ESPN College Football Pickem Week 1 Picks Against the Spread!

Intro all right we're going through the ESPN college football pick them for week one of the 2024 season I'm going to show you my analytics let's get after it all right let's go ahead and do this again if you are new to the show do me a favor hit that subscribe button hit that like button and uh and go check it out if you want some Advanced content if you want some more projections if you want more bonus stuff bonus podcasts ET uh one subscribe to the podcast subscribe to this YouTube channel and you can be a member at betting cb.com it's five bucks a month or 50 bucks for the year let's go ahead and dive into it all right we're going to start off here and the spread picks for ESPN's college pickham starts off with and these numbers are way way off from what they are now but we're going to try and pick against these ESPN numbers see what we can do for this year so as you can see I've already made my picks for uh for the week but I'm going to go on and share them with you so that you know what we're doing I took Penn State minus Penn State vs. West Virginia 10 a half against West Virginia and the reason for that my number on this is Penn State minus 9.6 but you see that Talent composite there Penn State number 11 West Virginia number 54 I think Penn State's line of scrimmage play is going to be significantly better than West Virginia and I don't think West Virginia is going to be able to throw the ball like Garrett green I think is is okay I don't think he's anything to write home about so if that's the case that's what we're going to do we are going toide with Penn State I think they win this by two touchdowns uh so going opposite of my number here but I feel good about it carrying on Virginia Tech travels to Nashville to Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt take on Vanderbilt Virginia Tech is a 10 and a half Point favorite here that number is actually 13 and a half at the majority of books right now so you might want to uh I mean if you like Vandy at plus 13 and a half I would I would worry about that but I I think Virginia Tech is going to be good enough to be able to get to uh this 10 and a half number I mean a 31 to 20 win ought to get you there so I feel I feel pretty strong that Virginia Tech is going to be able to cover 10 and a half on this uh my number on it we'll swap that thing around again I'm going opposite of the number because my number is Virginia Tech minus 6 but it's week one of the season I don't know how much I trust my preseason numbers so that's what we're doing that's what we're doing so we'll go back and yes I'm going to take Virginia Tech minus the 10 and a half Clemson and Clemson vs. Georgia Georgia this is an interesting one they've got the line as Georgia a 13 and a half Point favorite this one's in Charlotte and this one I'm actually going to side with my number on because I've got Georgia by 10.62 two these are two of the top five most talented programs in the Country Now power rating wise I've got Georgia one I've got Clemson number 14 you know adjusted returning production that's one thing Clemson's offense had major problems last year number 132 in explosive margin they could not create explosive plays and they weren't great at stopping them either hence why they were number 132 out of 133 in that spot but you know I think they're going to be a little bit better this year it's year two of Garrett Riley I uh I think that I would trust Clemson to be able to cover that number on that this one I do not have a Graphic Oklahoma State vs. South Dakota State for I will go ahead and tell you uh I think Oklahoma State covers against South Dakota State yeah they've got uh they've got some returning production some the jack rabbits do but I don't have numbers on them I think they're going to be all right they lost the offens excuse me lost the their offensive coordinator how much does that necessarily matter I think Oklahoma State comes out firing I'm going to trust that Oklahoma state gets this thing done so we'll see we move uh move ahead in the action akan and Ohio State this Akron vs. Ohio State number is 50 and a half currently right now it's actually 48 and a half so there's been some buyback on akan uh it got through that 49 which is pretty surprising but uh a lot of people have picked 63% of the people have picked akan on this and I'm going and show you my my graphic on this Ohio State by almost 38 pace of play what I am expecting a Chip Kelly offense to look like now they might just I think they're going to run the ball a lot but they legit might break off like 10 explosive runs I mean it might really be akan may not be able to stop them at all but I also think might run the ball too so I don't know if it'll be 38 but could this be like a 45 to nothing game yeah but I guess at that point it could just as easily be 52 to nothing and Ohio State wouldn't even necessarily have to try that hard so something