My 2024 Election Night Map Prediction (2 Months 'Till The Election)

the 2024 presidential election will be held in exactly 2 months on November 5th and today I'll be updating my electoral map prediction between kamla Harris and Donald Trump but we're going to do it a little bit differently I'm going to fill in the states based on when polls close so we're going to start off on the east coast and slowly move our way west to mimic how the states will actually fill in on Election night and so in case you didn't know voting doesn't end in each state at the same same time they end at various different hours and so we're going to begin with the states whose polls will close first at 700 p.m. eastern time so we have these Six States and I'm going to start off with Vermont which is going to be safe for kamla Harris while Donald Trump is easily going to win Indiana Kentucky and South Carolina but we do have two slightly more competitive races the first one in Virginia now this is a state that Joe Biden won by a 10 Point margin in the 2020 election but today Virginia is significantly more competitive than it was before from 2010 until 2021 not a single Republican was elected in a Statewide election in Virginia however in 2021 Glenn Yun a republican won the governorship and today Virginia has taken a significant shift to the right in fact before Joe Biden dropped out of the election he was losing in the polling average in Virginia to Donald Trump and now that that Harris has replaced the incoming president at the top of the democratic ticket she is barely doing better she leads by just three points in the two most recent polls so Virginia is going to be a tilt Democratic state it can definitely get competitive especially with major Republican victories in just the last few years moving down to Georgia The Peach State actually went to Biden in the last election this was the first time a Democrat won Georgia since 1992 is a pretty big deal but considering just how small Biden's margin victory was it won't take too much for Trump to win the state back Georgia is still fundamentally a conservative State Trump carried it by Five Points in 2016 and Brian Kemp won his reelection in the peach state by a likely margin in 2022 so Georgia on the presidential level it's going to be slightly more competitive it will be a lean GOP state for right now next up at 7:30 voting will end in Ohio West Virginia and North Carolina to get West Virginia out of the way it's one of the un states in the country Trump won it by 40 points in the last two elections he's going to carry it for a third time while in Ohio this state used to be very competitive it was a bellweather state which means that it voted with the eventual presidential election winner and that was the case for nearly 60 years until its streak was broken in 2020 when Joe Biden won the election but lost the Buckeye state by an eight-point margin today Ohio is among the most conservative in the country it reelected its Republican Governor by a 20o margin just two years ago on the presidential level it's going to be slightly more competitive Trump can win by double digit margin but Crossing 15 points is going to be difficult so Ohio is going to be likely Republican for now while down in North Carolina it's going to be competitive just like Georgia but this time Trump actually won the state in 2020 in fact only one Democrat has won the taril state since 1976 and that was Barack Obama in 2008 by the smallest margin possible KLA Harris is not going to be the second Democrat to win this state in 50 years Bing couldn't do it four years ago and honestly the incoming president was a much better candidate than the vice president is right now so North Carolina is also going to be leaned red yes it's going to be competitive but Donald Trump has a clear Edge before we continue only 16% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the descript description below we're now going to move on to the 800 p.m. poll closing this is the largest poll closing of the night the states where voting ends here are worth 21 electoral votes nearly half of the Electoral College itself we have big States like Texas Florida and Pennsylvania which is arguably the most important state on the map and so we're going to begin by filling in the solid states that we find here of course Cal Harris is going to win in the first district of Maine she'll also come out on top in Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island the District of Columbia and Maryland while Trump is going to easily clinch Oklahoma Missouri Tennessee Mississippi and Alabama many of the remaining States here though are going to be likely for either one candidate and just to clarify solid is 15 plus anything between 7 to 15 is likely 2 to 7 is lean and less than two is going to be categorized as tilt so we're going to fill in some of these likely blue States now they're still going to go to Comm Harris basically for sure she's just not going to win them by 15 points first off we have New Jersey and Delaware they're just going to be slightly more competitive Illinois will be as well while for Donald Trump he is of course going to win both Texas and Florida in 2020 both of these states were relatively competitive in fact in the polling Joe Baden LED at multiple points in the polling average in the lonar state in the end he lost it by six points but he was only supposed to lose it by one according to the polls Texas was state that was well within the margin of error Donald Trump did much