Trump Pledges "Bloody" Deportation Campaign! Step Up W. Bush (w/ Bill Kristol) | The Bulwark Podcast

Intro one of the things he said over and over and over is mass deportation they had signs printed up didn't they at the Republican convention uh of mass deportation and it's 10 or 15 million people he uses the number and Steve stepen Miller seems to have plans for uh you know camps to put them in pending their you know being flown out of the country I suppose uh and now Trump says it's going to be bloody and he says it with sort of relish not with regret I've got to say and I think so the whole thing is pretty astonishing you know I mean it's it's one thing to think we should I don't know have tougher Asylum policies at the border or just cut back on the numbers of immigrants I I don't agree with that but people want to argue that but this is really another [Music] [Applause] Dick Cheney’s Harris endorsement level hey Bill uh was good to hang in Texas this weekend it was excellent you know I really enjoyed both Dallas and Austin and I enjoyed our panel and I really enjoyed the people there you know the bullwark crowd was a good crowd bullwark America we do have a bwork America is is healthy the rest of America not so sure I agree particularly in the South you know Red State bullwark America is good we have our the Liberals that are just desperate to uh have a call glass of water with us and uh you know the ex bushies who are equally appalled by us uh so it was nice to see everybody thanks for coming out speaking of ex- bushies who are appalled by what's happening in the world um we talked about Liz Cheney uh last week but since our last podcast uh she with Mark Lovich uh in Austin uh with us uh said that her father Dick Cheney would also be uh supporting kamla Harris he put out a statement about uh about how Trump is the greatest threat in the history of the Republic um couple days after that or maybe a day after that W said he wasn't going to say anything um what are your thoughts on Dick Cheney does it matter does it have any import does it just make you feel nice on the inside yeah the latter certainly that's sure I think it m c little these matter it would be good to get a few more people obviously the John Kelly's and George W bushes of the world the Chris Christies who ran for president this year and said he couldn't support Trump but um The Good the good news about Dick Chene is I got a fair number of people in Austin and Dallas saying I can't believe that 20 you know if you told me 20 years ago I'd be here agreeing with Bill Crystal or we'd be together in the same side I just couldn't have believed and I feel like Dick Cheney gives me a lot of cover on that because if they couldn't believe they would be with me they really really really can't believe that with dick trany I'm I'm just like a moderate mild kind of adjustment for them compared to dick trany you know that's true I can I do want the Dick Cheney and AOC joint ad for kamla Harris uh the thing about the Cheney statement that to me is important is he's you know in in two sentences you know summing up what Liz is saying right like that this is not about policy right that the race is not about policy that this is about the threat of Donald Trump the Great greatest threat that he sees and that is something that obviously all of us here at the bullwark agree with wholeheartedly and like that is the flabbergasting and frustrating part about all this to me is just like this is you know like this shouldn't be a hard call like when you read dick chainy statement it's like this isn't a hard call I like this other guy tried to overturn the Democracy he's this grave threat like let's just beat him this one time America can survive and then we'll move on to fighting about uh all the things that all the Dem hate about dick chany in 2028 like that seems like a totally rational thing and the fact that it's so few of them and it's two in one family that are actually saying this is George W. Bush’s silence I think kind of part of what's frustrating about this whole thing yeah I was struck I think you probably were too how many people I me correctly pivoted quickly and AR just conversations there in Austin from Dick Cheney has done this to what about George W bush and what about all the others and it's a very fair question and it's unclear what the answer is as to why they are avoiding saying what they truly believe and and it would be helpful for more of them to say I think yeah and they put out there was like a six by lined I for if it was Washington Post story or one of them about how W's not saying anything and I was like why did why did it take six reporters to shake this thing shake this tree loose but I this is the thing that's just frustrating about the W situation is that I get it I get it w did not like that his predecessors were commenting on what he was doing when he was in there he said that when he left the Oval Office he was going to let those that followed him do the job and that it wasn't beneficial for him to be weighing in and nitpicking and in the new cycles and and I totally agree with that in principle