PolyMarket Has Kamala At 75% Chance To WIN 2024 Election

we have the poly Market numbers kamla Harris has a 75% chance to win the election according to poly market and it looks like they've got around 207 or 28 million on the line right here actually I don't know what is this $200 million bet on popular vote winner is that what that means I don't I don't know yeah looks like 200 million is BET on this oh because of the no side well that seems I don't know how this stuff works but I'll tell you this if you believe poly Market you can make that wager if you believe Nate silver there's free money waiting for you I am not telling you to make bets I am not giving you advice I'm just saying this is what we would refer I mean if Nate silver is correct as an individual expert using a forecasting model and he says Trump today has a 60% chance to win uh you're EV positive 60% chance to win 75% uh uh or you know four four times your money all he's got to do to win is look like a good guy Trump he's got to look like a good guy that doesn't get upset if if he gets freaked out and angry he's going to lose I disagree he can get angry if it's for the right reason maybe you're right get the behind me Satan if you use anger to propel you forward yeah but if you're getting taunted by the person across from you no that's right but but if his anger is and he had this at the debate he I don't know if I think he had a good amount if his anger was let's say she says Trump's rallies people are Le leaving early and and then Trump got angry at Wayne and went excuse me how dare you bring up something so inconsequential when the American people are suffering right now the cost of gas is through the roof eggs are through the roof milk is through the roof and you're talking about rallies insults this is insulting yeah and then immediately offer the solutions to the people suffering that anger lights people up I also think he could have gotten angry about the fact that she's being flippant about his rallies when a trump supporter died at one of his rallies in Pennsylvania I mean she is pretending like that didn't happen which is amazing and frankly the ABC moderators let her he was the only one to reference the assassination attempt which I think is am issue I mean she is protected by the Secret Service doesn't she care that they failed apparently not and that should be telling do you think that on the economy Trump is better than kamla Ian yeah I don't really see any plan that she has at all he at least is talking about some like at the debate he didn't really get specific I want specifics but I've heard him talk to Elon Musk about bringing him in to fix a lot of bureaucracy which on that Elon Musk call which was pretty promising um I know he did put the tariffs on he he really stuck it to a lot of foreign countries with he's talked a lot about NATO paying their fair share things like that are those good things I mean they'll they'll bring money in in the short term so they look like they're they're at least stemming the bleeding of our economy but if you really want to fix the economy you need a new fuel system I haven't heard him mention hydrogen fuel once that's it you're never going to get Ian to vote for you unless you bring up no if you're going to talk about doing the thing that we did the last 150 years and it's going to work you're wrong we need something new the American the American people aren't listening for numbers and statistics and debate Trump dominates on the economy issue you go to the you go to the grocery store you go to the Gas Pump and you see that everything is expensive and it's this is the worst time to be making good money in America and they had great times under President Trump and that's all people need to hear or that's all people need to remember I don't maybe if it's an emotional thing but like when he's just like everything is horrible like his he wanted the he wanted the he won the coin toss so he wanted I'm like I'm going to take the last word his last word was everything sucks and everything's bad and she's horrible that's the energy you want to leave everybody with give me a hopeful vision of the future incorrect that's why you take the last word closing message which he repeated three times and I'm I'm saying that he repeated it three times because of what he could have clearly articulated it better was why isn't she doing it now his closing statement was not about what you're saying he said she offers you this she offers you that it all sounds nice but she believes in things that the American people do not yeah his closing statement was about her it should have been about him and his vision not about compl government accountability she's currently in the executive branch and she's saying everything is fine when American people know leftwing even leftwing analyst afterwards saying pres of the Senate are you nuts that's it sorry Hannah CL all the bills that are going through she's the one stamping two of them yeah she's in two parts of stamping more than two you realize that you're saying she's part of the executive and the legislative branch and she still is telling Americans that we're wrong somebody she did she did a tiebreaking vote the inflation reduction act that screwed our country and she was the tiebreaker on it I'm sorry to interrupt what you were saying Oh no you're fine I'm just saying that like even leftwing analysts in mainstream media afterwards were saying you know obviously they're praising her everything that they can but I watched three different networks talk about this and every single one was like but when we got to closing arguments and he said why she's already there why hasn't she done anything about it it's difficult to refute that point I mean I think a lot of Americans and of course you know everyone has different perspective I'm not trying to tell you that you know you