POST-DEBATE 2024 ELECTION MAP PREDICTION (First New Polls)

Following last night's presidential debate kamla Harris's lead over Donald Trump sits at about a point in the National polling averages now that is unlikely to translate over to an electoral college Victory that's because the electoral map does structurally favor the Republican Party according to Nate Silver's forecast a d+1 to d plus2 National popular vote lead would only give Harris about a 30% chance of winning today I'm going to take you through my latest predictions for the outcomes in every single States blending analysis of the latest polls with past polling errors demographic data shifts and Trends and of course the betting markets all in an effort to provide you with the most comprehensive analysis possible on who is on track to win this race in November let's start with these safe States for both candidates former president Donald Trump is almost certain to hold Indiana Kentucky and West Virginia the southern states of Tennessee South Carolina Alabama Mississippi Louisiana Arkansas and Missouri then there's Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska's Statewide contest and the first and third districts South and North Dakota Montana Idaho Wyoming Utah and finally Alaska Trump carried each of these states by more than 10 percentage points in the 2020 election and should again in November now KLA Harris will carry Washington Oregon California and Hawaii the Pacific coast blue wall then there's Colorado and Illinois and up in the Northeast New York Maine's First District Vermont Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland and finally the District of Colombia now each of these states backed Joe Biden by more than 10 points in 2020 and have not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in at least 20 years taking a look at the race to 270 electoral votes now Harris has 191 Trump has 12 5 17 States remain in play for both candidates and I will now assign a rating to each of them based on how strongly they lean toward either party first up the likely States now as the name implies these are likely to go to one candidate very likely at that but an upset is not out of the question like it is in the solid States for Trump this includes the Midwest tandem of Iowa six electoral votes and Ohio with 17 electoral votes now this is a tandem because they have followed nearly identical Trends over the last decade and a half voting Democrat for Barack Obama in 2008 and again in 2012 before then jolting hard to the rights in favor of trump in 2016 by a margin of nine points in Iowa and eight points in Ohio and then again in 2020 by eight points each it was Trump's strength among working class especially whites non- colge educated voters here in these two states that has put them almost entire ly Out Of Reach for Democrats at this point I fully expect Trump to carry both Iowa and Ohio by around 8 to 10 points again the former resident is also heavily favored to hold the second largest state in the nation Texas and the third largest Florida 30 and 40 electoral votes respectively here in Texas Trump's margin did drop from nine points in 2016 to just 5 a half in 2020 is Biden received the highest Democratic vote share 46.5% since Texas last went blue in 1976 but this may prove to be the party's Peak unless they can suddenly roll back the unprecedented Republican gains among Hispanic voters down here in the Rio Grand Valley that actually helped Trump win the same share as he did in 2016 52% and now here in 2024 the polls do show Trump expanding his margin up to more than seven points based on an average of the last three polls now moving on to Florida along a key swing state yet like Ohio and like Iowa it has lurched to the right in the Trump era he carried it by more than three points in 2020 it's one of only five states in which he actually improved his margin compared to 2016 then in the 2022 midterms Republican incumbents Governor Ronda santis and Senator Marco Rubio were both reelected in Landslide fashion both by more than 15 points each and now just like Texas we do see the former president president expanding his lead in Florida up to six points here based on the last five polls all of which show Trump up by at least three points all righty back to the map those four states lift Trump's electoral tally up to 218 now let's get to the likely blue States Harris is heavily favored in New Mexico five electoral votes it voted for Biden by 11 points in 20120 and remains strongly in the Democratic corner with the only poll showing Harris up by 10 she is also likely to hold the Statewide contest up in Maine in the Democratic column one of two states with Nebraska that split their electoral votes awarding two to the Statewide winner and one per District now Maine has consistently voted blue at the presidential level since 1988 and both of the polls so far surveyed here in 2024 show harrisa by a very wide margin so that wraps up the likely States now Harris's tally has been raised to 198 as Trails Trump in the race to 270 heading into the lean States before we get there though only about 20% of my viewers are actually subscrib to my channel so please take this second to subscribe below it's completely free and it does help me continue to make content like this all righty now the lean states have about a 65 to 80% chance of voting one way I would be surprised but not entirely shocked if they don't starting with VP Harris this time she should hold the state of Minnesota in her corner where her running mate Tim Waltz currently serves as Governor now Minnesota voted for Joe Biden by seven points in the 2020 election and while the polls showed a much tighter race while Biden was still in the race Harris is now led in both of the polls since he dropped out by at least five points ultimately if Harris does win this election she should carry Minnesota by at least four points anything less would be trouble the same thing can actually be said for the Commonwealth of Virginia and the State of New Hampshire as well Virginia voted for Biden by 10 points in the 2020 election the first time a Democrat has carried it by double digits since 1944 it's another state where Biden was polling terribly before he dropped out in fact Trump even LED in the real clear polling average in Late July now again though with Harris she has taken back the lead and then some up more than five points now based on the last three polls now Virginia is the kind of state that she should be outperforming Biden in with a relatively High share of black and young college educated voters a couple of demographic groups that Biden had been losing support with against Trump as for the State of New Hampshire the only truly competitive State here in the Northeast region Trump came within half a point of defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016 before Biden then returned it comfortably into the Democratic corner by 7 