SHOCKING ALASKA POLL: Donald Trump Leads by FOUR in SOLID Red State

Friday September 13th 2024 and today we are going to be talking about the Battleground state of Alaska a new poll today showing Donald Trump with just a five-point advantage over vice president kamla Harris in the big group poll being done in the state of Alaska entirely conducted after the debate September 11th through September 12th released by Alaska survey research the data they provided showed that amongst a group of 100 uh sorry 1,254 likely voters here we find that Donald Trump maintains an advantage 47 to 42 to over KLA Harris and when it comes pushed 48 to 44 across the overall electorate now 48 to 44 and 47 to 42 are really damaging numbers for Donald Trump RFK Jr getting a whopping 5% entirely post Dropout and a big reason why we might be seeing Donald Trump doing so poorly against KLA Harris is because Alaska is a state that has had a unique change and shift away from the Republican party ever since John McCain and Sarah Palin ran together back in 2008 in 2008 Sarah Palin being on the ticket being the incumbent governor of the state of Alaska brought a massive Victory across the state that has largely been seen as solidly Republican Democrats haven't been able to win the state in decades and it looks like this election cycle may not be the time at which it changes but it does show a far closer race and a shocking new poll from one of the most accurate pollsters across the state what they find is that Donald Trump receiving 48% of the vote to KLA Harris's 44% really bodess bad news for Donald Trump on the national level because Alaska is a state that back in 2020 voted for Donald Trump by double digits as well as in 2016 what's interesting too is that the majority of people in the state of Alaska that were surveyed here had watched the presidential debate 67% say yes they watched this debate to 33% and just 29% of them say Donald Trump won the debate compared to 52% of Voters saying that KLA Harris instead won that debate and the reason why that matters is because it is clear that this debate did in fact change some people's minds around the state of Alaska and across the country we've seen recent polls on the National head-to-head showing KLA Harris expanding her lead to Five Points Nationwide in the two released National polls which shows again good news for KLA Harris but I want us to understand a bit more around the Alaska survey research poll and why I believe it to be possibly one of the best polls for any Battleground State across the country especially given that Alaska is a state that receives very little resources from both parties as well as very little resources in actually understanding its electoral Dynamic now if you've been watching me for a while you remember that I covered the 2022 special election in the state of of Alaska that Mary pela ended up winning in a shocking shocking Victory she received just 39.7% of the vote in the first round the combined Republican vote share was just around 60% across the state and so it seemed as if Democrats really had lost any and all opportunity to win in this state they thought that there wouldn't be an opportunity for Democrats to end up being in a position where they have the majority of the vote in the state of Alaska after all a combined Republican vote share being nearly 60% is a really hard thing to crack when you're looking for a majority of the vote especially in a ranked Choice voting system but Alaska survey research had predicted right before the election what ended up actually happening and it was quite interesting to see just how accurate they were in 2022 now this is from one of the posters I know it doesn't seem too official but it's coming straightly straight from Twitter because Alaska Sur research again was one of the few polling firms across the state that also had not been receiving as much national attention until this special election where they nailed it what they found was that in the first round of voting Mary paler would receive 39.4% Sarah 26.9% Nick baggage 25.8 now we did see that Sweeney would be eliminated she ended up dropping out before the race had been able to be cast but the round one votes here were 39.4% for Mary POA and the reason I bring that up is because when you take a look at the actual results it was 39.7% off by just 0.3% Sarah Palin went up slightly Nick beit went up slightly but that is to be expected as another candidate departs from the race and overall Mary Pala was nearly identical to what the margin had actually said now here's where they went wrong they said that begic would make it through to the final round but what they decided to do was do hypotheticals Nick begic versus Mary Pala and Sarah Palin versus Mary Pala now they found that Nick begic who was long seen as the more pragmatic and more traditional conservative was going to defeat Mary POA by roughly nine points this would be a good result for Democrats given that they don't really come that close in the state of Alaska but against Sarah Palin this was the big shock they predicted that Mary POA would defeat Sarah Palin by five points across this state now we remember Sarah Palin was the governor in this state she was arguably very popular up until she ran for vice president when she really fell out of The Graces not only with the state of Alaska but also we saw very much on the national level but this fivepoint Advantage here Mary POA had over Sarah Palin actually came to fruition on Election Day when they cast the ballots where Mary POA ended up winning by roughly three points and so it was a slight overestimation for Democrats here but at large they really made the Mark here they were able to accurately gauge the electorate in a state that really does not do well for polling given how rural it is how sparse it is uh how few voters there are in this that are willing to pick up a phone and actually answer a survey then we