know obviously I respect your opinion but I I think that a lot of Americans have that question when it comes to Kamala Harris you can't be both a vice president and also say well I have nothing to do with this uh Administration and so therefore I'm going to be a fresh fact check 33 tiebreaking votes as of September of 2024 you take the last statement in a debate it's not to leave a poison pill for everyone about your enemy it's about to give people hope about you that's the reason you speak last is to get them remembering you when walk out remembering the things you said when they walk out not to be thinking about her he his big boy politics D come on I mean well I'll see a point to in I I definitely would have liked to hear about you know the future in his closing remarks but I think everything that he said he completely nailed it on the head and I think that his closing statement want him to debate no I I think oh I totally disagree made me disgust Ian you got his closing statement wrong you mischaracterize pull it up we should watch it it's disgusting it's pointless it's just he just argues and complains I'm getting I'm getting like an 80% quote he said you believe you believe in things the American people do not things like stopping fracking and you know she talks about this and that thing and this thing and it sounds good but why haven't you done it now that was the the message that he was sending now what he needed to add to it and I would agree with this is he should have said he he he could have been more articulate he could have said KLA Harris keeps promising all of these beautiful things she say going to do this for you that for you the question is why hasn't she already done it if she can she could have she won't here's what I'll do I will unleash American Energy I will produce so much energy in this country your gasoline costs will go down your heat will go down your bills they will go down your phone bill your health insurance will all follow suit your groceries will go down your wages will go up and we start with energy should have said that yeah he should have start he should have for sure ended the debate with a positive message about what he's going to do it was Zero of that unfortunate but but asking for Trump to give a perfect performance does not mean that he didn't perform well I mean I would have taken a 40% ending his his closing statement was a zero it was AE I don't think you no he didn't he didn't make any statements he complained about the girl that was a terrible move he said under me we'll do all kinds of stuff but what has she been doing I mean I think this is the thing like if if the objective of the debate for Trump was to stay cool talk about the policy like maybe he could have done better he did talk about some stuff he landed some some funny blows on kamla KLA had a bigger burden she needed to Define who she was she needed to show that she understood policy and she had a plan for the country she did not do that and that's why I like the closing statement I like that he was like she's already in the White House and she's not doing anything if she has all of these promises which she has failed to tell us right now why hasn't she carried them out I think that is something voters are really considering when they look at Kamal Harris they already know Trump and he's promised optimism he's promised hope for years and years and years and in this case I think it makes sense to hold her to the why didn't he drain the swamp you want to talk about people not doing what they say they're going to do I mean that's why he said I need more time there's actually an answer to why he didn't drain the swamp I just don't think you want to accept it well the answer is he didn't know how the that's half the answer it is he brought on people that he didn't realize were bad and made a mistake he totally failed in that regard so hold on would you consider failure experience yeah sure K Harris has a lot more experience from failing that's a good I also don't think she's going to drain the swamp right she never said she was going to the thing though like if you want someone who said I'm going to try and do these things versus the person who's like I think everything in Washington is perfect the way it is I would still want the guy who my my point is on draining the swamp Donald Trump brought in bad people and regretted it later and fired a bunch of them and so many people would would jokingly refer to this as he drained a lot of the swamp but the swamp monsters were still there the water came down we saw the swamp monsters and he didn't get rid of them hopefully now that he's learned from this the next time he will but voting for kamla Harris is a guarantee that that never happens well I do agree with that actually she's very tied in with the bureaucratic Empire and and I'm I'm letting you guys know I I really want some positive change in this country and I would really love to see someone Empower our industrial base but I'm just calling this objectively as I saw it what about RFK Jr I love the guy would you would you support RFK J I do support RFK junr you do he said to vote for Trump I know and he said a trump Victory is an RFK Victory he says you vote for Trump and we're going to make America healthy again so I got to tell you bro I don't think I I understand you have a social argument concerns about the divisive nature of where this country is but I feel like mathematically you can you can you can call Trump every name in the book but RFK Jr has asked for your help I know got to do it Joel what do you think of rfk's endorsement of of trump I know it's a couple weeks ago I think it's great got to unify yeah I think it it I was kind of worried um about RFK remaining on the ballot to split up the vote in some way but I mean I I think his movement and our movement align very much and I'm glad to see