Debate Victory SURGES Kamala Harris in NEW National Polls

hey guys welcome back to today's video today is Thursday September 12th 2024 and we are 2 days after the first and only presidential debate between vice president KLA Harris and former president Donald Trump our first two sets of polls from the post-debate time frame meaning the past two days in which voters have had time to consume the debate and get their thoughts together to think about who do I want leading this nation this coming November in the first set of polls that we've seen from the morning consult and Reuters and ipsu two good quality polls that do a good job generally speaking of gauging where the national electorate is and in some instances almost nail the national popular vote as some of these polls did back in 2020 now these polls are using different methodologies and different understandings of how our nation votes and what it does on the grand scheme of things and so I will say that comparing it to 2022 and 2020 doesn't do as much service for us as comparing it to polls that have been taken this cycle because chances are and this has been the case with 99% of polls that have been released over the past week compared to 6 months ago those methodologies have largely stayed the same and that's good news for KLA Harris because what we are finding is that in a post debate era meaning today and onward KLA Harris has expanded her lead from what was three points before the debate to Five Points now and Reuters and ipau have been sets of polls that have really shown good results for KLA Harris really at times where a lot of us have been asking what is the impact of X event on the national electorate and there were some of the first sets of polls that were released after the DNC some of the first after the RNC after that first presidential debate and so a lot of the times them and the morning console which I will applaud has a very good time at turnaround in terms of gauging uh National voters in terms of gauging swing state voters they have a really good turnout on that part overall though they are finding consistent numbers here in both the morning consult and the Reuters IP sauce poll showing K Harris with a fivepoint Advantage now we all know that KLA Harris did win that presidential debate in the same way I said Donald Trump won the first debate against Joe Biden I still believe today now there is a clearer winner in this one and that KLA Harris wins in fact maybe not necessarily clearer I think Donald Trump had a very clear Victory back in June but in this one there isn't a question about it either KLA Harris won that debate and now Donald Trump is backing out and saying he doesn't want anymore and I think there's a reason for that you see taking a look at some of the data points that we've had just over the past two days ever since that debate Fox News has changed their electoral ratings from Georgia and North Carolina being lean Republican now to toss-up we have other battlegrounds States and districts that are moving in favor of the democratic party why because of KLA Harris's debate performance and what we are seeing in terms of who believes uh you know who is uh deciding this election it is swing state voters right here the Washington Post ask swing state voters 25 of them to be exact across a number of battleground States across the core States like Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania and some others and 23 out of the 25 say at face value comml Harris performs better does that mean all 23 of them are going to vote for KLA Harris over Donald Trump Trump the answer is no right over 65% of this nation said that KL Harris won the first debate according to reputable polls that have been taken afterwards or at least in most cases the Gap here is roughly the same 30 points whether it's 6733 or 50 to 20 overall though the Gap here is substantial for KLA Harris and again it is decisive in terms of who we say wins because of the data we're looking at it is comma Harris that won that debate and so it's no surprise that she should be and is extending her lead over Donald Trump after this first and only presidential debate and very heavy on the end old because of the fact that this debate did in fact push Donald Trump out of all future ones it may even cancel that VP debate between Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walls and that matters because this debate really was the only opportunity for voters to perceive both KLA Harris and Donald Trump in the head-to-head and with 7 million more viewers in this debate on Fox News Network uh not Fox News on all the networks across and some data points actually put it even higher at Baseline at 57 some say 67 point being though it was just 51 million viewers uh in the 20124 June presidential debate of Biden versus Trump so voters clearly were more tuned into to this one matching that is also very shocking because it is rare that turnout on a debate gets higher closer to the election you may be shocked to know that but voters typically take this first instance as their face value first impression of a candidate and refuse to watch everything else because people are busy right you're talking about an American public where people are working one or two jobs they don't have time to be watching 2 3 hours worth of debate commentary and debate when there are multiple things going on in their lives this is a very real fact and what we do see is that those who tend to tune in historically have been voters that are more likely to vote for the Democratic party now what we saw in 2020 was that there were 14% more Democrats watching the debate in the CNN indust poll in 2016 15% more Democrats this time Republicans won it by eight and there are questions about whether or not Democrats were worried about K Harris worried that they might see a similar situation with Joe Biden that's a possibility right that's always in consideration but it didn't happen and so to know that you're talking about an electorate that is about 23 points more Republican than it was in 2020 when Biden won the debate in 2020 by nearly identical margins to that of KLA Harris now if