College Football Week 1 BEST BETS | Texas A&M vs Notre Dame | Miami (FL) vs Florida | Numb3rs

Season Intro welcome into the first edition of our new gambling podcast where we are going to be talking all things college football and NFL for this 2024 2025 season before I jump into any of the games I want to discuss real quickly uh who I am our strategy here and what we're going to be doing on this show my name is Dylan leak I have been in the sports betting realm since all the way back in 2009 so I've been doing this for almost 15 years and I've been doing it successfully for a long time time here with documented records picking above 60% in college football over the last five seasons as well as the NFL all my picks are tracked and graded they're posted on my website daily uh and they are timestamped above so go ahead and check that out at www. Dillan leag sports.com if you want full writeups here obviously I post these videos as well but all my official bets are posted on my website um as of right now everything is free um and so I've just here to give good information I'm not going to be giving 50 picks a week I'm going to be basing these based on you know it's it's all it's all math right we called this show numbers that was the show name we wanted to use because we are using numbers we're looking to bet numbers we're taking the best number we're looking at Power Rankings we're looking at who has the edge we're looking at implied odds and we're finding where do we have an edge and then that's going to determine how much we want to bet and so just for sake of knowing this when I place these bets we have four bet sizes and we're basing it based on our bank roll size so we have 0.5% that's going to be a onear play 1% of the bank roll will be a two star 1 and a half% will be a three star and 2% will be a four star we don't ever bet two more than 2% of our bank roll and so for for purposes of understanding that right you have a $10,000 bankroll if I give a onear play it's a $50 bet obviously that's going to change as the bank roll changes and that's why we use that so as the bank roll increases a a onestar bet is going to be more when our bank roll is bigger than it is when it's going to be smaller so our bet size is always adjusting but our percentage always stays the same with all that said we are about to jump into week one of the college football slate so I hope you guys enjoy this podcast I'm here to help I'm here to discuss you know comment below let me know what you think about the games I like to have discussions about this stuff I think it's fascinating I'm just a fan of college football and of B NFL in general I I've been doing this successfully for a long time but you can never uh stop learning and so if you got any any advice anything you want to give in the comments um let me know what you think of the videos who what games you want me to look at and all those things uh tell me if you enjoy the breakdowns all those things make sure if you're new to the channel like And subscribe as well we have a we full weekly podcast we do a Sports Talk Show so check that out as well and I do weekly videos breaking down all the major topics and sports trying to expand this channel into uh new Realms and and increase our following so thank you guys for tuning in for this first episode enjoy it uh always bet responsibly never bet more than you have and always do it with a fun attitude don't make it too serious even if you're trying to make money at it uh there are bigger things in life than winning or losing a bet that's all I got for this intro enjoy this video and uh enjoy my picks for this year and enjoy week one of college football all right so game number one we're going to Texas A&M vs Notre Dame look at is the Miami Hurricanes who are traveling to Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators Miami comes into this game a 2 and 1 Half Point favorite although we've seen some moves in this game back and forth on the line here total on the game sits at 54 at the moment uh this is the first meeting since 2019 between these two teams a game in which Florida came out Victorious they've only played seven times since 1988 when we look at Miami last season they started the year 4-0 before the disastrous loss at home to Georgia ATT a game that all they had to do was take a KNE and win the game Mario Chris the ball did not do that a fumble in Su and we know what happened next Georgia Tech went 80 yards and scored a touchdown As Time expired and ended Miami's undefeated run and they kind of fell apart down the stretch after that lost to North Carolina lost to NC State lost to Florida State lost to Louisville now a lot of those teams were solid uh ranked teams but then lost the bowl game to Rutgers finished the season one game over 500 had a below 500 record in ACC play and now all of a sudden Mario Chris Ball feeling a little bit of heat on that seat on the other side the Gators in a kind of similar fashion started off the season three and one 5- two just needing one win in their final five games to get bow eligible could not do it lost out down the stretch five straight the Georgia Arkansas LSU Missouri and Florida State not the easiest schedule but the worst one being that November 4th loss at home to Arkansas in overtime a three-point