FiveThirtyEight: Kamala Harris Receives BIG Debate BUMP

welcome back to today's video today is Saturday September 14th 2024 and today we are going to be talking about the 2024 presidential election forecast from 538 5 days after the first and only presidential debate between vice president kamla Harris and former president Donald Trump this presidential debate comes at a time where both sides of the aisle have been in a very competitive presidential election the odds have been tightening over the past two weeks and it has come to a point where any and all impacts on the left wing on the right wing have started to change the trory of the race in one candidate's favor over the other now K Harris had been at 60% roughly 3 to 4 weeks ago she had been riding high and had been graining in terms of the overall forecast 538 initially had her losing against Donald Trump when she first became the presumptive and then the eventual nomin for the Democratic party but as we got closer to the Democratic Convention and as we got closer to that first presidential debate she had maintained a lead Nationwide but just around a week ago in fact less than on Monday evening 538 had KLA Harris at just a 55% chance a victory Nationwide now you might be thinking 5% really doesn't make a difference but in an election as close as this one it absolutely does and what we've started to see is that this impact in terms of K Harris gaining and support isn't necessarily saying that she's here to completely run off the map but she is in fact doing better tremendously better in some of these Battleground States especially compared to that of President Joe Biden Across the Nation and so 538 forecast what I really want to unpack here is the impact of this presidential debate as we've started to see new major headlines and in terms of national polls from the morning consult and Reuters and ipsos that are showing KLA Harris expanding her National lead not a single poll released nationally over the past four days that has been conducted post debate has shown Donald Trump in the advantage over KLA Harris and in a number of battleground State polls to what are we finding KLA Harris is starting to to do better and so it isn't just that either right the polls are one thing the other big part of elections are finances and KLA Harris raising $47 million after the first and only presidential debate this is a huge sum of money with just two months to go in the election when Democrats are already sitting on a war chest of half a billion dollars not to mention that the political betting markets have started to change in favor of KL Harris today she stands as the favorite over Donald Trump despite being uh in the losing category for the past month on the poly Market forecast and so overall here what we have found is that KLA Harris is in fact receiving a debate bump while it isn't something that would say KLA Harris has guaranteed the presidency it puts her closer to matching uh that magic number of 270 whereas previously it looked a little bit more difficult to get to so I want to unpack the 538 forecast here showing KLA Harris with nearly a 20% Delta between her and the former president 60 to 40 is arguably a position that Democrats would have killed for a year ago and are probably very happy that they're at this point now but it's still not a point of complacency but 60 to 40 does in fact show a clear Advantage for one political party over the other and in this case that political party of course is the Democratic party and we can take a look too looking at the forecast over time right up until this presidential debate September 10th was debate day KLA Harris was at 54% in terms of her odds Nationwide and so in the immediate aftermath of the debate it didn't look like at least we were on track for an uptick until New debate numbers so showed differently the day after the presidential debate her numbers stayed roughly the same on the 12th they stayed roughly the same but then our two new sets of national polls came out showing KLA Harris in a better position some new Statewide polls and now today she has inched up to a 60% chance of Victory this November election and like I was saying this has been driven by some Battleground states that have historically been very positive for the Republican Party States like North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona that have started to Titan in a positive way for KLA Harris and put her in a really strong position when it comes down to these Battleground States not to mention States like Wisconsin showing her at a 64% chance of Victory States like Michigan showing at a 61% chance of Victory States like Pennsylvania showing her a 56% chance of Victory because when you take a look at some of these other states Nevada for instance has KLA Harris at 55 to 45 Arizona for instance has her tied with Donald Trump 50 to 5050 Georgia has K Harris up narrowly 51 to 49 and North Carolina state that Democrats really really want has her tide against Donald Trump the overall electoral map here and the math here is strong for Democrats especially given that this Advantage has now started to increase right what it would look like translating to an actual electoral map I mean you're looking more at something like this right taking away uh not even taking away we haven't even given it yet but not including Arizona which was a Biden state in 2020 but if you include Georgia and the