My FULL 2024 Election Map Prediction for EVERY STATE! (September 2024)

it's September Labor Day is here and that means we're entering the home stretch of the 2024 presidential race as things currently stand KLA Harris leads Donald Trump by about a point or two in the National polls depending of course on which one you're looking at this one here Via Real Clear polling has her leading by 1.8% now because the Electoral College does structurally favor the Republican party that lead is far from guaranteeing her victory in fact she most likely needs to expand this lead out to about three to four points to feel reasonably confident in her electoral chances today though I'm going to take you through my latest predictions for the outcomes in every single States blending the latest polls with past polling biases as well as voting patterns demographic data betting markets and pretty much everything else you've seen me cover on this channel before with the aim being to provide you with the most comprehensive analysis possible on who is going to win this race in November we can start by filling in all of the states that are certain to remain in the Harris and Trump columns the safe Republican states for Trump are West Virginia Indiana Kentucky Tennessee South Carolina Alabama Mississippi Louisiana Arkansas Missouri Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska's Statewide contest in the first and third districts more on that to come South Dakota North Dakota Montana Wyoming Idaho Utah and then Alaska now Trump carried each of these states by more than 10 percentage points in the 2020 election and so there's just no point in wasting any time on them as for kamla Harris her safe list includes Washington Oregon California and Hawaii the Pacific coast blue wall so to speak then there's Colorado and Illinois the lone non- Coastal deep blue States then up in the Northeast New York Mains first First District Vermont Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland and finally DC Washington DC now these states all back Joe Biden by more than 10 points in 2020 and if not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 or more years so looking at the race to 270 electoral votes now Harris holds 188 Trump has 125 with a little less than half of the grand total 222 still up for grabs here across the 16 States and two congressional districts that will ultimately decide who wins this election I will go through them now assigning a rating either likely lean tilt or tossup after of course providing as much insight as I can into why they're in that category you can think of these ratings this way likely states are as the name implies likely to go to one candidate very likely at that but an upset is not out of the question at least not like the safe States lean and tilt states are those where either party has a small or slight Edge but the race is competitive and then toss-ups are where neither party has an edge and to give you a sense of what to expect as the night unfolds on November 5th I will be going through the states in order of poll closing time so starting at 700 p.m. eastern time precincts will close in Virginia and in Georgia as well as in most areas across the State of Florida and up here in New Hampshire those since some polling localities remain open here in the Panhandle and in some areas across New Hampshire until 8:00 p.m. the Statewide races here will not be called until at least then on Election night so let's start in Virginia once a reliable Red State then a swing state it's now strongly Democratic leaning Joe Biden carried the Commonwealth's 13 electoral votes in the 2020 election by a full 10 percentage points he was the first Democrat to win here by double digit since FDR in 1944 now Virginia's leftward Trend can almost entirely be attributed to the rapid growth and diversification of Nova Northern Virginia including the Washington DC suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria this combined with sliding Suburban support for Trump between 2016 and 2020 enabled a Biden Victory without his campaign even spending all that much time here saying all that though the polls here in 2024 showed an extremely tight race at least much tighter than expected between Biden and Trump before the president dropped out yet even now with Harris fronting the Democratic ticket she still only leads by an average of three points based on seven polls with the most recent two surveys taken here in August showing her in front by exactly three points each needless to say that would be a massive underperformance for Democrats even compared to Hillary Clinton is she won Virginia by Five Points in 2016 currently back on our map I've got Virginia as a lean blue States for Harris because of those tight polling margins though I do think it's closer to likely than it is to tilt is the fundamentals are strong for Democrats here and the betting markets seem to agree as they currently give KLA Harris an 85% chance of winning here via poly markets let's head on over though to our map and down to Georgia 6 electoral votes it was the closest state in the 2020 election is Joe Biden carried it by just 0.2% over Trump 49.5% to 49.2 6% is extraordinary turnout among black voters here in the Atlanta metro area along with that same sliding Suburban support and Rural support for Trump here across the rest of the state that we talked about in Virginia helped Democrats win their first race here since 1992 now here in 20 24 we saw Trump making real gains in the polls among Black and Hispanic voters which is an underratedly expanding demographic in the rapidly diversifying city of Atlanta and these Trends contributed to the former president's dominant performance in polls against Biden here he led by Four