loss that probably cost them a bowl game and now because of that Billy Napier comes into this season on the hot seat and he is much more squarely on the hot seat than Chris Ball I don't think that's very fair when you look at this Florida schedule this year it's extremely difficult probably not probably it is the most difficult schedule in the country uh according to the preseason rankings and projections and if Nate beer is unable to make a bowl game he may not make it to year four this is a big game for both schools Miami brought in all of this talent in the transfer portal right I mean this is a team with Chris ball that has an unlimited budget right Chris Ball has Daddy's credit card he can swipe it on whatever he wants and they did that in the portal they wanted a defensive lineman who was the 69th ranked player in the portal here's $900,000 we'll take you come on over right he did that with a lot of guys so you come in this season with the highest paid or second highest paid roster in college football you paid your quarterback a rumored $3.5 million a guy who did not even take his team to a bowl game last year at Washington State albeit he's he's a solid college quarterback and you go out and lose your first game to a team whose win total is projected below six they're not supposed to make a bowl game it's it would be a very very bad look for Miami for them to come out and lose this game Florida on the other hand has such a difficult schedule this season they just cannot afford lost early so they lose this game early and and it's making a bowl game is going to be damn near impossible so this is a massive game for both schools in week one right and so we're looking at who has an advantage here you look at the Miami offense versus the Florida defense I think the the game plan for Miami is simple here um when you look at the depth chart that was released for Florida right they have basically their entire defensive line coming in at over 300 lb right their their nose tackle was listed this is no joke on the dep chart came out 449 pounds right so Miami if I'm Miami looking at that and looking at how Florida played last year against Utah in the opener where they just ran out of gas they were sucking wind in the altitude they looked completely out of shape I don't believe that that Flor strength and conditioning staff does a very good job if I'm Miami I am pushing tempo right you have the guys to do it um you know you look at this Miami roster obviously I just mentioned it cam ward he was initially uh from San Antonio right he played at UIW in FCS school and then got to transfer to Washington State when his OC or when his head coach took the OC job there you know had a statistically good year last year at Washington State ends up transferring now to Miami for a ridiculous amount of money over $3 million you know is he worth $3 million absolutely not is he a big upgrade from Tyler van djk last year yes he is so this is going to help right Mark Fletcher's back he's going to play a ton they got the Martinez kid who was a bcow for Oregon State last year you know just loads of talent Restrepo back he's one of the best wide receivers in all of college football I think he's going to be a good Pro in the slot um the offensive line is good um the only question uh kind of is is they lost their their all World Center and he's kind of the communicator of that group that's going to be a position that needs to be filled they're going into a hostile environment here in Gainesville that'll be something to monitor here but if if if they can manage that new piece there and the fact that they have a lot of transfers I think they're going to torch this Florida defense right like I just don't see a path where Florida's getting a ton of stops unless Miami just hurts themselves unless cam W's turning the ball over or the offensive line is struggling with the noise and Gainesville but I really think Miami is going to have a lot of success here this Florida defense uh you know was if we're being honest they were terrible at the end of the last year right first seven games they gave up 20 points per game they were pretty solid the last five games just under 40 per game it almost doubled almost 500 yards a game um you know basically from the first seven games to the last five they gave up a 100 more pass yards per game so they really really struggled from a defensive perspective down the stretch when they played quality Talent right all those teams that I listed with the exception of Arkansas who also torched him had really good you know top 15 top 10 Talent well Miami's got top five Talent this year right and so it's about is Miami clicking early did Mario Chris Ball do enough here um and if he did and he has these guys playing together and not as individuals Miami is going to score at will on Florida if Miami is turning the ball over or they are you know fragmented and playing individual football and cam word's trying to be Superman out there then maybe Florida has a chance to hang in there but I think Miami is going to have a lot of success on the other side the Florida offense versus the Miami defense Graham Merz last season had his best season of his career obviously he was with Wisconsin uh for four years and then transferred to Florida last season I did not