but again like we're in this situation where it's not a [ __ ] close call it's not a close call like and and people are not asking for w to come out and you know kind of weigh in on Donald Trump's tariff policy or you know start to you know go on the Nicole Wallace panel with me like that's not the request like the request is just to say that like it's not a close call I disagree with commo on things but the other guy tried to coup we need to move on from this the four of Horsemen the four perilous Horsemen of the Apocalypse I always talk about have Donald Trump at the head of all four and it's it's time to just Mo vote for com and move on like like why is that hard that's the thing that's frustrating yes hard because she's a Democrat incidentally I think they all including W supported subsequent candidates from their own parties it's not as if former presidents don't support the next nominee of their party or the nominee after that bush and McCain didn't really get along but remember McCain met with him in the at the White House in 2008 I assume I don't have a specific memory of this that bush supported the rney Ryan ticket so fine he normally supports Republicans this time you should support a Democrat just support the Harris walls ticket what's so hard yeah or Senators he does fundraisers for senators it's like the McMaster thing it's like oh I'm not political well yeah you are actually you're not that political right you don't comment that much but you know you have fund you have fundraisers for Republican Senators and people you know so again just put out one statement come on W I you know I don't even know if it really matter does it even matter I guess would it even help there's some libs that sometimes I see on Twitter like respond to me they're like are we sure it wouldn't hurt for w to come after and I don't I you know I think it would help but for me it's more just like I I I feel like I'm taking crazy pills this is not a close [ __ ] call just say it and let's I it's almost more about personal satisfaction which is maybe probably not the most important thing facing us true you're nodding you're nodding would it would it help it would help I think it would help a little I think cumula no one of these maybe but I think if you're on the fence a little bit you have't be paying ATT or either you're on the fence and have your sophisticated stupid Wall Street Journal editorial page reasons for oh I can't be for Harris this might say you know what I should be cast the vote or if you're really someone who's not paying attention but you may vaguely admire Bush and so forth Ved from 15 years ago whatever it was 20 years ago Latest election polls uh you might sort of say okay you know what I think I'm up for Harris so yeah I think it could push a few people over all right um part of the reason you sense the ageta in my voice is uh there's a New York Times poll over the weekend uh Donald Trump leads k Harris 4847 uh it's a national poll um some numbers that jumped out from me uh Trump was 972 among his 2020 voters uh he was leading among people that did not vote in 2020 4940 um 47% saw Harris is too Progressive only 32% saw Trump is too conservative people see Trump as a change candidate um the numbers among young voters are bad which you could look both ways maybe it's a bad pole sample um or maybe that's trouble so anyway um what is uh what What's your level of AGA with the uh with the New York Times PA over the weekend uh well like I mean it sort of fits into a general level of AGA which is you know even the better polls have haris up one or two basically I mean one or two are a little bigger than that and the state polls are all plus one or even basically in every state yeah CBS let me just throw in there let me just throw in there CBS right now has comma plus one adiss Michigan plus two in Wisconsin tied in Pennsylvania um over the week and minus is it the same poll or some other one I saw minus one in Georgia and Arizona or something like that so yeah so it's a dead even raise basically I mean this is all so much within the margin of error it's foolish almost to you know to overanalyze and um as I think we've discussed before but it is upsetting that after everything Trump has as much support maybe slightly more support than he had in 2020 or 2016 we saw him as president for 4 years we saw January 6th uh we've seen what he has said about what he will do in a second term and and and he's pretty clear about that we've seen the real radicalization of his movement in a way doing things now and legitimizing and normalizing things now that even in 2020 even in 2020 water two I would say didn't happen the Tucker Carlson with the Nazi apologist and JD Vans fine everyone they're all fine with Tucker Carlson or there's a little bit of a push back not too much Honestly though uh but again that's something I think so they it's gotten worse things have gotten worse and Trump's numbers have gotten slightly better that strikes me as slightly problematic terms of the country both the voters and the conservative Elites it's not as if conservative Elites despite Chan you know and