The 2024 Election Map Based On Polling Averages From ALL 50 STATES!

with just 57 days to go until the election today we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on polling averages from every single state and I really do mean it this time we're going to take a look at every single poll that has been released between KLA Harris and Donald Trump from every state where we have data to fill in this map we'll begin on the west coast with Washington where KLA Harris leads on average by 11 .3% the most recent poll has her head by just five points this is already a big drop off for the vice president from where Biden was four years ago when he won Washington by 19 points so the state is only going to be likely blue on our map down in Oregon it gets even worse for kamla Harris she leads by just 5% according to the only poll we have from the state between her and the former president Oregon then is going to be placed into the lean blue column and down in California this is kamla Harris's home state she served as the California attorney general and then as a senator from California until she became vice president in her home state she leads by 24 and a half percentage points this is worse than Joe boden's performance in 2020 when he won the state by nearly 30 points the golden state is going to be solid blue but honestly KLA Harris should be doing better moving on to the first competitive stage on this map we have the state of Nevada a state that Donald Trump lost in both of the last two elections he lost it by 2.4% to both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton but today he has a very good chance at flipping a state that no Republican has won since 2004 according to the polling average KL Harris does have a very slight lead she ahead by 0.6% against the former president she surged in the month of July however as we're coming into September more and more polls are showing that her lead is disappearing and it won't be long until Trump takes back the lead in the polling average but what you have to consider is that polls always overestimate Democrats and Trump being behind by 0.6% essentially means that he's probably going to win the state according to poly Market's odds Donald Trump currently has a 54% chance at winning a state he has never won before so Nevada is going to be tilled blue on our map but in the end I do fully expect it to vote in favor of Donald Trump we also have a very competitive race in Arizona 11 electoral votes a state that went to Trump in 2016 by nearly four points he lost it by one of the narrowest margins possible in 2020 losing to the now president by just 0.3% this was the second closest state in the entire country only Georgia was more competitive looking at the polling average today Donald Trump leads by 1. 6% and you did see that in July combell Harris did do better A lot better actually than how Joe Biden was performing before he dropped out but her lead and her dominance in the race has really started to disappear Donald Trump is undoubtedly the favorite once again he's taking the lead back in Arizona and is Led in virtually every single recent poll from the state if Arizona goes red Nevada is very likely to do so as well and so Arizona is going to be our first state on the map going for Trump and will be tilt Republican barely missing out on being lean we also have our first ever poll from Colorado between Harris and Trump and yes kamla Harris is doing well in this poll conducted by morning consult but morning consult is a very left leaning pollster and this is the problem that I have with 538 they put in every single poster and they allow these left leaning pollsters to take up so much of the weight on their site I mean the New York Times takes up a huge percentage of the weighing and honestly their polls were really bad in both 2016 2020 and even 2022 and this morning console poll is no different they've had polls showing KLA Harris leading in States like Pennsylvania Nevada by 10 points I mean their margins are just not even realistic and so Harris does lead by 15 points in this one poll but you do have to take it with a giant grain of salt this is similar to Biden's 14-point margin of victory in 2020 but in the end it is very unlikely that KLA Harris is even going to win Colorado by 10 points much less 15 but for the purposes of this map we are going to fill in Colorado as a solid Blue State but just barely New Mexico though is going to be more competitive KL Harris leads by 10 points in the most recent poll this is another one of those left leing pollsters the hill and Emerson College their polls generally are better though than morning consults but they're not great Harris plus 10 is okay she's still probably going to do worse than Joe Baden probably will win it by less than seven points but on our map New Mexico is going to be likely blue moving on to these states in the middle of the country and like I said we're going to go over every single state where we have data this is going to be a very comprehensive map even if these states are solid for one candidate or the other so in Utah Trump leads by 32 points in the only poll released while in Montana he's ahead by nearly 18 he's going to help Tim shei unseat the incoming Democratic senator here John tester who is probably the most vulnerable Democrat running for reelection we also have in