in 2020 now Harris is still underperforming that number in the polls right now leading by exactly 5% at this very moment that is a similar margin to Virginia and Minnesota and together these three states do lift her electoral vote tally ahead of trump now with 225 and that will actually increase by one is she is also heavily favored in Nebraska's second congressional district this Omaha base District voted for Joe Biden by more than six points in the 2020 election it has shifted more than 14 points to the left since Mitt Romney won it by seven points in 2012 so Harris again is likely to extract an electoral vote out of a trump state yet the same can be said for Trump over here in Maine where the second district leans in his Direction completely unlike Nebraska O2 m02 is extremely Rural and one of the oldest and least racially diverse congressional districts in the entire country it did vote for Trump in 2016 and again in 2020 by a margin of 7 points all righty that leaves us with the seven key Battlegrounds talked about all cycle long Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania here in the upper Rust Belt and then North Carolina Georgia Arizona and Nevada across the Sun Belt starting in the Rust Belt this Trio is often referred to as the blue wall States as they each voted Democrat in six straight presidential Cycles between 1992 and 2012 before Trump broke through in 2016 flipping all three by less than a single percentage points now Joe Biden did return them to the Democratic column in in 2020 by a little more than a point in Pennsylvania almost three points in Michigan and less than a point in Wisconsin this Trio did prove decisive in both Cycles had Hillary Clinton held them against Trump he would never have been elected presidents and then had Trump held them against Biden he would still be surveying a second term at this very moment now here in 2024 they could very well again decide the election polls in all three remain within the margin of error the average in Pennsylvania is exactly tied in Michigan we see Harris leading by a little more than a point and the same can be said in Wisconsin the vice president leads Trump by 1.5% now all three of these averages do suggest that the race is a tossup I strongly encourage you against making any strong conclusions based on just a one or two-point lead all they really mean is that the race is close in that vein all three are truly toss-ups but as this is a prediction Channel I'm going to give you my honest forast for the outcome in November right now I do have Harris as The Slight favorite in Michigan it is fundamentally The Bluest of the three and it'll take quite a push for Trump to flip enough voters here in just four years comparatively the 2020 margins were closer in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and contrary to the polls in the latter I have Wisconsin as tilting toward the former presidents that is largely driven by the fact that polls have greatly underestimated Trump here in the past both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden LED Trump by far greater margins than Harris does now and again Clinton lost while Biden only won by 0.6% Wisconsin is also the most Rural and the whitest and does have a lower share of college educated voters than either Michigan or Pennsylvania for those reasons many analysts do project that Wisconsin will Trend to the right in the future the question here in 2024 though is whether the issue of abortion can rally enough Democrats to hold it for now that could happen but I have Trump slightly favored right now as for Pennsylvania the Keystone State in name in practice it is the most important state in this election as its 19 electoral votes are the most likely to tip the race in either direction again it's a matter of which candidate has a slightly better than 50% chance of winning and again right now my answer to that question is Donald Trump Harris is just fundamentally a weaker candidate in the Rust Belt than she is in the sunbuilt she simply does not carry the same appeal to older workingclass white voters that Joe Biden had in 2020 and that is why you see her struggling to build a consistent lead in the states unlike Joe Biden who led by at least four points all cycle sometimes by as much as six or even seven points on that note it is another state that Trump has tended to overperform in and so if I had to give one candidate an edge it would be him as for the sunb region now lots of moving Parts again not a whole lot of clarity though Trump has consistently pulled better in all four states but on a previous results in demographic trend level they are each more friendly to Democrats as things currently stand KLA Harris leads in Nevada by 0.6% she has led in four of the last seven polls as for the State of Arizona she Trails Trump here as he leads by 1.6% and has led in five of the last eight polls with actually just one showing Harris in the lead in Georgia Trump leads by just 0.3% with the latest poll from Quinnipiac University showing him up by three Harris had led in three of the previous five finally in North Carolina surprisingly it is the closest of the four as Trump's lead is only 0.1% with a full 10 polls included in this average of which Trump has led in six and Harris in four including the last two both by 3 percentage points ultimately though again in each case the current margin is entirely within the margin of error neither candidate has a clear Edge in the polls and considering how close they were in 2020 it's not like the fundamentals are very strong in either direction either Biden held Nevada by 2.4% he flipped Arizona by 0.3% and Georgia by 0.2% while Trump held on to North Carolina by 1.4% now as for the betting markets they they give Trump a slight Edge in each States he's at 51% in Nevada 59% in Arizona 58% in Georgia and then 56% in North Carolina and on that note back on my map I have North Carolina is tilting Republican as well as the states of Georgia and Arizona while Nevada is tilting towards Harris now I'm not going to lie to you part of my rationale Behind These ratings is my gut feeling for what it's worth I did correct ly predict every single state but Georgia in 2020 so I like to think that my gut has some credibility anyways that does it for this 2024 presidential election map prediction and Analysis let me know whether you agree or disagree with these ratings in the comments below again make sure to subscribe to my channel so you don't miss any future videos shout out to my channel members on screen here thank you so much for your support if you'd like to become a member go ahead and click the join button below this video to receive exclusive perks please leave a like on the video down below if you did indeed enjoy it and again make sure to subscribe while you're down there as well check out more content from my channel here as always thank you so much for watching I'll see you next time EP out