better than what the polls said just like he did basically everywhere else 2020 was supposed to be a near Landslide victory for Joe Biden but in the end he barely won if he had lost Wisconsin Georgia and Arizona three states he won by less than 1% he would have lost the election entirely and so Texas it's going to go to Trump by a double digit margin this time around it will be a likely Red State winning it by 15 though is going to be difficult Republicans haven't done that since Mitt Romney in 2012 Florida the Republicans should be very happy about winning by a likely margin the state hasn't been this solid for either one party in nearly four decades you'd have to go all the way back to the bush era when Florida wasn't a lean or tilt State the sunshine state has taken a dramatic shift to the right over the last few years Ronda Sanchez was reelected by a 20o margin in 2020d and Trump actually won Florida by a larger margin against Biden than he did against against Clinton and so today Trum is on track to winning Florida for a third time in a row probably by 7 to 10 points moving up to the Northeast we have New Hampshire which is going to be tilt in favor of KLA Harris this state can get very competitive I mean just look at 2016 Donald Trump almost won it Hillary Clinton clinched the granite state by less than half a percentage point no state was more competitive except Michigan it was closer than Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and so today KL Harris leads by around 3 to 4 points on the polling in New Hampshire which honestly isn't that great Joe Biden did much better in the polling and he only won state by 7% in the very end in fact KLA Harris is wasting time right now in New Hampshire because she is afraid that she could lose it and that is very much a possibility up in Maine we have a lean Democratic State the state as a whole still favors Democrats ever so slightly KLA Harris is going to perform similarly to Clinton when she won the state by just under three points in 2016 while the second district is easily going to go to trump it is probably going to fall in that likely Republican range and the final state from the 8m poll closing is the most important state on the map Pennsylvania 19 electoral votes Democrats no longer have the advantage with Joe Biden who was actually born in Scranton Pennsylvania and that was one of the big reasons why he was able to win the state back in 2020 he carried it by onepoint margin but Trump actually did also win the Keystone State he won it in 2016 and he's on track to win it back in fact Pennsylvania is expected to be the most conservative out of all four of the upper rust Bel States and to honor map it is going to be lean in favor of the GOP before we continue we have a word from our sponsor getting your news today seems harder than ever with the mainstream media more biased than it's ever been luckily there's a website and app I use every day to stay fully informed groud news gathers stories from over 50,000 sources in one place so you can compare how different Outlets cover the same topic on the blind spot page you can find stories that are being ignored by the left or by the right let's take a look at this story for example about Tim wells's family showing support for Donald Trump we can see that this is completely being dismissed by sources on the left while only those on the right are Shining Light on this topic I especially love groud news's dedicated 2024 election page which features every single election related story you can think of and I use this page every single day to keep up with the latest information from both sides of the aisle go to ground. news/ elction time to give it a try if you sign up through my link you'll get 40% off the Vantage plan which is what I use to get unlimited access to all features I think Brown news is doing important work and I hope you'll check them out continuing on to the next poll closing time at 8:30 we have just one state and that will be Arkansas it is going to be safe for Donald Trump 30 minutes later though we have another big poll closing at 9900 p.m. basically we're filling in all the remaining states that have lagging behind States like New York Michigan and Louisiana a lot of them are going to be safe red though I'm going to fill those in very quickly first Louisiana Kansas all of Nebraska except the Second District South Dakota North Dakota and Wyoming they're all going to go to Trump by at least 15 points and honestly in these states Trump's going to win them by 2030 points and it wouldn't even be surprising at all now we're going to start off with New York in terms of the haris states at this hour 28 electoral votes from the Empire State this is a state she has to win and she is probably going to win it just not nearly by the margin that Biden carried it by four years ago New York went to the incom president by 23 points in 2020 but due to poor Democratic Leadership in the state in recent years it simply isn't as liberal as it used to of course with Eric Adams Kathy hokel Andrew CUO all very unpopular and that is why New York is likely blue today this will be the first time a Democrat doesn't win the state by at least 15 points since Michael duckus in 19 1988 we also have Colorado 10 electoral votes this is going to be the second likely State at this hour Bing carried it by nearly 14 points in the last selection Harris can probably win it by somewhere around 7 to 10 she is still definitely the favorite but Bing's margin is basically going to