Nate Silver Says RFK Jr Endorsing Trump Gives Trump The Edge Over Kamala Harris

let's jump to this story from the silver bulletin Nate silver has got his new forecast and he's basically saying RFK Jr actually may be boosting Donald Trump after all he says that her Kam Harris's lead peaked at 4.3 points on the national average the day Kennedy dropped out now it's down to 3.5 in the now RFK lless version of our model it's not bad the uh uh with the convention bounce adjustment the model is applying the number the November forecast is about as close to 5050 as it gets then he goes on to say he's off to uh England or whatever but right now he's got this forecast model where he talks about where the states are currently at his polls the polls he's he he trusts and what he use or whatever and what he said in a Twitter a Twitter thread was that if kamla is ahead nationally by two points then Trump has an 88% chance to win I believe that I believe that's what if she's if she's a head I'm getting it wrong yeah I think two points get oh no no no I'm sorry I'm sorry I'm wrong if she's ahead by one to two points Trump has a it's 66 to like 33 if kamla is three to four points ahead then she has an 88% chance to win he is forecasting her as being ahead over three points which would give her this massive bump however now I suppose he's saying considering that they're adjusting for the convention it's looking like it's actually close to 50/50 I don't know how correct he is but uh when you go to the r R CP Battleground average the place that actually matters uh Trump's actually doing really well so in the Battleground States I think uh oh did they get rid of the actual average it looks like Harris has taken the the it's tied absolutely tied right now this would imply Donald Trump is expected to win the Battleground States unless there's some weird dramatic thing where like Texas flips it's looking good for Donald Trump right now but nowhere near guaranteed which is what we always thought since won we we've not known this is going to be a close election if you follow what you know the the the folks you know Tyler Boer and Charlie Kirk I mean and they built the ballot Chase program that I'm working on we won Wisconsin by 23,000 votes in 2016 and then we lost it by 20 just over 20,000 votes in 20 um 20 so it's going to be just around that margin again it's going to be very close um there's going to be a lot a lot more Black Swan events from now until the end of the election um and I don't think they'll matter it's going to come down to the Normie individual people who don't know anything about politics they are quite literally going to determine this election take a look at this graph he that Nate Silver's got he says uh how big is the electoral electoral college bias so he says if the popular vote is from zero to plus one all right let me let me show you realair politics currently has Harris at 1.7 if it's 0 to one Trump's got an 85.5% chance of winning if it's one to two Trump has a 61.4% % chance of winning well real real clear politics has Harris at 1.7 and if that fits his model Trump's looking at about a 2 to1 chance to win right now however he says if it's two to three Harris has 69.3% to Trump's 29.9 and of course Nate silver has uh Comm Harris at 3.5 so Nate silver is basically saying she's got an 88% chance to win this one there's a compounding effect between two and three where it drops from 85 to 61 that's 24% then it goes from 61 to 29 which is 32% why is the difference in in one point 24% but then it's 30 30 you have to ask Nate silver how he models out his predictions and whether or not anyone should care yeah I don't think anyone should care none of this data correlates with each other so like for example Kamala can just do really well in California and she can win the national vote by a certain percentage and that necessarily wouldn't coordinate into how things will shake out in the Electoral College so look Nate Nate silver is often um I think what you're seeing from a lot of pollsters is they're trying to create the illusion of momentum for Harris everyone within the Borg of puling um there was no reason to do that when Biden was running because he was a corpse and we all knew it but I think they're really trying to put on the fact that Harris can win and this OB look this helps Democrat fundraisers this helps them say hey look we're close on the margin your $2 million is going to push us over the edge I think that's the the reason why you see this Griff taking place the way you do because there hasn't been a bump for Cala in Georgia amongst Suburban voters and that's where she's headed right now I mean they're about to spend some time in Georgia what swing states are you expecting Cala to win versus Trump I do think Camala is going to win um I think she's gonna win Virginia if we count Virginia as a swing state I think she's going to win North Carolina if we count that as a swing state Arizona I think Democrats are going to get trounced in specifically because turning point is based there and what we saw in the primary was increases in voter turnout and pretty much every precin in Maricopa County because of the work turning points doing there I think that's going to translate to Georgia I think that's going to translate into Wisconsin and I don't