Points based on a 48 pole average again before the president dropped out of the race now with Harris at the top of the ticket those minority gains for Trump have diminished as I think most people would have expected still though Georgia is a traditionally conservative states with an often dominant rural Republican presence it's one of the most religious Battlegrounds and thereby quite socially conservative meaning the issue of abortion is not necessarily expected to Rally Democratic voters quite as much as we've seen it do in other states over the last couple years the latest polling average is Harris leading Trump by a tenth of a percentage point here based on 19 polls obviously entirely within the margin of error here while the betting markets still do favor Trump he's got a 58% chance of winning Georgia per poly Market's latest odds that is better than any other state that flipped Biden in 20120 back on our map now I tend to agree with the betting odds here just a little bit more still as I have Georgia tilting Republican for Trump he has led in the polls pretty much all cycle until just the last few days and with a partisan lean of around r+ 3 to R plus4 I think Harris will need at least a d+3 to d+4 National environment to hold it in her Corner similar to Biden in 2020 and she's just not quite at that level right now Al righty the next poll closing time comes around at 7:30 p.m. Eastern when the polls close in Ohio West Virginia and North Carolina now of course West Virginia is as a Republican as it gets but Ohio and North Carolina are worth monitoring at this time in the night the state of Ohio is less competitive less competitive than it has been in a very long time in fact it's right on the edge of the safe column for Trump after backing him by eight points in 2016 and then again in 2020 it was not that long ago though that Ohio was still considered the swing States and it did vote for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but ultimately Trump's gains among Whit non-college educated workingclass voters here and in the broader Midwest Rust Belt region which we'll get to here in a bit has shifted Ohio almost out of reach for Democrats and really the only reason I say almost is that they do have a popular incumbent Senator on the ballot this year in shro brown who's got about a 50/50 if not better shot at retaining this seat at the presidential level though it's pretty much all but forgotten about for Democrats is Harris is unlikely to spend very much time here and she shouldn't for what it's worth as the latest real clear polling average has him up more than 10 points based on the last three polls and also keep in mind here that the polls back in 2016 and 2020 did underestimate Trump by pretty severe margins here back on our map it's going to be placed in the likely Republican category though again it's right on the edge of safe as for North Carolina now for how competitive it always seems to be here in 21st century politics Barack Obama Remains the only Democrat to win in the Tar Hill State since 1976 and even he failed to hold it during his re-election bid in 2012 the GOP has now won the last eight Federal elections for president and for US Senate in North Carolina though they were each decided by less than six percentage points defining the state as a purple-ish yet still reliably Republican leaning States most recently Trump carried North Carolina by just a point in 2020 after having carried it in 2016 by almost four points now here in 2024 we do see Trump and Harris in an exact tie in the latest polling average drawing 48.1% of support each just as was the case in Ohio though it's crucial to note again that the polls have historically underestimated Republicans in North Carolina both Clinton and Biden LED in the final polling averages as did democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham in 2020 in fact he led in virtually every single poll but still lost now I do think that Harris's strengths as a candidate do play better in a state like North Carolina with a high percentage of African-American and younger college educated voters but unless she pulls ahead by a couple of percentage points over the next two months North Carolina will keep the same rating that it started this cycle with tilt GOP that brings us to 8:00 p.m. now remember I had said that Florida and New Hampshire officially see their polls Clos Statewide at this hour and so to the states of Pennsylvania and Maine up here in the northeast corner almost every County over here in Texas will also close and start reporting at 8:00 p.m. as well though since precincts remain open here in the southwest corner of El Paso the state will not officially be callable until at least 9 p.m. let's go ahead and get started in Florida 30 electoral votes it's the third largest prize in the nation after Texas and after California Republicans though have more momentum here than anywhere else in the country As Trump carried this once renowned swing states by 3.4% in 2020 the largest margin of victory for any presidential candidate here in Florida since 2004 it was one of just five states where Trump actually performed better than he did in 2016 and then even more recently in the 2022 midterm elections Republican incumbent Governor Ronda santis was re-elected by 19 percentage points and meanwhile Senator Marco Rubio also a republican was also reelected by a landslide margin at least by Florida standards 16% so while the sunshine States had previously commanded more democratic attention than any other states on the electoral map over the last two plus decades that is that simply has not and will not be the case here in 2024 the latest polling average Via Real Clear polling Trump up more than six points based