NASCAR DFS Live Xfinity Series at Darlington Before Lock

H all right should be all good to go let's just go ahead and make sure I can hear myself the microphone's working go ahead and possibly mute this whenever it does low me hear myself oh I have that would help hell yeah okay cool I can't hear myself all right how we doing now this this right here is a fun slate okay so uh what I want to do is just go ahead and jump right into it we'll we'll talk about you know practice and where every every body's starting and you know etc etc etc let's go ahead and bring this bad boy in here and you might be like oo what's in the blackout well you know we'll just have to see so you know going over the you know the the bare minimum the you know by default where people are in practice and stuff absolute grain track huge fall off and practice huge differences in in practice stuff or in the two practice sessions here which you know whatever that's fine we understand that's what happens this is nothing new okay but use this combine of other people should be you know then you can decide for where people are where people should be based on other ened tracks and then we have a good idea of where people should be at in terms of speed this is where fellows were at the end of practice in terms by averages looking at uh laps that were over the bare minimum of like 149 miles an hour um you can see the guys who are slow now I'm going to be real here I think either and I didn't check abnormally distributed stuff because when I checked he hadn't had anything there I think NASCAR I think their data was [ __ ] on Chastain because I only pulled three laps of his and I know for a fact he did a longer run because you know when I went on like Twitter and I was like what happened to Chastain did he did something happen here with my little crab arms um I didn't find anything like out of the ordinary like no reports on him not running Li laps or anything there were you know like you know dgms Tweet now like oh man Chastain feels pretty comfortable after this run making a small adjustment then heading back out there that I'm like we're I'm missing laps here on Chast St um so that was like one takeaway uh I didn't bother looking into it more than that that was just oh odd I guess I'm missing L whatever that's fine um but P that we got everything else for everybody else like we know where people are like the slow guys uh you know like none of this should be incredibly shocking oh why Sam a here well he ran you know so long and stuff so nothing too crazy here nothing too Wicked wild and stuff um and yet again another reason why I almost dislike doing the preview videos more is this the great example uh because like this race here for everybody queed like anything said oh this is what I think of people this is what I think of people on Thursday uh that doesn't even apply now with where where people are starting and and the situations that we're run into also uh let's go on internet good morning Stan or afternoon wherever you're at maybe in Hawaii and it's like 8 o'clock in Hawaii so good morning to you um when we look at the runs this is where I do uh get a little bit more interested in where do I sort by I never remember um let me just see if this one real fast I not or maybe just Ross didn't run LS who knows who cares um so the main the only takeaway at this point is like okay who's actually running long and not where they're at in terms of speed like who are the teams is it like you know the the middle fellas last night uh like was it was it the middle fellas is like 7K guys is it like the big dogs that should be running long runs like you know etc etc and so like when we're just looking real fast love Alfredo kuster and Ryan SE sadly did not run 20 lap runs we see Alfredo and kuster at least running 15 that's fine to see you know Jesse love clearly not happy uh with the car you know when now pit Lane main adjustment went back out but then you'd lose you know the the short run that you can gain from the you know 15 minute 20 minute session that we have because that's basically you know 15 20 run if you go down pit Lane to make an adjustment that's just the run away so you won't be in the data point but you know least seeing them run 10 laps uh both uh love and SE is good uh pretty at least for me in terms of like where we're at in terms of issues and stuff um not really seeing anything too worrisome I mean La had had the tire go down uh so like that explains that we don't really see anything out of the ordinary here when we look at the people who are running long people who are going to contend to get through the field Hill greggson just had a horrible horrible qap that's why he's in the back you know all these guys who plan a running well who have a good car who ran long like none of this is no there's nobody up here shouldn't necessarily be here you know I'm not really looking at times I'm just looking at where you know the amount of people they're at where we're at like okay well Josh Williams ran 14 or he you know he ran 20 laps I mean that's at least good to see compared to where he's stting compared to people he's running with you know Joe graph Jr uh Joe Gibbs Rand long whatever and so honestly like the practice I'm not taking much away from that um because this then turns into a very much projection based race now if I'm not mistaken this race is 147 laps uh at least that is what we have on the