expect him to have a good season at all but when you look at the numbers he did 20 touchdowns that just three picks over a 71 72% completion percentage um you know I I have I had no idea who that was when I was watching him last year he actually looked pretty good but you also think about the fact that now he lost Ricky pea who was his big threat downfield that's a massive loss for Merz kind of his go-to guy I I think he's going to be a really really good Pro Pierce all that is and then you look at the a DOT for Graham merch last year and he just did not push the ball down field whatsoever had a 5.9 average dep the Target or a DOT last year only 29% of his total throws went beyond 10 yards so he just did not throw the ball downfield and the few times he did do it a lot of them went to Ricky piol and so with him gone what is Graham merch going to be are we going to see more of a Wisconsin like Graham Merz with less weapons I mean you look at some of the other spots on this team right the Florida run G Run game they lost they lose their top back in in Trevor etn who goes to Georgia um Montreal Johnson was supposed to be one of their you know go-to backs this year he had knee surgery in the off season he was on a treadmill walking for the first time a couple weeks back is he going to play in this game I don't think so we'll see the one guy they do get back Eugene Wilson he has a ton of speed has the potential to be a star will merch be able to get him the ball down field not sure uh I'm interested to see if this o line can hold up against a lot of Talent on the Miami defensive front because if they they cannot then this is going to be a long day for Florida uh in this game the one area Miami's defense is susceptible though is the secondary so if the offensive line is able to give Graham Merz enough time to throw and Eugene Wilson is able to get open they also brought in uh IND who was a a teammate of Graham merch from Wisconsin if those guys can get open downfield and he has time to throw maybe Florida has some success first this Miami defense but I'm not I'm just not a believer it I'm really leaning Miami in this game I think that they're just too talented and you know I like Billy Napier going into Florida but I just haven't seen enough from him to think that he's going to be able to out duel cryst Ball by the amount by that much when the talent Gap is that big between these two schools yes it's in Florida yes it's a true Road game the first game of the season for Miami that's tough but I just don't I just don't see Florida finding a way to win this game outright if they do the wheels are going to fall off for Miami but from a power rating perspective I I make this game five and a half and we're laying less than a field goal and so I'm going to go with Miami in this spot we're going to take it for one unit uh I'm sorry two units so that's a 1% play two unit play on Miami minus the two and a half as always shop around get the best number do not lay three in this game okay we are three is a key number especially on the road here we are laying 2 and a halfus 110 that is the prevailing number that's available everywhere go ahead and get that do not lay a bad number do not lay minus three but best bet number one going to be the Miami Hurricanes minus the two and a half over the Florida Gator game number two I'm going to preview for one of my Best Bets we're Florida vs. Miami (FL) going to look at probably the best matchup of the week as number seven Notre Dame the fighting Irish travel to Kyle Field for a night game under the lights against the Texas A&M agies the agies despite being ranked 13 slots low than Notre Dame come in as a 2 and a half or a three-point favorite depending on where you shop total on this game sits right now around 46 we peaked in the low 50s in this game we've seen oneway traffic on the total so I can tell you from a uh sharp betting perspective the total was steamed under and it continues to be taken even at worst secondary numbers so that should tell you something this is probably going to be a low-scoring game um it's important then to get the best number when you're looking at this game um and you look at this this matchup this is the first meeting between Notre Dame and Texas A&M since back in 2001 that game was also in College Station a game A&M W 24-3 obviously new coach for Texas A&M and Mike Elco comes in a former defensive coordinator uh at Texas A&M he was the head coach at Duke the last couple seasons and the top story line in this matchup for week one is that he will be facing his former starting quarterback in Riley Leonard Riley Leonard was was the starting quarterback for Duke last season got injured at the end of last season and missed uh basically the the last couple games of the Season had to have season ending surgery but he's back and he's healthy and he's ready to go the last seven times that the Irish have played SEC schools the game has been decided by one score so we have a lot of close games under Dame has played against SEC teams this is the first time they've played an SEC opponent since 2019 where they faced Georgia I believe that was the first game of the year and they lost that game 17 to 23 lo and behold a single digit loss uh single possession loss but you look at these two teams Marcus