move on to the special elections regular election the same candidates had to run and so was the top three running in the state of Alaska what we found was that a lot of these polls were really all over the place but the most accurate one we saw through the election was one that they released back in October what they found right at the end of October just days before the election it was November 3rd uh or not November 3rd uh November 8th 2022 Mary POA in the first round actually bumped up quite significant L supposed to get 48.9% of the vote Sarah Palin at 25.6 uh Nick begagit at 20.5 libertarian at 5 then you move over down to the round two Mary pela would clear and she would be able to win what we found here was that Mary pela Not only was able to win against Sarah Palin was that she was already able to defeat her by roughly the margin that Alaska survey research had predicted and when it comes down to that first round polling 48.9% take a look at the actual 48.8% it was as if it was off by just a fra of it which it was off by just 0.1% so Alaska survey research ended up nearly meeting the moment here and predicting the final margin again slightly overestimating Mary Pala but only by a fraction and ultimately the prediction ended up being correct and so then came the new poll that they released just today from the state of Alaska showing Donald Trump with a five and fourpoint advantage over KLA Harris in what honestly should be a shell shock to the Republican party because as I've been saying Alaska is this state the Republicans have been able to win in for quite some time in 2016 Donald Trump won it by 14 but then in 2020 it became a 10-point state Republicans have never expected a state like Alaska to be a Battleground state it had not voted for a democrat in over 50 years and there was no real reason to believe the Democrats in 2016 2012 especially 2008 and also 2020 were going to come within a point where Alaska could be competitive but it is because of Democrats like Mary Pala and Republicans like Donald Trump who push away the Republican electorate in the base people like Sarah Palin who ended up making voters who were ranking a republican first ranking Mary Pala second because they couldn't stomach the idea of a representative Sarah Palin and they couldn't stomach the idea of a president Donald Trump you're finding that those voters are the driving factor in making Alaska more competitive and so Donald Trump ended up getting 52% of the vote back in Alaska 53% actually Joe Biden at 43% 42 43% rough running roughly even with the data we're seeing now in the state of Alaska it isn't necessarily that Democrats are getting more and more of the vote share but rather that the Republicans at the top of the the ticket are getting less of the vote share here and it's because voters are turning away from Donald Trump himself but a six-point swing or a fivepoint swing whether you want to look at it from the positive or you know more negative lens for Republicans either way it is a really bad sign that Democrats are in a position where they are within reach in this state because it really shouldn't be a Battleground state it has been long heralded as this safe Republican state that can rely on it for the Senate they can rely on it for the governorship they can rely on it for the house and Democrats sometimes break through in 2008 Democrats won the senate election in the state of Alaska only to be completely defeated in 2014 Independence have broken through in the governorship only to be defeated in the next election cycle it is very rare that Democrats do well in Alaska and in fact Mary P's victory in the special election was the first Democratic victory in Alaska since before roie Wade was written into law in fact Alaska had the same representative Don Young from 1972 a year before we saw roie Wade put precedent into law by the Supreme Court and he died passed away unfortunately in 2022 prompting this special election which Democrats were able to win for the first time having vacated the seat now with this opportunity they were able to win for the first time in over half a century and so it was very very very important for Democrats that they did well in Alaska because it showed a larger movement Across the Nation that voters were in fact fed up with the make America great again style of campaigning the make America great against style of Republican even in a state like Alaska Sarah Palin again who had record High approval when she was tapped to be John McCain's VP in 2008 had fallen so far from Grace not necessarily on her own account because even after the 2008 election voters in Alaska didn't sour on her immediately it was her association with Donald Trump who does not hold a high regard in the state voters do not like him they don't want him they begrudgingly vote for him and that shows in the election results it's the only reason why Alaska narrowed down from 2012 to 2016 why it even further narrowed down from 2016 to 2020 and why by all signs by the gold standard poll Alaska survey research will narrow down again from 2020 to 2024 there is reason for all of this and voters clearly have been sending a message in Alaska multiple multiple times Donald Trump and his make America grade again crew are not welcome in the way the McCain family was the Palin family was the Romney family was that is the way that voters in Alaska have really started to show their disdain for Donald Trump and what is also unique to the state of Alaska is the vote of Native Americans the vote of Voters who really don't Encompass a large portion of the American population when it comes down to voting percentage and also tend to be the most democratic it also is a state where rural voters tend to be more democratic than not you can take a look at some of the outskirts this looks like a map that if Democrats were to take the same Republican Playbook and say my state is more blue than red by map