good old nascar.com which has lied to us several times this year and that's all I'm going to go off of um so we're looking at a race that dist advertise distance on esco.com 147 laps we see situations to where Christopher Bell who you know this is where we can look at things specifically on each driver okay ran long clearly happy with the car not too worried about it you know knows knows what he's getting from there or knows what he has to do getting acclimated of the car Etc like that's not bad he ran a long run puts it on the pole so we see then compared to Creed and Sam mayor where them looking at these individuals here like what is the Avenue how do we get how do we understand the potential for Bell to run away with this race okay he's clearly faster than Creed okay across the board I mean this is what Creed does he's sometimes he starts second sometimes he starts third he's he's not gonna compete with bell off the off the start like that's just how it is now maybe you're looking at practice and you're like well you know Creed was better than than Bell you know maybe you look in the long runs and you see that you know uh Creed was you know 10 fast is here whereas you know Bell ran you know long and like I mean you know we're running pretty much identical speeds at this range but that's I mean as I said we're not really ranking the practice laps that much where I'm just going through to answer this stuff and so people aren't like you didn't look at this or whatever um very unrealistic expectation that that Creed is going to beat Bell uh in any former fashion here off the Jump um long run possibly but I don't see it at the start of the race because of that whoever's behind Creed's just so man you know whether that be you know Bell takes the outside or the inside if you're stuck behind Creed who is not going to be side by side with bell most likely it's gonna be Bell by himself down the back straightway with Creed back in the field up or whatever because he's at disadvantage because he's going to be you know behind the leader on the start not behind the leader but like behind reaction time um so that hurts whoever's behind him or whatever Lane like if Bell clears himself and Creed can clear himself up whatever Lane he jumps into then takes a hit and so we don't see a situation to where Creed mayor AJ or even Chandler Smith I'm being more aggressive with the Creed mayor and AJ uh look here we don't really see an Avenue for these three individuals to get the lap or get to lead right off the bat okay I I don't realistically see that happening okay and then so what happens if Bell is that much faster than the field if Bell is that you know not even faster is even even the right word I really don't to use the term Dominator but real chance Bell can dominate this race um we're not playing these three individual drivers okay now that is the start of the race right we haven't talked about anybody else so then you tack on the who is who is Creed mayor AJ Chandler Smith fighting against from a DFS perspective okay people in the similar price range now you might argue that these guys are in the AK range you know some of the place differential in the race is in the 10K we have you know Gregson and legano and stuff at a slightly at a discounted rate even Jesse love at 78 and so you then look at Creed probably not getting the lead off the off the start mayor's not AJ's not Chandler Smith is not so we see that and then we to see them most likely being outscored by people who are starting in the teenss who offer Place differential and stuff so it makes CRA Sam mayor AJ pretty much unplayable um I would argue CH I would argue Chandler Smith as well we then get to Austin Hill and we see where Austin Hill has been um we see his price tag we see now yet again uh we can't lean everything on practice speed and this is you know very dependent on the session he was in uh because if it wasn't we most likely would have seen him qualify better if he had a real you know short run car you know because we we're clearly seeing that he was the fastest in practice people were like well why didn't he get the pole he clearly has the fastest car this is you know session dependent whatever but ran a long run knows he competing knows he knows he's gonna compete for the win he's he's not gonna have the fastest car 25 lap run that's you know that's just what the session was but we see where Austin Hill is at and we see him at 96 and we can see that when you look at Hill actually we'll go through all these guys really fast you look at Creed look at mayor no and I got to pay attention to what time the Slate starts because I got to add some more l so we're an hour and seven minutes away um we look at look at mayor we look at almond Dinger like we're just not getting there we look at Chandler Smith and the fall off he has had uh if I can spell Chandler correctly we've seen the fall off that Smith has had and so when we're looking at people who are starting up front who can lead this race who would fight for the laps LED who would potentially be in a spot to take the lead on pit Lane if we have you know wild cautions pop up at certain situations it's pretty much Bell and Hill at the moment okay Hill can directly compete against the guys who offer Place differential in the back of the field because he has the car and he has Place differential that he's going to K he has the most likely outcome to grab the lead