Texas Democrats Within STRIKING DISTANCE in 2024 Senate Race

hey guys welcome back to today's video today is Monday September 9th 2024 and today we are going to be talking about the state of Texas in a Battleground Senate race that many people have yet to realize is actually coming to be one of the closest Senate races on the Republican side the Republicans might be able to hold on to in this coming November election now Texas is a state that really hasn't seen much polling across the presidential or even to the senate or house races that are honestly quite important for the future of our democracy and the future of this nation the of Texas has long been heralded as the Republican party's California for it being a very strong Republican state you look back at the beginning of the 21st century Republicans won uh the state of Texas by 21 points Democrats only won California by 12 and so at this period of time States like California and Texas very populous ones at the time the two most populous states if we take out New York which eventually would become the fourth most populous state today point being though Texas and California together were these electoral Giants the Democrats and Republicans could routinely rely on and that maintained itself for quite some time through 2004 Texas became a bush plus 23 State and California became a Democrat plus 10 State then in 2008 Democrats won California by 24 and John McCain won Texas by 12 and then things s sort of evened out in 2012 Obama won California by 23 the Republicans won Texas by 16 but then as time went on Texas became the narrower State whereas California only became more democratic now Texas now in the most recent election went to uh Donald Trump by March Mar of 5.6% not at all a massive margin and one that I think Republicans really look at with concern and worry not for this election but 2028 and Beyond and they do so with reason because as I showed you Texas has taken a pretty significant turn to the left in Just Around 8 years from 2012 Romney won it by 16 today the last margin of victory for a republican was just 5.6% if you average out those differences and the trend line continues comml Harris would come within a well whopping margin a victory uh of winning the state of Texas which would be phenomenal for the Democratic party but also something that would be entirely unprecedented now I'm not going to say that KLA Harris is going to win the state of Texas but the senate race here is one the Democrats are now in a far more winable place than they were before now I promise you I came up with the title of this video before I saw this article talking about Colin houred um shrinking this lead here um and I think it's actually quite relevant because what we are seeing is that Colin AED is a representative from the state of Texas a Democrat that had long been seen as someone who really can't uh win this race someone who seen as a sacrif lamb in the same way I would see even see I even saw people like John oof being mentioned back in Georgia uh when I mentioned the article I actually meant the Newsweek one using the word Striking Distance because I promise you that is something that is uh pretty common in discussing polls like this because it is true it is true that Texas is narrowing up to a point where Colin AR the Democrat who again was long seen as this sacrificial lamb for the party who is now coming within a point where he could even win this thing now I don't think he's going to beat Ted Cruz as of today there's a lot of work to do and there's not a lot of time to do it but the narrowing of this race really goes to show that Ted Cruz as a senator is quite unpopular to a point where Democrats are now in a position where they can actually win a Texas Senate race and the last time Democrats even got close was again with Senator Ted Cruz and it's because he's uniquely unpopular which these polls actually show us is that Ted Cruz is someone who voters really don't adore across the state granted Democrats are benefiting from the fact that KLA Harris comes within four points in the state of Texas which in its own right is a Monumental feat for the Democratic nominee largely because Texas being narrow than it would be in 2020 would point in every direction to the country moving in favor of K Harris and her winning the presidency and while I'm not going to say here and and sit here and tell you that this election is at it all wraps I think we're at a 55 45 margin in terms of odds and victory right now with k Harris being in the advantage but still anybody's game still very much a very strong possibility that Donald Trump is reelected this Texas number is still alarming because if Donald Trump does in fact win reelection and he loses uh ground in Texas Ground practically anywhere would be a telling sign that some of these states especially Texas are on the radar for Democrats in the future and well well within reach in future elections if not this one but the reason why the Texas Senate race here is also something that comes in as important is because what we find in the senate race is that col Now read while slightly running behind that of KLA Harris Ted Cruz runs two points behind Donald Trump now the reason for this is because voters in Texas Republicans Democrats Independents largely disapprove of Ted Cruz Republic still the majority of them approve of his job performance as Senator but his approval rating is very very poor compared especially to some other swing state senators you can people see people like shered brown who have an approval rating above 50% you can see other people across the country not necessarily just in Ohio John tester in Montana largely approved of as the Democratic senator from a trump plus 15 State Ted Cruz being a Republican senator from a trump plus six state is disapproved Statewide and we saw this in full force like I mentioned in 2018 when better oror then also a representative from the Democratic party who was long seen as a sacrificial lamb for the state party somebody who is not going to win the senate race but was trying to give Ted Cruz a run for his money and so he did in the senate race results Ted Cruz ended up defeating B roor by a margin of less than three points 2.6% across the state of Texas this is a state that Donald Trump two years prior had been able to win by nine points over Hillary Clinton so if that speaks to the level of unpopularity that Ted Cruz has against