Steve Kornacki breaks down new Labor Day polls showing Harris ahead 3 points| hasanAbi react TODAY

oh disappointing all around all right let's continue between campaign stops and her official duties unlike Mr Trump who shared the stage with President Biden earlier this summer it'll be Harris's first debate in nearly four years and no public events are scheduled today for either Harris or Trump but this week does notably Mark the beginning of voting season believe it or not with a first absentee general election ballots getting mailed out in the key Battleground state of North Carolina this Friday Savannah always good to remember voting is about to begin Peter thank you hey thanks let's bring in our national political correspondent Steve Kaki break it down let's start with the state of the race from a national perspective as we head into this final stretch yeah here we go Savannah so this is the average of all of the polls that are out there nationally right now and you see kamla Harris the vice president with a three-point lead over Donald Trump two ways to look at this if you're a Democrat obviously you're happy you're ahead and it's an improvement from when Joe Biden was the candidate he trailed Donald Trump all year but if you're a republican you could take Silas in this this is not unfamiliar territory for Donald Trump Labor Day 2020 he trailed Joe Biden by nine he almost came back to win that Race 2016 he trailed Hillary Clinton by five on Labor Day he did come back to win so Harris has a actually a tighter National margin but as we know these elections are determined state by state and these Battleground States so let's look at a state of race there yeah let's go yeah numbers look worse when you look at the [ __ ] States when you look at state by state numbers look the best numbers look the best when you look at like the national average you still need a plus five okay for the Democrats to win over the Republican party because there are more Democrats are more registered Democrats in this country than there are registered Republicans there are more reg there are more democratic voters in this country than there are Republican party voters ultimately you still given the way that the Electoral College works you still need around a plus five okay and as you can tell right here 2016 polls were a little different obviously uh there was uh a lot of uh overcorrecting that needed to take place for polling in 2016 uh Hillary Clinton's plus five didn't actually end up uh helping her secure the victory let's go through now seven Battleground states can memorize this list at home we're going to talk about them a lot between now in November but the key here is that six of these seven states all went for Joe Biden in 2020 North Carolina that he only went for Trump and you see right now the polling is tight in just about all of them Trump ahead narrowly in Georgia North Carolina small Harris leads except take a look here like in Wisconsin Harris on average leading by six this is important to note the polling was off in States like Wisconsin in 2020 and 2016 it underestimated Trump's support whether it does that again this time around a major question that made a huge difference of course in the in the result there so let's do my favorite map the 270 love to see how this can play out when you start switching how the Battlegrounds go yeah mine too so we've got those seven states you just mentioned in Gray here the Battleground States look two perspectives here if you're Harris your most direct path is this it's they call them the Great Lake States Wisconsin if you could win that Michigan in Pennsylvania all went for Biden four years ago hold those and you see it right there Harris is at exactly 270 but here's the complication for her what if she slips up in one of these Pennsylvania she didn't pick that State's Governor as her running mate some people wonder about that if she were to lose Pennsylvania it is the largest of these Battleground States it's over if she doesn't Lo if she doesn't win Pennsylvania it's over okay like the reason why it's over is because if you lose Pennsylvan the likelihood that you will win Georgia is incredibly low like there's no pathway in my opinion where you lose Pennsylvania but then you win Georgia and if you lose Pennsylvania you most likely lost Georgia as well and in win's case it's [ __ ] over he's campaigning in Pennsylvania right yes you can see her number comes down she would then need to win at least two from this Sun Belt tier and meanwhile if Trump were to get Pennsylvania it opens up the simplest path for him get Pennsylvania hold North Carolina which he won in 2020 and then just win back Georgia which he narrowly lost and he'd be at exactly 270 all right and Steve you're not wearing khakis you're wearing great pants are you going in a new fashion direction that we need to be that's crazy that they know about the [ __ ] khaki karaki dude you think they're hassabi Watchers like do you think there's like producers in the room that know I mean I guess we're not the only community to load the Steve Steve karaki khaki yeah I'm always very conscious of my fashion decisions here you know me you know me we're on the journey with you're not the only one to bring it up yeah a lot of Libs love his khaki karakis too thank you very much the Kaki khakis check B peels are probably there all right we got a new we got a new uh Harris ad focused Harris wals 2024 not everything revolves around you LW sh