My 2024 ELECTION NIGHT Presidential Map Prediction by Poll Closing

we are 2 months out from the 2024 presidential election on November 5th and today I'll be updating my electoral map prediction by poll closing time to give you a sense of how the night will unfold starting at 6:00 p.m. eastern time the polls will close in some counties in Indiana and in Kentucky but since some precincts remain open until 700 p.m. neither State's presidential race will be called by the networks until then instead at 7:00 the polls will close in these two states plus Virginia South Carolina and Georgia a key Battleground here and then up in Vermont as well now some areas also close here in New Hampshire and in most of Florida outside the Panhandle though just like the 6:00 States they will also not be called until at least 8:00 p.m. when all the polls close now as for these Six States at 7:00 p.m. will start in Vermont The Bluest state in the nation in 2020 it is going to be safe for kamla Harris while Donald Trump should comfortably hold on to Indiana Kentucky and South Carolina we do have two more competitive races here in Virginia and Georgia now the Commonwealth of Virginia voted for Biden by a 10-point margin in the 2020 election what has looked a whole lot closer here in 2024 is you see Trump even LED Biden in the final real clear polling average before the president dropped out of the race now with Harris as as the Democratic nominee she has shifted the race back in favor of her party with a four-point lead on average between these two most recent surveys still this would be an underwhelming performance for her and the Democrats at large relative to their Newfound expectations in this recently strong Blue State it is therefore only a lean Democrat State here on the map it was likely at the start of this cycle down in Georgia 16 electoral votes one of the seven key Battlegrounds on the map it actually went to Biden by 0.2% in 2020 that was the narrowest margin of any state in that election and the first time that Georgia had voted for a Democrat since 1992 Biden won because of extraordinary turnout among black voters in and around the city of Atlanta but now in 2024 we have seen Trump make gains among Black and Hispanic voters as well also a growing racial demographic group in Atlanta as expected though Harris has clawed back at some of those losses since becoming the nominee though either way the polls remain extremely tight in the top line Harris leads by just a tenth of a percentage Point here in the latest average though since Georgia is a more fundamentally conservative States than most of the other Battlegrounds that we'll get to here in a little bit the prediction markets do have Trump as the favorite with a 62% chance of flipping Georgia as per the latest odds via markets and I do agree that Trump is slightly favored right now as on my presidential map it will tilt Republican next up at 7:30 p.m. on Election night voting will end in Ohio West Virginia and North Carolina now West Virginia is one of the most Republican states in the nation it goes safe for Trump here he won it by 40 points in the last election Ohio on the other hand was the bellweather states in the nation as the party that won Ohio won the White House in all all but three election Cycles from 1896 to 2016 it is now a strongly Republican leading state after Trump won it by eight points in 2016 and again in 2020 he does lead by a similar margin in the latest polling average as well by nine points based on the last three polls and so back on our electoral map it is likely Republican for Trump then in North Carolina always a competitive States but Democrats have not won a federal election in North Carolina since 2008 as Republican candidates have now won eight straight races for president and for Senate each by less than six points most recently here Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just over a point now here in the polls he leads by just under a point now in the latest average with each of the last four surveys added to this average showing him leading by exactly one percentage points back on the electoral map now North Carolina joins Georgia as a Hilt State for the Trump campaign so through two poll closings Trump jumps out to an early electoral vote lead with 81 over comml Harris's 16 270 votes are needed to win the presidency before we jump to the 8:00 closing less than 20% of you guys are currently subscribed so please take a second and click that red button below the video it's completely free and it does help me out tremendously we're now going to move on to the 8:00 p.m. poll closing this is the single largest poll closing of the nights worth 172 electoral votes including the Battlegrounds of New Hampshire Pennsylvania and Florida as well as Nebraska's second congressional districts while the rest of Nebraska remains open until 9900 p.m. precincts will also close in most of Texas here at 8:00 p.m. except for El Paso all the way in the western Corner which closes at 9:00 p.m. so no call will be made until at least then in the Lone Star State on Election night let's begin by filling in the solid States for Harris she will easily carry the first congressional district in Maine and she'll continue to dominate down the Northeast Coast here in Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland and DC