2024 Presidential Election Map Prediction in Every BATTLEGROUND State!

Robert F Kennedy Jr dropped out of the 2024 race endorsing Donald Trump so let's take a look then at the latest Electoral College map coming off of that announcement and thinking about where it may have the biggest impact at the time of his withdrawal Kennedy was averaging 5% in National surveys that is according to real clear polling's full field average comma Harris had led Donald Trump by two points here with 46.4% to the former president's 44.4% given that close margin rfk's withdrawal begs the question where will his supporters go now polling over the last few weeks had suggested that he was pulling more support from Trump than from Harris meaning that it is unlikely that RFK voters will all just simply fall behind Trump the splits is the question whether it's 6040 or 7030 in favor of trump could make all the difference especially in the key Battleground states that may be decided by less than a point on your screen right now is the Battleground map showing states that are very likely to vote for one party or the other categorized as safe likely or leaning toward either vice president KLA Harris or former president Donald Trump there's always a chance that the states categorized as likely or leaning here could become more competitive by election day potentially flipping in a landslide scenario but current national polling does suggest that we're headed for a competitive election Harris leads Trump by 1 and a half% percentage points according to real clear polling's latest head-to-head national average and is led by around 1 to 4% in 10 of the last 14 polls so returning to our electoral map if the national environment does remain as tight as it is right now with less than a four or five points popular vote lead for either candidate I am extremely confident that Harris and Trump will carry each of these states already placed in their respective columns that leaves us with just seven key Battleground States these are the swing states that entered this cycle as primary targets for both the RNC and the DNC and they Remain the states I fully expect to have the closest margins once all of the votes are counted they are Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania the core rustbell Trio and then North Carolina Georgia Arizona and Nevada across the Sun Belt now RFK Jr had qualified for the ballot in each of these states minus Pennsylvania and AR Arizona and could still appear on the ballots in some of these other states ultimately though we will probably need to wait at least another week or two to know for sure and to know whether Trump actually gets a notable Boost from the RFK endorsement before we move on though please take a second to consider subscribing to my Channel Down Below it's completely free and it does help me out tremendously according to my YouTube analytics page nearly 90% of you are not subscribed to the channel it would mean a lot to me if we could get that down closer to say 50/50 by election day but for now let's dive into the state of play starting with the regional Dynamics this rustbell Trio has decided the last two presidential elections Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania have voted for the same candidate as one another in every presidential election since 1988 they had long made up a key section of the blue wall before Trump broke that Democratic spell flipping them in 2016 each by less than one percentage Point Trump's emerging appeal to whites non-college educated workingclass voters in these states and the broader Midwest region including the two-time Obama states of Ohio and Iowa helped secure his 2016 Victory notably though had Hillary Clinton just retained these three upper rust Bel States for the Democrats in that election Trump would never have been elected president then in 2020 writing off of his appeal as the most quote unquote electable candidate in the Democratic primary Joe Biden flipped enough white workingclass voters who had supported Trump four years earlier to return these states into the Democratic column again though had Donald Trump held them in his Camp he would be serving a second term right now so we know that Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania are highly correlated and are likely to vote within just about a point or two of one another we also know that Democrats have put in massive over performances in this region since the Supreme Court Court overturned roie Wade as these states are all less religious and therefore more pro-choice than the sun Bel States especially Georgia down here in the Bible Belt in the 2022 midterms Democrats swept all three Governor races and outperformed the polls in key Senate and House races as well this effect was less pronounced across the Sun Belt where Trump has also consistently performed better in 2024 polling against Biden and now Harris than in the Rust Belt on that note the three sunbell states don't necessarily carry the same weights or history as the rustbell trio but they have still emerged as key targets for both parties over the past 5 to 10 years Georgia and Arizona notably have trended hard to the left in that time span going from reliable red states to now definitively purple in Arizona Republicans won 16 of 17 presidential elections held between 1952 and 2016 before Joe Biden won by 0.3% here four years ago in 2020 becoming the first Democrat to carry the Grand Canyon State since Bill Clinton in 1996 the margin 49.4% to 49.1% was the second closest in that election behind only Georgia which Biden carried by 0.2% also becoming the first Democrat to carry the peach state since Bill Clinton in 1992 now both States leftward swing can be attributed to the rapid growth and diversification of their two major Metropolitan regions Atlanta in Georgia and Phoenix in Arizona these are two of the fastest growing cities in the United States attracting a large number of left-leaning college graduates looking for work from left-leaning areas of the country this combined with an increase in turnout among Black and Hispanic voters helped push Biden over the edge in both States in 2020 which has since been followed up by a series of down ballot wins for Democratic candidates in both States as well Democrats have now won the last three US Senate races in Arizona dating back to 2018 as well as the most recent gubernatorial contest here in 2022 where Katie Hobbs defeated Carrie Lake meanwhile in Georgia Democrats flipped both US Senate seats in the high-profile runoffs of January 2021 and Then followed that up with another US Senate victory for Raphael waro then running as the incumbent against Hershel Walker in 2022 although they did fall short in the