NEW 2024 Election Map Forecast: Trump Is SKYROCKETING!

with Trump's comeback in full swing a highly respected forecaster currently gives him a 62% chance at winning a second term and today we'll be taking a look at Nate Silver's 2024 electoral map based on his updated forecast Nate silver was the head of 538 for over a decade and is one of the most well-known election forecasters out there looking at how the odds have changed for both of the major party candidates Trump was behind Harris throughout nearly the entirety of the month of August but he has now taken a significant lead and is the clear favorite to win the electoral college so we're going to start off on our map by filling in the safe States these are states that Nate silver gives KLA Harris or Donald Trump a 99% chance or more of winning and so starting off with the safe blue states on the west coast we only have California we also have Illinois and then in the Northeast New York Vermont Massachusetts Maryland the District of Colombia and that will be it this will give her just 128 electoral votes for Donald Trump though we have a significantly longer list of solid States Utah Idaho Wyoming North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia and and Indiana totaling 103 electoral votes we'll now be moving on to filling in the likely States states where either a candidate has between an 80 to a 99% chance at winning so these states will still clearly favor one candidate or the other but they are going to be slightly more competitive than the states we've already filled in starting off for kamla Harris we have Washington and Oregon yes she is going to win these states but the margin is not going to be nearly as large as what we're going to see in California California is going to go to Harris by somewhere around 20 to 25 points while Washington and Oregon will definitely be in the 10 to 20 point range we also have Colorado and New Mexico two states that generally have been shifting to the left over the last two decades just look at the election of 2004 they both went to George W bush but in 20120 Joe Biden won both Colorado and New Mexico by double digit margins now KLA Harris is probably going to do considerably worse she's probably going to win these states by single digigit margins but she is nonetheless the favorite while up in Minnesota this is Governor Tim walls' home state walls has given Harris a considerable boost here if Tim Walls was not the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Minnesota would be significantly more competitive but as of right now KLA Harris has an 84% chance of winning this state a state that no Republican has been able to carry in a presidential election since 19 1972 Minnesota has the longest voting streak of voting for Democrats in presidential elections longer than any other state on this map because it's the only state that Ronald Reagan did not win in his 1984 Landslide victory over Walter male as we continue moving East we also have Connecticut and Rhode Island these two states simply aren't as liberal as neighboring Massachusetts we also have New Jersey and Delaware just fundamentally they are not as left leaning as some of their neighbors down in Virginia we have a state that KL Harris is still slightly favored in no Republican has won the state since George W Bush in 2004 Joe Biden carried Virginia by a double digit morgin in 2020 but just one year later a republican Glenn yunan won the state's governorship and so today kamla Harris barely has an 80% chance at winning her odds said at 82.8 so on her map she is going to be the slight favorite but this is definitely going to be a key St to watch as Joe Biden lost the lead in the polling in Virginia before he dropped out this is a state that can definitely get more competitive in the next two months we also have Hawaii where the Biden administration's handling of the Maui fires has been very unpopular and Hawaii generally is a state that is Shifting to the right in 2016 Hillary Clinton won it by 32 points but four years later in 2020 when Joe Biden shifted the entire rest of the country in favor of the Democrats Hawaii actually voted more in favor of trump than it did in 2016 so Hawaii will also be likely blue and up in Maine we have the state as a whole where kamla Harris has an 85% chance at winning while in the first district her odds are just under 99 so the three electoral votes two from the atlarge vote and one from the first district will all go to the sitting vice president before he continue only 16% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below and so right now it might seem like Harris is doing really well but honestly if you look at this map barely any remaining states are going to go in for her favor so we're now going to fill in the likely Trump State states he has an 80 to a 99% chance at winning and we're going to get the most obvious ones out of the way I mean Montana Mississippi South Carolina and Alaska there's no doubt these states are going to go to the former president for a third time in a row he's probably going to win them all by 15 points or more but on a fundamental level they are slightly less