that's Washington DC Harris will also come out on top in Illinois each of these states voted for Biden by more than 15 points in 20120 meanwhile Donald Trump should easily hold the southern states of Oklahoma Missouri Tennessee Mississippi and Alabama now for the more competitive races at this hour starting in Florida there's a good chance the sunshine state and its 30 electoral votes will be called for Trump right as polls close at 8:00 p.m. given that it does report votes incredibly quickly and Trump is expected to win Florida by a wider margin than any presidential candidate in recent memory it was one of just five states where he improved his margin between 2016 and 2020 winning by 3.4% and now the polls here in 2024 have them up by six points right now on average no candidate on either side has managed to win Florida by more than six points since HW Bush in 1988 Trump might just do that in November is Florida leans Republican up in Pennsylvania arguably the most important state on the map it's 19 electoral votes are the most likely to tip the election either way Trump carried Pennsylvania by0 .7% in the 2016 election over Hillary Clinton and then Biden flipped it back into the Democratic column by a little over a point in 2020 prior to 2016 it had back Democrats in six straight presidential Cycles now polling does suggest we're headed for another extremely close race in fact the latest average shows them tied at 47.2% each meanwhile the betting Market have Trump as an Ever So slight favorite with a 56% chance of winning and I'm inclined to agree with this is polls have notoriously underestimated Trump in the Rust Belt region in both of the previous two cycles and Harris as a candidate is demonstrably weaker electorally speaking up here in this region compared to the sunbuilt states she will simply struggle to match the appeal that Biden had to older white workingclass voters in the 2020 cycle and that is a key demographic not only in Pennsylvania but also in Michigan and Wisconsin which we'll get to here in a bit New Hampshire and Maine up here in the Northeast on the other hand are much more friendly to democratic candidates they tend to fall in line with the rest of this region though do tend to be more competitive New Hampshire voted for Biden by seven points in the 2020 election and he won Maine by a ninepoint margin now the polls show Biden up by an average of Five Points in New Hampshire and by an even stronger margin in Maine it would take an extremely favorable environment for Trump to flip either of the States come November the kind of environment we may have been headed towards before Biden dropped out but now with Harris they lean her way that leaves us with the competitive second districts in Maine and in Nebraska now main O2 is ultra rural here encompassing the northern area of the states and one of the oldest and whitest congressional districts demographically speaking in the entire country it did vote for Trump by seven points in the 2020 election and should again back him by a pretty comfortable margin it is likely Republican on the other hand Nebraska O2 is effectively the opposite it's almost entirely Urban and much more racially diverse encompassing the city of Omaha and it backed Biden by 6 and a half points in 2020 it will lean towards Harris on the electoral map continuing on to the next poll closing at 8:30 p.m. the polls will close in just one states that is Arkansas which is a safe Republican state as it did vote for Trump by 27 points in 2020 our next major poll closing is at 900 p.m. I call this Battleground central time is the polls close in Arizona New Mexico Texas Colorado Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin and in Michigan plus the empire state New York and a smattering of less competitive States across the middle of the country together this poll closing accounts for 162 the 538 electoral votes up for grabs on the knights let us first place down the safe Trump states in North and South Dakota Wyoming the Statewide race in Nebraska plus the first and third congressional districts Kansas and Louisiana the state of Iowa is teetering on the edge of being safe Republican it's electorally identical to Ohio in that it voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 but then shifted hard to the rights backing Trump by 8 to n points in both 2016 and in 2020 on my map I have it as a likely Republican state though is we have yet to see a single Trump versus Harris pole as for the solid blue States KLA Harris is certain to carry New York 28 electoral votes it has become a smidge more competitive in recent years but Biden still won it by 23 points in 2020 KLA should also have no problem carrying Colorado by a solid margin it is the fastest left trending state in the nation as it backed Biden by almost 14 points in the 202 cycle let's now shift our Focus back to the Midwest region here with the remaining three states in the blue wall region of Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania together these four states voted blue in every election between 1992 all the way up to 2016 when Trump flipped Michigan and Wisconsin into the Republican column and came less than two points from flipping Minnesota against Hillary Clinton as well then in 2020 Biden flipped Michigan back by 2.8% and Wisconsin by 0.6% while expanding the Democratic