a couple others are deserting Trump either the Wall Street Journal editorial page is where it was I think some people some of them were a little more prot Trump don't you think than they were maybe four years ago I don't know I feel like yeah yeah yeah that also strikes me as uh that strikes me as problematic I do Wonder ik so on the one hand um it's natural among all of us in the anti democracy movement to like get nervous and get get you know a little underwear in a bunch when you see bad polls like this but um I one thing that we had been talking about over the last couple weeks is that there's a little bit of overconfidence like this is a close race right and I and I do I do believe that it hurt Hillary that people thought she was inevitable in the end I think it hurt turnout and I think it hurt among some swing voters that didn't like her that probably would have picked her push comes to shove um and um it hurt among some Bernie voters I think I think it hurt among a couple different groups so an an acceptance that this is a close race uh you know is not necessarily a bad thing I don't know like there but then there's like the Simon Rosenberg theory of the case where like these things are self-fulfilling and you want to feel like you're winning because winners go for winners I don't know where where do you fall on no I'm on the first one of that you want people to be ared and I think the Simon Rosenberg Theory which was also the Carro theory he was always insistent that Bush was winning it was great in 2000 and he really had I talked to him once about it I said a little crazy honestly what you're saying and oh no you got to convey the impression of Victory and that was even that's why they went to California a week out because he was so confident that he could afford to go fight people forget this right he spent two days flying to California and back to fight for California and I remember saying I they hated me for saying this honestly I said this I think it was quoted in the Washington Post on that weekend saying I'm I think they fed away their lead they could lose Oh no you're crazy not Ary fer called me this has been noted in Austin this very bad for you who have said this you know and I happen to be right in this case so no I'm not on the side I think voters actually don't like the kind of front Runnings uh you know celebratory stuff they kind of almost has a little bit of rallying to the underdog at times and it's happened race after race right you've been the gore got votes at the end when he was behind and he counted out in 2000 I think is happen in other cases so yeah I don't I and I think it's you're right about Hillary so I'm I am for I am for being alarmed um good same so that's your silver lining when you see a bad poll that you know that it will keep people focused um quick aside on Carl Ruff Al Gore 53 and a half George Bush 41 in California in 2000 so they lost that but ended up losing that by 12 points and uh Carl uh when was with us in Austin this weekend and would not reveal his private ballot so um I've asked him to come on OneSkin to the bll podcast to discuss we we'll we'll be we'll be just counting our chickens because that's that's sure to happen any day now um support for today's episode comes from my pals at one skin uh do you have a little bit too much fun this summer this Labor Day it's no secret that the UV rays can take a toll on our skin leaving it dry tired and less vibrant if you want to hit the undo button on UV induced aging say hello to one skin your secret weapon against the Suns toll on your skin one skin products are all powered by the Revolutionary os1 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the code bullwark at on skin.co that's 15% off on skin.co with code bull workk after you purchase they'll ask you where you heard about them please support our show and tell them we sent you we only have one body one skin and only you can Campaign ads choose to make it better age healthy with one skin the uh ads IM balance I wanted to talk to you about um not imbalance maybe it's just interesting so I was watching I had a little bit of time for football over the weekend been ching out content and I took like 18 hours with my child we went to the oton park came home turned on the football game had a little delivery and uh and you know the the YouTube TV NFL these days you got the four box and so you get to see the commercials though also in the four box in all the different markets and um the KLA commercials are KLA talking about Economic Opportunity and the Trump commercials are about kamla and how she's terrible and ation and there's like a um you know the criminals that have been let out and and and economic stuff so in a in a in a in a way like the media discussion about the race is like a lot about Trump and maybe a little balanced it's a little bit about both but like the paid portion of this race is all about comma like kamla introducing herself Trump trying to hit comma so anyway I'm just curious what you think about that yeah it's interesting I mean one way to put it is analytically I think for us and really for the