Rams vs Lions Sunday Night Football Picks | FREE NFL Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props!

hello ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the channel football is officially back folks that's right NFL week one is here it's finally here and we have a fantastic Sunday Night Football matchup to kick off the NFL season we have the Rams at the lines and I have a ton of picks to go ahead and share with you guys but first people before we dive into today's video please make sure to hit that subscribe button hit that like button and drop a comment down below it helps the channel grow and it really does mean a ton to us I will be doing these Sunday Night Football picks videos all season long so guys please make sure to hit that subscribe button so you don't miss out on any of our free picks here on the channel like I said guys really solid week one Sunday night football match up with the uh Rams facing off the Lions a rematch of last year's playoff showdown in which the Lions did beat the Rams 24 to 23 really fun game should be a lot of fireworks in this one let's not waste any time let's Dive Right into today's picks wasting no time jumping right into the outlier screen here guys shout out to outlier the best sports spining tool on the market I say in every one of my videos guys if you want to make money in the sports sping landscape you got to have the proper tools to do it an outlier is the best tool that money can buy they're the sponsor of today's video and they're giving you guys the guy boss and sports viewers a very special offer when you use the link Down Below in our description they'll give you a 7-Day free trial to check out liar out for yourself all the information all the data that you're going to see in today's video is available to you all you got to do is use that special link down below I'm only giving you guys a fraction of the data that outlier provides when you go ahead and go for yourself you can look into all the other things that outlier does provide it's a fantastic toy after your 7-Day free trial ends guys it's $19.99 a month and if you're making money with these picks with this information it should basically pay for itself so really great offer there try it for yourself don't take my word for it try it out for yourself 7day free trial down below shout out to Al for sponsoring today's video all right guys here we go starting right off the bat here with this Rams Lions match up 8:20 p.m kickoff here um we're going Rams plus 4 and a half on the spread so starting off nice and easy here guys with a spread pick I have eight total picks by the way to hand out in today's video I know it's a lot could be a little overwhelming but I found a lot of value in this game we'll tackle the spread first then the over and then we'll go into the player props and some of the more fun stuff later on in the video so starting off with this Rams plus four and a half pick here guys I just think it's too many points to give the Rams in a game which I think is actually pretty evenly matched now like I mentioned in the intro these two teams did face off in the playoffs last year when when the uh the the Lions beat the Rams 24-23 on their road to the NFC Championship Game the Rams were were plus three and a half Point underdogs in that matchup as well and they covered that spread as well I just think it's too many points to give a Rams team that is pretty healthy coming into the season which is kind of an important thing I feel like since they've won the Super Bowl it's been a string of bad luck with injuries and roster turnover and whatnot and for the first time in a while Matthew Stafford seems to be 100% healthy coming into the season not only that but he's got a ton of solid weapons around him Cooper cup is back seems to be fully healthy he's been bagged down by injuries the last couple years especially last year dealing with hamstring injuries and Ankle injuries he's got puka nula who's a little banged up to start the year but puka ended up being an amazing weapon for him last year as well as the emerence of Kiron Williams this Rams team kind of came out of nowhere it seemed like they were heading for a rebuild and they get all these young weapons like pukan Aku and kir Williams all of a sudden the Rams are back that playoff game was pretty close and for a while I thought the Rams were actually going to win it both these teams are kind of similar in the sense they're both kind of not great defensive teams they're not the worst of the worst but they're both bottom 12 in the NFL in overall defensive rating although I do think the Lions defense is a little bit better their run defense is actually fantastic their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired these are both two really good offenses with good quarterbacks good weapons around them and really solid running backs although I do think the lions are the better team and I do actually think the lions are probably going to get the win here I just think four and a half points is too much this is going to be a really close battle I think it's going to come down to a field goal most likely so yeah too too many points to give so I'm going to go a and take the points