Michigan vs. Fresno State Game Preview and Prediction - College Football Week 1

Michigan football gets their season underway at home against the Fresno State Bulldogs Fresno State kind of on paper if you don't know anything about this Fresno State football team I think people would assume this is a cupcake opponent wouldn't assume that given what Fresno State did last season this was a team that was ranked during last season this was a team that returns a superstar at quarterback uh this is a team in general that I think has proven they have a lot to account for on offense and if they can score successfully they can beat anybody the problem for this game is it's easier said than done to score against a Michigan defense that really truly may be the best defense in college football even with Jim Harbaugh departing it's a game between two brand new head coaches Tim Skipper is less new than Chiron Moore although I guess both have head coaching experience given situations they've had to step in for their previous head coaches but uh skipper had extended time while while Tedford for Fresno was taking uh Health leave of absences Jim Harbaugh wasn't taking leave of absences by choice he was taking mandated absences but uh he has now chosen to step away from Michigan football as a slew of uh penalties seem to be being levied by the NCAA to the Michigan football program is quite an era of transition for Chiron Moore and the defending national champions we think we know who the quarterback is we think it's Alex orgy but even that hasn't been publicly announced by Michigan football a couple days before this game yet so I don't know you could tell me anything could happen in this game and I would pretty much believe it what do you think is GNA happen in this game c well one thing can we give credit for uh there actually it actually was a self-imposed um suspension last year for Jim Harbaugh it wasn't forced upon him he he he left on his own accord uh to honor that he was taking responsibility for his actions but yeah this is this is one of those situations where like it comes down to this question like is this a new is this like a new era for Michigan or is this just basically like a next guy up like mentality because like they were such a good football team last year obviously national champions uh go undefeated all this happens they got all this Talent everywhere right um are the guys that were behind the guys last year just as good or is this going to be like a more so of a there's a roster turnover and this is a new era of Michigan football given the players that are going to be playing and also just like the coaching staff like shiron Moore is coming into his first season obviously he has experience with the program but like this is to me gonna be a whole new look for Michigan football and like a whole new era and that could go one or two ways it could go really well or there's a world where it just doesn't go as well now I don't think it it the world where it doesn't go as well is that this team is bad by any stretch of the means but I don't know if it's just going to be a team that is been as good as they've been the past couple years yeah I agree with you here um the biggest question to me obviously is is quarterback for Michigan right like the the whole offseason discussion was we think it's Alex orgy and then they did the spring game and some practice stuff and Alex orgy wasn't separating so then it was like okay we're actually giving five quarterbacks qb1 RS that's never a good thing when you get to camp and that's still happening uh in the end we're recording this on Monday morning so maybe this news will be announced before you even see this video but as of Monday morning there are reports from pretty unnamed sources that orgy will be named the starter nobody serious has reported that Alex orgy has been named the starter yet so I I think it's still one of those things like they clearly haven't crowned a guy here and it wouldn't surprise me if early in this game if orgy comes in and struggles if we see different looks at quarterback from Michigan to give a couple guys a chance now saying that out loud to me should terrify Michigan fans because Fresno State is not an opponent you want to dick around with cart like this is a team with big playability Mikey Keane he transferred in from UCF but he was like one of the better quarterbacks in the country last season like he he can throw for 500 100 yards in a game he can throw for five touchdowns he will be the best quarterback in this game like no no matter who is at quarterback if it's Alex orgie Mikey Keane will be the best quarterback in this game oh oh I'm sorry where was Mikey Keane ranked on the Athletics freak list I don't know Alex or was 13th I understand that but I like this is one of those ones where I said it all offseason Michigan will probably wish they just went to the portal for a quarterback like this would have been a great guy can we do the thing where if you win this game you get to steal the player for the rest of the season that'd be really nice for Michigan and for Mikey Keane if they could make a little swap here but um no just like results wise with Fresno last year and it's not the same team it's the portal era so everybody comes in and out I get it but they return a lot of key pieces from this group like they to me they are going to look more like the Personnel they had last year than a lot of teams in college football will this year especially offensively especially offensively they opened the season on the road at Purdue and beat them they went to Purdue and won 3935 um they blanked Arizona State they went at Arizona State and beat them 29 to nothing so this is a football team who can beat High major opponents that has a star at quarterback and some skilled stuff around them now the wheels did fall off later in the season uh we saw a three- game stretch at the end of Mountain West play they lost 42 to8 to San Jose State 25- 17 to New Mexico 33-8 against San Diego State bottom line is this if this team's not scoring points they can't win the game straight up like they they have to score this game has to hit the over if Fresno State is going to find a way to win this game uh here's a number I pulled Fresno State cart has won 17 consecutive games as a program when they have scored 27 points in a football game they get to 27 they win the game I don't know if that's going to happen here but that's a key number like to me they get 227 they will have a chance to win this football game I just don't know if they will against this yeah what's the most points that Michigan gave up last year let's dig that up one second here why you dig that up the one thing about all the questions that are on kind of the offensive side with the quarterback there's less questions on the opposite side of the ball like they got all Americans maybe the best player in college football some might argue and will Johnson Mason Graham's back Kenneth Grant's back those guys are gonna be able to pressure Kean and that might throw off what they're doing then having will Johnson and other guys on the outside to you know defensively it's going I I I think presal State's going to struggle with that defense and for all the questions that they might have at wide receiver and quarterback there might not be a a question on what style Michigan's GNA do like we saw a game last year where shiron Moore ran the ball like what 32 straight plays or something like that against Penn State like