conservative than States like Missouri Wyoming Indiana or West Virginia we do have quite a few more likely States for Trump there beginning in the midwest with Iowa and Ohio two states that Trump first flipped in favor of the GOP eight years ago Iowa he won by nine points Ohio by eight but in 2012 Barack Obama Obama won these states by pretty considerable margin so they really took a huge leap towards the right 8 years ago in 2016 Donald Trump has had a huge impact on the Midwest I mean this was the Midwest in 2012 every single state was blue except for Indiana go back to 2008 every single Midwestern State voted for the Democratic nominee now this was a very good election year for Barack Obama and the Democrats but in 2016 the election was pretty close and Trump managed to win every single Midwestern State except for Illinois and Minnesota and in Minnesota he came so close to flipping it and so Iowa and Ohio now are very Republican in 2020 Trump won them by nearly the same margin when everybody expected these two states to be significantly more competitive the Republican Governors were reelected in 2022 by solid 20 point margins and according to Nate Silva's forecast Trump has a 95% chance of winning Iowa and a 97% chance at winning the Buckeye state of Ohio so they're also going to be placed into the likely red category we also do have Texas and Florida a combined 70 electoral votes two big prizes for Republicans out in the past Texas was still a red State just go back four decades it's not voted for a Democrat since 1976 Texas was actually solid red in 2012 in favor of Mitt Romney but in 2016 Trump did a little worse winning it by just under 10 points and then in 2020 when a lot of people said Biden could win Texas he still won the state he won it by six points points a lot better than what many people expected in 2024 though there's no doubt Trump is going to win Texas by at least a double digit margin he really is doing very well in the state Nate silver gives him a 91% chance at winning yes Texas generally is Shifting more and more to the left but that is going to take a very long time to actually come to fruition Democrats are not going to win major Statewide elections in the lonar state for a very long time and by the time they do basically the entire Midwest will have gone in favor of the GOP States like Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania are all shifting more and more in favor of the Republicans and so Texas will be likely read on our map and the final likely state for us to fill in is Florida this used to be a key Battleground this was a state that both parties really went after but in 2024 probably the biggest change from 2020 is the fact that Florida is no longer considered competitive and this makes things a lot more difficult for Democrats because there are really no big states that are a lot more liberal now than they were four years ago but Florida is definitely a lot more conservative now than it was when Biden was elected President Joe Biden lost Florida by 3.4% he did worse than Hillary Clinton when most people thought that Biden was going to flip the state entirely he lost it and in 2022 Governor Ronda Sanchez won reelection by just over 19 points Florida is a red State and that is why Donald Trump has a n an 88% chance at winning it for a third time in a row the Sunshine State will be the final likely State and now we're left with just a handful of States worth a total of 99 electoral votes we're now going to fill in the lean states where Harris and Trump have between a 60 to an 80% chance at winning so these are the states that really could go either way but one candidate still maintains a slight advantage and so we're going to begin by getting the two remaining congressional districts out of the way Trump is the favorite in the second district of Maine while Harris has a slight lead in the second district of Nebraska for the vice president though she only has one remaining lean State on this map and that is New Hampshire four electoral votes four votes that Hillary Clinton almost lost8 years ago in 2016 when New Hampshire was the second closest state in the entire country behind only Michigan the granite state today though does favor Democrats slightly more looking at the odds for Harris she has a 70% chance at winning that's good but honestly not too great considering trauma has a one in three chance of winning a state he has never won before we're now left with just the big seven it is these seven states that is going to decide the outcome of this election some lean a little bit more towards the right some a little bit more towards the left but there's no doubt that these states can truly go either way and are toss-ups and so we're going to start off in North Carolina 16 electoral votes Donald Trump is the SL favorite here he has a 75% chance at winning three and four that is definitely very very good but it is not impossible for Harris to win however I would definitely argue that it's very unlikely she'll flip the tarel state Democrats have only won North Carolina once since 1976 that was Barack Obama in 2008 which was a very very good year for the