PENNSYLVANIA PREDICTON | 2024 Presidential Election

welcome to the EP official state-by-state prediction series we begin with Pennsylvania the Keystone State both in name and in practice it was the ultimate Battleground in the last two presidential cycles and is once again the focal point of the 2024 campaign as both KLA Harris and Donald Trump dedicate more time and resources here than anywhere else taking a look at the electoral map seven states have been talked about all cycle along as key Battlegrounds in Pennsylvania's 191 electoral votes are the largest single prize among those states that does make it the most likely Tipping Point States meaning that it is most likely to push either candidate above the necessary 270 electoral vote total as things currently stand vice president Harris has a narrow lead among the states that are likely to vote in One Direction with 226 electoral votes over former president Trump's 219 and 93 votes dispersed among the seven key toss Subs all seven of which were decided by less than three percentage points in 2020 and five of them swung from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 now let's take a look at the data that I will be using to project the outcome here in Pennsylvania starting with past presidential election results now Democrats have won five out of six races in the state since the turn of the 21st century but if we extend that back to 1992 they have secured victory in nine of the last 10 presidential Cycles so historically Pennsylvania was a key part of the blue wall a stronghold of blue color white working class voters that formed the backbone of the democratic electorate throughout the 1990s and 2000s yet in 2016 amid Donald Trump's appeals to these kind of Voters he won by a slim margin of 0.7% in 2016 and he does have an opportunity to become the first Republican president to win Pennsylvania twice since Ronald Reagan now Trump did lose Pennsylvania in 2020 against Joe Biden by a margin of 1.2% yet if we take a look here at how the state has voted compared to the nation at large Pennsylvania actually voted further to the right in 2020 than it did in 2016 3.3% compared to 2.8% that's because Biden won the national popular votes by 4 and a half points compared to Hillary Clinton's two points the 2020 election marked the first time since 1948 that Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation in consecutive elections and so as a result the cook partisan voting index in 538s partisan lean scores have Pennsylvania at R +4 and r+ 3 respectively both of these numbers measure how the state leans compared to the nation as a whole based on how it voted in previous elections to better illustrate that pro- Republican shift though in Pennsylvania at the state level over recent years let's also take a look at the trends over the last few Cycles Les now between 2016 and 2020 Pennsylvania moved half a percentage point to the right compared to the national average and when we Zoom that out further the state has shifted nearly five points towards Republicans since 2012 and a full seven points since 2000 in that election Pennsylvania voted for Al Gore a Democrat by 4.2% while his National margin over George Bush was only 0.5% but then in 2020 as we saw earlier the state had swung to become 3 .3% more Republican than the national average so a full seven-point shift of the right over those 20 years that all being said recent Statewide elections for US Senate and Governor have still been dominated by democrats since 2014 Democratic candidates have won five of six such races with three of them decided by at least 13 percentage points in their favor most recently in the 2022 midterms John fedman defeated Dr RZ in a highly contested open us race in which Oz had held a polling Advantage headed into election day now as a result Democrats currently control both US Senate seats while they have maintained the governorship a majority of Pennsylvania's US House Congressional Delegation and the State House of Representatives as for the polling data assessing the head-to-head contest between Harris and Trump right now all five notable polling averages show a race that is firmly within the margin of error 538 and decision desk h q/ the hill give Harris a slight lead of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively while the silver bullettin from 538 founder Nate silver has her ahead by 0.3% and the Washington Post gives Harris a two-point lead on the other hand real clear polling and the New York Times both show the candidates tied now the takeaway from these numbers is clear the race is a tossup leads of one or two points or less than a point in this case are simply not worth looking too deeply into the only thing that is certain is that it is extremely close and on that note all five highly respected forecasts cook sabados crystal ball split ticket ddhq inside elections and 538s all agree that Pennsylvania is a tossup with neither candidate having a clear Advantage at this point likewise the prediction Market betting odds do track with these ratings poly Market has Trump as a slight favorite with a 52% chance of winning whereas metaculus and bet online both give Harris a slight edge with a 53% chance of winning and the odds at minus 130 finally let's take a look at Pennsylvania's demographic profile now if you had showed me these numbers without context and simply asked for a prediction of the state's partisan lean I would say that Pennsylvania looks highly competitive but with a slight Democratic Edge as well it does rank among the top 20 whitest states in the nation a factor that does generally favor Republicans it also ranks in the top 20 for residents with college degrees and that tends to benefit Democrats back in 2020 Trump either won or came within single digits of Biden in 19 of the 20 whitest States while Biden carried 18 of the 20 states with the highest levels of educational attainment in terms of religion 63% of pennsylvanians identify as religiously Affiliated and that ranks 33rd religious voters do tend to lean more Republican so if any thing this data point actually favors Democrats further complicating things though Pennsylvania is the eighth oldest state by median age and older voters do tend to lean conservative well it's also the eighth most urbanized States and ranks 21st in median household income again in 2020 Biden won 16 of the 20 most Urban and 18 of the 20 wealthiest States now in our final slide before we get into the prediction itself let's take a quick look at the county level results from