Trump Gets Awesome Polling News If You Don’t Understand Math

Published: Sep 01, 2024 Duration: 00:04:32 Category: News & Politics

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So there was a headline on the hill the other day that really caught my attention. The headline was quote Trump leading Harris among independents poll. And sure enough, you get in there, you look at the poll results, it's one poll from you gov. Uh, and it does in fact show that Donald Trump is winning right now with independent voters. Uh, the number, uh, breakdown to Trump has 42% of independent voters, and Harris has 37%. So that's really bad for Harris and really good for Donald Trump if you don't understand how math works, right? 'cause look at those two numbers. Trump's got 42% of undecided voters. Harris has 37%. Okay, well if you do the quick math on that, 42 plus 37 is only 79. But the poll also tells us that 13% of independent voters say they're not sure whom they will vote for, right? That's word for word from the hill. So, okay, we have 79% who have picked somebody and 13% that haven't even doing the math again, 79 plus 13 is 92. Huh? Well, I'm sure you gov meant well, right? The the number, they literally, the numbers don't add up. , if you have a sample size, you have to have a hundred percent. So where's the other 8%? 'cause, 'cause y'all, y'all, y'all didn't mention that. Are there 21% who are undecided? If so, then that five point gap between Trump and Harris becomes completely meaningless. Even 13% undecided at the moment makes that five point gap app not matter at all. Right? You know, polling does require math. Okay? I, I, I took, as part of getting my political science degree, I had to take classes on polling. I learned how to do polling. I learned how to tell reliable polls from not reliable polls. And for the record, if it has a margin of error of over 3%, you're supposed to disregard it. And this one has a margin of error of 3.2%, which isn't terrible compared to other modern polls, but still kind of a little less reliable. So if we take the 3% margin of error, then that drops the gap down to 2% between the two candidates, plus as many as maybe 21% who are undecided, which means none of this matters, right? I mean, it shouldn't that be the takeaway from this. And listen, I'm not trying to downplay this. I'm not trying to say that no Harris is running away with it and crushing it and everything's great. What I am saying is that we have to make sure we pay closer attention to what the polls are actually telling us. And when you get A bunch of poll numbers that don't add up to a hundred percent, that's a problem. It's either a problem with the pollster who conducted it, or it's a problem with the media outlets that are out there telling us Trump's running away with independence if you don't count all the people who don't know who they're gonna vote for. That still doesn't add up to a hundred percent, but sure. Um, you know, I guess you tried, but you didn't try very hard. The point is this don't take anything for granted right now. Um, Harris is winning in the national poll. She is winning in every other poll. This one is definitely an outlier. Pretend it doesn't pretend none of these polls exist. We need to act right now. Like Kamala Harris is running 10 points behind Donald Trump nationally and in every single swing state. Do not let off the gas, do not let off the attacks on Donald Trump. Do not give him a free pass. We have to keep going until we hit that finish line until every vote is counted. Because up until that point, we need to act like we're running from behind and not be lulled into complacency by any of these polls, whether they are accurate and actually add up to a hundred percent or not.

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