the Nebraska Trump leading by 17 points although this is not really the greatest pole split ticket does tend to lean to the left while in the second district KLA Harris leads by 6% on average again Trump is still in a good position to win here pulling from these congressional districts tend to be pretty inaccurate but right now Harris has a lead but Joe Biden's lead I will say was significantly larger in 2020 than Harris's is right now and in Oklahoma Donald Trump leads by 16 points so we have data from four out of these rural States Utah Montana Nebraska and Oklahoma all going to be solid red while Nebraska is going to be lean in favor of Harris moving down to Texas its 40 electoral votes will be a big prize for Donald Trump Texas was considered to be relatively competitive in 20120 there were many points in time in which Joe Biden was leading in the Lone Star States polling average in fact right before the election the polling said Donald Trump was going to win Texas by just 1% it ended up being totally wrong he won the state by six times that margin and today the former president leads Harris by 7.3% with this being the polling average he's probably going to be able to win by at least a double digit margin but on our map Texas will go in favor of Trump by seven points it is going to be a likely Red State it's 40 electoral votes will be crucial for the former president yes generally Texas is Shifting to the left but it's going to take Democrats a very very long time to actually be able to flip the millions of Voters they need to flip in order to take this state we also have a poll from Alaska our first ever poll from the Last Frontier State Trump leads by 10% polling in Alaska tends to be pretty shoty as well in the end Trump can probably win by 15 points although generally Alaska has been shifting in favor of Democrats they elected Mary POA a Democrat to be their sole house representative in early 2022 but today Alaska still leans to the right and it'll still go to Trump but on our map it is going to be likely red and we're going to fill in all of these states where we don't have data from at the very end of this video so don't worry about that but for right now we're just going to focus on the states where we do have actual polls before we continue only 16% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below moving on now to the Midwest this is going to be a highly consequential region and I'm going just going to show you right now the states that k Harris needs to win in order to have a chance at winning the election she needs to win in Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania she cannot lose any one of these four states and unfortunately for her all four of these states are very competitive the only good news I really have for Harris is that since she chose Tim Walls the governor of Minnesota to be her running mate she is going to perform a lot better there than she otherwise would have if Joe Biden had stayed in the race Democrats would have lost Minnesota entirely a state they haven't lost since 197 2 but today k Harris leads by a 5.5% margin honestly it's not that strong of a margin she was ahead by 10 points in a previous survey USA poll this poll from the end of July this is right after K Harris announced her campaign she was ahead by 10 points today she's ahead by just five and so if Minnesota gets competitive if KL Harris can't even outperform Joe Biden who won Minnesota by 7even points in 2020 with Tim Walls on the ballot with her she's probably not going to win this election so right now Minnesota is only going to be a lean Blue State we actually don't have any polling from Iowa just because of how well Trump is doing there people know he's going to win and so there really aren't any surveys being conducted there so far but I'm sure we'll get some numbers soon in Wisconsin though this is a very heavily pulled State it's a state that KL Harris cannot lose and right now she does lead and the polling average is ahead by 1.5% but this is absolutely no guarantee that she's going to win she's only ahead because of this one Bloomberg poll Bloomberg does her polling with morning consult who I mentioned earlier was a very left leaning pollster and so KLA Harris is probably going to lose her lead pretty soon once this poll expires and Wisconsin generally does tend to be the most conservative out of the three ruselt states of Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania that form the blue wall the only reason why she's doing better in Wisconsin than she is in Pennsylvania is because she chose Tim Walls but that impact is going to fizzle out in the coming weeks and just look at the polling in 2020 Joe Biden was supposed to win Wisconsin by 6.7 % he eventually won it by 0.7 this is how much polling in Wisconsin overestimated Democrats KLA Harris leading by 1.5% with one poll giving her an super unrealistic eight-point lead says nothing about the state of the race Trump is probably going to win in Wisconsin but for the purposes of this map just based on the numbers right now Wisconsin is going to be a tilt Blue State while down in Illinois the vice president is ahead by 16 just above that 15o solid state threshold while in Michigan this is another key State and out of all of the Swing States the seven most competitive States on this map which are Nevada