Nate Silver Prediction Model Shows Trump WINNING In LANDSLIDE VICTORY In 2024

from Newsmax which is actually quite funny a shocking new projection from poster Nate silver has Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump winning every swing state in route to an election Landslide over vice president kamla Harris mediaite reported Monday so I think we have the uh interactive polls here look at this Pennsylvania Trump Michigan Trump Wisconsin Trump Arizona North Carolina Georgia Nevada all Trump Trump trump Trump trump poly Market Trump is at 52% it's just getting better and better for the guy we can pull up the uh the latest silver bulletin Let me refresh this actually I think he's revised it and it's even better 64.4% Trump to win with a projected electoral vote count of 281 I'm going to read that again for you a Trump trump is in route to an election Landslide over kamla Harris and I'm reading this to get you really excited because then when kamla Harris wins you'll be equally as disappointed I I I tell you if you're sitting here right now saying woohoo we're going to win Trump's going to win whatever you're going to lose it's only when you push as hard as you can and you get out there and you vote you do whatever you have to do you register your friends you get everybody registered to vote that's when you win but the reality is no matter what Nate silver is telling you you we have no idea what's going to happen so the only thing that matters is assume nothing assume uh assume nothing you need to get out and just and do the work I can't tell whether it's kind of sweet or or a nasty Heckle that they've included Kennedy right at the bottom on the axis line there um sort of stops though drops off is a landmark for us 0% across the board yeah look I think all of this stuff is nonsense to be honest with you and I think the pollsters have not managed to figure out new methodologies that work with a snap candidate uh that work with this election that you know take into account everything that changed remember a lot of things changed uh in 2019 and in the runup to the 2020 election the way votes are cast the the length of period of time you have to send in your vote and I think pollsters really have not accounted for all of that which is why stuff all over the place this not a poll no it's it's it's not a poll it's a it's a percentage likelihood right this is a prediction model and this is based off the same it's the same sets of kinds of data that you're talking about I I I I got to give Nate silver a little bit more credit he's talked about how he's uh updated the model over the past several years he's selected for polls that that are weighted more correctly and more importantly he said that the current skewing Trump is facing the model actually predicted the increase so people got on the left liberals they got mad because he wasn't giving K Harris the convention bump sure and he was like there's not going to be one it's not happening so they were like no no the probability of her winning should go up because after the convention she's going to see a poll increase and he goes no she won't and she didn't and with this bump in Trump he he said uh uh recently I think he said on X that the projection model actually predicted Trump's likelihood to increase in the way we are seeing now and it or or or or something to the effect of we predict that the model predicted K Harris's polls would not be improving and they have not been now he does say it's opportune moment for her with the debate coming up because this is her chance to to to swing it back in to to bring it back around I really don't think she can do that so just every Everybody Knows tomorrow night special live show with with members of Congress in DC as we're going to have on a rotating panel of various members of Congress who are going to comment on the debate I imagine it's going to be very very funny so just just to come back on your point point there for a second with with the data that's going in so firstly you have to take into account that this is this is what Nate Sila believes are the more reliable polling that he works into his model which I'm not necessarily sure I'm ready to do yet is is is make that leap of trust there and the reason I'm not ready to do that is because it goes back to my earlier point is that those pollsters right uh you talk about the postc convention bump there hasn't actually been a proper you know Mega measurable pole bump in the last several presidential elections now I think going back to 2000 there hasn't been 3 or 4% you might get but those are within the margins of error on a lot of these polls so it's not like in the' 70s where you'd have this and it would be everywhere it be front page of every newspaper and that's all people were seeing and then people were telling the opinion posters oh yeah I did like what he said about this cuz I saw on the front page for you know three weeks straight after their convention now you're getting these immediacy like tries to measure you know they're measuring sentiment now right coming out of these things you know how did you feel when she said this certain word that certain word and I think a lot of it is just dog have you seen the things where they have like the focus group watch the debate and they'll give them a knob like you twist the knob when you feel good when left when you feel bad and then you can watch in real time the collective like we like this we don't like this you know that's that is funny because the ultimately the problem is who are these people right there was some viral story where Democrats were all mad because some conservative podcaster was brought on as an undecided voter and then was just like I'm going to vote for Trump and it's like you were voting for Trump the whole time can see Pennsylvania what does it say about Pennsylvania specifically because that iSell weather so check it out currently in the polls Pennsylvania is d+3 however in the last week it's improved by Trump by nearly one whole point this is after Tim wall spending multiple days there so he's really hurting the campaign I don't think Republicans have won in Pennsylvania since what was it did you say 2016 16 yeah um the last time Republicans