2024 US Senate Map Predictions Based on the Latest Poll in KEY RACES!

let's fill out a 2024 US Senate map based on the latest polls taken in the most competitive races Democrats must defend 23 of the 34 Senate seats up for election this November including eight of the 10 most competitive races and three seats in states that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020 those are Montana Ohio and West Virginia needless to say the 2024 US Senate map is extremely favorable for republicans they have an 82% chance of securing a majority per decision desk hq's latest forecast now let's first fill out all of these safe seats for both parties where their chances of winning according to this forecast is greater than 95% for Democrats that includes Washington California and Hawaii New Mexico Minnesota and then up in the Northeast New York Vermont Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware and Maryland for me the only question mark here is Maryland former Republican Governor Larry Hogan is running for Senate he was incredibly popular throughout his two terms in office and is pulled competitively against Angela also Brooks the Democratic nominee here though of course Hogan faces an extreme uphill fundamental battle in this deep blue state that Biden won by 33 points in 2020 otherwise democrats should have no concerns whatsoever in holding the rest of these solid blue States for republicans their safe seats are in North Dakota Wyoming and Utah Nebraska's regular and special election Missouri Tennessee Mississippi West Virginia and Indiana these are all solid Trump States at the presidential level and have no unique circumstances that would render them competitive here notably West Virginia is going to be a flip as Democratic incumbent Senator Joe Manion is retiring setting up the sitting GOP Governor Jim Justice to win in a landslide this November in this Trump plus 40 State all righty that leaves us with just 11 states not yet rated Republicans already hold a 48 to 41 seat Advantage as a product of the massive fundamental advantage that they enjoy on this map if Trump takes back the White House Republicans would only need to win two of the 11 remaining states to secure a majority with the VP tiebreak but even if Trump does lose to kamla Harris winning three of 11 of these seats is still very favorable let's go ahead and start in Montana a very closely watched contest between incumbent Democratic senator John tester and his Republican opponent Tim sheii a Navy SEAL turned Aerospace CEO now tester has managed to win re-election twice in deed Montana thanks to his increasingly atypical popularity across the political Spectrum he is facing tougher re-election odds though this November than he ever has before because split take a vot voting is an all-time low meaning that fewer voters than ever are casting their ballots for presidential and Senate candidates of different parties Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 percentage points in 2016 and then by 16 in 2020 and he should Win It Again by at least 15% this November now the last time that tester ran in a general election he did outperform Barack Obama by 18% in Montana but again that is going to be extremely difficult to replicate in a much more polarized political environment here in 2024 the latest survey released by American pulse research is sheii leading tester by six points 50.8% to 44.7% among 538 registered voters surveyed between August 10th and August 12th now sheii is a relatively strong Republican recruit and by that I mean that he doesn't come with the same electability concerns as many of the Republican party's unsuccessful nominees in Battlegrounds back in 2022 and that's going to make things even more difficult for tester as we place Montana down as leaning Republican moving right on down to Nevada we have another competitive race here between incumbent Democratic senator Jackie Rosen and her Republican opponent US Army veteran Sam Brown Rosen was first elected in the Blue Wave of 2018 by 5% over then incumbent Republican senator Dean heler Nevada may have the nickname The Silver State but electorally speaking it is as purple as it gets as both of the last two presidential contests went to Democrats by less than 2 and a half percentage points while Republicans flipped the governor's office in 2022 the latest survey released by Redfield and Wilton strategies his Rosen leading Brown by Four Points among 536 registered voters surveyed between August 12th in 15th it seems like each poll released here in Nevada seems to be showing a tightening race now the Brown is officially the Republican nominee and more voters have become familiar with him he is again a much less problematic nominee so to speak for Republicans than 2022 candidates like Hershel Walker over in Georgia and Dr Oz in Pennsylvania who both massively underperformed the fundamentals now here in 2024 most forecasters do generally agree that Rosen holds an edge as the incumbent here in a state that is likely to be decided by just a point or two either way at the top of the ballot for now Nevada's Senate race is marked as leaning Democrat with that four-point lead for Rosen let's go down to Arizona now another key Battleground in the presidential race the Senate contest is also expected to be highly competitive incumbent Senator Kiren Cinema opted against running for re-election as an independent she does continue to caucus with Democrats in the Senate but the party nominated Congressman Ruben gyo as their candidate to face Republican Carrie Lake who did come less than half a point from winning the 2022 Arizona governor race now for a long time Arizona was a republican stronghold but