Arizona Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia Michigan is the most left leaning if she's going to win any of these toss-ups it is going to be the Wolverine state first KL Harris leads by 1.2% but she has the same issue that she does in Wisconsin Joe Biden was heavily overestimated in Michigan if you look at the 538 average was supposed to win by 67 points on real Politics the average was a little bit better but in the end Biden still did worse than expected and so her leading by 1.2% honestly it's not enough but right now just based on the numbers it is going to be another tilt Blue State on our map in the Buckeye state of Ohio though Trump is doing very well he leads by 9% nearly a double- digit margin even Emerson College again a left leaning pollster has him ahead by 10 points Ohio is no doubt going to go to the former president for a third time in a row and it will be lean red on our map Trump is probably going to do a lot better than he did in 2020 when he won the state by eight points and even in 2016 when he won it by just 0.1% more we also have polling from Pennsylvania this is a super important state for both camps basically whoever wins Pennsylvania is going to win the election because if Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania he's also going to win North Carolina Georgia and Arizona and that will be enough for him to get over 270 electoral votes when all the other states are filled in if Harris wins Pennsylvania she will also have to win Wisconsin and Michigan which are not at all guaranteed and so Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes are currently very much up for grabs it is a super competitive state with a tie in the polling average but basically every single poll here has shown Trump to be in the lead the only one that is Harris ahead is this one poll conducted by morning consult and Bloomberg like I said again they really are screwing up these polling averages and just look at where former Democrats were at this point in Pennsylvania during September of their campaigns in 2016 Hillary Clinton led by 6.22% in 2020 Joe Biden led by 4.3 and spoiler alert Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania in 2016 and Joe Biden barely won it in 2020 and so Trump being in a tied race he's doing very well considering the fact that he does lead in a majority of these polls we're going to play the kingstone state into the Tilt red category up in the Northeast we have a lot of polls from states that are generally more favorable to haris beginning in New York she leads by 14 points which will be shy of a solid margin while in Vermont this is the most liberal state in the entire country the vice president is ahead by 41 points and in New Hampshire KLA Harris leads by 5% this is one of the more competitive States in 2016 Trump almost flipped the Granite State losing to Hillary Clinton by less than half a percentage point this time around kbl Harris is probably going to do a little bit better than Harris but not as well as Bing did in 2020 when he won the state by a likely margin and so New York is going to be likely red along with New Hampshire while Vermont is going to be a solid Blue State as it typically is this is the home state of Bernie Sanders up in Maine though we do have some pretty bad pulling according to the RCP average KLA Harris currently leads by 13 points it's going to be a likely blue State on our map but in the end it's going to be decided by less than five points we're probably going to see a margin similar to that of Hillary clintons from 2016 when she won the state by less than 3% the University of New Hampshire which has done many of these polls in Maine they are a really poor pollster I mean just look at their polling from the first district KLA Harris plus 28 plus 21 and in the Statewide average Comm plus 13 I mean Joe Biden didn't even win Maine by a solid margin there's basically no chance that Harris is going to do better here than Joe Biden and even by a fourpoint margin that's basically impossible so you really cannot trust this polling here but for the purposes of this map we are just going to go with it in the second district KLA Harris is ahead by 1.5% although in my mind there's no doubt that Trump is going to win the second district of Maine for a third time in a row like he did in 2016 and for a second time in 2020 but for now based on just the numbers it is going to be tilt in favor of the vice president moving down to the Southeastern quadrant we have three new polls from Maryland which on average have KLA Harris ahead by 27 points still worse than Joe Biden's 33o margin of Victory from 2020 while in Missouri Donald Trump leads by 15 points on average this is a pretty strong margin for the former president Missouri almost went blue as late as 2008 it was one of the more competitive States for quite a while it definitely went both ways in the late 1990s the early 2000s in Tennessee Donald Trump is ahead by 26% and he leads by an even larger 27o margin in West Virginia so we have two more solid red states to add onto the map and so we're left now with really only four more competitive States Virginia North Carolina Georgia and Florida we're going to begin up in Virginia a state just like Minnesota that probably would have went to Donald Trump if Joe Biden hadn't dropped out of the election but even with Harris