governor's race as for the state of Nevada now six electoral votes it is the smallest Battleground in terms of population and therefore the least electorally significant unlike Arizona and Georgia though Nevada has actually trended to the right in recent years as Republicans have made gains among Hispanic voters a key racial demographic here and the fact that Nevada ranks 44th out of the 50 US states in terms of the propor of residents with a college degree that is the lowest of any state that Biden won in 2020 and it's significant because voters with a college degree do tend to lean left while those without lean right and that Divergence is grown at an astronomical rate in the Trump era now here in 2020 Biden did carry Nevada by 2.4% an identical margin to Hillary Clinton in 2016 which does mean that Nevada actually trended to the rights between those elections relative to the nation since Biden won the national popular votes by a greater margin than Clinton did Republicans then capitalized on that Trend by flipping the governor's race in 2022 and coming with an appoints of unseating a reasonably popular Democratic incumbent Senator as well not to mention they received more votes across Nevada for us house races for the first time in decades finally going back over to North Carolina a perennially purple yet Republican leading state where Republicans have now won eight straight contests for president and for Senate notably though each of those races were decided by less than six percentage points hence perennially purple it always does seem to be in play for the Democrats down the stretch yet they always fall short here in 2024 the Harris campaign is clearly making a concerted effort to push themselves over the top this time rounds and that has been reflected in the polling data which we'll get to in a second so that's the lay of the land in in these individual states like I had touched on earlier Trump consistently pulled better against Biden in Nevada Arizona Georgia and North Carolina than he ever did in Pennsylvania Michigan or Wisconsin and that has carried over to polls with Harris as well at the time of recording this video Harris leads Trump by 3.3% based on 19 polls in Wisconsin that is her largest margin of lead in any of these states and she also leads Trump by 2.5% based on 16 polls in Michigan as well as the Keystone states of Pennsylvania 1.1% based on 29 polls comparing that to the Sun Belt quartet Trump is ahead in Nevada by exactly one point based on 19 polls and he leads in Arizona albeit by a single tenth of a per 0.1% based on 15 polls his widest margin currently can be found in Georgia at 2.7% based on again 15 poll and then finally in a major turn of events over the last week or so Harris has taken the lead in North Carolina by 1.1% based on 10 polls so now all six polling averages are within or hovering around the margin of error and there is definitely a contrast there between the two regions it's a difference that is also reflected in the latest betting Market odds via poly Market where Trump's odds of winning Nevada sit at 51% Arizona 50 5% Georgia 61% and then North Carolina 60% meanwhile Trump and Harris are almost perfectly split in Pennsylvania at 51 to Trump 49 to Harris while Harris has a clear Edge in Michigan at 61% and in Wisconsin at 57% now going back to our Battleground map if you were to ask me my personal opinion on how the results will Shape Up 70 days from now I would Place Michigan down as til Democrat while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both remain as tossup while the polling in Wisconsin this cycle has been really good for Democrats I simply refus to make the same mistakes as in 2016 and 2020 where Trump notably outperform the polls by more than six percentage points on both occasions Wisconsin is also just a fundamentally more Republican state than both Michigan and Pennsylvania as well with a demographic profile that doesn't feel particularly Suited to KLA Harris's candidacy it's more whites more Rural and has a lower percentage of college educated residents than the other two the abortion issue though is truly Democrats last Saving Grace here which is strong enough at least in the short term to give them at least 50/50 odds right now Pennsylvania meanwhile is Pennsylvania I don't think it's going to move much from 50/50 until election day down in the Sun Belt I do still have North Carolina is tilting towards Trump again polls have trended towards Democrats in recent weeks but similar to Wisconsin we have seen that film before and North Carolina is definitely the most Republican leaning of the seven Battlegrounds fundamentally speaking I also have Georgia as a tilt Trump States as another fundamentally more Republican states than the others this is Trump's best polling State at the moment and while it has of course shifted hard to the left in recent years Democrats will still need a whole lot of things to go right in order to keep it in their call after Biden carried it by just 0.2% in 2020 again his slimmest margin of any states now the party has recently relied on the 90330 rule for victories in the peach states where in order to win they need to get 90% of the black votes and 30% of the white vote with an electorate that is at least 30% black Comm Harris should give Democrats a better shot at reaching those numbers than Biden would have but cross tab aggregators still do suggest that at least some of Trump's inroads among minority voters are here to stay those gains will also help him out in Arizona and Nevada though Harris's Topline polling numbers look a lot better right now in both of these states and Democrats have seen more success in Statewide elections here recently in fact it has now been eight years since Republicans have won a federal election in Arizona As Trump last won the state in 2016 for those reasons I do still have Arizona as a tossup and Nevada as well so that does it for this 2024 presidential election map prediction and Analysis neither candidate hits the necessary 270 electoral votes As Trump currently leads with 251 electoral votes to KLA Harris's 241 with 46 left up for grabs in Nevada Arizona Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as always let me know whether you agree or disagree with these ratings in the comments below shout out to my channel members on screen here thank you so much for your support if you'd like to become a member go ahead and click the join button below this video to receive exclusive perks make sure to subscribe to my Channel Down Below as well and please leave a like on the video If you enjoyed it you can check out more content from my channel here and as always thank you so much for watching I'll see you next time EP outs