we're all on the same team I think Ian really didn't like the presidential debate because they didn't bring up graphine enough they didn't bring it up at all bring up graphing at all if Donald Trump's calling you out Ian if the whole no no listen listen if the debate went exactly identically in every way but right at the end as as he's saying why isn't she done it why isn't she done it and why w't you talk about graphine thank you everybody goodbye Ian would be like it was a great won the debate yeah it wouldn't great if he talked about industry I I that yeah I mean obviously that's a bit silly if he just said the word graphine but I mean I would have lit up if he had uh just to make that noise known by the populace I I I propose this to you uh sir Crossland you should continue to criticize Donald Trump in the exact way that you are and then vote for him because RFK Jr has made the public statement and has asked for your help and outside of the statement I genuinely believe RFK Jr is the guy he is like when we talk about seed oils when we talk about environmental toxins when we talk about radiation all this garbage him being a part of the Trump team is one of the most important things of Our Generation yeah there's other people too that are are very behind um tsy gabard Robert Malone the doctor BR Brett Weinstein like these brilliant people that I highly respect are in support they're doing that rally on the 29th I didn't know about that yeah the save the Republic rally so I'm just saying if you don't like Trump that's totally fine and I I understand a lot of people don't like the guy but vote for those that are around him and and I I got to say like RFK Jr for the most because he's a he's a he's a liberal guy and he's called it the censorship the war machine the the pharmaceutical industrial complex and the you know when he talks about the environmental uh diseases and chronic illness he's not pointing to a you know a guy that we're mad at he's talking to a a state of emergence and this country where we became negligent and allowed phalates pcbs plastic all this garbage in our surroundings and our food that's poisoned people and he wants to solve that problem and it's it's one of the only times we've actually gotten a real chance at having someone come in to deal with this then you got to throw in Elon musk's Department of government uh uh what is it um Doge yeah Doge efficiency efficiency that's right Doge it's like be mad at Trump get mad that he didn't he was too flustered or he got easily goated but the people around him is a gift yeah this is what we're at we're we're altering our the world order into a new world order of some sort we're creating a new world order and we got to talk I could feel like we could do an entire episode on how we can craft a better world order than what we've got that's better than bricks because if we don't brics is going to take over I I agree I think Trump's Coalition right now is one of the most epic things you could have ever have asked for you've got talking about coalitions if Joe Biden can put on a Maga hat I think Ian oh dude was he thinking I'll get you that campaing for he kept the Hat he did keep it he he can't stand his his VP or something so so check it out there's speculation that uh so he he releases a letter on Twitter that he's dropping out let's let's let's let's dedicate some time to this okay so so Joe Biden wears a trump hat keeps the Trump hat and everyone's and the White House says it's because he's trying to uh uh show Unity or build Unity but there's some speculation and I think it's wishful thinking but speculation so when Joe Biden drops out of the race initially it was through a Twitter letter and the conspiracy theory was Biden did not release that letter he had been saying the whole time up to that point I will not drop out no matter what then all of a sudden without a video or a public statement a letter appears the conspiracy theory was that staffers uploaded that to his account without his permission or knowledge to force him because now you can't go back what are you going to do come out and claim that commo or or the Obamas secretly did this no you're out it was a coup and he went on to say later that he was upset about it he didn't want to drop out he thought he could win there's speculation now that he put the Trump hat on because he's he's out he knows he's out he has no reason to benefit any of these people he's been on the beach now for how long people are keep posting these photos of him on vacation and they're like this guy is checked out he's no longer president he like he is but he's just basically in his mind saying you pushed me out you shut me down I just don't care anymore right he must feel a certain level of betrayal from the Democrats and these Democrats that he have he has uh considered his friends and allies for years I mean I was listening to uh uh a New York Times analysts talk about this afterwards and she said that there was uh actually it was a it was a New York Times interview with a senior executive with for the DNC and she said that she saw uh Biden's letter go out on on July 21st and she was like oh my goodness it's happening and then there was like a hour 30 minute delay before he released a statement endorsing Kamala and she said before during that time she was actually kind of nervous because it was like he hasn't endorsed Kamala this is throwing us into chaos and you know I could understand where if the drafted letter was written by someone who didn't have authority and they they kind of forced his hand by releasing it uh why there would be a delay and then a separate endorsement of Kamala why because it could have all been one statement thanks for watching this clip from timcast IRL make sure to check out the live show Monday through Friday at 8:00 p.m. on this channel subscribe and we'll see you all there