the margin of error although Harris is technically up a point in each in Pennsylvania that is a dead heat right now now we're going to have a lot more on all of these numbers with John King in just a moment a deep dive on them at the wall you know it comes though as vice president KL Harris is now trying to talk more about policy and to Define herself as different than Biden for the first time announcing some differences from the president on taxes in New Hampshire today Harris announcing she would tax investment income at a lower rate than President Biden has proposed if you earn a million dollars a year or more the tax rate on your long-term capital gains will be 28% under my plan because we know when the government encourages investment it leads to broad-based economic growth and it creates jobs which makes our economy [Applause] stronger to be clear she would increase taxes by a lot less than Biden on capital gains but still increase them more from where they are now former president Trump firing off nearly a dozen online videos around the time that Harris was speaking about her economic policies one after the other he was talking about the Border communism crime Biden and also the economy Trump cash versus Camala crash we're going to have a crash like 1929 if she gets in it will not be pretty that line of attack uh actually is reminiscent in fact almost identical to what Trump was warning about the last time around if Biden wins and you're going to have a stock market crash the equivalent of 1928 and 1929 of course that has not happened despite Trump's prediction it is clear though that both of sides know that the economy is key in the election right it is the focus for voters more than anything else so John King now at the magic wall as promised so John as you look at it right now with all the latest you know polling data all that you've got where and what are the paths right now to 270 tonight Aaron strap in our new polling shows yes some Harris momentum but the big headline is this is a very very very very I could add a few more very close races let's just look at the data and what it tells us this is where we are right now the yellow states are our tossup states they include North Carolina we did not poll in North Carolina this time I'm going to lean it red Democrats will get mad at me but I'm going to lean that one red until I see data that proves otherwise because it has gone red in every election since 2008 when Obama won it was Republican before that here's our new polling Harris ahead in Wisconsin outside the margin Harris ahead in Michigan just outside the margin that gets her to 250 right Donald Trump ahead in Arizona outside the margin that let me make make that red that would move him up to 246 pretty close right and then you mentioned these other states are too close to call Pennsylvania a genuine tie let's just say Harris is exact is really plus one in Georgia and plus one in Nevada this is just one poll this is a hypothetical here that alone though if she could held that we're get it to 272 and she could win the presidency without Pennsylvania but again she's plus one in the polling it's just as plausible and we've seen other data that Donald Trump could win Georgia and Donald Trump could win Nevada as well that would get him to 268 so what happens then you're looking at Pennsylvania right let's assume Harris EES it out it's a tie right now if Trump want it he'd be president United States if Harris want it under this scenario and again it's a scenario that gets you to 269 268 and it all comes down to Nebraska's second congressional district either a tie or it puts Harris over the top at 270 I'm not saying that's going to happen what I'm saying is if you look at this data here's where we start today those polls tell us Aaron look we are eight weeks and six days away from Counting votes it's competitive 269 to 268 um that's a nightmare scenario I think for so many uh in this country no matter which which which side of the political Spectrum you may be on um but you know John when I was just mentioning right before you came on talking about the economy which both Harris and Trump were focused on today it is the number one issue and Trump still has at least from the polling you're looking at he still has the edge there right this is Trump's biggest Advantage which is why he wants to hold it and why you see the vice president out doing economic speeches her ads are also tilting now heavily toward the economy in Arizona Trump's up five overall voters view him as the better candidate by 15 points on the economy in Georgia where Harris is tied maybe plus one Trump has a slider Advent so you can see the trend here in places where Harris is competitive or ahead Trump's numbers are lowers Nevada is the outlier it got thrown this economy got thrown in the trash during Co but the key for Harris is to bring this Trump Advantage down where she's winning in Wisconsin she's up six in the state Trump only plus two on the economy this is her biggest challenge try to if she can't catch Trump on the economy at least make him plus two or plus4 not Plus 816 or more the economy right now is Trump's biggest Advantage by far all right well now you go down deep in the polling today there were some warning signs for Harris and specific vulnerability with with key voting groups what are they so let's look first the gender gap gets talked about a lot let's look at Women Voters if you look at these numbers Harris is essentially tracking Biden