here with the RS plus four and a half a little dated to go ahead and back up my statement here Shawn M is now six and one against the spread in week one games as the head coach of the LA Rams so he's really good he starts off the season very strong and giving them a 4 and a half point spread seems like a steal for me the Rams are actually really solid against the spread you look at the screen here you'll see they had a 70% hit rate against the spread over the last 10 games and an 80% hit rate at this plus 4 and a half point line so they were really solid the only games last year towards the end of the year where they didn't catch the spread that minus 6 and a half versus the Giants minus two versus the Seahawks minus U excuse me plus four versus the Packers a couple misses there but for the most part this team was red hot and covering the spread towards the end of the season you give McVey a whole offseason to go ahead and prep for this game I think the Rams are going to come out really strong here again I think the Lions will probably walk away with the win here but I think the Rams are going to keep it bit very close 4 and A2 points far too many points looking at the total for this game guys I'm going to go ahead and rock with the over at 52 and A2 now the over is very high 52 and a half I know week one unders are usually the popular popular play excuse me but I got to go ahead and ride with this over I don't want to bet the under I just don't feel comfortable betting honestly both sides are really risky here but I like the offensive matchups for both of these teams like I said guys neither of these defenses are particularly good look at the right side of the screen here you'll see last season the Lions ranked 23rd in the NFL in scoring defense giving up 23.2 points per game and then you go ahead and look at the Ram side of things on their defensive side they were 19th in scoring giving up 22.2 points per game obviously Aaron Donald is now gone retired so both of these defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league and you look at where their weaknesses are it looks like it's the passing defense you see the defense last year for the Rams 20th in the NFL and passing yards allowed to giving up 231.50 point9 passing yards per game as an offense if you go ahead and flip that now back to the Rams side passing yards top 10 the league 239 passing yards per game last season for this Rams offense and the Lions defense really really bad bottom five in the NFL 27th in the league giving up 247.ai second best run defense in the NFL last year uh the Rams not nearly as good but still 12th top half of the league uh G 106.8 rushing yards per game both solid run defense mixed with both kind of shaky pass defenses again I do think the Lions defense is definitely better than than the Rams I just think that this defensive match up there's going to be a lot of points again both quarterbacks are healthy both have a ton of weapons I think there's going to be a lot of fireworks in this game all then we're going to see a lot of unders here in week one and again I know the prime time unders early in the year they're usually a good bet I just love the over here I think this game's going to be a lot of fun the last time they met last year in that playoff game was 47 so it didn't hit that over but it got pretty close I do think here in week one that was a playoff atmosphere I think you could see some more fireworks here there's actually quite a bit of History here with the Lions cashing overs in their week one games I don't know what it is but the lions are 15-2 in cashing the over in their last 17 week one games that's right 15-2 the cash overs constantly in these week one games not really sure why that is or maybe it's not really all that relevant but there seem to be a lot of overs cashing in these lion season openers if you go and if you go ahead and look at these Detroit uh totals last year you see they actually cashed this over 52 and a half line in five of their last 10 games last season including both the playoff games uh there versus San Francisco and Tampa Bay uh they didn't again there's a 47 point total versus uh the Rams but you see they cashed the totals were pretty high 4750 a low one there versus Dallas at 39 but 54 59 41 61 51 Lions games tended to have a lot of points scored last season again when you match that with this Rams offense that is highly powered has a lot of weapons great quarterback Matthew Stafford over seems like a really good bet to me and one last piece of information now you can't see here on my screen but the public betting percentages do seem to paint that same picture 80% of all bets seem to be on the over but 91% of the money is on the over as well so the sharps and the public seem to be aligned on this total 20% of all bets are on the under and 9% of the money which means there actually a little bit more public on the under than we think but it seems like the sharps the unders the professionals they're all in agreement here that the over is a pretty solid bet and piggybacking off of that guys not going to spend too much time on this pick but my third pick in today's slate we're going Lions team total over 27 and a half points