country I mean in truth the race is about Trump I mean the issue is is Donald Trump going to have a second term as president or not and Kam is a perfectly acceptable alternative so would be Shapiro and polus and you know whitward and many many other people and I don't mean to minimize her distinctive you know virtues and maybe also limitations but analytically the headline is Trump the headline in the history books will be Trump wins or Trump loses uh probably uh but polit that doesn't mean that politically the most important thing couldn't be people's Judgment of Harris of kamla Harris because everyone knows all about Trump so there's a funny disconnect I think where we being pro-democracy types want to talk about Trump and we should and it's important to but as a actual political tactics and strategy matter it's about Harris clearing a bar of likability and favorability and presidential you know character and toughness and so forth and so it makes sense that they're both focused on Kala the positive ads I think are pretty good know a little Bland a little generic I would say maybe I prefer a little more personal I think the personal bio stuff is stronger than they think but they have a lot of data and I don't but that um one thing that they've been nervous over the weekends I weend I talked to a friend in Pennsylvania uh who's seeing all he does is of course he watches football and it's like non-stop ads someone tell me this they're extending the local news in some parts of uh Pennsylvania I think other states from like I don't know an hour to an hour and a half or something for the ne in October say such demand to buy ads you know on news adjacencies right but you it's more it's the best place to buy a political ad because among the kind of people who watch local news that they you know sort of they have to fill up the news you know like high school sports you know big development so just they can sell cat stuck in trees in Harrisburg make a lot of money off these campaigns he said that his judgment was that there was damage being done Western Pennsylvania on immigration with the negative ads and that he personally is running to people he's voting for Harris but he moves into broad circles and uh run into people who are either seeing actual news stories about this some story about Haitians in Ohio I followed this that they're blowing way wildly out of proportion maybe not even out of proportion just inventing maybe I don't know and then there other stories you know all the immigration scare stories are being promoted on social media and then the ads are promoting them as well so that's his concern is the negative ads are maybe a little more powerful than the positive ads so I don't quarrel with as a tactical matter the Harris campaign thinking their key task is to is to make her increase her favorable numbers yeah I agree I don't want to be sexist here I but I don't get like in the one positive Ed you're seeing everywhere she's in like a living room with flowers it's a feminine set I don't know I I thought that the convention was very much like a prosecutorial set which I liked you know um and I don't know so anyway it's just a thing I and the negatives I I I don't think negative ads on Trump really work at this point like people know Trump but just what I don't like is is just like that the the eror that people are breathing is has negative comma positive comma and not a lot about him and I almost just want them to get Negative Trump stuff just to kind of bring a balance to it less that it's going to be you know moving people but anyway um on the immigration thing Trump was in mosy Wisconsin over the weekend Trump on Colorado immigration and uh and boy I don't know uh here here he is talking about uh immigration and some for some reason he's talking about Colorado and and Jared polus but let's take a listen there are radicals headed up by a radical governor in Colorado that has no clue how to solve this influx of crime into a state and by the way Colorado is one state it's much worse in other states but in Colorado they've taken over I mean in Colorado they're so Brazen they're taken over sections of the state and you know getting them out will be a bloody story should have never been allowed to come into our country nobody checked so on the one hand we just have this like hallucination that there are parts of Denver that have been taken over by migrant gangs um which I I'm pretty sure is not happening I have a decent amount of on the ground sources in in Colorado there between friends and family uh but the line there that uh that really struck me is um getting them out is going to be bloody and and and I do think that that is an underappreciated element when thinking about what Trump has planned I mean at some point you do have to believe what he says and one of the things he said over and over and over is mass deportation they had signs printed up didn't they at the Republican convention uh of mass deportation and it's 10 or 15 million people he uses the number and Steve mil stepen Miller seems to have plans for uh you know camps to put them in pending their you know