a little better in some places she would probably like to improve these numbers but when it comes to women look at Harris now and Biden 2020 and they're relatively good right there she would like to improve them obviously because she's struggling one reason you want to improve him is because she is struggling a bit among men voters male voters especially when you look out in the western states in 2020 Trump won them by two points in Arizona he's up 14 in 2020 12 and 10 that's about the same but if you if you look at Nevada eight plus 18 plus 5 so this is a problem for the vice president without a doubt she needs to try to improve her standing among male voters and again you can trace a lot of that back to the economy and people just don't know a lot about her here's one other thing quickly I want to show you though Hispanic voters are critical in both Arizona and Nevada and look at this Biden won by 24 points Harris only by six in Arizona right now Biden won in Nevada by 26 Harris by 20 smaller subset of Voters here so the margin of error is a little higher so this might not be as bad as it looks but it's still bad and one of the places the vice president has to do some improvement among men among Latinos most of all that would help itself on the economy and what about independence and moderates so this is fascinating to me and this just raises the stakes for the debate outside the chart here watch this when you bring it up Independence and moderates this this is in just independent voters but the trend lines are similar with moderates look at how Trump is now winning in Arizona in Georgia in Michigan among Independents right Biden won all of these Battleground States among Independents back in 2020 this is an area the vice president needs to improve her standing voters in the middle these are people who self-identify as Independents you see very similar numbers among people who self-identify as moderates she's struggling in the middle she is viewed as more liberal than moderate Joe Biden and so she's struggling a bit in the middle but here's the opportunity a lot of people don't know a lot about the vice president which is why she's out there giving these speeches right look at this the percentage of Voters in each of these Battleground States who say they might change their mind it's in the teens 11% in Georgia tends to be in the low to mid teens and all these other Battleground States but look at the Independence 24% 23% 27% 23% 29% they are open to changing their mind if KLA Harris can prove herself on the economy and on leadership these are the independent numbers they're very similar among moderates we don't talk much more about the in this polarized Climate about the middle of the electorate there is room for her to grow in the middle if she makes her case yes when you look at numbers of 268 269 at the end of the day right any tiny margin of these groups matters so much all right absolutely John thank you so much for all of that so um let's go now to um Scott Jennings Kate bingfield so Kate Harris is up in Wisconsin and Michigan let's just start with that where John started um and and these are massive turnarounds over the past weeks from Biden and now outside the margin of air do you feel great about this I feel good I feel encouraged I wouldn't say I feel great because I think the totality of the numbers show that this is still and is going to be an incredibly Incredibly Close race we just heard John go through it I think what the numbers today show is that KLA Harris has more Pathways more conceivable Pathways to 270 uh than Trump does or at least than Trump felt like he did six weeks ago when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket I think there's no question his path has narrowed so I think these numbers should give Democrats they should be heartened I think it's showing that she uh you know continues to build strength in the Coalition that she needs to win and as John was just saying that she has Room to Grow Trump I think probably has a little bit less room to grow in part because he is so well defined uh so you know I think it it is encouraging I don't think by any stretch the Democrats should view this as a slam dunk though there is a long way to go in this race and it's clearly very very close I mean it's Scott you know obviously a few weeks ago pretty much all those swing States Trump thought he had it locked up he was talking about New Hampshire right so it is it is um you know a small Solace to say oh well she's only up 1% Georgia you know we can still do that I mean it's still got to be pretty Grim to look at these for uh Trump's team isn't it I don't know I mean uh he was underestimated badly in several of these states by a lot of polling in 2016 and 2020 including in some CNN polling I might add I agree with Kate I it's an Inc Incredibly Close race either of these candidates could win any of these states were talking about and I also agree with John that the ticket to victory for the middle and for some of these uh male voters that they're competing for is really to talk about the economy I had to chuckle a little bit today listening to her talk about her tax policy I mean she's like see Joe Biden's tax policy is only going to kill you as much as you know Jason Vorhees but I'm more like Mike Meers see isn't that better no it's not better they're both scary as hell and either way you're going to be dead and so I I think she's gonna have to come up with something a little better than I'm gonna raise