uh in comparison to that of Donald Trump it is quite Monumental and better work I will say was a once- in a generation candidate for Texas at the time he very much lost a lot of his electoral prowess after the 2020 Democratic nomination stin where he ran for president he said we're going to take AR15s away and sure quotes can be taken in and out of context but in a state like Texas he was long seen as more of a Centrist more moderate Democrat when he ran for Senate now he's seen as more extreme and more leftwing and to be fair maybe his policy positions haven't necessarily changed but the voters opinions of him absolutely did and so Colin I read very much much has been trying to kind of replicate what better work did in 2018 and for a while it looked like there wasn't much moving and that's largely because Donald Trump was doing so well against Joe Biden in the matchup against uh against him in the state of Texas we saw across the state in the final set of polls before uh Joe Biden dropped out of the race Trump was ahead by nine and 10 points that was a four to five point Improvement off of where he was in 2020 and that was largely in line with the improvements we were seeing for Trump against Biden across a number of other states now when you take a look at the new average it's a bit misleading it says Trump is up by seven points but I want you to take a look at that third poll that's being taken into account a poll taking all the way back in January that shows Trump with a 13-point lead any recent poll shows Trump ahead by five points or four points giving the average here roughly Trump plus 4.5 largely in line with that of what we're seeing from the hill and Emerson College not to mention largely in line with the shifts we are seeing in performance in comp in comparison in comparing Trump versus Biden North Carolina being a perfect example Trump is ahead against Biden by 5.4% against Harris that lead is 0.7% nearly an identical shift of what we would see in those Texas numbers of trump vers Biden translating to that of Trump versus Harris Comm Harris uh is behind in Texas by 4.5% but when it comes down to the Senate polls again we're looking at data points that in the era of KLA Harris's candidacy really show good results uh for that of Colin aled now this University of Texas poll I will say I approach with caution I think the name ID for both of these candidates is far higher than what was being L on I do not believe that we're talking 40 to 45% of the state that is willing to vote for a Democrat also knows who Colin a is these numbers don't necessarily add up entirely and what we have seen pretty consistently is that in a lot of the recent even some internal numbers that we're seeing Ted Cruz's campaign and the nrsc is also getting quite worried given that they're funding uh Texas again we're seeing that colar is running roughly ahead of that of KLA Harris not to mention the fact that across the state we have seen colara do a lot better in terms of enthusiasm and support largely because he is dis distancing himself from the top of the ticket which is quite a smart move if you're asking anyone who knows Texas politics now I still think that Texas is a state that we could also see an overestimation for Republicans right now the RCP average has Ted Cruz ahead by roughly six points if you take out that 10-point average you're looking at roughly a four-point Advantage roughly a half-point improvement from that of uh of KLA Harris Statewide but I want us to take a look back at election polls not from 2022 because I think they were actually quite accurate which would still be a warning sign for Republicans should Ted Cruz only win it by four points on the same ballot as Donald Trump that should be immensely worrying but it could get even worse if we see anything similar to that of 2018 and I'm not talking that you know we would have Ted Cruz and better work be as close but the perception on Texas in 2018 was very different because of the data we were given in the final stretch of the campaign very high quality pollsters released data points Emerson College even the one that shows Colin Al losing by four today showed better work losing by five after all Ted Cruz did end up winning by three points but under three points and that was a shift of two and a half points would be Monumental especially if Ted Cruz was to win this election shifting Emerson by the same amount by roughly one point or two points we also saw Quinnipiac University in CBS News and yugov they said Cru plus 9 and Cru plus 6 respectively and the final poll that was taken was from the New York Times in Sienna College which is arguably one of the stronger polls we have seen across the nation they showed Ted Cruz up by eight again he won by 2.6 and so this narrowing of Texas and one that severely overestimated Republicans to a point where Ted Cruz was up by seven points on average on Election Day only to win by 2.8 that is a margin a shift of 4.2% if you take the Emerson College data points the most recent poll taken in the state shift it by four points or the University of Houston poll which has Ty Cruz ahead by two points and shift that by four col now R theoretically would be the next senator from the state of Texas and while I don't think that's necessarily going to happen we're coming to a point where Texas might be the next state the Democrats should invest in and the data we are seeing from it is absolutely indicating that that is the case maybe Texas should have been the target instead of some of these other states and it isn't really just me who's taking a look at it me we can take a look at some of these models here split ticket has their 2024 Senate model probabilities and the one thing that I would say is quite worrisome for uh for Democrats on this map and on this model here is States like Ohio where Democrats have just a 45% chance of winning everybody else has been saying that shared Brown's going to win this is the first model to come out and say no he's not he's not the favorite to win in the state of Ohio and it makes sense right running alongside that same ballot of that of Donald Trump you're seeing that Bernie Moreno might just be carried over that Finish Line even though he's the worst candidate that Republicans could have ran Democrats have been really having a good luck when it comes down to lack lesser GOP nominees but Ohio just might be too R of a state for Democrats to crack