think a lot of you know your blue your blue dog dims aren't excited for Kamala let's let's do this yeah this is the 270 to win map using the polls from Nate silver on Silver bulletin so you can see that Trump is only ah head in Georgia and Florida in the Battleground States right so if we go here and we apply it KLA Harris has got 303 to Donald Trump's 235 but let's start with what you're saying we got to take Arizona off the M you say Arizona's going red got to take Arizona off the map Arizona's going red we're also hearing that Virginia uh uh could be getting close to flipping but you think it's going to go Blue everything I've heard indicates yunan was a fluke he had to run so moderate even to win and a lot of those Independents now don't like yunan because he's been but he just mandated paper ballots we don't know what the effect of that is going to be on on the state hard know for sure now what about uh Michigan with Michigan Wisconsin and and Pa I'm feeling good for Wisconsin and Pa Michigan I'm I'm unsure about I was there for the people's convention I feel we've put in if Trump wins Wisconsin Michigan and Arizona that's it he said pa read Michigan unsure yeah oh you said pa is red yeah and then Michigan is unsure sure yeah Trump still wins this will be interesting is there a lot of mail and voting in these stes I I can't I can't imagine Wisconsin honestly you know he's going to have to win somewhere else I don't see how Wisconsin goes red do you think he'll take Nevada Nevada I don't think so I don't know I do not think so yeah that's tough Arizona makes sense because of tpusa and their massive Outreach efforts but uh we'll see maybe Steven Crowder pulls off a miracle but North Carolina you think North Carolina goes blue I think North Carolina goes blue interesting well it's it's uh it's not looking good then is it so he'd need either you know Michigan or Virginia in that case which is interesting let's just say uh what does he have what does he need four electoral votes could still win North Carolina we won our this our C race there in 20 if this map happens and New Hampshire goes for Trump it's a tie let's go New Hampshire you can do this there are actually a lot of different uh outcomes that create a tie and New Hampshire going red is unlikely but in the real of possibility and the rest of these states are all in the realm of possibility I would imagine there's a very low probability of happening but wow it would be a trump Harris presidency that would be so awesome oil and water man oil and water very weird buddy cups to come yeah that's that's the way politics I was going to say should be I mean at one point in history we did have that kind of thing I don't remember who but 538 says 58 times out of 100 this is interesting the the chance of a tie is increasing they now say there's a f it it looks like they're arguing there's a a0 5% chance of a tie it looks like a 05% chance yep 0 five that ain't nothing you know so there's is a chance what would happen if there's a they'd literally be the president the vice president would be the house would choose the president and Senate would choose the vice president so it would be Trump Harris wow yep look at this that's a compromise five circumstances in their prediction model that resulted in no winner hey man like I think our country is so broken that that might be what helps pull us out of this 1 in 200 crazy if Trump and Harris were having to govern together I mean like we're in a place in politics where no one is willing to say I could be wrong no one in Zuckerberg did recently which was pretty pretty prolific if Trump wins there's no way there's no way Democrats have the Senate it's just there's just no way I mean let let me pull up them well they're saying there's a there there's people who are saying the Police Association just endorsed Trump and then they endorse car Lake's opponent there's more than just that archetype in Arizona I'm saying it's hypothetically possible Arizona goes for Trump and then they elect they send a Democrat to the Senate is Ohio going Trump oh I think so yes then Ohio is is going to go red I think so and then then we've got then you got 51 yeah I that's it's over I I don't see a reality in which Trump wins and doesn't have the Senate so uh I it'll be interesting uh what this means is if KLA Harris is the VP in a contingent election she does nothing as VP she there's no tiebreaking vote for her to cast so another if if the Senate's 50/50 and Kamala is VP through a contingent election she can disrupt Trump's Plans by blocking Republican policy by casting tiebreaking votes in favor of Democrats as VP in a trump Administration which is crazy which is crazy but there's no reality where Trump uh uh where uh uh Ohio at the very least goes red and doesn't also uh you know elect a republican right because Ohio was less like Arizona with all these Independents and the McCain faction Montana come on Ohio's gonna send Bernie Marino to the Senate you you and you think Montana like Montana's a tossup right now so they're saying but do we really think Montana's a tossup I think it really depends on on um how much people rally around the in there but I think that they will I mean there I think there are um like every major or a lot of these rural States like in Colorado it's