your taxes a little less than Joe Biden is if she wants to do economic on the capital gain specifically on the main tax policy there at least as of has been no difference between the two Kate let me just ask you though you know one thing that John mentioned there when we're talking about these different voting groups and Scott just brought up men but I want to ask about Independents and moderates right those Independents that he was looking at in swing States 25 to 30% of them are open to changing their mind at this point all right do this is this something that worries you or is this something that actually makes you feel good because you are supporting the candidate about whom people know less well think it certainly shows that she has more room to grow and so I think that as she is continuing to Define herself out on the campaign Trail also we've now passed Labor Day so you have voters really starting to tune in in a way that uh you know historically they don't pre- Labor Day so this is really a moment for her to make her case and she also has Donald Trump out there her opponent uh you know continuing to try to throw everything at the wall against her to see what sticks he's not really making a coherent and cohesive uh argument against her and uh he's continuing to use some of these same you know tired ugly personal attacks which we know that moderate and independent voters are tired of they rejected it in 2020 and we've seen in all of the polling since this race started to uh to come together about a year ago when it was going to be Trump versus Biden we saw that people said we don't want this rematch we don't want more of this so they're getting more of the same from Trump they're hearing something new and different from KLA Harris that they're excited about in lie of a previously scheduled presidential debate Donald Trump did a propaganda Town Hall last night night with Shan Hannity and he didn't remember who he is running against I it just keeps happening at what point can we say it's not a joke Trump certainly not speaking to a single new voter that he doesn't already have in this thing and he repeatedly forgets who he is running against listen to this I can't imagine New Hampshire voting for him anybody in New Hampshire cuz they're watching right now but anybody in New Hampshire that votes for Biden and and camela I really he glitched out he forgot who he was running against again he forgets who he's running against he forgets who's President he doesn't know what is going on and if you think that moment was a concern well there was a deranged and disastrously diabolical moment where Trump in an authoritarian Hayes tells the audience you have no choice but you have to vote for me even if you do not like me not going to allow you can't take the chance you have no choice you've got to vote for me I you've got to vote for me even even if you don't like me you know it's it's no but even if you don't like me you can sit there I can't stand guy but there's no way I'm going to vote for her no you well you know what people do have choices and certainly tens of millions at minimum are planning to make a different choice but this is a terrified terrified Donald Trump at another point during this Gong Show Town Hall apparently a mosquito got into the room really distracted Trump and then he started ranting about bugs the debate and I hate mosquitoes I'm surprised I didn't think we had we don't like those mosquitoes running around we want nothing to do with them but and we want nothing to do with bad politicians that hate our country too you want to know the Trump's train of thought completely derailed off the tracks altogether uh As Trump has done before he argued that his knowledge of nuclear programs is bolstered by the fact that his uncle was at MIT and I don't know about you but just because you once had an uncle who was a surgeon I'm not letting you take a scalpel to me and I think the same thing probably applies here upgraded our entire program and you know the one program I hated to upgrade hated it was the nuclear program and I understand it maybe better than anybody my uncle was at MIT a professor the longest serving professor in the history of MIT very small SM guy we have a smart family it's nice people are clapping that Trump's uncle had a job I mean how weird is this a smart family but I knew I understood nuclear for a long time the power of nuclear weapons you need a president that's not going to be taking you into war we won't have World War II when I'm elected but right you can trust that Trump will best handle nuclear proliferation because his uncle uh went to MIT taught at MIT who the hell knows and you know thinking back to our interview earlier in the show today with cult expert Dr Steph Hassen the crowd is playing their role they clap when they are supposed to and expected to by the cult leader even if it makes no sense why would you clap when Trump says his uncle was smart why is that even something to clap for the crowd recognizes it as an Applause line and they do it in the the latest instance of I know you are but what am I uh Trump says Tim Walls is weird super original huh really really original stuff uh sorry this is the here's the right there's something there's something weird with that guy he's a weird guy J how creative huh is not weird he's a solid rock I happen to be a very Solid Rock we're not weird we're other things perhaps but we're not weird nuh-uh we're not weird you guys are actually the weird