having replaced the incoming president as the Democratic nominee Virginia is still going to be close K Harris leads by just 4% in the polling average in a state that Joe Biden won by a double digit margin just four years ago Virginia also recently elected a republican governor in 2021 and generally the state is Shifting to the right and is relatively more favorable to Trump than it was in the last election and so if Donald Trump works hard in Virginia he has a very good shot at flipping it red for the first time since 2004 but on our map for right now Virginia is going to be a highly competitive lean Blue State down in North Carolina we have a state that was very competitive in 2020 basically all the polling said that Joe Biden was going to win it but in the end he lost Trump carried the Tar Hill State by just over 1% he won it by four points in 2016 it's a state Trump has never lost in before and he's recently retaken the lead in the polling average Trump leads by 0.1% KLA Harris is very far away from where she needs to be in terms of actually being able to win this state Joe Biden LED throughout the entirety of the 2020 election cycle in North Carolina there was not a single point in the polling average where Trump took the lead and in that scenario Biden still lost so K Harris has a lot of catching up to do there's no doubt Donald Trump is going to win North Carolina for a third time in a row according to the betting markets he has a 61% chance of doing so and so the tarkill state is going to be tilt red on our map but I'm pretty confident that he's going to win it by at least two points in the very end we also have a competitive race in Georgia although it's different here is that in 2020 ited actually voted in favor of Joe Biden this came as a surprise as people didn't really expect Georgia to vote to the left of North Carolina but Georgia is still a fundamentally red state with Trump having won It by Five Points in 2016 and in 2022 Governor Brian Kemp won his reelection by over five points as a republican ACC according to today's polling average Trum is on track to winning the peach state by 0.3% the betters are on his side as well he has a 60% chance of flipping Georgia back I think this is pretty accurate Donald Trump is the clear favorite in Georgia just like he is in North Carolina it's still going to be competitive but in the end I can see him winning by more than two points here as well and finally in Florida we have 30 electoral votes that are pretty easily going to go to Trump this is a huge boost for Republicans because just four years ago Florida was still considered the ultimate Battleground it was a very competitive State I mean just look at 2012 it was the only tilt State on the map in 2016 it went to Trump but still by a tilt margin although in 2020 Trump did better than anyone could have expected nobody thought he was even going to win this state but he ended up on top by three points and in 2022 Ronda santis the Republican governor of Florida won his reelection by over 20 points and in 2024 Trump is on track to winning it by 6% in the end he can probably win by up to a double digit margin I mean just look at the 2020 polling Donald Trump was supposed to lose it by 1% Joe Biden LED throughout basically the entirety of the campaign cycle but he still ended up losing Florida at the very end and so there's no doubt Trump is going to carry the Sunshine State for a third time in a row and he's probably going to win it by a likely margin even if the polling only gives him a lean margin of Victory as of right now and so this is basically the entire map filled in all the states where we have data from you can see it's slowly starting to fill in more and more as the election nears and so now I'm going to fill in all of the remaining States they're pretty solid for one candidate or the other that's why there isn't much polling from them Idaho Wyoming North and South Dakota as well as Kansas all easily going to go to Trump along with the first and third districts of Nebraska Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama South Carolina Kentucky Indiana and Iowa which is going to be likely red KLA Harris though she is the favorite in Hawaii Massachusetts Rhode Island and Connecticut while New Jersey and Delaware are likely blue States and of course the District of Colombia is going to be solid blue and So based on the polling averages we have right now Donald Trump is on track to winning the election with 280 electoral votes KLA Harris at 258 I will say though this map heavily underestimates the former president just like it did in 2020 and 2016 if you go back four and8 years ago polling said that Hillary Clinton was going to win 350 electoral votes Joe Biden was going to win 3:30 340 today Donald Trump leads in the polling which he has never done before and it really signals just how much better he is doing compared to the last two elections and as time goes on Trump has only been expanding his lead in states where he is ahead and he's catching up quickly in states where he's behind and So based on the current map Trump is in a very good position to win a second non-consecutive tour in the White House this November thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content cont like this leading up to the election and join my Discord server Link in the description below