on Bell on an early yellow even even just the stage one yellow um because everybody else who is going to compete has to get through the field they're going to have lap cars in between them um it's most likely that Hill is the guy who would give B the best R for his money on pit Lane which even then that is that is quite scarce okay and so now Contin to go through and and we've like identified like two people in the pool so far right and this is just how I approach everything but this is a pretty uh good slate to do that that's why I have this blacked out because guess what I'm going to be showing projections and stuff on the stream to better help share how I analyze these slates but we've identified these two guys here we're most likely not playing Jones herbs at 81 depend on what the projection is on what site you're using as I've said you know we look at Herpst like we're not playing Jones here like what is Jones giving us whereas Herpst at least now you might argue that these guys have had very similar um performances in you know what what ranking their their speed was at in these races I would say that we've seen shr in this series have much more consistent cars between the teammates this year and typically herps is usually right behind um Cole kuster we've seen Riley herps compete for uh getting quite a few laps LED and and fast laps in these races and him at 81 is is a price tag that I'm that I'm fine with but we're not playing you know we're not playing rlof um Parker 73 Sammy Cory Heim by default none of these guys are probably going to project at Value based on where they're starting because they're expected to lose at least two to three positions each when you start looking at everybody behind okay and so when we start looking at this slate now that we've identified this type of stuff yet again bondman salary don't got to worry about it at the moment like this is how we're determining oh what type of race this is is this a do you want two dominators do you want three laps like three lap leaders like you know so we've looked through this we see that we have pretty much you know a car that is heads and tails above the other guys he's starring around at a price tag that isn't that expensive really I mean this is a pretty soft slate pricing wise so we see a situation here to where the optimal lineup will then probably be dictated and the players will probably then be dictated by what salary or not what salary by what projection everybody has I think this will be a very projection based slate now you might say you know every Slate's projection Bas slate and and yes but I mean like we can visibly see where the builds can go here and what outs there are in comparison to other slates that maybe that's sometimes more ambiguous and maybe isn't as easy to see so when we start looking at the projections that I have for people yet again projection after a certain point really doesn't matter if Bell scores 66 or 112 points doesn't really matter okay but as we start going through and you look at value of where these people are at it makes it very difficult for these guys to pay off their price tag or be viable unless they get the lead and in order to do that we have to either see you know variant take over with people have mechanical issues we use Bell for an example like if Bell fails early well then clearly these projections won't be accurate for these guys because this is anticipating Bell is the you know clear lap leader for a majority of this race based on his starting position based on everybody else that you know so on and so forth and stuff but as you start going through and you look at these projections which yet again you can get a trfs now I'm showing it here because you know we're entering NFL season may maybe some people want to see what I'm working with or what I do or why I analyze things the way I do uh you can you know use the the codes at the bottom of the screen that I just went blank on but uh you can use that for your first month if you don't already have a month and the uh the NFL yearly code works on both new and existing um customers so if you are interested in the yearly package and you already have a subscription with us you can use that NFL yearly for 10% off a yearly subscription so as we're going through and we're looking at these projections here as i' as I've stated yeah sure 73 you know easy to get to but in terms of raw numbers that these guys are at we we start running into a lot of issues here of where people are going to be scoring especially if we're having to chase Bell now this discussion here which we will talk about the other side of this coin if Bell fails but we're approaching this discussion right now is if Bell is you need to play him he's optimal you know real chance he's the main lap leader and stuff so what happens in that situation here so you're at $11,000 for one of the guys in your lineup okay after that point we are looking at the move this here sorry we're looking at where and let me see where they at so we're looking at people who are then the next highest scores so we'll just kind of sort this really fast it's going to mess up the stuff on left but we'll just do this for an example uh you look at the top scorers here Bell Hill kuster Aly Elliott Gregson herps Love Now why are they projected at these ranges you know Hill is leaning a lot more towards starting position up front real chance he has a top three car in this