ones really convincing stuff really motivating to voters to get out and vote for Trump I'm sure and then finally after confusing himself multiple times about who he's running against in this campaign Trump complains that Joe Biden decided to step aside he doesn't like it he got 14 million votes and they threw him out they said we want you out and he wasn't going to win I don't think I mean I don't think he was going to win but we did good debate we had a good debate and it was a fair debate and he was down like 18 or 19 points after the debate and okay so that's very much not true he was not down to 18 points after the debate I hate mosquitoes I'm surprised I didn't think we had we don't so here's the mosquito portion those mosquitoes running around we want nothing to do with them but and we want nothing to do with bad politicians that hate our country too you want to know the but he had they went to him and they said we want you out you're not going to win and it was really a coup when you think about it yeah it kind of wasn't really a coup but the very interesting part of this is that I do think Trump is correctly assessing one aspect of this much of what took place did come after an assessment from Joe Biden and the people around him that the race isn't looking good and so Joe Biden made a decision that someone like Trump could never and would never make which is you know what instead of staying in in this thing because of personal ego Reon Reasons I'm going to do what is actually best for the party and what he believes is best for the country which is what action can I take that reduces the chance that Trump becomes president if they came to him and they said sir we're crying you're going to lose well then Biden said let's figure out a way to make it less likely that Trump wins and that's getting out and endorsing kamla Harris which is what they've done Trump I mean to to we criticize him lot he is correctly assessed that's the reason that what uh that's the reason that that sort of started the chain of events that led to KLA Harris today being the nominee Trump recognizes it's going to be much tougher to defeat comma Harris than it would have been to defeat Joe Biden and he's Furious this town hall not really doing Trump any favors reaching mostly people who are already either in the tank for Trump or on shows like this this one no chance in hell that they're voting for Trump I don't know that these Town Hall events convince any I want to show you a clip of Donald Trump that went somewhat under the radar this past week that really just exposes how incompetent Donald Trump is this clip is from when he was speaking at the New York economic Club the other day and he was asked a pretty complex policy question and as expected it didn't go well he has no idea what he's talking about so I want to show you this clip but before I do so make sure to subscribe down below it goes a really really long way it helps a lot but let's take a look at that clip shall we so here's the clip and just brace yourself for a bunch of nonsense essentially let's have a listen hi John uh first first let me thank you for your presentation today uh president Trump in the last fiscal year the fiscal deficit under the Biden Administration was a approximately 2 trillion under the policies you've announced the deficit would come down from items such as increased revenues from tariffs as well as eliminating the the tax incentives uh for the green New Deal uh these gains would be mitigated by decreases in revenues from policies such as no tax on tips over overall what do you estimate will be the impact of the fiscal deficit from your policies so first and foremost before we hear Donald Trump's response pretty tough question right that's a pretty specific uh question on fiscal policy on deficit spending things like that things that like KLA Harris or Joe Biden or Tim Walls could speak very eloquently about but Donald Trump is not none of those people he's not Barack Obama so let's hear this bum in Fool's response to this decently uh difficult question well we just hit record highs at numbers that nobody ever thought possible you're right it's over $2 trillion nobody thought that was a number that was I mean you could go back four years nobody thought a number like that would be possible it's crazy it's like it's just horrible actually but uh yeah we're two trillion and I view it as profit and loss to a certain extent a lot of people say oh it's trade you know you have many people say trade deficits don't matter I think they matter a lot I think they matter a lot uh we're going to have tremendous growth this what I'm talking about is all about growth the tax is relatively minor compared to the growth we're going to make our money back on growth we're going to also I mean we're going to grow like nobody's ever grown before I think if this all works out you're going to have the Auto industry come back to America right now China is building two Auto factories in Mexico massive Auto factories and they think they're going to make their cars in Mexico and send them back into the United States with no tax it's not going to happen under this Administration is going to happen and they wanted to do that during my Administration I said if you do it we're going to put a 200% tariff on every car and you'll never be able to see it there will never be one car coming across our border and if I would have let them do it we would have had these two factories well now they're building