Freeman LED his team to 10 wins last season uh you know had a couple of bad losses the worst being the Ohio State game they played at home a game that they had Ohio State in a fourth and 18 on the final drive were unable to get a stop and allow them to score basically on the final play of Regulation lost that game whoever scheduled Notre Dames whoever did Notre game schedule last year should absolutely be fired the most brutal schedules I've seen in college football in a long long time four consecutive weeks against ranked teams two of the four Road games played an Ireland week one didn't have a buy until week 10 it was pathetic whoever created that schedule played Clemson on the road late in the season so hopefully this year they have a a much easier schedule they'll find more success on the other side we have A&M obviously as I mentioned new coach new head coach in Mike Elco A&M comes off a s-6 season they finished s and5 in the regular season lost in the balll game to Oklahoma State so not a great year obviously Jimbo fer gets fired with a few games left uh they battled injuries they're starting quarterback Connor Wagman only started three games last year before getting injured or four games rather Max Johnson stepped in as the starting quarterback he's already transferred out of there to North Carolina they're hoping Wegman can stay healthy this year when we look at these two teams in their current form though and we look at the A&M defense taking on the Notre Dame offense let's look at the most impactful match up in this game and that is the offensive line of Notre Dame versus the defensive line of Texas A&M and we think about the players from Notre Dame perspective they had one of the best offensive lineman in college football he was the top offensive lineman off the board in the NFL draft and their left tackle in Joe a unbelievable talent and he is gone well the supposed replacement Charles jsaw tore his pet Toral and is out for the season so now that's a two level drop here you don't not only lose your starting all World left tackle but you lose his backup as well so they have a brand new essentially third level left tackle starting here that's a concern especially against A&M's Edge rushers uh they have a a freshman starting at left guard and Anthony knp and look this is just a wildly young offensive line here right they have six combined career starts on that offensive line none of them are together as a group so this is a brand new group playing together for the first time and they're playing under the lights at Kyle Field which is one of if not the toughest places to play I'm a longhorn fan I hate saying that but it's the truth of the matter it's a tough tough tough place to play A&M not always a great football team they always have great and a great environment to play in I'll give them that so we look at this A&M defense against that offense and it's just Elite right they got Nick scr or skirton the number one Edge in the portal 26% pass rush win rate freakish speed sets The Edge well right he's going to be probably a top 15 pick in the NFL draft next year Shamar Stewart uh supposedly has gotten a lot better in the offseason he had a 14% pass rush uh 40% pressure rate on pass rush snaps last year um DJ Hicks he was the number one defensive lineman in the 2023 class I mean look you just look at the the talent level all around here and it's just right they have talent all over the defensive front and then you look even last year with a a subpar coaching staff they had a 22% stuff rate and a 15% Havoc rate created it was an elite defensive line last season and this is with bad coaching now you bring in a guy who is going to get the most out of his guys with a super talented Bunch this is a really really bad matchup for Notre Dame huge Edge for A&M and the trenches here on this side of the ball um you know the the the only question is you know can Riley Leonard do enough with his legs to avoid some of this pressure because we know A&M's going to get pressure but when you look at Riley Leonard the one thing he was Elite at is avoiding sacks last season 42% of his dropbacks at Duke last year he was pressured on however he was only sacked on 10% of those dropbacks so of those pressures right so you're talking about on on almost half of snaps he was getting pressured and only 10% of that half of those half of snaps was he actually sacked he is elusive getting away from defensive fronts finds ways to to prolong the play now the one thing that he doesn't do well is he does not find guys down the field when he does get out of the pocket so that's kind of a key here I think if you're watching this game and you're you're not betting on it or if you are betting on it and you're trying to gauge how the game is going and it's close early if Riley Leonard is getting out of the pocket but he's not completing passes down on the field it's not going to matter it's not going to be enough A&M will wear them down last season Riley Leonard only completed 47% of his passes that traveled 15 plus yards when he was outside of the pocket meaning when he got out of the pocket got out of raate from pressure and the play was kind of a backyard type of play and a lot of times wide receivers break open during this time he completed less than 50% of his passes