The 2024 Election Map According to Prediction Market Odds

K Harris's honeymoon period may be over as Donald Trump is once again the favorite in the 2024 presidential race he has a 52% chance of winning entering the debate tonight according to the latest prediction Market odds in today's video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on the individual betting markets in every single state we'll Begin by filling in the solid States for either candidate these are the states where either Trump or Harris have a better than 95% chance of winning and starting off with the safe States for the Vice President Washington Oregon and California the Pacific coast blue wall is very likely to remain intact for a ninth consecutive cycle we also have Hawaii Colorado and Illinois the rest are all up here in the Northeast New York Vermont Massachusetts Road Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland and Washington DC Harris is also almost certain to carrye M's deep blue First District as well while for Trump he is going to win in Montana in Idaho Wyoming and Utah down the Great Plains region North and South Dakota Nebraska's Statewide race in the first and third districts Iowa Missouri Kansas Oklahoma and Arkansas and across the south Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee and South Carolina finally the coal states of West Virginia and Kentucky Kentucky and Indiana giving him 128 electoral votes trailing Harris who is 188 to her name right now next we'll fill in the likely states where either candidate has an 80 to 95% chance of winning so clearly these states heavily favor Trump or Harris but an upset is not out of the question starting with Harris her running mate Tim waltz's home state of Minnesota is likely to go Blue again for what would be a record extending 13th consecutive election cycle now Joe Biden did carry Minnesota by seven points in 2020 and the markets now give his vice president a 92% chance of holding the state in November Harris is also very likely to hold the state of New Mexico five electoral votes Biden carried New Mexico by 11 percentage points in the 2020 election and again we see Harris as the heavy favorite with a 91% chance of winning per the latest odds back on our map she is also favored to hold Nebraska's second district Democrats have an 81% chance right now of extracting an electoral votes out of deep red Nebraska Joe Biden did win this District by more than six points in 2020 and it is rapidly left trending Harris will also likely hold the Commonwealth of Virginia with its 13 electoral votes it voted for Biden by double digits in 2020 and while the polls this cycle have shown a more competitive race than expected the betting markets continue to strongly favor the the VP with an 86% chance of winning for Democrats in Virginia finally up in New England both New Hampshire and the Statewide contest in Maine are likely for Harris as well these are the only semi-competitive races in this deep blue Northeast region but New Hampshire still voted for Biden by seven points in 2020 and Maine by nine and now Harris's odds sit at 83% in New Hampshire and 85% in Maine she is on track to win them both by around 4 to six points in November before I continue on to the likely Trump states only around 20% of you are actually subscribed so please take a second to hit that free subscribe button below for more content like this leading up to election day now the likely Trump states start in Alaska Trump is almost certain to win in Alaska with a 93% chance of winning just below the safe threshold no Democrat has carried Alaska since 1964 but Trump's 10-point margin in 2020 was the narrowest for a republican since 1968 as for the state of Ohio 17 electoral votes once a key bellweather States now strongly Republican Trump has a 92% chance of winning according to the odds via poly markets and this comes after he carried the Buckeye state by eight points in both 2020 and 2016 moving down south to Florida now the former president is heavily favored to keep it in the Republican column for a fourth straight election 30 electoral votes the third most in the nation the sunshine state was for a long time synonymous with the term swing state but like Ohio is now firmly Republican leaning after Trump carried it by an even larger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 and more recently in the 2022 midterms Republicans Governor Ronda santis and Senator Marco Rubio were both reelected by more than 15 points each now poly markets currently has Trump with an 85% chance of winning right here that back on our map the slowly emerging battleground of Texas is also likely for Trump 40 electoral votes the second most of any state Joe Biden did receive 46.5% of the vote in Texas in 2020 the most for a Democrat since 1976 but even as urban areas like Dallas and San Antonio have trended to the left over the last couple decades the heavily Hispanic and right trending Rio Grand Valley here in South Texas is quite simply dampened democratic hopes of flipping Texas blue anytime soon po market now has Trump with an 87% chance of winning right now so between Ohio and Florida and together these four states do lift his electoral vote tally up to 218 just eight votes shy of Harris at 226 although that margin will actually drop to just seven as I almost forgot Maine's second congressional district it is also likely for Trump the largest District by area east of the Mississippi River it is ultra Rural and voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and he has an 81% chance of winning right now and so now we're left with the seven key Battleground States now these are the states that have been talked about the most all cycle long and for good reason is they were each decided by less than three points in 2020 and with the exception of Nevada which voted blue twice and North Carolina that voted red in both elections the other five states flipped from Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in the 2020 election here in the 2024 cycle neither