State of Arizona I mean chances are Democrats are set in this election right they're at 292 electoral votes uh give them Nevada give them Colorado give them New Mexico give them Georgia they're at 292 electoral votes more than the magic number of 270 even if you take away a state like Georgia for instance Democrats still maintain at 276 and so Democrats really aren't in a position where uh you know they're losing nationally with the current 538 forecast and so a good example of this would be a state like for instance that prior to the debate Donald Trump was not necessarily what I would call the Clear favorite but was still in the advantage right when you take a look at her numbers now KLA Harris is at 51% but right up until that debate the numbers started to turn away from KLA Harris in fact they're roughly at the highest point they've ever been on the 538 forecast because from the beginning Donald Trump has been in the advantage on the moment they started tracking these data points Donald Trump had a 59% chance of Victory and you can see that over time it started to Chip and Chip and Chip and K Harris started to get into a better position but even up until that debate Donald Trump had a 54% chance of Victory KLA Harris had just 46% across the state so Democrats now with KLA Harris being in the advantage in Georgia really only have the debate to thank for that there hasn't been some type of massive Reckoning on the national scale as to uh you know who's supporting Who besides the fact that there are voters in the swayable states that are changing their minds after seeing KLA Harris's debate performance not to mention that the national numbers of course impact some of these down ballot races if comml Harris tomorrow was to win the national popular vote by nine points she's winning Georgia and a whole lot of other states if it's a onepoint Advantage chances are she's losing Georgia and a whole lot of other states and so when you start to see kamla Harris have a impact and a positive one nationally it does translate to down ballot residual effects or uh swing state residual effects where KLA Harris is starting to do better and so I think this is something that we have seen roughly across the country right Arizona is now 50-50 whereas Donald Trump was in the advantage North Carolina is 50-50 whereas Donald Trump was in the advantage and the key Point here is the word was because it is at this point comml Harris at a 60 to 40 advantage that puts her well within a reasonable chance at winning almost all of these Battleground States if she can do everything correctly it's going to be close and this feels a lot more like the 2012 election in terms of how close the poll makes it actually feel but we will see what the actual result ends up being on Election night because it could feel a lot like 2020 where we're waiting for days for polls to be counted or for votes to be counted or we waiting on absentee ballots or waiting whatever it might be we are in for the long run here in this ction and things might not be immediately clear because of how competitive it is but the good news for KLA Harris is that she is coming into this after this debate using it to her Advantage I mean think about the media narrative and the media coverage so far of Donald Trump since he decided that he's not going to be running uh not rather not going to running not going to be debating any future debates right and so the mainstream media has picked that up the Democrats have started to turn this into a Donald Trump's scared type of moment they're even trying to bait him back into a second debate trying to uh poke and prod at his ego it might not work it might work though we don't really know what's going to happen with that part but Donald Trump probably isn't debating again which is good news for KLA Harris because it means that he has no real opportunity with all eyes on him no re opportunity with you know a focus on his candidacy or any of his ideas or anything that he can say directly to the people because between now and election day it is nearly just all crunch time it's about visiting state to state to state to state to Rally to Rally to Rally to Rally to voter to voter to voter to voter to door to door to door to door to election day and so that's how it's going to be it's going to be as fast-paced as I said it because that's where we are this election is so close to being over that any type of bump in the scale here benefiting KLA Harris is something that will have an impact on this election whether Republicans like it or not and this debate was in fact that and so I think we've seen a lot of the Republican and the mainstream media from the rightwing say that this has had no positive impact for KL Harris that nobody cares about this debate but what we are seeing here in terms of the data is in fact that there is a positive impact now I touched briefly on the betting markets and the money that KLA Harris raised in the aftermath of the debate and I have to say this right we talked about how she raised $47 million earlier on in this video but at the same time we do need to understand that this election has become so exceptionally expensive I mean we saw that Forbes before the 2024 election season got into full gear we saw this last year I covered it in 2023 they were projecting you know billions of dollars being spent across many many election races and typically speaking right both candidates in 