if that Trend continues tomorrow night they will not have success offensively but if Riley Leonard breaks contain and he's throwing the ball down field and you're seeing him have a lot of success complete balls and getting out and scrambling then A&M could be in a little bit of trouble they have to contain the edge they cannot let Riley Leonard get out of the pocket that's where he's going to hurt you um Mike Elco knows that better than anybody so we I have to assume A&M is going to have a good game plan so Ian big big Advantage A&M here uh I think they're going to to dominate not Dame's offense the question then is on the other side of the ball can anam's offense do enough against under Dame's defense The Edge definitely on that side of the ball goes to Notre Dame you look at& M&M brings in a new offensive coordinator and Colin Klein he actually very surprised that he went to A&M I thought he would stay at Kansas state which was his Alma moer but he comes over to A&M it's a big pickup I think he's a really good offensive coordinator we'll see what kind of impact he has this early I think it's going to take more time than just a couple games here um I do think he will have some impact on this team early on they're obviously going to be running a lot more creative things you're going to see more motion more play action more pre- snap um movement right Jimbo's offense was very predictable and old school and line it up in run and run formation and Pass and Pass formation and it makes it really hard on your quarterback so I think you're going to see a lot more creativity in the offense from A&M that will make them have more success over the course of this season than they did in the past couple years under Jimbo I do believe that is the case problem is in Camp we've heard that the offense has not been great right that's been the reports out of A&M Camp wide receiver have not performed well there's been a lot of drops um you know you look at at the pass catchers Noah Thomas Jada Walker moose mohammad's back um they have a young kid in Terry busy who was supposed to play cornerback and they flipped him to wide receiver so that might be a hint that they don't love what they have at Wide Receiver right now so that does worry me a little bit about A&M's offense pushing the ball down the field um but it starts with Connor Wagman and it's all about if he can stay healthy right he's got talent um as I said you know Colin Klein's going to help him from a schematic perspective uh you know you look at the running back room they had a big loss their their most explosive guy out for the season um with an injury they they do have some depth with moss and Williams in the back field but the o line is my biggest concern for randoms offense and it's especially a concern going against a really really good Notre Dame front right last year A&M did not move anybody off the ball they were 80th in EPA per run uh they did get a few trans first they have improved this offensive line a little bit but they have not figured out a legit starting five um you know I think especially on that right side there's been some fluidity they don't really know who's going to start you're going to see some substitutions on that right side of that line uh then you look at the other side again for Notre Dame their defensive front really really good right this is a defense that was Elite last year one of the best defenses in the country they're deep they're talented they've got you know an All-American in Howard cross Riley Mills is Back Jack Kaiser they got guys all over the field who can play five talented linebackers they have they have you know Benjamin Morrison the gersi award winner last year Talent all over the board is good for Notre Dame here's the thing you're in game one if you're Notre Dame you have a new quarterback you have a head coach who I don't think very highly of in Marcus Freeman and you have a coach in Mike ELO who I do think very highly of I think A&M's defense is going to dominate Notre Dame's offense and they're not going to have a lot of success which means can A&M find enough on the offensive side of the ball to cover this number and I think they can we've seen better teams in this Notre Dame team come into Kyle Field and have issues especially at night that's the kicker for me right we're laying less than a field goal at a night game at Kyle Field it just feels like the number is too low we saw this get up to to three and a half at one point it did get steamed right back down so the the resistance has come at three and a half or three but less than three I just cannot make a case to not lay this it's just too much value here A&M has been Elite at home at night in K Kyle Field they have this team has improved from last year yes it's their first start for uh you know first game for for new head coach I get that he's been an A&M before they have a some consistency at quarterback their defense is really good it's going to be loud as heck there I I cannot get away from laying the points here we're going to make a two-unit play here on Texas S&M minus the two and a half again do not lay the three lay the two and a half or pass because this number uh that key number of three is going to be really important when you're talking about a total that has dropped almost