race as we've seen in other races uh real chance he can be a lap leader if either loses the lead excuse me on pit Lane on a on a long run like Hill is the benefactor to that okay but kuster and Aly are pretty much identical plays okay their outcomes are equally as you know what's the word I don't want to use ambiguous again because then makes sound like I just picked up a dictionary and learned a new word but kuster and aly's projection do not matter they are the exact same plays and either they'll both score very similar or one will fail and one won't depending on what happens in the race but the fact that these guys are both starting deep in the teenss if not in the 20s if I'm not mistaken by default these cars over the course of the seasons which we have seen they've been able to get through and finish top seven top five top three that's where the projection has to be at that's where the speed is at for those cars okay now yet again this includes potenti laps LED and potential fast laps they might get but the raw points that kuster and Aly have in their place differential upside is easily you know 12 to you know 16 Place differential spots by default okay because of that they are pretty much going to default to at least the they're going to most likely fall in line between the third and six to seventh highest scoring drivers on the slates it's just going to depend on how far away they get from value and if they need to be forced in with bell and that can also be accomplished if the bottom just falls out in terms of projections like if you have you know 83 57 57 these guys in the 50s 40s and Bam just like piss poor value and guys like a shitload of guys in the 7K range and the 6K range scoring like 20s and like missing value well then it goes to Raw points to where you'll need these guys up here okay Chase Elliott by default same situation as kuster and Aly I would argue a slightly better car than kuster and Aly or you can say that it's the same you know whatever I I would I would lean the Hendrick Kar being slightly more or slightly better uh but then again starting a few positions higher up when you default kuster Aly and Elliot all you know expected to finish like in the top six seven and stuff well by default you know 's getting beat by kuster and ay you know and so that's situation where he's like he's 10K does he score you know 48 like I think Elliot could work if he's not scoring 5x but it's going to depend on what the rest of the Slate does as we continue to go down we have Gregson um start 27th who had a terrible Q lap um which is why he's starting back there and we can see that you know Gregson is gonna be a top 10 Contender top 10 on speed now this is where you will look at like okay is he is this speed justifying a 29th Place starting position or wherever he's at clearly it's not okay even with the tracks different you know we're seeing a pretty significant change in terms of speed between like a greggson and like a collie car and other stuff like that we we know greggson is is playing a running long we know this it's not an shr but it's an shr car like straight it's you know like it is an shr car like come on like 83 starting here like Gregson makes a lot of sense we see Jesse love who has you know struggled a bit but typically Jesse love is starting 11th and he's not $7,800 we see a very soft priced slate here okay and then so if we're looking at where this race is going to go value is only important I mean I like smithley the most I mean smithley and a in an alpha beta Prime Car way better than the JD Motorsports cars that that that we were dealing with with him and earlier uh you have Greg vanol who is like a fumbling Boon out there but he's starting last at 52 so Greg smithley Ellis Leland these are the four values I mean these these fellows here these are like the four values that you're using truly doesn't matter it's just going to be whatever God decides to do with these four guys of who works that that's what it comes down to Greg might work if we have you know six cars dnf him start last 30 second might be enough you know um because a lot of people don't realize that when you have so guys in the back of the field you know if there's a bunch of dnfs you know who benefits the most it's the guy starting farthest on back even if he's the worst driver because then if anything else happens in the race he's already guaranteed passing seven guys and stuff so These Guys these values all the identical or identical play literally just going to come down to what you need in your lineup salary-wise and I don't really see a reason why you would leave more than you know 400 500 maybe $600 on the on on the table today I don't really see a reason why you would do anything else other than that so you know we start looking at this slate in terms of build wise yet again starts in 55 minutes we anticipate Bell is going to be uh competing be optimal today and then you then look at where everybody else is projected at and you see situations to where I need to bring this up you see situations where where you see situations where waiting for scor in here so you see situations to where you know it starts regardless of what projection Source you're using Jesse love Noah Gregson Cole kuster Justin algy Joey leono are then starting to be prioritized because you know yet again and this is not how it's going to be but you know you can kind of see where the rankings are