the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania Joe Biden carried the state by 1.2% with a raw vote lead of about 80 A5 thousand votes and while Trump managed to again turn out his base in very large numbers across Pennsylvania's more Rural and Republican dominated Western counties Biden did manage to reclaim two of the three large industrial counties that had voted Democratic for at least six consecutive elections before Trump flipped them in 2016 Yuri up here in the northwest corner in Northampton another major key to Biden's success in the state was his Improvement on Hillary Clinton's margins in the large Philadelphia area Suburban counties his margins in Bucks Montgomery Delaware and Chester counties were each at least three and a half points better than Clinton however Biden's vote share in Philadelphia County itself actually declines slightly compared to Hillary Clinton's that Trend may continue even further in 2024 As Trump looks to make gains among black voters in inner cities all righty it's time now for the prediction section of this video Let's Flash Forward to election night on November 5th [Music] 2024 polls are about to close at 8:00 p.m. eastern time with the first votes expected out of Pennsylvania right [Music] now it's too early to call in Pennsylvania no surprise the Keystone State is one we're going to be keeping a close eye on as the results come in tonight one of the closest states in the last two presidential Cycles it's very early just about 2% of the estimated vote is reporting right now and vice president Harris has a very early advantage 74.2% to 23 3.5% no surprise here as Democratic candidates do always jump out to an early lead in Pennsylvania thanks to the first vote drops out of democratic friendly urban areas before the more Republican friendly election day votes are likely to come in and flip this lead to Trump over the coming hours the question just like in 2020 is will the outstanding absentee votes out of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh be enough to then again flip this race in favor of Harris down the road only time will tell [Music] we've got another key race alert out of Pennsylvania now kamla Harris maintains her early Advantage with 15% of the estimated vote now reporting 64.5% to 32.9 % it's a 322,000 vote lead for the vice president over the former president right now 19 electoral votes at Stak in Pennsylvania a key Battleground tonight [Music] take a look at this our first look at the county level returns out of Pennsylvania where Harris's early lead has narrowed significantly here as expected with 24% reporting now it's a raw vote margin of 120,000 votes separating the Democrat from the Republican 52.4% to 45% and we do have votes in from almost every county in the state keep in mind though that these initial margins are not necessarily indicative of the final results as the election day vote is coming in much faster than the absente votes we do still have a long way to go before we can make any definitive conclusions though the early reports coming in from the Trump HQ are that he is hitting internal Targets in the key County so [Music] far he alert out of Pennsylvania where Donald Trump has taken a near 60,000 vote lead over Harris now as expected the vice president's early lead has completely evaporated as we now have almost half of the vote in from across the states it's 49.8% to 47.8% with 43% reporting almost 3 million votes have been counted 19 electoral votes again are on the line in Pennsylvania 49.8% Trump 47.8% Harris right now [Music] take a look at this now with 60% of the estimated vote reporting out of Pennsylvania we are seeing a strong Trump vote share continuing right now is just in 2020 we are seeing the election day vote coming in much more favorably for the Republican candidate it's 52.8% to 44.8% with 326,000 votes separating Trump and Harris in the Keystone States [Music] we've got another update out of Pennsylvania 83% of the vote is in now and Trump's vote lead has narrowed down to less than 250,000 votes and we do have votes reporting from every county in the state now though again keep in mind that much of the outstanding votes the absentee and late arriving mail and ballots are expected to lean heavily in favor of kamla Harris just like in 20 20 when we did see Trump leading by a similar margin to what he is built right now before the Democrat closed that Gap and ultimately prevailed it's a matter of whether Trump has built a large enough firewall here with the election day votes it is shaping up to be another very close race here in Pennsylvania and we will be back with more results right after the break [Music] key race Alert in Pennsylvania is Donald Trump's lead continues to narrow over kamla Harris the former president has a 49.4% vote chair right now to the vice president's 48.2% 96% of the estimated vote is now in and Trump has received 3.23 million votes ahead of Harris's 3.15 for a gap of less than 100 100,000 votes right now the red Mirage is once again fading but will it be [Music] enough here we go EP official projects that Donald Trump has won the state of pen Pennsylvania carrying its 19 electoral votes Donald Trump is the winner in Pennsylvania it's a huge pickup for his campaign one that might just deal a fatal blow to vice president K Harris's chances tonight the former Republican president Trump EP projects is the winner in Pennsylvania defeating Harris as we take a look here at the final results Trump leads by 27,000 votes with 49% to 48.6% it's a margin of less than half a percentage Point 0.4 4% narrower even than Trump's 2016 margin over Hillary Clinton though of course that won't matter here is the Trump campaign would probably have been happy to secure Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes by even just one single vote as you take an updated look here at the Battleground map and the race to 270 electoral votes with that win in Pennsylvania Trump's tally is lifted to 238 just 32 votes shy of that magic number now his most efficient path from here on out to the White White House would be with victories in North Carolina and in Georgia whereas for VP Harris on the other hand without Pennsylvania her path Narrows significantly she will need to hold at least three of the five remaining toss-ups but more likely than not four out of the five on that note please make sure to subscribe to my channel and hit that notification Bell so you don't miss any future predictions in this series feel free is always to 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