another state that should be worrisome for Democrats especially worrying is the state of Montana where Democrats right now have a 26% chance of Victory Tim sheii had a 74% chance this is where Republicans really dodged bullet they had Donald Trump endorsed Tim sheii went against Matt rosadale the incumbent US representative from one of the Montana districts actually was the nominee for Senate back in 2018 he wanted to run again after Donald Trump endorsed Tim sheii he dropped out a week later cleared the field for the nomination John tester had to face off against and is facing off against a very strong Republican opponent and so John tester at 26% I think again should be that raising of the alarm Bell because also when you look at Texas bringing it back to this point of the video colell Read has just a 6% chance less of winning in the state of Texas and so their odds are roughly even in the grand scheme of things negligible at most and so if Texas and Montana are roughly in the same reach Democrats are investing 50 million plus in Montana maybe they should do this same in the state of Texas now this also could be made an argument in a state like Florida where we're seeing Rick Scott in a uniquely interesting position where de uh debie uh marar soow I completely botched the name I think so I apologize for that point being though 25% Democrats out a 1/4 odds there roughly 1/5th odds in Texas roughly 1/4 odds in Montana and so Democrats are investing tens of millions into Montana not much into Florida at all not much at all into the state of Texas and it would be quite interesting to see if these states end up on the Democratic party's radar for the final two months because it's very possible that they realize that hey maybe the pathway to the majority no longer lies through Montana and maybe it took them months to realize this because arguably it looked a lot better for Democrats 3 months ago in Montana even with Joe Biden on the ballot but now Texas and Florida might be on that radar and specific to Texas the data points we were seeing out of the state really go to show not only lackluster trends for Republicans right now but in the future whereas Florida this might just be an indicator that Rick Scott who was an unpopular Governor ended up being an unpopular Senator maybe this is a one time the Democrats can shine through through Florida Texas has seen consistent growth for the Democratic Party in the state and that's why I think it should worry Republicans and so I will finish off by saying I do not believe Texas is going to flip this election cycle I don't think that KLA Harris is going to Surge to victory in the state of Texas and I don't think that we are going to see Colin alred win either but I don't think that it's a done deal yet I think the presidential race is going to go to Trump uh in the state of Texas I think that is sort of something that I've come to understand that Ted Cruz will in fact underperform that of Donald Trump but if KLA Harris and the Democratic party at large can narrow up Texas to two to three points that's Monumental not only for the future but in this election because what we have seen when you take a look right at the University of Houston the data points there are actually not insubstantial for that of KLA Harris in the state of Texas you can take a look at the presidential margin University of Houston uh actually sorry didn't use didn't do a poll but you can see that the shift there is significant what I do find to be also the most important part part of this all is that the hill and Emerson College what they find in their data is that Comm Harris and Donald Trump have Universal Name ID everybody knows who they are when it comes down to Texas there are more people who are undecided but there are Trump voters out there that are refusing to say they're voting for Ted Cruz Colin AED has more of a Name ID problem than any of these people that have been mentioned thus far Ted Cruz Kell Harris Donald Trump Ted Cruz has been the senator from this state for over a decade and so it's important to note that Ted Cruz has the name ID he's well known and disliked across the state Colin arred still has that opportunity and when you take a look at favorability ratings which isn't something that I would say is going to win Colin Arwood the election uh you know because I don't think he's going to win the election but if he does end up winning the election this will play a major role in it Colin arred is pretty much universally liked right you take a look at the data points across the state sometimes up double digits in terms of net and perceived approval rating that's strong for Colin ared because he's not someone who's been elected Statewide before because he's not someone who's ran Statewide before these are good numbers and perceptions that voters would like to have about candidates that they want to vote for and if he gives them a reason to votee for him which I'm sure this campaign in the final two months will absolutely try to do voters are going to be more inclined to do so because they don't hate col nud in the way they strongly dislike Ted Cruz and so I'd be interested to see what this final margin of Victory will be for Ted Cruz in Texas maybe there won't be a margin of victory for Ted Cruz and maybe colar red I will admit looking at this from two months out from the election this is something that very clearly should have been on the Democratic party's radar for months on end should have been investment should have been a lot of uh intentionality into how and when they did this but it's never too late to invest in a race because at the endend of the day what we're looking at right now is that Texas is far closer than what Republicans would hope for and chances are Ted Cruz will underperform Donald Trump's margin of Victory which means there's a possibility that Democrats win the senate race in Texas and the path through the majority might not go through Montana but rather through the Lone Star State so thank you guys so much for watching this video make sure to comment down suggestions below subscribe on the left if you haven't already and check out the Instagram and Twitter at the top left of the screen there's also a Discord server if you to go ahead and join on the screen there's a video you can watch then playlist for my 2024 senate election analysis videos again thank you guys so much for watching and I will see you all later today