here you start seeing them being the drivers who are more likely to start scoring know at least over 40 points anybody any idiot can score like 28 points 29 Points but we're we're trying to get as many people who are scoring higher in these races as possible typically the optimal lineup is grabbing you know six drivers typically usually five outside of like the value the value is just going to be whatever forces its way in there but typically the opal is going to have you know five of the top eight DFS scores at the end of the Slate okay so then you know then it goes to who you know Jesse love uh Noah greggson looking like great plays today um Aly kuster whoever forces their way in through there legano if you need an Aki you know so on and so forth and so that's like the first part you know the the first type of build okay second build is then truly raw points which then we still see Jesse love and Noah greggson be there but then like raw points start to come through with like Riley herst Matt deetto Austin Hill um you know people like that you know and so that's a situation to where the place differential at the 10K range starts you know struggling to hit value they're at like a 47 48 you know Cole kuster might make it to any finishes ninth you know all guy finishes eighth these guys are too expensive they don't pay off their price tag you then start paying for the raw points and the cheaper guys Austin Hill you know herps I mean even [ __ ] even possibly like Chandler Smith or like Sammy Smith people like that like that's that's the Avenue of like where that goes the Third Avenue that I see potentially working today is an all Place differential value and all it takes is Bell hitting the wall blowing a tire blowing a motor speed on pit Lane if Bell fails especially if it's pasted halfway I have no clue how these guys work maybe he'll whatever take over I have no clue how anybody up here works if Bell leads like 80 laps he's up front blows the tire hits the wall whatever taken out of the race it then defaults to all Place differential so like today you know as I'm building my lineups I'm probably playing like you know 16 15 or whatever um you know probably gonna have 10 11 or so with bell four are going to be built without him three will probably just be Place differential plays in the 20s because this race 147 laps very limited on Fast laps and Laps Le potential if anything happens to an early lap leader or the guy who leads the first part of the race those points are thrown away and then play to becomes the absolute necessity in this field um and so like that's a very you know a way that can that can very easily happen if you just play you know legano Gregson Co Custer AAR like stuff like that like that has a very high potential to be optimal today if B fails okay um past that now that we've identified and we see you know different situations people work in um I would be personally capping ownership to Jesse love Gregson at probably like 45% um because they're going to show up a lot and I do believe that at this point with the ownership that will be pushed forward just in I mean this is my own [ __ ] but like you know like if we pull let's go ahead well I've already showed you this so it doesn't matter let's go ahead and bring up saber Sim and see what their uh product is is is pushing so oh and sheets even has his stuff out too uh we're going to change we're going to make we're GNA make a new build we're going to look at saber Sim stuff okay we gota we got we got to make a little tiny change detail so we can run this so we don't break no TOs and stuff so if we start running you know saber Sim stuff we'll just we'll run it like this no no real matter and stuff so let's see where you know saber Sim stuff pushes to we can run some Sims and just see the ownership or not the ownership but the exposure rates actually let's uh did I already hit that let's I want this actually I'm on the wrong one I want this here let's give a pull of 500 let's just see their top 500 exposure here so we look at just what sabersim has in general we'll look at uh I'm just look at projected score really fast so their projected score bell quaffle which I have not mentioned quaffle just real fast I am now you can clearly see I have him at 29 Points outside of do which he got sa like maybe I fell into it too because I I I ran issues of like hey I'm I'm playing more quaffle than I probably should in the PED you know find at short tracks and stuff but these races is like this do race yellows late you know potentially you know fought for the lead gets beat by Trux you know so on and so forth like even trick won that race because that race got funky at the end CAA wasn't that good of a car man we look at other races we look at Darlington in the I didn't even spell Darlington correctly there uh look at him in the spring 19th best car we look at how it was at Nashville you know 18th best car 17th best car I forgot how this works 17th best car like he's starting you know 27th or am I seeing anything from from like this and from what he's done here that's going to show me that Carson quaffle is like a top 12 car I'm you know I have exposure to them I I have in lineups but like I'm like I should probably be projecting Carson a bit lower and and probably project them to finish like 17th 19th this is where we're at here we look back at where Carson finished Darlington La this last time around and we see