seven points and continues to Trend downward with these two not great offenses against some very good defenses it's going to be a very low-scoring game the number matters find a two and a half you can find him still at multiple books get two and a half uh lay the two and a half with A&M 2 unit play on the Aggies and that's coming from a longhorn so that should tell you the strength of this play in week one the next game we're going to look at is Georgia Tech Georgia Tech vs. Georgia State coming off a big upset win over number 10 ranked Florida State in Ireland last week in week zero and they welcome in the Georgia State Panthers Georgia Tech is a 21 and a half Point favorite in this game total on the game sits around 55 55 a half it's a night game in Atlanta Georgia as I mentioned Georgia Tech coming off that big win they walked it off first the simal it was 21 all following a screen pass on a third and long and Georgia Tech was able to get the ball back into field goal range and walk it off with a 45 yard field goal when you look at this Georgia Tech Team I was on them last week against Florida State uh you know I got a number a little bit higher than what was available to the public because I got it early in the summer um but I was high on this Georgia Tech Team when I looked at them in the preview I like ains King a lot really think Brent key uh does a great job there with the yellow jackets did a heck of a job last year getting them to a bowl game uh nobody really expected that had some big time wins one at uh top 25 ranked Miami one against top 25 ranked North Carolina had some big moments in his first year and obviously a big win to start off his second year um now I will say the defensive coordinator the new defensive coordinator for Georgia Tech santui comes over from duke he was Duke's defensive coordinator last year I'm not going to quite jump on the bandwagon like Joe tesor did Joe tesor basically an announced that this guy was the second coming of Jesus Christ and the savior of Georgia Tech football in a half um you know Georgia Tech's defense did look much improved they did a great job in the trenches but I'm not going to act like uh you know I didn't see what happened in the offseason which is Mike Elco got the head coaching job at Texas A&M and sanui was his DC at Duke he was also at A&M with Elco back when Elco was an assistant in a DC there and he did not take sanui with him to A&M which you would think he would take his DC after having a lot of success at Duke that was a red flag to me so I was interested to see how he did and he did a good job um in that first game but you also have to think about what Florida State brought in there they're coming in losing their High man candidate quarterback in Jordan Travis they lost a top two or a top uh two round pick in benenson lost two top receivers to the NFL draft Keon Coleman went basically in the first round he was the first pick of the second round so you lose basically your four best offensive players and you come in with a new quarterback and dju who's at his third School in three years right Clemson Oregon State now Florida State uh you know new running back new wide receivers and it didn't look good for Florida State offensively with the exception of like two drives the entire game um and then you look at kind of how Florida State played within this game and it's basically how dju has played his entire career he plays it a phone booth he does not push the ball down field he had a negative a DOT which is average depth of throw how far you throw the ball down field negative a dot in the first half on 12 of 14 completions so you know he's not pushing the ball downfield at all and Georgia Tech realized that and they basically started to stack the box after that first drive and said go ahead and throw on us uh in those short yardages and in short intermediate routes go ahead and try to run on us and they couldn't do either and then the only drive that they actually started to try to push the ball down the field was the last Drive Florida state had and what happened they went right down the field and scored a touchdown and tied the game so I'm not going to say yet that Tyler santui is the savior of the Georgia Tech defense I think he did a good job in game one and I think it's an upgrade from what they had absolutely but it's I I think it's a wait and see type thing for me right then you look at the other side of the ball with this Georgia Tech Team and as much as I like Hayes King he's a gamer right he made some big time plays you know the last Drive had a huge throw on Third and eight early in the drive to to keep it alive on a blitz um saw the blitz coming got it out to his check got the first down kept the drive alive which led them to you know win the football game on the game-winning field goal however when you look at the numbers right hannes King only completed 11 passes he was 11 of 16 for 146 yards yes 9.1 yards per pass but did not consistently move the ball through the air in chunks um you know they didn't look all that explosive with the exception of that first drive where they went right down the field on Florida State you take away that drive they really didn't they weren't all that explosive they were efficient um and it was against the Florida State team who