Democrats have now won the last five major Statewide races here for president Senate and Governor the latest poll surveying the race between gyo and Lake comes from Sienna College with the New York Times a highly reputable pollster and this survey shows gyo leading Lake by 9 percentage points here 51% to 42% among six 677 likely voters surveyed between August 8th and 15th now comparatively in the presidential version of this same survey Harris leads Trump by only four points so gyo is outrunning Harris by five points at this point we've become used to seeing this kind of Senate over performance for Democrats as before Joe Biden dropped out of the race we would often see polls showing him trailing Trump in the presidential contest yet the Democratic Senate candidate out in front that was both a testament to buy 's unpopularity but also the relative strength of the democratic party's nominees this cycle tester Rosen and gyo are all above average nominees in terms of their previous electoral strength and here in Arizona with gyo up nine points in the latest survey it goes down as likely Democrat shifting over to Texas incoming Senator Ted Cruz is For Better or For Worse one of the most well-known senators in the country you either love him or you hate him he's running for a third term after coming suprem surprisingly close to losing in 2018 against popular Democrat Betto oor Cruz won by just 2.6% the closest Senate contest here in Texas since 1978 he should have less of a problem this November against Democratic nominee Congressman Colin alred thanks in part to the fact that Donald Trump should carry Texas by at least six points against KLA Harris and the presidential race now yugov and the University of Texas have cruise up only two points over all red among almost 1,400 likely voters surveyed between August 5th and 16th this is a narrower margin than in most surveys we've seen here this cycle though as we take a look at the polling average via decision desk HQ and the hill you do see the overall margin narrowing over the last couple weeks down to just 3.4% based on 19 polls here back on our map we're going to place Texas down as tilting towards the GOP with a two-point latest polling Advantage for Ted Cruz next is the Sunshine State Florida Republican incumbent Rick Scott is seeking a second term in the Senate after first being elected by just a tenth of a percentage point in 2018 now this 2024 race is going to be much less competitive as Florida has shifted hard to the right over the last couple election cycles and the latest poll by mclin and Associates surveyed between August 6th and 8th shows Scott leading his likely Democratic opponent former congresswoman Debbie mucal Powell by 10 points among 800 likely voters that of course means that Florida is a safe Republican state here on our map remember back in 2022 Republican incumbent Governor Ronda santis won re-election by 19 points and Republican senator Mar Rubio also by 16 points Florida really has shifted hard to the right and now back on our map take a look at the updated C count now Republicans are projected to win 51 seats a clear majority that would hold up even if Trump loses the presidential race let's head over to Virginia now though incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine leads his Republican opponent Hong CA here in the Commonwealth by 11 points according to this Rowan Oak College survey from August 12th through 16th you may remember Kane is Hillary Clinton's running mate in 2016 or not I wouldn't really blame you he was reelected to a second term in 2018 by 16 points Virginia is therefore safe Democrat here up in Ohio incumbent Democrat shod Brown is seeing taking a fourth term against Republican car dealer Bernie Moreno Brown like tester over in Montana has managed to remain in office in this now strongly Republican leaning State due to his broad appeal across the political Spectrum back in 2018 he won re-election by eight points even as the competitive governor election went to the Republican Mike dwine by four points that being said 2018 was a democratic wavee without the presidential race on the ballot and so again just like over in Montana 20244 is a whole new test for these popular Democratic incumbents Donald Trump carried Ohio by eight points in both 2016 and 2020 and again it's becoming rarer and rarer to see candidates of different parties win a States presidential and Senate races in fact it's only happened once since 2012 and in the 2020 general election cycle just three of 33 Senate candidates managed to outperform their party's presidential candidate by more than 10 points there's a good chance that brown will have to do that this fall though he does get the benefit of facing Marino who is widely viewed as Republicans least electable candidate in the primary in the latest poll via activote actually has brown up five points with 52.5% to Mareno 47.5% 400 likely voters were included in this survey in Ohio and the margin here Brown plus 5 means that we'll place it down in the lean Democrat category this would be a crucial hold for Democrats if it holds up though again it may not matter if tester cannot manage to claw his way back into the race over in Montana moving on though up and over in Wisconsin Democrat Tammy Baldwin is running for a third term after she was reelected by 11 points in 2018 now Wisconsin is of course a highly competitive State at the presidential level having been decided by less than a point in both 2016 and 2020 and here in 2024 Democrats have consistently performed better in the polls here in Wisconsin than in most other key swing States currently KLA Harris leads Donald Trump by 3.3% right now in the presidential