that I don't know if it was the Crown Royal let's take a gander really fast to race and reference uh because Carson has been finishing better than where he's been running in these races but we can still go ahead and look and see where he freaking finished really fast you gonna move again nope RAC okay cool we're we're behaving so we look at Carson here he fishes like 19th man that's a that's a race that went green I mean I mean not even green I mean we did have runs to the end not a lot of green flag R like that's 19th started 13th in in the in in in Junior Motorsports car like I'm per that mean that that's my justification for having his projection so low and I understand why he's projected so high here like we you know you understand of like understanding projections and what makes them what doesn't make them and having that is how you look at the slave like that I cannot emphasize that more than anything now like you might like somebody on a [ __ ] Tuesday you know because their you know their sports book line is like janky or like they're they're undervalued in the salary but like until we get to the [ __ ] slate like we don't know who's a good play who isn't whatever okay so we look here and we see Noah greggson having high exposure we see love you know top five exposure in these line in in the top actually we'll look at I mean this is exposure when we start looking at pool it'll still be the same so let's go ahead and just uh you know we'll run we'll run saber Sim stuff just to see and we'll we'll type in the high fancy name of the contest we're in uh so I know that that's that one we'll look at the 10 we'll just run what their Sims have really fast we'll see what exposure rates we get here in the in the pool and this is the highest projected uh the this wasn't by their like single game stuff or whatever this is just what the highest projected lineups have in in the exposure in the pool or the pool of you know 5,000 and in the exposure rate of the top 500 that I had here and these are like the builds that we're seeing and stuff is this done all right so let's sort this by this and see how this changes we practically see no change at all um between what the Sims are saying uh and where guys are at so we we also see that when we start looking at these projections you know you're going to see that you know I got let's look at this here I got Bell Hill kuster algy Elliot Gregson herps love these guys have Bell algy kuster Elliot Creed Gregson Hill quaffle love I mean this is like I said this is a pretty projectable type of of slate you know um but I've walked you through at least how I get there how I view that before I look at anything else before I build lineups like this is just looking at how you know people project and how they you know look to perform in this race okay so now that we've identified this let me go check the chat because after this we'll talk about like lineup construction what I'm doing here let me know if you have enjoyed this at all maybe I've been talking to you like you're an idiot and I haven't meant to do that um but I mean this is this is how I approach approach uh these types slate and how I look at stuff and then past that we'll look at like lime construction and things that I want to do that I'm personally doing to either get different or get wonky or whatever um yeah Keen I mean last night you know we got brixon Bush winning the bandalero race we got keelen Ren the legend I mean Junior should have won the cars tour race he didn't uh Big L there uh clearly the most inferior of the sons who were racing last night um paying the Rick today three TVs for oh yikes oh man I can't watch colge Dude I I've watched College Bas I've watched college football two nights in a row I'm already done I'm already tired of it it's already over it's already over I don't I don't even care um 23 car oh I guess I guess B I got the poll who cares I don't even look at that stuff yet um internet let's see Hills are second favorite to win I mean probably second favorite to win I mean I let me see what I got here if I'm looking at to win I have Bell kuster Hill Aly if that helps you in any form or fashion um so then we look at cph because I got a graph question here I'm I'm not playing them you know I just don't I just don't see the reason to do that um purely purely a projection based thing I cannot give him more than 30 points I just don't see reason why he needs 35 to hit value most likely be optimal we're looking at like 39 42 I just don't see it from graph I just don't I just I'm just not playing graph um thank you Daniels I'm glad that you like it I'm glad you guys like this I see 96 you guys here watching this I do appreciate it um thank you for the 20 likes on the video uh so now that we're at this stage we've talked about the builds we've talked about you know the different ways that can happen what am I personally doing in this race to get different so first and foremost I am heavily approaching the raw points in this race now I am I'm not going to do this on screen because I don't like showing lineups on screen if I can help it but I want to see really fast what saber Sim is doing versus what I'm doing here because I would imagine at least on the videos that you're or the videos the lines that you're paying up for people it's doing like Belle all greggson whatever I like the idea of running three 10K guys in this race I I think that's a route that can