again if that overs going to cash Detroit's got to put in some points again I do think the Rams keep it close but I do think the Lions will probably come out here with the win over 27 and half points you're getting there fromus 135 on DraftKings minus 140 on ESPN bet the Lions did cash this in six of their last 10 games last season and a 55% hit rate overall last year they cashed it again in two of their three playoff games a pretty solid Mark they had 24 points in that match up versus the Rams so they didn't cash it versus Rams but again playoff atmosphere this time around I think the Lions will be uh scoring maybe a little bit more points here in this game they averaged 27.5 points per game over their last 10 games all right guys now we're moving into the player prop portion of today's video we're first player prop on our fourth pick overall of today's slate we're going Cooper cup here over 695 receiving yards a plus money play on fandu plus 102 it is available on other sports books but again the best value it seems to be on fandu plus 102 and look guys I know a lot of people are kind of selling their Cooper cup stock I am buying it all back Cooper cup for the F again last year like I mentioned earlier in the video had a lot of injuries had a hamstring problem missed the first couple weeks of the Season then he had an ankle problem he was kind of banged up all last last year but even despite that he had a pretty solid season Cooper cup seems to be 100% healthy while as puka AA seems to be a little banged up I think Cooper cup is still Matthew Stafford's go-to Target here now at first glance the numbers are pretty deceiving here but again last year banged up a lot of the time missed some time last year he cashed the over in two of the last 10 games as a 31% hit rate last season he averaged 46.9 receiving yards per game but the volume is there for him to bounce back this season again uh the Rams are passed heavy team 57% of their plays are passing plays so this is a pass heavy team going up against a lions defense one more time again bottom five in the NFL last year in passing yards and although I do think they'll be slightly better this year I don't think the Lions pass defense is all that great looking at cups Target share last year 17.1% relatively small again I do think you're going to see a significant increase in his Target share puka n almost 30% Target share last season again Cooper cup all that numbers aren't exactly totally um applicable because he did Miss some time he'll get over the last 10 games his Target share was up to 21% again with puka an injury I do think you're going to see an increase in Cooper Cup's Target where he is Matthew Stafford's guy they've been playing together a lot longer than him and puka I'm just expecting a really big bounceback here from Cooper cup I think he's going to be again one of the best receivers in the League this year he's only a couple years removed from being one of the best receivers in the NFL not the best receiver in the NFL his numbers were crazy just turn the the clocks back about two years ago so over 692 yards plus money I'll go ahead and take the value there and like I've been talking about all video long Guys these these teams pass defenses are not that great so for my next pick I'm going to go and take Jared Goff over 270 and a half passing yards that's for minus 115 on DraftKings also available on prize picks the dad is much better on this pick than it was the last one you see Goffin seven of his last 10 games he cashed the over averaging 266.00 hit rate overall last season 12 out of 20 games last year he cashed the over averaging 27.6 passing yards per game so really solid data there for Jared Goffin again in that head-to-head match up in that playoff Showdown he had 277 passing yards versus the Rams I expect something pretty similar in today's matchup there for Jared gford minus 115 really solid value all right guys just a couple picks left here moving on our next pick we have Matthew Stafford over one and a half touchdown passes available for uh minus 140 it seems on DraftKings I know it's available for Less on priz picks but know priz picks not as available in as many states as DraftKings or FanDuel but you do see all the varying odds there it looks like DraftKings probably the your best bet uh at minus 140 again guys D is pretty solid on this one Stafford's cashed the over in six of his last 10 games an average of two touchdown passes per game over his last 10 now overall in 2023 a 44% hit rate seven out of 16 games but again focusing in on those last 10 games really solid numbers and actually he cashed in six of his last seven games so really solid numbers there look at the insights proved by Al Li again Matthew Stafford has exceeded one and a half passing touchdowns in six of his last seven games an average of 2.4 touchdown passes per game average over his final seven games an 80 86% hit rate so really good numbers to close out the year when they had their full receiving core around them and again the head-to-head dad the one time they face off with Detroit in that playoff game he did have two touchdown passes my line of thinking here truthfully with this prop is that the lions run