to pay attention to for sure we carry on Colorado State vs. Texas Colorado State and Texas now this is another one that you know Colorado State plus 36 A2 that is what I went with 50 6% of the people betting also went with this Texas plays at Michigan next week how much are they really going to run up the score uh 35 would be five touchdowns not so certain about that also the graphic that I've got on this has Texas by 30 and a half so we got six points of value on that one yeah I'm probably going to roll that direction so I I just think that they're Colorado state is good enough to at least score and if that's the case I don't think Texas is going to try and run this thing up they're going to try and get some new running backs some work uh especially heading into an arbor next week so that is that is our Direction uh next on the Alabama vs. Western Kentucky board Alabama a 32 and a half Point favorite 75% of the people have picked Alabama on this so I think we're going to side with them uh and that's going to go against maybe I should go Western Kentucky now that I'm thinking about it yeah why not we'll flip it around I'll go Western Kentucky and the reason for that my number has Alabama by 26 close to 26 and a half if that is the case then yeah like I I don't think Alabama's going to run it up you got Wisconsin coming up in a couple weeks you got South Florida next week probably going to run the ball a lot probably not going to put a lot of stuff on film you're just going to get the guys out there get them to go through the motions uh get some good work in I could see it there we go all right back to this Fresno State at Michigan Fresno 22 A5 is Fresno State vs. Michigan the number here and we're going to take the Bulldogs at plus 22 and a half uh I feel feel pretty strong about that I don't think Michigan's going to run this thing up Michigan's got Texas next week so again how much are they going to put on film I think they're going to run the ball I think Fresno Mikey Keane the quarterback there I think he can throw the ball around Tim Skipper is the new interim coach I I would not I mean my number on this is 19 so it's like right there along with it I've still got Jeff Tedford on the graphic but it's Tim Skipper he's the new inarm coach Jeff Tedford had to deal with medical issues so yeah we're going to take Fresno to cover against Michigan I'm I got to I got to rename some of these scenes that's what I got to do all Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame right Texas A&M is a one and a half Point favorite over Notre Dame in the ESPN college pickham and that line is actually out to three at this point Notre Dame um I will tell you I'm going opposite of what my graphic would say because the graphic says that Notre Dame should be favored by a point and a half but Notre Dame starting offensive lineman or starting left tackle uh he's out and now it looks like Notre Dame is going to start three freshman and two sophomores on the offensive line you want to do that against the defensive tackle Turner and the defensive end Nick scon I don't feel too good about it now I do think Notre Dame's defense is going to hold up pretty well but I think Texas A&M at home at night at Kyle Field yeah I will take Texas A&M them in this spot I've I've gone back and forth so many times on this uh it's it's just it's just Haywire it's it's absolutely bananas I've got to rename that thing okay last match up New Mexico vs. Arizona here who is going to win this matchup against the spread and that would be the New Mexico Lobos who played last week against the Arizona Wildcats and I think I'm proba yeah I'm going to keep it with New Mexico this number is pretty outlandish 30 31 and a half is crazy there you go I've got Arizona minus 23 on this uh the team Talent composite is not too overwhelming the power rating is adjusted returning production is but also think that Jason Beck the offensive coordinator there uh might have something different planned for Arizona now Arizona Nobody seen what they're going to do with Dino bers at at OC and uh and new head coach Brent Brennan but I do feel pretty good about it I do feel pretty good about this so so yeah so this is what we got here Closing Thoughts and Recap um we are taking let's scroll back through let's go back to our solo web Penn State minus 10 a half Virginia Tech minus 10 a half Clemson plus 13 A2 South Dakota State nope sorry Oklahoma State Min - 7 A2 akan plus 50 A2 Colorado State plus 36 A2 Western Kentucky plus 32 1/2 Fresno State plus 22 1/2 Texas A&M - 1/2 and New Mexico plus 31 1/2 and for the total points that will be scored in Clemson vs Georgia I just put 50 because who knows it I think I think it goes over the total which is what 48 and a half or 49 uh so yeah I just put 50 to go over why not all right that is going to wrap it up we're going to try and do this every single week I appreciate you for being here don't forget Bing cfb.isd [Music] [Music]