on an average of the last four polls that would break the streak of eight consecutive election cycles in which Florida was decided by less than six points the longest such streak in the nation back on our map I have it leaning Republican for Trump here all right now if you are enjoying this video so far please make sure to take a second and subscribe below it's completely free and it does help me out tremendously according to my channel analytics page more than 80% % of you are still not subscribed we have gotten that down from 90% but again we're aiming for 50/50 byelection day thanks a bunch let's shift gears now up to the Democratic dominant New England region here New Hampshire and Maine are always the most and really the only semi-competitive States up here in this part of the country though neither state has voted Republicans since the turn of the 21st century Trump did come within three points of flipping both States against Hillary Clinton in 2016 before Biden then returned them comfortably into the Democratic corner by 7% in New Hampshire and 9 points in Maine polling here in 2024 has Harris up by an average of five points across three surveys in New Hampshire and while there is not yet a polling average available in Maine both of the last two surveys here showed Harris up by wide margins going back to our map I have New Hampshire as a lean Blue State and then Maine as likely blue now as for the second congressional district here in Maine the largest by area west of the Mississippi it's also one of the most rural oldest and widest districts in the nation all factors that help Trump carry it by 10 points in 2016 and then by a narrower yet still comfortable seven points in 2020 now currently the betting markets do give Trump a 76% chance of winning here which if anything is a little low in my view I have it down as a likely Republican here on my map last but certainly not least here at our 8:00 P.M poll closing we have Pennsylvania perhaps the most important states on the 2024 map Pennsylvania was the Tipping Point State in 2016 and would have been again in 2020 had Trump won the election now in 2024 according to every major forecaster out there it is again the most likely Tipping Point State this November is with 19 electoral votes it does represent the largest prize among the states that swung from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 exactly like the other two states here in the upper rustbell Trio or wimp is some label it here along with Wisconsin and Michigan Pennsylvania was part of the blue wall the voted Democrat in every presidential race between 1988 and 2016 when Trump narrowly flipped it by less than a point against Hillary Clinton then in 2020 Joe Biden returned his birth state to the Democratic column by 1.2% and now here in 2024 the polling again suggests we're headed for another razor thin margin the latest polling average via decision desk HQ has KLA Harris up a little over a point over Trump 1.2% here based on 34 polls scrolling down here you see two of the last three surveys added to this average showing the two candidates tied now again looking at the past polling error in 2016 and 201 20 Trump was again underestimated here in Pennsylvania by 4.8% in 2016 and then 3.5% in 2020 that's not to say that he is certain to overperform again here in 2024 but it does add some uncertainty to what is already a margin firmly within the margin of error as for the betting markets poly Market unsurprisingly labels pencilvania as a tossup right now giving Trump a 51% chance of winning in in other words not really better than a coin flip and I know it may cause some of you guys to complain in the comments below but I am also labeling Pennsylvania as a tossup and I honestly don't expect that to change until November to the 900 p.m. poll closing we go now this is when things are really going to start heating up on Election nights it's Battleground Galore here as the polls will close in Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa New Mexico and Arizona with the last Precinct here in El Paso Texas closing their doors then as well effectively all but one key State Nevada closes here in 9 p.m. let's go from right to left here starting in Michigan which will analyze in tandem with Wisconsin as again they are part of wimp the trio that flipped from reliably blue to Trump and then back to Biden now while Michigan is generally thought of as The Bluest of the three both fundamentally and demographically Wisconsin is probably the reddest as it is the whitest least college educated and most rural yet with that said all cycle long we have seen Democrats both Biden and now Harris as well pulling the best in Wisconsin VP Harris currently leads Trump by Four Points here in the ddhq average based on 24 polls that's Harris 50% Trump 46% whereas her lead is half that in Michigan at exactly 2% based on 22 polls now compar comparing that to the betting odds here Harris's odds are slightly better in Michigan at 60% compared to Wisconsin at 57% this may be driven by the fundamentals but also the fact that polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump in Wisconsin by a greater error than anywhere else 6.7% in 2016 and then 7.8% in 2020 going back on our map it is also worth noting that abortion rights have been a focal point of Wisconsin State politics since the Supreme Court struck down roie Wade in 2022 whereas the right to an abortion is effectively enshrined in state law in both Michigan and in Pennsylvania it is still in flux here in Wisconsin and since abortion is one of few winning issues for Democrats at the moment that could be playing a role in these more favorable polling numbers for them here whereas in Michigan there is a substantial Arab American