this was the same elector Is 2020 that was watching that debate con would be in the 75 to 80% range in terms of who believed that she on the debate and so what does this mean for the down ballot effects what does this mean for the presidential election well let's put it clear into numbers the morning consult poll today shows KLA Harris with a five-point Advantage she's increasing compared to the pre-debate numbers but on debate day she actually hit 50% what I find to be more interesting is that now that Donald Trump has been given that Center focus stage right there against KLA Harris she is in fact leading by more not because she's gaining support but because Donald Trump is losing support similar stories to to be told when you take a look at Reuters and ipsos their data point that was released if you go back to this time frame all you find is that KLA Harrison Donald Trump did gain allog together but she gained at a higher rate and at this period of time more voters were clearly undecided in their data than they are today this answered the question for a lot of Voters and in a positive way for KLA Harris meaning that more voters are going to her rather than leaving her and in the morning consant poll K Harris maintained that majority number while Donald Trump lost support and so I am starting to see a trend line here that KLA Harris's debate performance was strong enough to push her up slightly in the polls I said this before the debate I do not did not and I will say did not because I do not know you know what I can say right now I think there's a lot of data that I need to wait on before I make a conclusion on this but I did not before this debate believe it would have any impact on the polls good or bad and I think the big reason for that is because this American public has had Donald Trump on the ballot three times we are already starting to see ballots get sent out North Carolina get pushed back to a little bit but it's going to be sent out soon and the reason I say this is because voters have had 12 years 12 years to make a decision around Donald Trump not even 12 years it will be 12 years 10 years from 2014 2015 to now a very very long time for voters to say you know what Donald Trump's on the ballot let me think about him this way the Democrats have had three different people Hillary Clinton Joe Biden KLA Harrison so that's a separate question but when it comes down to Donald Trump himself the fact is we know we know he has a ceiling but we know he has a base and any instance in which K Harris does in fact chip away at that base is Monumental because the whole argument for swapping her into the candidacy is yes she has Room to Grow but the fact is she is taking some support away from Donald Trump and that can change the outcome of an election really really fast I think the combination of two things have resulted in K Harris taking this five-point advantage in Reuters ipso morning consult and that is something that when we visualize on an electoral map really goes to show exactly how impactful a fivepoint Electoral College Victory would be because based on our 2020 numbers and based on the post row era and I will say this Democrats lost the national popular vote in 2022 by a whopping three points and I say whopping three points because Republicans have not won the generic ballot nationally since 2016 and that was really really because Democrats did not field candidates in many safe red districts you take a look at 2014 that was really the last time even more impressive for the GOP in 2022 was that they had not won the national popular vote by any metric besides you know the house elections and I get it we're looking at a house election here but I will say Republicans still have not won the national popular vote on a presidential map since 2004 only once in the 21st century despite having three terms in the White House and so when we look at the 2024 map in a post row era Republicans won nationally by three but Democrats won Pennsylvania by five Arizona by five Georgia by three they won in all of these states right the governor R in Wisconsin by three right they won in Nevada in the senate race the map here in 2022 was far less conducive to democratic party victories and yet it came through not only did Democrats win in the majority of these Battleground States the governor's map outperformed 2018 a year where Democrats won nationally by eight we saw the Senate map outperform 2018 and 2016 when Democrats won the national popular vote in 18 by8 and the national popular vote in the presidential in 16 by two Republicans won by three yet the swing States went blue and I think we are in a similar situation where should kamla Harris win nationally by Five Points this is what the map will look like forgive me and spare me on these ratings here I'm not spending time uh focused on that but this is where I seriously think the map would look like should k Harris win the national popular vote by 5 percentage points because the threshold for national uh National head-to-head Victory numbers for KLA Harris isn't as high as it was for Joe Biden when you did in fact see much more engagement from some of the safe Democratic states and not to mention that too right but Donald Trump certainly has made some gains in some safe blue States and Democrats aren't using the money to Target those States if they were swing States they would but they aren't necessarily worried about the bleeding in California and New York and the increasing Republican vote chair in States like Florida because these are not Target States for the KLA Harris campaign which is again a reason why in 2022 Republicans did so well nationally but Democrats weren't contesting a lot of these races and also these safe District Democratic swings were things that mattered because it went from Democrat plus 30 to 15 but it was still a democratic Victory and still a solid victory at that if New York is to narrow down by 10 tomorrow it won't matter for the Electoral College New York could s 22% to the Republicans and Democrats would still win based on the margin they have in terms of Advantage Republicans could gain 2 million new voters