why don't I live in a blue state right all of those arguments that have been made and and clearly are articulated by many members of the Trump Trump team Alaska is not one of those States and so that's why it really is in a position where Democrats see a prime opportunity and see a different style of campaigning that might work for them unique to Alaska and they have been able to do so with representative Mary pela who right now is in a position where she could very well win re-election even though she's in a head-to-head race what is normally a rank Choice voting scenario so essentially what happened was that the top four the bottom two decided to drop out of the race ultimately now it is a two-way race and what is interesting to is that up until this election we're seeing Mary POA and Nick begic are neck and neck this race should not be neck and neck Republicans should be able to win this race with ease remember the last few election Cycles Republicans have had no struggle or no problem in the state of Alaska the closest it got was a six-point margin in 2018 because Democrats ran a stellar candidate and really caught Republicans when they didn't even have the money to focus on Alaska then they got their things together they started to win Alaska by more but then came 2022 where Mary Pala as a Democrat changed the way that Democrats campaign in this state and Republicans started to realize that maybe parts of their brand were toxic now we're seeing that even more but Alaska could also be really a point to a larger problem for the nation where voters here who are watching the debate are turning more away from Donald Trump it's no secret that Alaska is a state that Republicans Should Have and Have clearly relied on in the past and when you take a look at their matchup against Biden Donald Trump did double in terms of margins eight points instead of four points and that is something that really reminds me that Alaska may not be this state that is uh you know entirely for the Republicans but against the right Democrat rather necessarily the wrong Democrat it does good results for the GOP we saw that you know roughly a year ago Donald Trump LED Joe Biden by eight points across the state and again this is a really strong poll this is a really really accurate pollster that might ultimately be slightly overestimating Democrats but regardless it is a shift nonetheless from the GOP which Republicans cannot afford because any shift from the 2020 election means they lose this race right this isn't some type of Republicans have a bench of states that they can just go ahead and freely lose without concern about uh losing the election no they can't afford to lose a single percentage of vote share from the 2020 election otherwise they will not be elected this coming November and so Alaska is one of those states where I think also too if this state becomes more routinely pulled and more routinely on the radar for National Democrats it could become a republican problem for the Republicans down the line because it may not be this election cycle but if Donald Trump wins the state of Alaska by six points uh in 2024 that will be a state of the Democrats Target in 2028 another interesting way to look at this too is that when you take a look across the nation from the 2020 election results Alaska went to Trump by just 10.1% I say just or actually just 10% I say just 10% because there are other states that are historically much more competitive that voted more for either side of the aisle than the state of Alaska which should help put this into context Colorado ended up voting for Biden by 14 points that matters in New Mexico Democrats ended up winning by 11 in Virginia Democrats ended up winning by 10 right they're winning some of these states that historically have been 3 2 1. States for Democrats Alaska voted less for Trump than Democrats won in New Mexico in Colorado in Virginia and even in some cases the margins here in Alaska rivaled that of states that are traditionally you know more competitive for Democrats and also too they rivaled margins that Republicans really are terrified about anything 10 points or less in states that have historically been so conservative are things that they need to watch for and look for States like Texas which in 2016 narrowed down to being a single-digit state for Republicans for the first time in decades in 2016 when Trump swing swung every single other Battleground state to the right Texas swung to the left got on the radar and the agenda for Democrat Republicans in 2020 as well as Democrats and then again it narrowed up again and now they're doing protection in the state for 2024 and years Beyond but overall what I take away from this Alaska poll isn't that democrats should invest in it this cycle but that it absolutely and may very well be a swing state in the 2028 2032 even the off-ear election Cycles because that is the current state of the race the most accurate pollster the gold standard across the state of Alaska is showing Donald Trump within five points in the state and amongst different voters four points that is a very different type of Alaska that we we had worked with since they started this YouTube channel in 2017 and Republicans should be really worried because if Alaska is narrowing down to four or five points it means a larger swing away from the rest of the nation especially in the aftermath of the presidential debate where voters very clearly even in a red State believe KLA Harris won so thank you guys so much for watching watching this video make sure to comment down suggestions below subscribe on the left if you haven't already and check out the Instagram and Twitter at the top left of the screen there's also a Discord server if you to go ahead and join on the screen there's a video you can watch and then a playlist for my 2024 house election analysis videos again thank you guys so much for watching and I will see you all tomorrow