2020 combined raised around a billion dollars just off of Grassroots organizing and small dollar donations and so it was at that time that we started to realize that this was at a point of no return the amount of money in politics was in fact going to be the most important and driving factor of the presidential race and for KLA Harris she's winning that battle $47 million after the debate matters right 47 million to spend in just seven Battleground States when the Biden swing state strategy from 2020 contained 10 11 12 Battleground States the Comm haris campaign is investing in the states that they need to invest in and focusing on the states they need to focus on they aren't using their money to spend in states that don't make sense right Donald Trump announcing just two days ago that he's holding another rally in the state of New York City I sorry in the state of New York specifically in New York City I mean we are at a point where the Trump campaign isn't holding as many rallies as KLA Harris or Tim Walls whereas the Donald Trump campaign sorry where it's the Comm Harris campaign they're doing a significant number of stops but they're also investing in the states right when Donald Trump goes to some of these rallies like he did one in New Jersey and he did another one in Bronx now he's doing another one in New York City these are things that don't help your candidacy right voters in Pennsylvania are not to in to your New York city Rally they're not going to your New York city Rally they're not making it up out of the state it is important to note that it is the most influential thing as to where you spend your money in a presidential Congressional gubernatorial whatever it might be any race in American politics where you spend your money is how you win an election and so for KLA Harris their campaign team seems to be very tapped into the fact that because they have so much money they can really flood the airwaves in these Battleground States they can expand the number of field offices in States like Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Arizona Georgia North Carolina and Nevada the seven states that they are slated starting after Labor Day they have already started to spend over $250 million a quarter of a billion dollars in advertisement spending on these Battleground States they are drowning Donald Trump in cash they are drowning Donald Trump's campaign by outspending and outpacing and out organizing and out fundraising they are at a point too where because of all the money they raised up until that Democratic Convention they could easily make it to November without running out of money even by investing in all of the states they need to invest in so KLA Harris not only now is building up where she is for this election but potentially for a future one I don't imagine there will be that much money raised after the 2024 election but all I can say is this the money that is being spent now and will continue to be spent is being spent in the states that matter KLA Harris's campaign team knows where to invest and it looks like they're using that seven State strategy to win the election and I genuinely believe it when I mean when I say this that I believe it's going to pay off based on where we are right now based on what we've seen and how the Democratic party has taken this debate and boosted their odds at winning nationally right taking the way that Democrats have taken where they were in some of these swing States and boosted their odds in those and so what I think has been just really really clear over the past 6 months is that the Biden Harris campaign turning into a Harris walls campaign they knew what they were doing they at least knew how to invest their money and they knew how to raise the money was the candidate at the top of the ticket the person that was going to bring them over the Finish Line with Biden Harris chances are no that's why Biden dropped out of the race but KLA Harris very seemingly much can do it and that's why you're starting to see people when they watch her on the debate stage when they watch her interact with former president Trump when they watch her just generally speaking at rallies right on advertisements online they take a liking to her we've seen her favorability rating completely rebound ever since she became the Democratic nominee right just right before uh we saw the swap out right around the time of July 15th we saw that Donald Trump had a higher favorability rating than that of KLA Harris today that is absolutely not the case in fact what we did see right before she became the Democratic nominee for president and was endorsed by Joe Biden when he dropped out of the race was that she hit one of her lowest favorability ratings in the entire history of her vice presidency so three and a half years hitting almost her lowest point right before she became the Democratic nominee and now today she is nearly tied even with her unfavorability rating and favorability rating she was down 15 20 points today she has narrowed that up and that only happens because the candidate at the top of the ticket has a campaign team that knows how to campaign that only happens when the person at the top of the ticket receives the support necessary to get across the finish line or get exceptionally close this election is no longer about the less or two evil situation that it turned into in the Biden versus Trump matchup voters are inspired on