again lost a bunch of guys to the NFL lost a lot of their defensive linemen to the NFL the defense did not look good uh you know I think Georgia Tech finished with above five yards per carry five yards per Rush um so I just I don't I don't see this this Georgia Tech team as a super explosive offense or at least they didn't look that way in game one now you're asking them to cover over three touchdowns for a team that scored 24 points in game one I'm not comparing Georgia state to Florida State but I'm just saying it's a big number to cover for a team that did not look all that explosive in week one offensively when you look at this Georgia State team on the other side the win total is four and a half right so you know over under four and a half wins you'd think a Georgia Tech Team probably going to be ranked in the top 25 after this week assuming they win they looked impressive on National Television in front of the whole country last week right they're playing a team you know with a low win total an instate team who's obviously inferior to you uh this team has a new head coach a new quarterback a new running back all that in mind you're going to see public money come in on Georgia Tech and yet we have seen this line Trend the opposite way that can be very telling right I have seen 22 go go down to 21 and a half I even saw some places trending to 21 if you get through that key of 21 now you're talking about some pretty sharp money not that 21 is a huge key number but in this type of game between two teams of this magnitude it could be right and so um you look at at this Georgia State team uh from a matchup perspective last year they won six of their first seven started six and one and then lost their final five to finish six- six uh they then got a bowl win over Utah State played really well despite having a lot of starters not play in that bowl game and then they go into spring and their head coach sha Elliot leaves two or three practices into the spring to go take a position coach uh job at South Carolina so now they need a new head coach and who do they hire this was an awesome move for them they got Dell McGee Del McGee has been a coach in Georgia his whole career he was the running backs coach for the Georgia Bulldogs the last eight seasons I thought it was a great hire he's got great ties to the state of Georgia which is going to help for a school like this he knows a lot of people in the area and then he hired two really good experienced coordinators Jim Cheney the offensive coordinator four Decades of experience been to five different Power five schools as an OC and they got Chad Stags who's got power five experience as a defensive coordinator as well really like the staff and how they filled that out I think Del McGee is going to get his guys to play super hard he's very very well-liked at Georgia um now they did lose a lot from a Personnel standpoint offensively uh the starting quarterback Darren grer or Granger rather gone threw for 20 touchdowns ran for 10 more he was really really good dual threat guy he's gone Marcus Carroll probably their best offensive player 1300 plus yards rushing 13 rushing touchdowns last season he transfers to Missouri they lose their top pass catcher um they lose a decent amount on the offensive line I believe they lost a guy uh their best best linean got drafted in the sixth round if I'm correct of the NFL draft so lot gone on offense that said they brought in a ton of of transfers um and I believe it's over the number is over 20 I believe five of those are going to start on the offense this year at least projected to start including their quarterback position which is still a battle between two transfers but they've got they've got double digigit power five transfers coming in so they did to get some Talent here in the transfer portal despite losing a lot right that's going to happen in any small school and it's going to happen especially when you lose your coach so uh you look at who they brought in the quarterback battle is between two kids two power five transfers a Georgia Tech transfer Zack Gibson that's an interesting uh Dynamic right there the fact that the backup Georgia Tech quarterback from last year is coming in that probably helps a little bit with game planning a pretty consistent uh offensive uh consistency over on Georgia Tech this year so he might have some some information there to help on that transfer and then they have a Pittsburgh transfer Christian valo and I thought it was going to be valoo for sure he has more experience playing in division one games in power five games but according to the depth chart that I saw again it was just a projection it wasn't the official depth chart of of Georgia State they had Zack Gibson as the starter so we'll see who ends up starting there but either way it's going to be a power five former quarterback got some really good transfers at running back CJ Beasley was a really productive player at Coastal Carolina comes in they got the Wilkerson kid from Colorado who had a ton of talent um think he got a bad WP there they also return a kid in Freddy Brock who ran for 276 yards in the bowl game last year in a single game so they have some Talent at running back um bring in a couple transfers from wide receiver as well the offense isn't going to