massive factories more than two and they're going to kill Detroit and the head of the Union the United Auto Workers in Detroit has done a terrible terrible job just a terrible job but we're going to bring tremendous growth back and remember we're also taking in a certain percentage I won't name the percentage today but it'll be a certain tariff percentage which will be higher than people had heard in the past and we will be bringing in billions and billions of dollars which will directly reduce our deficits okay thank you very much good job you've done by the way very good Donald Trump did not respond to the question even a little bit he didn't respond to the question at all he he managed to actually make his situation worse he attacked a union head in the swing state of Michigan in the middle of this speech talking about cars while he was rambling about nothing he never had a chance Donald Trump never had a chance with this difficult question and he just proved how incompetent he is like can anybody can anybody summarize what Donald Trump just said right there I don't think that anybody could do that because he didn't say anything he didn't say anything he didn't answer the question he said nothing of substance and completely dodged the question at hand I imagine that the person who ask the question is sitting there like my God who is this guy who is this guy I I know for a fact that if it were President Obama VP Harris Governor walls President Biden they would have been able to have like an indepth analysis of what this person asked but it's Donald as I said Donald Trump's not any of those people he does not have the skill that those people have instead he has the the the very unique skill of rambling and saying nothing for like a minute to two minutes straight as he just did right there and in addition to this I just want to show you a perfect analysis from someone who was there so I'm sure you saw this clip where a woman by the name of rashma sujani asked Donald Trump a question about child care and what his policy is on child care and what Bill he would advance and he did the same thing he rambled for two minutes straight and said nothing and I think her analysis of this back and forth and of Donald Trump's appearance at this economic Club is just so perfect let's just watch it together with us now is Rush M johie she asked the question yesterday she's a member of the economic Club of New York's Board of Trustees I don't know if you watched the debate in June but I tried three times to get him to answer that question you tried a fourth did you get anything out of that kind of I I may have gotten a little bit more than you did because he did answer the question and what he told us was that child care expenses are no big deal the fact that you're drowning in debt because of them sorry but not sorry and he also told us that no I don't have any ideas or proposal or legislation and it's insulting and it's insulting to parents who are constantly having to choose between funding their daycare and feeding their kids and the thing is is like if you don't have a plan to solve child care you are not fit to be president boom boom if you don't have a a plan for child care you're not fit to be president and I actually like what she said there that you know Anderson CP or excuse me Jake Tapper tried to get Donald Trump to answer the question at the debate all the way back when it was with President Biden he tried three times Donald Trump refused in this qu in this uh back and forth he actually did answer the question he just told every mother out there every father out there every couple out there that sorry you don't get child care sorry yeah I don't have a plan to actually get you child care if Donald Trump if I'm elected pretending to be Trump I will not do anything to help you that's the answer I mean that's the answer that we've been trying to get down to Donald Trump and he sort of said that kind of uh explicitly um but hit it a little bit with a bunch of fluff but that's essentially his message that if you need child care you're a parent you're a mother father whatever it might be sorry you are out of luck and I think that both of these answers you know Donald Trump's recent appearances in the past couple of days just show that he's unqualified to be president like if he can't answer complex questions about the economy or even give a proposal on child care then he can simply not be president of the United States he simply is unqualified to be the most powerful person in the country the most powerful person in the world this is somebody who's running for president to keep himself out of jail and I think we can all agree that that is not a good reason to run for president so let's not do that let's not elect Donald Trump let's focus on the future focus on real policy not this kind of madeup makeshift reality that Donald Trump has crafted in his brain shall we it's I think let's focus on the people let's go with k Harris so I just wanted to show you a couple of these clips that further kind of expose the fact thatum has no idea what he's talking about doesn't have a Scooby doesn't have a Scooby as I'd like to say so anyway I will leave the video there thank you so much for watching I really appreciate it make sure to subscribe down below it goes an incredibly long way also drop a like on the video and comment let me know what you think about all this and as I always say I greatly appreciate you and I hope you have an amazing rest of your day