the left about kamla Harris in a way that they were not inspired about Hillary Clinton and in many ways even were not inspired about Joe Biden in the 2020 election and when we take a look at the political betting markets who people believe are going to win she actually wasn't doing as well as she is doing today when you take a look back at the history since around the time of the democratic convention around the time of the DNC she started to see a bump but after that it really started to dwindle poly Market started to turn away from K Harris and she ultimately never reached that majority back up until today when we saw her tick back up just actually yesterday in fact so yesterday and today all because of what the presidential debate and when I take a look at the national forecast with States like Georgia on the 538 forecast and North Carolina Within Reach Arizona Within Reach it seems to be a very realistic possibility that based on what we're seeing in the data that in this post debate bump should the election be held today Comm Harris could win 319 electoral votes that's a non-insignificant number and that would be a massive victory for vice president Harris I mean that would be rewriting the electoral map from the 2020 election when Democrats have largely been focused on playing defense right when we take a look at those states that Democrats are investing in with commet Harris it very much is not taking anything for granted they're focusing on Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania all states that Biden won they're focusing on Arizona Georgia and Nevada all states that Biden won and the only swing state they're focusing on that they lost in the 2020 election is the state of North Carolina Democrats aren't heavy investing in States like Florida or Texas or Ohio or Iowa and in a perfect world maybe they would be but they are realizing to meet this moment they need to solidify their base in those seven Battleground states that truly will determine the future of this nation states like New Hampshire and Virginia and Minnesota and Colorado and New Mexico States the Democrats you know Republicans rather would love to invest in but aren't investing as much in as in the seven Battleground States because Democrats know they're going to win there and so do Republicans too same thing with Ohio and Iowa and Florida and Texas Democrats would love to invest there but Republicans know they're going to win there so they don't need to spend much money there and Democrats know Republicans are going to win there even in their perfect scenario they would be winning there too and so KLA Harris's debate performance doesn't exactly shake up the race in a way that means all of a sudden she has guaranteed the presidency but what she did on that debate stage was completely halted any conversation around her momentum ending but rather expanded on that momentum that came from the announcement that came from the VP announcement that came from the convention and now is coming from the debate and she's setting herself up to a Pathway to Victory where she's gaining in terms of overall odds her polling numbers are starting to do better and while I do believe in around a month I wouldn't be shocked if we got sets of polls that showed this race just as close as it is today because I don't think we're on track for k Harris to have a blowout election I still believe between now and November not much really is going to change but there is in fact a benefit of being up 60 to 40 instead of 51 to 49 and KLA Harris's campaign and herself will know this very well on Election Day as the results come in as we start to see what happens in these Battleground States as we start to see who's the eventual winner in the presidential election because what we know about our presidential race this time is sure it absolutely is close but when you are moving the needle even slightly it matters when you look at States like Georgia that would just decided by 11,000 votes in the 2020 election when you take a look at States like Arizona that were decided by roughly a similar amount of electoral votes when you take a look at States like Pennsylvania that were decided by just under a 100,000 votes in a state with millions of Voters same thing in Wisconsin same thing in Michigan you know that every little moment good or bad matters in a presidential election and Democrats know that all too well and so KL Harris right now expanding her advantage on the National 538 forecast isn't too much of a shock we saw in the immediate aftermath that voters did positively respond to KLA Harris's debate performance but now we have the actual quantifying numbers to prove that the forecast here has improved for KLA Harris and has set her up for a higher chance of Victory than she has ever been in the past two weeks which really goes to show that this debate while seemingly marginal on the grand scheme of things actually does make an impact all in favor of Vice President Harris so thank you guys so much for watching this video make sure to comment down suggestions below subscribe on the left if you haven't already and check out the Instagram and Twitter at the top left of the screen there's also a Discord server if you to go ahead and join on the screen there's a video you can watch and then a playlist for my 2024 presidential election annalysis videos again thank you guys so much for watching and I will see you all tomorrow