across these multiple swing sorry safe blue States like New York and California and Democrats would still be in the advantage that matters getting back to my point here though if KLA Harris wins nationally by five I think we're in for a map that looks similar to this if you want to see margin I think I'll give that to you because we have a bit of time to do that but you know you're looking at a map like this and you're saying a five-point margin this is what it gives it gives a North Carolina Victory it gives a Georgia Victory it gives an Arizona Victory it gives a Nevada Victory you get New Hampshire you get these Battleground States and yes I'm going to say this I don't know if this one up being accurate but I'm going to say it because I think it could be true today North Carolina would vote to the left of Georgia just because Georgia is so exceptionally loves Ador the idea of being close Georgia North Carolina Pennsylania Michigan Wisconsin Arizona Nevada would all be team kamla Harris and so I think what we are finding is that this debate really was a very bad moment for Donald Trump and I think we still have weeks of data to sort through to really come to a more uh conclusive answer as to the direct impact of this debate but voters very clearly resounding across reputable networks and reputable polls say kamla Harris won and when you back down from a debate after losing the one and only it's never a good look in 2016 and 20 Donald Trump had the same concerns about the debate this is not the same guy as the 2016 and 2020 Trump and that's what we're coming to realize you know I remember back in 2016 I was 13 years old watching CNN and I just aged myself a little bit maybe you're younger than me maybe you're older than me point being though I remember this vividly there would be times in which you know I'd be leaving for the school day and they'd be talking about Trump's rally yesterday in Wisconsin and I'd come back for Middle School laugh out loud right middle school and I'm seeing Donald Trump campaigning in Michigan an hour later he's campaigning in Pennsylvania and he's holding three rallies a day for two weeks straight through the election Hillary Clinton about five a week which is good but it's very on Pace and on track to that of previous campaigns no one could keep up with Donald Trump's energy no one can keep up with Donald Trump's enthusiastic base we forget there were berninger bust in 2020 Joe Biden in 2016 there were Joe Biden settle for Biden in 2020 we're not seeing that in 2024 which is why this is different and Donald Trump Trump again back to this point about the debates 2016 shellacked in that first debate lost by a larger margin I get it more democratic viewing base but larger margin in the CNN instant poll than he did in this most recent one yet here he was on the second debate on the third debate then 20120 came he didn't run away from those debates in 2016 he won the election 2020 first debate happened again defeated Co didn't have the second debate third and final debate Donald Trump lost but not by a larger margin and it brought some voters back in Biden saw a huge bump after that debate he was granted ahead by a lot but was still seeing the necessary bump to win you got that PMP then Donald Trump started to walk it back started to become more presidential and that debate performance was actually doing numbers for him it showed him in a different light than that first debate did and yet this time rather than face the challenge as he did in two previous elections he backs out I think the reason for this is because they are trying to cut their losses now but they forget how bad of a look this was going to be remember when Joe Biden had that cataclysmic debate we never said Biden should cancel the rest of the debates even though some Democrats were certainly saying let's cut our losses they knew the look of canceling future debates would be worse in terms of who can answer questions for swing voters I have a plan for you and I'm willing to defend it against my opponent because all of that is KLA Harris and none of that is Donald Trump and that will be the narrative that we will see drilled in if you're in a swing standand I apologize for you because you're going to see ads about this for the next s weeks ramming it in ramming it in ramming it in because it is an entirely valid point and voters seem to think so too this election has been very interesting to say the least I mean this is not just interesting this is a historic election regardless of who wins the swapping out of a nominee in July the impact of presidential debates leading to Republicans dropping entirely a democratic nominee switching out for his vice president we are in a weird era in America folks and we are in a time frame that can be studied for centuries but I do believe right now and the moment that we are at Donald Trump should not have backed out of this debate and I don't think it's going to help his numbers and what we are seeing is that because voters do believe KLA Harris did better had a better performance they are responding to that with higher chances of voting for her and an increased tendency to say I'm voting blue rather than I don't know who and so now kamla Harris is in a position where she's expanding her lead building it up to an even higher point Point than where it was before and there isn't much now between now and election day for voters to have the ability to change their mind because there's no National debate there's no mainstream headlines this is all a race of campaign and rallies that kamla Harris has now gotten through possibly one of the most important moments in her life and very clearly won by a massive margin doing so so thank you guys so much for watching this video make sure to comment down suggestions below subscribe on the left if you haven't already and check out the Instagram and Twitter at the top left of the screen there's also a Discord server for you to go ahead and join on the screen there's a video you can watch then a playlist for my 2024 presidential election analysis videos again thank you guys so much for watching and I will see you all tomorrow