population that has expressed dissatisfaction with the Biden Harris Administration over the war in Gaza and that could be contributing to kamla's relatively weak numbers here now with all of that said for those of you who have followed this Channel all cycle long you've probably picked up on the fact that I am a big fundamentals guy and by that I mean that the polls have really just been all over the place this cycle and I always say that the best poll we have is the last election and here in this case we have seen Democrat rats perform really strongly in Michigan over the last few Cycles even better than in Wisconsin Joe Biden won Michigan by 2.8% in 2020 whereas he only carried Wisconsin by 0.7% and that is why I have Michigan as a tilt Blue State here whereas Wisconsin on the other hand will join Pennsylvania as a pure tossup as I'm just not entirely convinced by the polls here right now it's just a dangerous state to place faith in that regard as for the state of Minnesota now you may be surprised to learn that it does hold the longest active Blue Streak in the nation having last voted Republican for Richard Nixon in his 49 State landslide in 1972 and even then you see here it was his narrowest margin of victory in that election since then it has often been competitive including the last few Cycles as Hillary Clinton just narrowly held off Trump by one and a half points in 2016 before Biden won it by seven points 4 years ago now in 2024 Minnesota is represented on the Democratic ticket with Harris's running meet Tim Waltz The Sitting Governor there and the latest two surveys had kamla up by six and then five points respectively back in our map I've got it as a lean Blue State here for Harris right now though like Virginia it is closer to likely than it is to tilt down in Iowa our last stop here in the Midwest before heading Southwest in all electoral effects and purposes Iowa is effectively the same state as Ohio it voted for Obama twice then back Trump by 8 to n points in both 2016 and 2020 as such it is teetering on the edge between likely and safe though since we have yet to receive a single Trump versus Harris poll since Joe Biden dropped out of the race it's going to be likely for now someone really needs to release a poll in Iowa as soon as possible all righty let's head on down the Southwest year for our final run of four states starting in Texas the Lone Star State has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in almost 50 years though it has become much more competitive over the last decade Democrats entered the 2020 cycle with high hopes of flipping Texas blue and thereby turning the electoral college math entirely in their favor but Trump's six-point win in 2020 dampened those hopes significantly his margin of lead did drop from nine points against Hillary Clinton in 2016 it was the narrowest here of the 21st century and Biden's 46.5% vote share was the highest for a democrat in Texas since 1976 but this was still a disappointing performance for Democrats considering that Biden pulled within about a point and a half of trump in the final polling averages in several forecasters had Texas rated as a tossup going into election day it was Trump and the Republican party's gains among Hispanics in 2020 that have since continued specifically here in the Rio Grand Valley in South Texas that put Victory Out Of Reach for Democrats even as you see the large Urban and Suburban areas like Dallas and San Antonio move in large numbers towards Biden while Democrats had been benefiting from the state's Rising population of college graduates younger voters and minorities Texas is 40% Hispanic rendering their losses among that demographic especially catastrophic here in 2024 Trump is led by a strong margin in both polls thus far against Harris and the betting odds do give him currently an 85% chance of winning those factors are all enough for me to place it down as likely Republican on my map New Mexico is next did back Biden by 11 points in 2020 which actually marked the first time since 1968 that New Mexico voted to the right of its neighbor Colorado which is now considered solid Democratic both States narrowly voted for George Bush in 2004 and have sent back Democratic candidates by margins of around 5 to 15 points in every election since now the fact that New Mexico is generally considered to be less Democratic than Colorado can entirely be attributed to its demographic profile it is the 12th least educated state in the country in terms of the proportion of residents with a college degree at 30% which is the lowest of any Biden one States besides battle ground Nevada and it's also the 15th most rural which ranks behind only Vermont in Maine up here in the Northeast among the least Urban Democratic states it's also the only majority Hispanic state in the US and so if Republicans continue to gain ground with Hispanic voters as we talked about over here in Texas that could potentially make up some of their deficit at least enough for me to project that it will dip into the likely blue territory for now penultimately in Arizona Biden second narrowest margin of victory in 2020 at D+ 0.3 Arizona had for a long time been considered a reliably Republican states is beginning in 1952 and ending with Trump in 2016 Republican presidential candidates had carried Arizona in 16 of 17 presidential elections yet at the start of the 21st century we saw their dominance begin to show cracks and now over the last 20 years or so Arizona has rapidly trended towards the political Center as Democrats have won the last four Federal elections for president and US Senate and the most recent race for governor as well here in 2022 when Katy Hobbs infamously defeated Carrie Lake by less than half a point