defense is really fantastic I don't know how much success guys like Kyon Williams rookie Blake corm are going to have on the ground versus this lions run D if the Rands are going to score touchdowns and I do again based off all the picks I've given you guys I do think we're going to see a lot of touchdowns here I think they're going to have to be through the air I think two touchdown passes from Matthew Stafford in this game seems like a pretty reasonable bet and the data does seem to paint that picture all right guys our next we have two picks left in today's video we're almost done here guys we have a couple touchdown props here we have an anytime touchdown and a first touchdown scorer prop to share with you guys uh our next pick here we're going with jir Gibbs anytime touchdown uh we're getting that for minus 110 here on uh Caesar also available on Underdog FanDuel and on DraftKings jumping back into the outlier screen here guys now remember jir GB had kind of a rough start to the year last year with the Lions he was getting kind of nerfed uh by David montgom you see still a 61% hit rate last year on the touchdown Mark 11 out of 18 games last year he cashed the over but really the last 10 games what I want to focus on focus in on here uh seven of his last 10 games he went ahead and cashed the over an average of9 touchdowns per game again we narrow it down a little bit closer seven of his last eight games he cashed the over in the Insight provided by outlier again jir Gibbs has exceeded half a touchdown in seven of his last eight games an average of 1.1 touchdowns per game an 88% hit rate in his last eight games now the Rams run defense again pretty solid they were top 12 in the league but Jamir Gibbs can do it rushing or receiving that's the beauty of anytime touchdown doesn't have to be a specific kind of touchdown rushing or receiving any one of these Works honestly for Jamir Gibbs in the Red Zone I could see a little bit of maybe a toss to Gibbs where they run it and look at the red zone Red Zone Target share there also um you know 14% Red Zone Target share so I mean he gets a pretty decent amount of Targets in the red zone as well uh you look at the Red Zone rushing shares 47% uh not too bad I still think David Montgomery is their go-to runner in the Red Zone but say you see the opportunities have been there for jir Gibbs I like this prop a lot guys again it's minus 110 odds I'm going to do a little giveaway if this pick hits if Jamir Gibbs scores a touchdown in this game I will give one lucky commenter a free $10 Amazon gift card all you have to do is comment Gibbs down below and if the prop hits I will give one lucky commenter a free $10 Amazon gift card an extra way for you guys to go ahead and win and our eighth and final pick guys now this is don't this is not the official pick here the o one and a half Touch first half touchdowns that's not what I'm going with here although you could go ahead because it kind of correlates with what I want to give outlier unfortunately does not show the first uh first touchdown score prop data here for puka but I'm going with puka noua here for first touchdown scorer at plus 1,200 odds on draftking are a lot of fun guys guys don't sprinkle too much every pick I've given you guys so far is a one un play unless I specify otherwise my picks are one unit plays every pick has been one unit except for this one I'm putting 0.25 units first touchdown score prop guys they're a lot of fun they're not really great Investments uh in terms of long-term play again you only need to hit a couple of them to be successful but they're very difficult there's not really a lot of data or science that goes into it a lot of it could be luck uh so but they're a lot of fun to go with and pukaa actually did get five first touchdown score pits last season so pretty good numbers and I did pick this one just to show you guys what the first half touchdowns look like for puka again five of his last 10 games uh he had this in the head-to-head data he actually had a first half touchdown versus uh Detroit so again we're not you can go ahead and take this actually a plus 340 on FanDuel plus 320 on DraftKings um again if you really do believe he's going to be a first touchdown scorer this is also an option for you guys probably a little safer because it counts the whole first half there for puka but again I'm going with first touchdown score here plus 12 odds all right guys so those are all our picks for today's slate this link will be down below in the description as well as in the pin comments so you guys go ahead and easily follow along and tail with today's pick shout out to Al one more time for being the best sports Bank to on the market and for making it easy to go ahead and tail our picks guys that is it for me today thank you very much as always for watching please make sure to hit that subscribe button hit that like button drop a comment down below again comment Gibbs down below and if he scores a touchdown one lucky commenter will win a free $10 Amazon gift card guys I'll be back next Sunday with another Sunday Night Football picks video but until then I hope you're all winners guys have a fantastic weekend enjoy the return of NFL football