potentially work if they end up scoring you know like if not just Bell but like all guy and all guy and kuster together like really seem like an interesting combination having together and I like Cole over algy today um I am might be a projection based standpoint I mean as I said the projection between these two guys don't really matter they're identical like whatever's going to happen is going to happen but I like the upside that Co kuster has shown us like when like let's let's let's peel these two guys like cutting splitting the hairs doing everything here Cole kuster versus Jose Aly who has been better this stuff is showing Cole kuster has been much more consistent Aly has has two of the best cars but he he has had more you know ups and downs two two best cars here two second places here also up and down but I guess that's just you know Xfinity I would lean to K kuster probably being better than Aly and he's 400 cheaper um so I think if the field is going to go you know and this is just you know as I said I want to play allgar and Custer together but if the field is going to 10K guys it's most likely going to be Bell and all together I like going B and kuster together gives me a little bit more salary to work with um I like the idea of trying to get to more Lego today and yet again projection I'm at 30 38.6 but this is more of a you know a construction build like what who is he fighting against directly that is a greggson that's uh that's a that's a Jesse love um one I think grex needs to fail in those situations two um I think that type of build gets you different like if you're going to Lano um over somebody like Creed hers the Sammy Smith Cory Heim like I I personally like like that type of build I like I typically like builds that leave a very uncomfortable amount of like salary paying up for people who shouldn't necessarily pay it off like Lego's one today uh Clement is like Jeremy Clement is one today that I'm going to have exposure to just because I like that type of uncomfortable like starting position and projection like this projection is [ __ ] abysmal right like Clem is horrible Clem is like actually terrible like this is this is horrible but if I'm running a chalky build and I'm I'm play I'm playing Jeremy Clem you know uh I'm not gonna have I'm probably not gonna play a ton of of Chastain um like I'm really concerned about a performance like this out of out of this car CU it is a DGM car uh but like Josh Williams SVG Kyle seag I mean that that's kind of where I'm trying to get different today um by just by just playing some ugly ass guys who project pretty shitty um with like you know pretty like slam dunk type of lineups and stuff and I mean Ry I mean I love Ryan Ellison smithley today like Leen bit more expensive has probably higher upside but he [ __ ] knocked the fence down which isn't not not worried about a mechanical issue there but I I just think this is a race where I probably want smithley and Ellis they're not going to be as fast smithley is gonna take care of the car um I don't have to worry about smithley doing something stupid um but that's that's that's where I'm at today uh those are those are my opinions those are that's kind of my breakdown of stuff um and that's how I approach uh typical slates and that's how I look at you know each individual driver and stuff so let's see if there's any other questions really fast um let's see how much is too much a bell I like being aggressive on stuff people already know that we're probably going to see Bell be played at least over 45 maybe I I've had a really tough time gut feeling ownership for xinity and TRS this year it's been I'm usually almost always just under projecting into my head um so I don't know what Bell's ownership's going to come in at I'm probably gonna have him personally at like 55 50 but yet again I'm doing like 15 16 lineups because I think shit's full I didn't I forgot to reserve a full 20 I think I'm just at 16 or 15 um but that that's probably where I'm at and it's not even should you be over or under the field with the type of year we've had with value run into issues now yet again one thing does not lead to another if if chalk is always run into value that doesn't mean it's G to continue doing that but at Darlington with a car that's going to be this fast with somebody showing this amount of you know pretty much like a for sure type of optimal play I think the plus EV line or the plus EV play would probably be to have quite a few Lup without Bell so I I would probably cap Bell like a solid 50% in any in any probably in any exposure that you would have if it's [ __ ] if you're running four lines run two with bell if you're running 10 lines run five with bell you're running 20 lines run five with bell you're running 150 run 75 with bell um that I would I would cap him at at 50 and then I'd probably cap you know love and and greggson at like 4540 um more they have a higher likelihood of not working out being involved in a crash hitting the wall um whatever may happen you can you can lower them even more um but that that's where I would be at there so hopefully this helped you out hopefully you've enjoyed this uh I will be live tomorrow 11:00 a.m. eastern time talking about the Cup Series race at Darlington yeah they race tomorrow um past that we have 35 minutes until the lock until slate lock so best of luck guys I will see you later and uh hopefully enjoy this uh bye-bye