Trump or Harris have a better than 65% chance of winning any one of them so no lean States just tilts in this update before we do get to the extremely competitive Battleground States though K Harris holds a narrow electoral lead with 226 to Donald Trump's 219 going in order of most to least competitive North Carolina tilts in favor of the former president 16 electoral votes it gained one following the census Trump has a 63% chance of winning according to poly markets now North Carolina Has Not Elected a Democrat to federal office since Barack Obama in 2008 as he failed to hold it against Mitt Romney in 2012 the GOP has now won not only the last three presidential races but also the last five Senate contests as well each by less than six points that has positioned North Carolina as an always comp competitive yet consistently Republican leaning State now here in 2024 decision desk HQ in the Hills polling average here has Trump leading by less than half a point 0.4% based on 19 polls in total that is 48.4% to 48% flats and Trump has led in five of the last six polls with the loone exception showing a tide race now the Harris campaign has sent many signals that they believe North Carolina is in play though given of course that it is truly the only possible flip opportunity for Democrats on the map they're probably just hyping up their chances for show the fundamentals remain strong for republicans and they do have a history of overperforming the polls on Election Day as for the states of Georgia and Arizona across the Sun belts these were the two closest States in 2020 they were both decided by less than half a point in favor of Biden completing their respective hard leftward shifts over the last decade now Republicans had long dominated Statewide elections in both States but there two major Metropolitan regions Phoenix here in Arizona and Atlanta in Georgia have grown and diversified at a faster rate than pretty much anywhere else in the nation lifting Democrats to Victory not only here in the 2020 presidential race but in several major down ballot contests for Senate and for governor as well yet here in 2024 the polling between Biden and Trump did show Trump making gains among young and minority voters key demographics in both States and the Topline averages reflected those Trends As Trump LED Biden by four points in Georgia before the president dropped out and then by 5.7% almost six points here in Arizona now with Harris in the race the polls are much more competitive as she and Trump are tied in the latest Arizona average based on 25 polls with both candidates pulling in 47.7% of support and believe believe it or not they are also exactly tied in Georgia based on 22 polls here they both sit at 48.4% in this latest average yet considering that the 2020 margins in both states were so close and the national environment is expected to shift a couple points towards Trump since then poly Market does give Trump an edge in both States right now Republicans have a 63% chance of flipping Arizona back into the GOP column identical to their odds in North Carolina and meanwhile in Georgia they have a 60% chance that means that both States tilt in favor of the former president on our map lifting Trump all the way up to 262 electoral votes just eight shy of the magic number that he needs to become just the second president to serve a non-consecutive term in the white house now just four states remain and are next two tilt in favor of Vice President Harris Wisconsin 10 electoral votes and Michigan with 15 electoral votes two of three states in this upper rustbelt Court Rio along with Pennsylvania they each voted Democrat in every election from 1992 all the way up to 2016 As Trump flipped them all narrowly in that election by less than a point each Flash Forward to 2020 Biden returned them to the blue column proving decisive as had Trump held just one of the three he would still be surveying a second term at this very moment now here in 2024 both Wisconsin and Michigan have trended positively for Harris since she became the Democratic nominee she does lead by a little under three points in Wisconsin based on 28 polls 2.8% to be exact with 49.6% of the vote to 46.8% she also leads over in Michigan by a point and a half with 48.6% ahead of Trump's 47.1% as for the betting markets over on poly markets they give her identical odds in both States it fits 56% each which does make sense as while the polls have been slightly better in Wisconsin Michigan is a fundamentally Bluer stat it did vote for Biden by 2.8% in 2020 compared to just 0.6% in Wisconsin together these two states lift Harris's total up to 251 electoral votes now 11 behind Trump in the race to 270 with just two states remaining Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes and Nevada with six according according to prediction markets Trump is slightly favored in both with a 54% Chance in Nevada and then a 55% chance in Pennsylvania now that is key as its 19 electoral votes are very very likely to tip the election in either direction this November and here in this case you see that they are the difference between a Harris and Trump presidency with Pennsylvania in his Corner the former president is projected to win 287 electoral votes and without it Harris would Edge out a win with exactly 270 so yeah there is a reason why so much news coverage is centered on Pennsylvania right now it is the Tipping Point State as always you can let me know in the comments what you think of this map as well as any other videos you would like to see in the future shout out to my channel members on screen here thank you so much for your support if you would like to become a member go ahead and click the join button below this video to receive exclusive perks make sure to subscribe to my Channel Down Below as well and please leave like on the video If you enjoyed it you can check out more content from my channel here and as always thank you so much for watching I'll see you next time EP 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