Democratic party in 20120 everybody thought Joe Biden was going to win North Carolina nobody thought that he was going to do better in Georgia which was seen as the more conservative State North Carolina 1.3% was Trump's margin it was surprisingly good considering the polling average throughout the entirety of the 2020 election cycle showed that he was going to lose and so on our map North Carolina is going to be the first lean Red State we also have neighboring Georgia where KLA Harris has just a 33% chance at winning Trump's odd sit at 2 and three he is definitely the favorite to win back the peach state which Joe Biden won by very narrow margin in 2020 0.24% this was the closest state in the entire country this margin is just so small I mean Donald Trump doesn't need to do much to be able to win such a small portion of the elect red back KL Harris is doing significantly worse right now in polling and just in terms of General enthusiasm compared to Biden four years ago Joe Biden was destroying Trump in the polls people thought he was going to win 350 370 electoral votes in the end of course he only won 306 but nobody is saying that right now about KLA Harris the the few people that think that Harris is going to win they're saying that she'll win I mean maybe 28290 electoral votes it is very different from what we saw four years ago and that is why Trump is in so much better of a position he is always the underdog he's always being underestimated and so in Georgia Trump has a 67% chance at winning it's also going to be leaning Republican we also have Arizona which very similarly to Georgia voted blue for the first time in two decades in 2020 in favor of Joe Biden but the margin was just so narrow and according to Nate Silver's forecast Trump has a three and four chance of flipping this state back as well as state that he won by nearly four points just eight years ago so Arizona will also be lean Republican and so before we fill in the midwest I'm going to start with Nevada it has six electoral votes and it is going to be a tilt state which means that either Harris or Trump have between a 50 to a 60% chance of winning so these are really the closest States and according to Nate Silver's forecast Donald Trump has a 59% chance of winning Nevada so it's almost a lean state in favor of the former president but as of right now it will still fall into the Tilt column K Harris can definitely still win Nevada although she is the slight Underdog there as of right now but it's a state that no Democrat has lost since 2004 and looking at Trump's history here he lost it in both 2016 in 2020 by over 2% so it'll be difficult for him to win it but he can definitely do it although in the end it's not going to be the state that gets him over 270 honestly whoever wins Nevada is not going to make that much of a difference it is going to come down to the Midwest in the three states of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania I'm going to begin in Pennsylvania as this is generally seen to be the most important one it's 19 electoral votes probably could have gone to Joe Biden if he had stayed in Joe Biden was born in Pennsylvania he has that connection Democrats don't have that anymore and so Pennsylvania if it goes in favor of trump even if K Harris wins Nevada and Arizona Pennsylvania will be enough to get Trump to the White House for a second time and so as of right now the good news for the Trump Camp though is that he is the favorite he has a 61.7% chance at flipping the Keystone State a state that he did win in 2016 along with both Michigan and Wisconsin so it's not even near impossible for him to flip all three of these states back and so Pennsylvania will also be lean red we're left with just Wisconsin and Michigan right now these two states are both going to be very very close KLA Harris choosing Tim Walls to be a running mate will give her a slight boost in Wisconsin which generally is the most conservative out of the three states of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania but with this boost that Wells gives Harris Wisconsin is going to be slightly more competitive in fact Pennsylvania is probably going to be the most conservative out of the three this time around and so now to fill in Wisconsin and Michigan to complete this map for a while Nate Silver's forecast had KLA Harris in the lead but today Donald Trump has taken back both of these states Trump leads with a 52% chance of winning Wisconsin and in Michigan his odds are at just over that looking at the betting markets in Michigan basically we've seen a collapse for the vice president she had a two and three chance of winning just half a month ago now her odds are barely over 50% and so both of these states according to Nate silver now slightly skew in favor of the former president and So based on his 2024 election forecast Donald Trump is on track to win every single Battleground State and get 312 electoral votes while KLA Harris is at 226 this would be the worst Democratic performance since Michael duckus in 1988 thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and drw my Discord server Link in the description below