going to be great but they'll they can do enough in this spot I think to keep them close and then I think that the defense is better than people think they returned five of their top six players from a grading perspective last year um they did lose their leading tackler at linebacker but they returned guys all over from the secondary the linebacking core and the defensive line so I think this defense is going to be better than they were last year and overall I think this team is going to be better than people think I really like the coaching staff I like the talent that they have returning defensively and I think they got some really solid transfers but the main reason I like this and why we call this show the numbers is not because of the matchup it's because of the spot and the number so we're catching 21 a half here're catching more than three touchdowns in a game like this that can be a key number secondary key number but a key number and then you look at the spot right so you have a Georgia Tech Team who just played a game where the main attraction where they were the main attraction of college football right game one week zero all eyes on Georgia Tech and Florida State Georgia Tech goes out they upset a top 25 top 10 Florida State team right it was an emotional win they walk it off on a game-winning field goal right now you come back home you're coming off this big high emotional win where everybody picked against you and you were able to win the game in emotional fashion now you come home and you're playing a team projected to win four games you're playing them at home in a stadium that's very very unlikely to be packed it's not going to be a a a a full house sellout in Atlanta tomorrow night right playing an inferior Team all those things contribute to make me think this is going to be a big let down spot for Georgia Tech then you have the travel Factor right and we've seen this with NFL teams a lot since they've started playing the London Games teams who travel and come back from that London game tend to really struggle the following week because your body time is messed up right um you know and I think this Georgia Tech Team coming off that emotional win coming back from that time change they spent more time over there than Florida state Florida State really messed up that that travel they they went in way too late and that was partially why they struggled so much um offensively they they got in on I believe Thursday morning and played Saturday uh morning anyway I think it's a bad spot for Georgia Tech in general travel emotions all of that stuff and then you look at last year how did this Georgia Tech Team respond off of big wins last year Well week four they played Wake Forest on the road they were coming off of losing two of their first three it was a big game for their season they really needed the win they were on the road against the team they were an underdog um against and they go out and they beat Wake Forest what do they do the next week they come back home and they get upset by double digits by Bowling Green by Bowling Green they lose by I believe 12 to Bowling Green State come back the following week go on the road to Miami a big emotional win the game where Mario chrisol refused to take a knee threw up all over himself yor Tech wins in the final seconds on basically a Hail Mary and Georgia Tech comes back the next week after that win over Miami and what do they do they do the exact same thing they should themselves they lose by more than two touchdowns at home to Boston College so you have a team who in big spots last year after emotional wins big wins for their football team had big letdowns the following week and did so both times in home games against below average competition right games they were favored in that they were supposed to win that's I think an important distinction here because of all of that because of the travel because of the fact that I don't I'm not that high on Florida State this year because of the fact that I think this is really tough spot for Georgia Tech big let down spot I like Georgia State in this spot I also want to say there's a lot of I you know a lot of thoughts around college football uh for people who are recreational betters that teams who play that first week have an advantage over teams who play who did not play that first week right so a team playing their second game has an advantage over a team who hasn't played yet actually that's wrong over the last two decades teams are 44% 44 4% against the spread if they played week one or week zero and their opponent did not so that team who did not play in that first week and is playing against another team which means they have film on that opponent they are 56% against the spread oppositely uh on or contrarily the other side 44% for teams like Georgia Tech so because of all all of that we're going to take the Georgia State Panthers plus the 21 A2 as always shop around get the best number we do not want take this below 21 21 a half is is important because it's three touchdowns we're catching the extra Hook lose by 21 we still win the bet so obvious as always shop around for the best number don't take a bad number but we're going to grade this officially at 21 a half we the Georgia State Panthers for Best Bet number three of the week