margin in Minnesota up to 7 points now with that in mind Minnesota is fundamentally The Bluest of the upper rust Bel quartets while Wisconsin is the most Republican the latest polling in Minnesota has Harris leading by 5 and a half points on average still an underperformance relative to Biden's 220 margin but enough for it to still lean blue on the electoral map as for Wisconsin and and Michigan both must win States for Harris in all effects and purposes it's just hard to see a path to 270 for her without them she does lead Trump by about a point and a half in Wisconsin meanwhile in Michigan Harris also leads Again by a little more than a point and has led in four of the last seven polls included in this average comparing the polls to the betting markets Harris is narrowly favored in both states with a 52% chance of carrying Michigan and a 56% chance in Wisconsin back on my electoral map while I do have Michigan as a tilt blue state for Harris I'm keeping Wisconsin in the pure toss-up category because after the polling misses that we saw here in 2016 and 2020 I'll probably need to see Harris leading by at least four maybe even five points to be confident in her chances once all of the votes are counted shifting down to the Southwest Texas is likely to vote for Trump in November an emerging Battleground Joe Biden did receive 46.5% of the votes in 2020 that is more than any other Democrats since Jimmy Carter last carried Texas in 1976 but with Republicans making significant gains among Hispanic voters especially here in the Rio Grand Valley it's hard to see Democrats improving on their 2020 margin at this point on a related note New Mexico is the most Hispanic state in the nation and therefore perhaps a sleeper swing state in future Cy Les for now it remains as a likely Blue State though after Biden's 11o margin of victory in 2020 and the fact that we have only seen one poll so far and it has Harris up by 10 finally wrapping up the 9:00 closings in Arizona the second closest state in 2020 by margin Biden won it by 0.3% with 49.4% to 49.1% like in Georgia he's both the first Democrat to carry Arizona since Bill Clinton and his win is attributed to the rapid growth and diversification of its lone major city Phoenix now here in 2024 we saw Trump dominate Biden in the polls before he dropped out and he continues to lead Harris right now by exactly a point in the latest average he's LED in five of the last eight polls here most falling within the margin of error of course interestingly though looking over at the odds via poly Market again he has a 63% chance of winning that's better than in Georgia and even with North Carolina CH back on my electoral map I also have it as a tilt Trump States adding 11 electoral votes to Trump's growing tally as he is now just six votes shy of 270 with 264 ahead of Harris's 163 now at 1000 p.m. the polls close in just three states Montana Nevada and Utah Trump is almost certain to win in Montana and in Utah while Nevada is our last remaining Battleground with six electoral votes it doesn't hold the same electoral oral weight as the others but it might be the closest race at this moment Biden won it by 2.4% in 2020 an identical margin to Hillary Clinton in 2016 even though the nation became Bluer between those elections Republicans also managed to flip the governor's office in 2022 and received more votes for us house than democrats for the first time in decades now in 2024 no other state shifted harder to the right in the polls is Trump led by by 5 A2 points prior to the president's withdrawal an incredible 9-point swing in less than 4 years again though with Harris now headlining the Democratic ticket it has shifted back to Democrats as she leads by about half a points in the latest average of seven polls that being said on poly Market it's still Trump with the slight Edge as he is favored with 54% odds as for my own rating I still have Nevada as a pure tossup same deal is up in Wisconsin Now 1 hour later at 11:00 p.m. Eastern 8:00 p.m. Pacific time the polls close in Idaho Washington Oregon and California Trump is going to win the state of Idaho while K Harris will sweep the west coast states keeping them in the Democratic column for a ninth consecutive cycle that includes her home state of California with the largest electoral prize on the map 54 electoral votes Now All That Remains are the non-contiguous states of Alaska and Hawaii both both States will see their polls close at midnight Eastern and Alaska unsurprisingly is safe for former president Trump while Hawaii is safe for vice president Harris and so that means that the final Electoral College projection has Trump at 281 leading Harris at 241 now if I had to guess which way these toss-ups go I would probably say that Trump has an Ever So slight Edge in both States right now though again they are truly coin flips at this point that does it for this presidential election map prediction and Analysis let me know whether you agree or disagree with these ratings in the comments below big shout out to my channel members on screen here thank you so much for your support if you would like to become a member go ahead and click the join button below this video to receive exclusive perks you can check out more content from my channel here and as always thank you so much for watching I'll see you next time EP outs