now Arizona's Trend towards the political Center has been driven by the explosive population growth and diversification of Phoenix the fastest growing Metropolitan region in the entire country Maricopa County encompassing Phoenix is the single most important factor in determining Statewide elections here as it does contain about 2third of Arizona's population Biden became the first Democrat to receive the most votes here in Maricopa since 1952 as the split in Maricopa in 2020 50.3% to 48.1% in Biden's raav vote lead of 45,000 votes was just enough to overcome the slight Republican Edge across the rest of the state to help Biden win by just 11,000 votes looking ahead to 2024 now though the polls again suggest we're in for another close race in fact as of recording this video Harris leads Trump by just a tenth of a percentage points which you may remember is identical to in Georgia literally 0.1% here based on a 22 pole average with 47.8% to 47.7% pretty much as close as it can get here and then scrolling down again here among the last three polls we have one showing Trump up by four the next one tied and then Harris plus one so kind of all over the place as for the betting odds Trump is narrowly favored here according to poly markets with a 56% chance of winning now for what it's worth if I also had to place money down on this race I would probably bet on Trump but I really don't think he has a discernable enough Advantage for me to place it down as a tilting Republican state no I have it as a toss up at this point and I know you can insert your groans here finishing up the 9900 p.m. poll closing though let's head back to Nebraska's second district almost forgot about this one kamla Harris and the Democratic party has another great opportunity to extract a single electoral vote away from Trump in this deep red State as the Nebraska State Legislature failed to get rid of its split electoral system this Omaha based second district is rapidly left trending going from Romney Plus 8 in 2012 to Trump plus 2 in 2016 and then Biden plus 7 in 20120 now the district's lines were redrawn after the 2020 census to be slightly more favorable to Republicans but Biden still would have won the current configuration by 6.3% in 2020 and I have it leaning towards Harris here Al righty we are now up to the 10 p.m. poll closing and we have finally reached our last state Nevada with six electoral votes it doesn't necessarily hold the same electoral weight as the other critical Battlegrounds on the map but it certainly has the Intrigue to make up for it there are simply numerous positive indicators for Republicans here after Democrats have dominated Statewide elections for almost two decades since Barack Obama carried Nevada by almost seven points in 2012 Nevada has shifted Five Points in favor of Republicans relative to the nation since then and it does rank 44th out of the 50 US states in terms of the proportion of residents with a college degree that's the lowest of any state that Biden won in 2020 an important demographic note considering the partisan educational divide is growing deeper in deeper in this country and then in the 2022 midterms Republican Joe Lombardo flipped the governor's office while Republicans also came with an appoint of defeating a relatively popular Democratic incumbent Senator Katherine Cortez m but perhaps most notably the GOP received more votes for us house across Nevada's for us house districts than democrats for the first time in decades as for current polling perhaps no other state had been trending more positively for Trump against Joe Biden than in Nevada he led Biden by almost six points in the final ddhq average before Biden dropped out that's an incredible eight-point shift since the 2020 election now with Harris again though we have seen a diminishing lead in fact now the average has flipped back to favor Harris with a 0.7% lead now based on 14 polls 48.3% to 47.6% as scrolling down again we see the last three straight surveys have now shown Harris in the lead here and keeping that in mind notably Nevada is one of few states where polls have actually underestimated Democrats on average in years past and then as per the latest betting odds via poly markets we see the same odds is over in Pennsylvania a coin flip Trum for Trump 51% Harris 49% D Nevada is also a tossup on my electoral map which does mean that the current Electoral College projection places Donald Trump at 251 electoral votes leading Harris with 241 though neither candidate is favored in enough states to hit the magic number 270 I will though leave you all with a little bit of fan service here and give you my completely off the cuff not to be taken seriously predictions for each of the toss-ups at this point in time these are if literally there was a gun to my head tilting in favor of Harris are Nevada and then Wisconsin well for Trump Pennsylvania is tilt Republican and Arizona joins it as such giving Trump 281 and Harris 257 but again I want to stress this again and again they are truly toss-ups and it would not surprise me either way if Trump or Harris swept all of them anyways that does it for this 2024 presidential election map prediction and Analysis let me know whether you agree or disagree with these ratings in the comments below again make sure to subscribe to my channel so you don't miss any future videos shout out to my channel members on screen here thank you so much for your support if you would like to become a member go ahead and click the join button below the video to receive exclusive perks please leave a like on the video down below as well if you did indeed enjoy it you can check out more content from my channel here and as always thank you so much for watching I'll see you next time EP outs