won there so that's why I'm a little you know I think that's where that's where it really will all come down to yeah I think it does I mean that's a silver prediction too that ultimately without Pennsylvania it's all Pennsylvania yeah she she can't win Harris can't win rahee do you think the change in polling is largely due to moving from a print-based media to a digital media you need more content and you need it faster um no I look there also there have been many different changes in polling you know I did an article about this several years ago for Breitbart where we sort of went into the detail on something called random digit dial how do you actually reach somebody that you want as somebody for the poll because you don't actually want all of these people you know that the reason that there's so much waiting put on all of this stuff is because sometimes they over sample sometimes they under sample I mean honestly with some of the measurements I've seen running polls they'll they'll pull three black people and then and then waight that up as if they're speaking to black people all around the country and it's it's completely useless data unless you're dealing with like Sant level type stuff which believe me most of these posters are not right these are commercial pollsters they're doing it just because their clients are paying them to do it uh these aren't passion projects for them um you're ending up and so you know there's a and then now there's online surveys there's all of this other stuff uh that you get into L listen you know back in 2016 what was the most influential poll all year round well it was The Drudge poll and that was nowhere near scientific it was not a real poll it was not waited it was just a survey a button on a website but it set the news cycle in motion and that's what people want to see over and over and over again interesting so if we go to the Electoral College map right here and we give Trump all of the Swing States but we give Pennsylvania Democrats it don't matter Trump wins he's winning Georgia in this model too yeah okay well I hope I mean I mean no this is this is Nate Silver's uh uh chance of winning Pennsylvania 65% Michigan 55 Wisconsin 53 Arizona 77 North Carolina 76 Georgia 69 Nevada 61 56 days from the election now one thing I did see that was interesting was that in several uh I can't remember I think it was Michigan I'm not sure but uh Democrats in the Senate uh not I think it's like three different states in the Democrats are leading in their Senate races in these swing States substantially so the argument is how could Trump possibly have the favor be favored to win if the polling is swinging so heavily towards a Democrat Senator well it's actually quite simple it's not good for Trump that the Senate would be Democrat but KLA Harris is just that bad m Joe Biden was was worse and they didn't think he' able to win so they brought in kamla Harris because the money I I think the real issue was the money they it's already questionable if Kamala can take the money from the Biden campaign and they're arguing she can but apparently she used Biden's FEC number instead of her own it's it's it's this whole mess if they were to try and swap in anybody else the money's gone yeah so they're just thinking look we we we need the money we have to do Kamala right and Kamala is not popular well in the senate race especially in contentious States has had they've had more time they've been running for much longer than Harris has so I could understand where they might have made more inroads in their own communities uh what I what I find interesting about Harris overall and I've made this point before but she is not a standin that I think Democrats are happier with I think they would have preferred to see a competition leading in a culmination at the DNC because it would have encouraged voter participation uh I I've told the story before that the first heris sign I saw in this area was not actually a heris sign it was a Biden heris sign that someone had cut in half and now someone else has told me that she's seen similar ones but instead of cutting Biden off they just plas her over at like teachers 4 and then it says Harris like they are throwing her in because she's there but not because she has any true influence or uh is an inspiring candidate and I think for a lot of contentious races they're actually trying to distance themselves from her look at John tester in Montana he wouldn't endorse her well uh Trump has a 3.4% chance of winning New Jersey look at that New Jersey what about New York uh New York is 1% hey that's a single digit there you go that's a single digit right there Massachusetts is a half Point Trump would never let us forget if he won New York he would talk about it forever those yard signs by the way that's just responsible recycling okay very green environmentally friendly look there was a point in time where you know the idea of New York being in play wasn't completely out there when Biden was the candidate Y and you know the debate I think was campaign malpractice they shouldn't have allowed him to you know do that early debate debate with Biden get him out of the race but the reason Pelosi wanted him out of the race was they uh saw how he was hurting all the down ticket races and so now you're seeing a situation where a little bit of pressure has been alleviated down ticket but as you say you know people just aren't buying the Kamala stuff and again I agree with you uh tomorrow night it's it's really his I don't want to say it like this because it puts pressure on him but it's his to lose Harris might win New York but if she loses the House Seats all around the city if she continues losing Upstate a lot of house members in on Long Island in these purple districts um if they can't maintain the house the Democrats um or do the Republicans have the majority now um Republicans have majority in the house but if if Democrats can't maintain majority in the Senate Andor take control of the house if Trump wins it's going to be a very tough time for them legislatively thanks for watching this clip from timcast IRL make sure to check out the live show Monday through Friday at 8:00 pm on this channel subscribe and we'll see you all there