average though it's important to note that we have seen some pretty egregious polling errors underestimating Trump in Wisconsin in years past back at the Senate level though Baldwin will be expected to run a couple of points ahead of the top of the tickets as a reasonably popular incumbent and the latest survey by BSG slgs strategy group so a Republican and a democratic polling firm does provide evidence for that theory Baldwin leads likely Republican nominee Eric CI by seven points here with 48% to 41% among 404 likely voters surveyed between July 26 in August 2nd but when looking at the presidential version of this poll Harris leads Trump by only three points I do think it's reasonable to make the assertion that even if Harris does lose Wisconsin by a point or two Baldwin should still squeak by so she definitely has a strong safety net it's going to be likely Democrat here coming off that seven-point lead in the latest poll just of the East now is Michigan where incumbent Democrat Debbie stabenau is retiring leaving Democrats more vulnerable than they would have been had staban now run for a fifth term in office this will be the first open race for this seat since 1994 which does happen to also be the only time since 1972 that Republicans won a senate race in Michigan along with Wisconsin in Pennsylvania it is part of the core Rust Belt Trio that could decide the 2024 presidential race decision desk hq's latest polling average is Harris leading Trump by less than two points 1.9% based on 15 polls of course as is the case everywhere else the senate race question becomes how Democratic nominee Alysa slotkin will perform compared to Harris against Republican nominee Mike Rogers a former Congressman himself both candidates are strong recruits for their respective parties and the most recent Senate poll conducted by Sienna College and the New York Times again here between August 5th and 9th is slotkin leading by just one point among 619 registered voters slotkin is at 42% Rogers 41% again comparing this to the presidential question with the same sample Trump leads Harris by three points so another Democratic Senate over performance there we're going to place Michigan Senate race as tilting Democrat now penultimately in Pennsylvania incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey Jr is an electoral Powerhouse here in the Keystone States and that might be understating it he has won six straight Statewide elections by at least nine points in one of the most competitive states of the 21st century of course needless to say Pennsylvania is an extremely competitive race at the presidential level though Democrats have to feel pretty confident in Casey's ability to hold the senate seat given his strength as a candidate alone the latest survey here by Emerson College another Flagship holster is Casey leading by Five Points among a thousand likely voters surveyed between August 13th and 14th Casey 48.1% David McCormick 43.5% you may remember McCormick from the 2022 cycle when he came just a couple of hundred voters shy of winning the Republican nomination against Dr Oz who of course went on to lose to Democrat John fedman by five points and a massive underperformance relative to polling expectations so you could say that this is McCormack's chance to prove himself here as the more electable candidate nevertheless Pennsylvania will lean Democrat based on that fivepoint latest poll lead finally up in Maine incumbent independent Senator Angus King is seeking reelection to a third term he does caucus with Democrats in the Senate Like Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Kiron Cinema over in Arizona though he does technically run as an independent latest poll from the University of New Hampshire has him leading his Republican opponent Demi kazunas by 10 points among 936 likely voters surveyed between August 15th and 19th King does consistently rank among the most popular senators in the country and should ultimately have little problem retaining the seat as a quasi Democrat hold so that does it for this edition of the 2024 US Senate map based on the most recent surveys taken in competitive Battlegrounds Republicans are projected to flip flip the majority with 51 seats over Democrats 49 now in case you're curious though as to see how these latest polls compared to current betting odds bet online has the latest numbers for each of the competitive races you can see here starting in Michigan Alyssa slotkin is favored over Mike Rogers at minus 400 which of course makes sense when you consider that she does lead Rogers by more than six points in the overall average via ddhq and then moving down to Ohio and Pennsylvania here no surprise Bob Casey is favored at700 whereas Brown despite leading in pretty much every poll is only favored at minus 150 now personally I have been a very strong proponent that the fundamentals are just working a little too hard against Brown for him to win this race and it seemed like for a while the odds agreed but it is interesting as we get closer to election day and more polls show Brown leading the betting public does seem to be shifting back to the incumbents you of course can check out the rest of these latest odds via the link in the description or pinned comment section down below I often find they provide an interesting fundamental counter so to speak to polling data alone feel free to let me know your thoughts on this map the state of play in 2024 or anything else you want to leave as a comment in the comment section below also make sure to let me know down there what other 2024 related videos you would like to see in the future shout out to 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