largely red outside but Denver's really blue I think that you know you're right like there is a blue influence in Montana uh I just think donester is not doing that well as far as I know he still has an endorsed Cala Harris so it makes me think that there is a chance that he loses his seat if he felt more secure he would if he thought it would benefit him to line up behind Harris he would have done it by now MH I'm just over here making uh my forecast map and uh a sweep what is this purple whatever no we're making a red get out of here there we go there you go SE 69 Republicans that's oh wait what's this Rhode Island Connecticut they're too small you can you can barely even click on Rhode Island we click it right there there you go Rhode Island all right and uh what's VP vice president ah that's right that's right that's right and then we'll make a Hawaii red as well and 71 just the whole country Hawai went red this year it's not going to happen yeah and the vice president uh this will be really interesting so does the the VP they usually don't count it oh I see the VP is just literally the little tiebreaker in the middle so Ohio goes red now I gotta tell you what's what's alarming is the forecast that Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin are going to go Democrat Senators that doesn't Bodwell for a presidential election either I it's not going to make a lot of sense that there're they hyper partisan voters are going to be like I'll vote for Donald Trump but the Democrat because people who hate Trump hate Trump Democrats are not going to vote for Trump I mean I wonder if they're posturing the same way that that tester is right like tester's not endorsing Harris to try and seem more moderate um you know the Democrats have this this unusual phenomenon where they have several Independents who caucus with them which makes me think that there is a a wavelength of democrat aligned voters who think oh but the party isn't all that it should be it's isn't right like you get lots of of people who ultimately run as Republicans who you know identify with libertarian politics but the fact that like the three Independents I can think of that are in Congress right now all ultimately caucus with Democrats uh or I mean Joe mansion's kind of not he's done a lot of work with Republicans recently uh it makes me think that this party isn't as unified on every level of government as they are necessarily on the federal level at least when it comes to presidential elections you you see this right here now how does this make sense oh my gosh I love that area see you see this blue wants to secede into West Virginia and right above it dark red dark red dark red dark red all around it yet for some reason um it's because of uh I believe Frederick right I think so it turns the whole thing blue and the people who live surrounded this is magga country over here no question you go there this is the place where all the bars have pictures of Donald Trump riding a velociraptor with a machine gun in Maryland Western and it's blue and yeah in in the western Panhandle Maryland that's all the pic River there that's at the border on the south why it's carved like that you you go out there and hang out it's it's me it's Mega country yet yet it's being represented by a Democrat that's ridiculous yeah it is interesting that that I was deeply studying the Ceno um Canal going from the Chesapeake Bay up the river and they wanted to connect the Ohio River the ches bay the bomic and that that area is like mountainous and not the same at all anymore as they only carved it that way because it made sense probably to control the riverways and the canals back in the day but the Canal's gone now it got destroyed by a flood they Ed cars I mean the trains they still have trains but like almost like Maryland could split in half and it would be fine like I it maybe be ridiculous to have Western Maryland be its own State because it's not that populace well the the counties in Western Maryland asked if they could join West Virginia and West Virginia's capital was like we would love that but now you have to talk to uh what Annapolis is the capital of Maryland they should not have to at all it's it is we We're a nation built upon a declaration of independence any County should be able to declare in their state like we held an election in this County we have hereby democratically chosen to join another state they're not they're not changing the amount of Representatives they are not changing the uh uh structure of the federal government and they should be allowed to do it so long as the state agrees to accept them the other state if if we had that function imagine what would happen the people who lived in these counties in in uh Maryland would say we have hereby voted to succeed the state would then say wait wait wait wait what do you want to not do that and they would actually have to offer up something to the people who lived there instead of saying shut up you can't do anything about it or you'll go you know do do we tell you or else imagine you actually could just say no no we're going to succeed and go join Idaho or something thanks for watching this clip from timcast IRL make sure to check out the live show Monday through Friday at 8:00 pm on this channel subscribe and we'll see you all there