being flown out of the country I suppose and now Trump says it's going to be bloody and he says it with sort of relish not with regret I've got to say and I think so the whole thing is pretty astonishing you know I mean it's it's one thing to think we should I don't know have tougher Asylum policies at the border or just cut back on the numbers of immigrants I I don't agree with that but people want to argue that but this is really another level and he just but it's it is this is where I think your previous point is important maybe people need to make a bit of a point of this on paid media you know the extremism in Trump there was that poll last week I think we talked about maybe that CNN that people do think Trump is more extreme than Harris and they don't like the extremism and bringing home the extremism from Trump I'm a I am a little worried that's kind of Sliding Away in in the people aren't focused enough on that uh I agree one more thing on this point um uh he he put out one of these crazy bleet the other day and I like the way that axus framed it up um uh Alex Thompson wrote president Trump is now proposing two of the largest ever Federal arrests of people living in America including US citizens if he's reelected adversaries and immigrants he gets into the immigrants part and then goes into the Trump untr social when I win the people that cheated will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law which will include long-term prison sentences legal exposure extends to lawyers political operatives donors illegal voters and corrupt election officials um so I guess we're on the list there I mean I get how some of this is like people push it away because it's Bluster a little they're like oh whatever he's not going to do this this is this is Bluster but like from the the voters out there that have a Libertarian streak these former Republican voters I do think that is an important frame like whatever actually happens his plan is two of the largest mass arrests in the country this bloody deportation we just talked about and Vengeance against political THS loab up was a bad in 2016 it's lock her up rather right it was it's it's against the rule of law to be you know saying you're going to lock someone up without a trials and due process and so forth but to be fair the crowd was kind of chanting it I don't know if Trump started it or the crowd started it Trump sort of played along it was always understood to be a little bit I don't know you know rhetorical let's just say here he's going out of his way to threaten not you know not one person who's you know famous and only it's the say part of the campaign but a whole bunch of people ranging from journalists to donors quite specific really he's kind of thought about this a lot right I got to get the donors I got to get the operatives I got get the you know journalists they I've got different probably different you know different parts of the government going after each of them and different camps maybe for us as opposed to some of the others you do we get to stay with the donors they probably get a nicer place you know I don't know which or maybe the inverse yeah anyway so no it's bad we're laughing about it but it's it's terrible it's unbelievable really when is it I mean has anyone ever said anything like this if before when if president of the United States who was at all respectable I mean it really is no of course not of course not and it would not pass an acceptable bar and and I do think you make an important point because sometimes particularly in like the cable news in this podcast world you get in these situations where Trump is in an interview and some and some clever reporter is like are you interested in arresting your political foes and he does the kind of like well we're don't have to look into it and like you know sort and there's that thing right that happens right and then people are like Trump leaves door open to arresting foes which is still bad right like that's still an easy question you say no but there it is a category difference from literally putting out a plan that's like here are all the people that I'm going to arrest and punish long-term prison sentences it's [ __ ] horrible um one Tomorrow's Debate sentence on the debate you have any any any thoughts any deep thoughts or expectations for the debate tomorrow it's nerve-wracking it's been deep thought what are we going to do for what are we going to do for the next 24 36 hours I me do you have a plan for kind of handling the the Tuesday Dre it's been you know election day is always the worst day right when you work on campaigns debate day is also a bad day and being this is kind of important you know that maybe the only debate in a Deb even raised where people don't know one of the candidates well yikes uh pepto abismal and close your ears mom cigarettes for me I think uh I want just hearing you mention that uh this is why we didn't spend the whole day I can't do two podcasts doing debate preview it is it is my stomach I've got stomach pains just thinking about it and uh we'll do it tomorrow we'll do a debate preview tomorrow [Music]