he he he has shown the ability to be like okay I'm just going to hand it off a million times now will that work they're replacing their line I don't know Donovan Edwards a lot of people believe in him he I don't think he's Blake corm so like you you got to see what that looks like colon lovelin is probably the one non-question I think he's going to be dynamic but someone's got to get him the ball uh so I I don't know in a game where the spread is large like it is and Fresno State is not a rollover like it is if this is going to be like an adjustment period game Fresno State could find themselves in this game for sure totally agree uh here's the numbers on Michigan's defense last season the most points they gave up in a game was 24 points they gave up 24 points twice once to Maryland once to Ohio State they only gave up 20 points one other time that season they gave up 20 to Alabama and the rose bow outside of that 15 13 131 7777 630 0 so last season Michigan held teams to seven points or less in half of their football games card like this and this team does return so many keep pieces from the defense it's easy for us to sit here and be like Fresno State has some Stars they got a great quarterback that doesn't matter even even if you do against this Michigan defense if they play well I don't think anything's going to happen here uh is there a level of like like mentally emotionally where do you expect this Michigan football team to be without Jim Harbaugh because I you could sell me on two paths here path number one Harbaugh was the key to everything you pull him out of it it's it's just going to be a lot of guys looking around around like they don't know what their identity is you could also sell me on yeah Harbaugh was the center point of all the weirdness but also these are some great football players who are going to come out really pissed off to show the world that it's not just Jim Harbaugh it's not the cheating scandal it's like we're actually here now and penalties are coming but we're still them same dudes like you could sell me on either of those paths being true which side do you lean more to as the likely outcome ah the thing is I don't know if I can put my way myself one side or the other on this because I I do think that a lot of the credit actually should have gone to Coach Harbaugh and what he did and the strings that he pulled and kind of like how he built that like he ended up getting the Pinnacle where he had like all these players in place this offensive line in place the running back quarterback he had everything he needed to kind of get to where he wanted to go and the scary part about this year with Michigan and their team is that like we talk about the defense and what they could do you imagine the frustrations that are going to be going on at this teams like in dog fights because their defense is just on the field all the time having to get stops and they're in like 10 seven dog fights where they're like if the offense could give us anything right now we're winning this game like God forbid they turn into Iowa I don't think it's gonna get that nasty but like that style of football yeah yeah maybe maybe I don't know I don't I feel like I got a non-answer from you on my my pitch there which is good that means you're you're ducking questions like a vet right now I don't have I don't have an answer for you yet that's nice okay uh all right so looking at the line for this game Michigan 21 and a half Point favorites over under 45 and a half I always talk about with football key numbers 21 and a half to me is a key number because that's three full touchdowns if you were backing a team to lose by three touchdowns Fresno State can do that and still cover this game uh I would like it a lot more from a Michigan perspective if it was 20 and a half instead of 21 and a half now you could buy it down if you want but what is uh your read on the spread with this game over under 45 and a half 21 and a half I do want to warn you I have a Best Bet coming here I think the under might be the best bet of the first weekend I love you so much I love you I think it might like the defense isn't going to let Fresno State get off Michigan maybe doing the whole quarterback backy backy switchy thing who knows who's going to be able to do anything maybe they stuff the Box on the run the what thing the quarter backy backy switchy switchy whatever you call it I can't decide I can't decide anything and they win this game 20-4 yeah there's a world here where uh Michigan's quarterback backy switchy switchy thing ends up going the way Michigan states did last year where where like by the end of quarter 2 Michigan Twitter is like CH ble where is it could happen here I don't know um I want to read you some numbers Michigan non-conference last year with Jim Harbaugh with JJ McCarthy with Blake Corum with some Superstars offensively Roman Wilson all them dudes East Carolina on opening night Michigan won that game 30-3 UNLV next week Michigan won that game 35-7 Bowling Green the week after that Michigan won that game 31-6 know what those three games have in common they all went under 45 and a half points 44 and a half points this is uh my best bet for this game one of my favorite bets of the week uh I'm expecting Michigan's defense to assert their will yes Mikey Keane is great he might pop off get get one to two big plays maybe a touchdown or two uh even if that happens I think that Michigan's offense could have some hiccups here they're gonna win this game in the trenches like I'm not worried about Michigan not winning this game but if they are rotating quarterbacks in an out I think there's going to be times that drive stall because Alex orgy misses throws I don't believe in his ability to throw on the run like if he has to get into a third and seven and hit a throw I'm just not confident he can do that yet um if I'm Fresno State I don't know what Skipper's goingon to do but I would probably try to be a little more conservative than my normal games here try to make this a low possession game I don't know if they will do that or not they probably won't given how they want to play but to me either way this could easily be like a 28-3 football game where you feel really really good about the under as you get into the fourth quarter yeah and even if they are successful like they're Michigan's going to do the like run the ball a bunch of times it's going to run a bunch of clock and maybe they score that way but the under is very enticing yeah it's tasty and I don't like unders I don't like totals in general so if you and I are aligned I think that's that's a very very good sign football season is here money is out there to be had in the form of winning bets and our friends at my bookie want to make it easy for you to do just that yeah and coming into football season you're going to have games all weekend happening everywhere and Gregory where is the only place that sleepers media places all bets I can tell you right now since last February February 1 exact my bookie is the only place that I have placed a sports bet I love my bookie they make it easy they get you quick payouts they have awesome promo offers in fact cart they've got one right now that football fans everywhere and listeners of this show are going to want to take advantage of yeah using promo code sleepers that's promo code sleepers you can take advantage of a 50% instant deposit bonus right now that's 50% instant 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