College Football Picks Week 1 Penn State vs West Virginia Prediction and Picks

Published: Aug 14, 2024 Duration: 00:05:30 Category: Sports

Tags : college football prediction college football predictions cfb picks college football best bets college football betting college football free picks college football picks today college football bets CFB Predictions ncaaf picks ncaaf predictions Penn State Football WVU football penn state vs west virginia psu vs wvu penn state vs west virginia prediction penn state vs west virginia picks Penn State vs West Virginia predictions psu vs wvu predictions

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well full disclosure this has not made my card yet but I'm certainly liking it a lot more so it wouldn't surprise me I make this line 12 you know if you look at the Gold sheet college football previews the top 25 you see the schedule we had a 12 there it was 10 and a halfs and now it's come down where I see some tens so that has piqued my interest even more now Penn State Dynamic defense best defense in college football listen to this last year they were number one in sack differential plus 33 sacks that's an amazing number to have 40 sacks on defense and only allow that few on offense and James Franklin uh let's see if we think about this game one year ago what did Franklin do with five seconds left left in his starter scored a touchdown had a front door cover to beat West Virginia at home so we know James Franklin is the biggest fan head coach and alumni head coach where he wants to cover the spread I went back to the database James Franklin remember he started at Vanderbilt in 2011 if you bet every game James Franklin has coached you have gone 95 and 66 59% if you have bet every game that James Franklin was a favorite of minus seven or more you have gone 54 and 27 against the spread 66.7% listen Allard had some decent numbers last year quarterback but he did not play well against the top opponents the Ohio State game the Michigan game in the bowl he struggled to throw the ball down field I think he's truly impro improved in that when I look at the opposition you know I see a team in West Virginia Neil Brown game one he's 0 and six straight up 1 14- one ATS as a small favored her dog West Virginia returns 13 returning starters eight on offense only five on defense and that was a defense that allowed 150 yards and almost 5.0 yards per carry against conference foes this Penn State offense will be a run heavy offense now the reason I did not get to the window with this yet is Penn State lost three offensive lineman starters now that's important but when all three offensive linemen were drafted in the NFL that makes those three losses that much stronger now they do have people that are backing them up that started five and six games respectively last year so they have a few part-time starters but when I look at their defense against a West Virginia offense that wants to try to run the ball they were number six in the percentage of runs per pass last year in the FBS excluding the three serviceis so they want to run they're going to try to run but Penn State's front seven is still so good on defense I don't think they can Allard with the addition of Fleming at wide receiver the o line has done well and the final stat I'll give you in the last three years when James Franklin has been a favorite up to minus 24 points so we're excluding games as a huge favorite of 25 or more he is 182 and one against the spread that is 90% that's a certainly a strong point spread record in this role and Ral I want to ask you about week one in particular because I find I Like to Lay points in week one a lot more than I'll L points at other times of the year it feels like all summer all the sharp guys are like well this dog is Live Well that dog is live and they find uh you know there's there's more attention paid that underdog in week one than there is to favorites have you noticed anything in that regard is that just me just cherry picking stats in my head and are you someone that also in week one looks to lay points more than you would take them you know Teddy um I I I probably I probably have a few more overs you know uh favorites in week one I'm trying to pull that up real quick sorry I uh had a typo uh if we look look at college football favorites in game number one since 2015 they've actually only covered 46.6% of the time so in general obviously dogs have covered more just to just to quantify what what your statement is now I've made I've been on the show several times talking about how big favorites week one have covered and significant week one favorites and I think we're going to learn a lot about our next chart which sort of correlates with that question so I really don't fall into a pattern in the NFL it's different I do like the dogs and I do like the roow teams in week one because the parody is so much different but with you know with a top to bottom of maybe 55 points difference in the power ratings you know that changes because of the the huge mass of lines you can have especially playing an FCS team

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