be cut in half this time around moving on to our lean blue States we have neighboring New Mexico five electoral votes KLA Harris is going to do a lot worse than Joe Biden here Biden carried it by 11 points Harris can probably win by five to 7 as Hispanic voters continue to shift to the right and with New Mexico being the only state in the country with a Hispanic majority electorate the Republicans are only going to be doing better and better in this state it's a state that shifted a lot to the left from 2004 until today but it's going to reverse that Trend and move in favor of the GOP in the next few decades moving up to the Midwest we have Tim wales's home state of Minnesota there's been a lot of controversy about his family not supporting him obviously Tim Walls is still a popular governor in his home state and KLA Harris did avoid Disaster by choosing him because if Joe Biden had stayed on the ticket Trump probably would have carried this state a state that no Republican has won since 1972 symbolically it would have been a huge loss for the Democratic party and even if Harris didn't choose walls and stayed in the race and replace Joe Biden it is still much more likely that Trump could have actually won Minnesota because looking at the polling average Harris is barely ahead right now she leads by 3 to Five Points when the literal governor of the state is on the ticket when Joe Biden was still running he was losing in the final polls released between him and the former president and so right now Harris does have a slight lead in Minnesota but honestly it's a state that shouldn't even be this competitive she has to win it if Minnesota is close you can basically tell at that point that this election is going to go in favor of Donald Trump the second district of Nebraska is also going to be lean blue Joe Biden won it by a seven-point margin in 201 Harris is going to win it by a lesser margin but as of right now Democrats are favored in the district we're left with three states all of them very important all of them are among the seven most competitive states on the country which include Wisconsin Michigan and Arizona but also Pennsylvania North Carolina Georgia and Nevada it's really those seven states that are going to matter the most Arizona is going to go red just like Georgia Joe Biden barely won it in 2020 it was the first time a Democrat won it in over 20 years same thing in Georgia except Arizona last one blue in 19 96 not 1992 now again Trump doesn't need to do that much to win this state back KL Harris is not very popular in Arizona and she is simply not going to win it as of right now Donald Trump is the clear favorite he's doing very well in the polls in fact Trump is doing better in the polling in Arizona than in States like Pennsylvania North Carolina and even Georgia moving up to the Midwest though Wisconsin and Michigan these are both going to be very very close I would say at this point these are the two closest states on the map and so KLA Harris is going to benefit in Wisconsin with Tim Walls being the governor of Minnesota and Wisconsin being its neighboring state and so that is why it's probably going to vote to the left of Pennsylvania even though typically Wisconsin is the most conservative out of the three blue wall States and Wisconsin is going to be tilt red and so will Michigan Michigan will get that same rating both of these states can go to Donald Trump he won them in 2016 by narrow margins he's probably going to do it again in 2024 Joe Biden when he ran under very good circumstances for Democrats the economy wasn't doing great we were in lockdown due to covid Biden barely won Wisconsin in fact Biden did worse in Wisconsin then Trump did four years prior and in Michigan yes Biden did well but as of right now it doesn't seem like Harris is going to do better in Michigan than she is in Wisconsin so both of these states are going to very narrowly go to the former president at 10 p.m. we have polls closing in four states two of them are going to be safe red obviously they're Montana in Utah while Iowa is going to be likely in favor of the former president it's voted very similar to Ohio in the last few elections I mean 2012 it goes to Obama by a close margin 2016 Trump flips it wins it by nearly double digits shift the state over 10 points to the right and then in 2020 Iowa votes for Trump Again by a very similar margin almost the exact same thing that happened in Ohio so it's going to be likely red while Nevada is also going to go slightly in favor of Donald Trump although this time this is the state Trump has never won before he lost it in 201 20 but he also lost in 2016 when he was able to win the three blue wall States as well as Arizona and Georgia he did not win Nevada Nevada went to Clinton and Biden by the exact same 2.4% margin but today Nevada is Shifting to the right Republicans have a better chance than ever at taking back a state they haven't won since 2004 and of course the state recently elected a republican governor in 2022 when it chose Joe Lombardo over the incoming Democrat Steve cisac and so the silver state is going to be Le red on our map and this will be the last lead state but it will go in favor of the former president nonetheless an hour later at 11 KLA Harris is going to be called the winner in California Washington and Oregon these two states fundamentally are not as liberal as the Golden State so it's going to be a little bit closer while Idaho is obviously going to go to Donald Trump and finally at 1:00 a.m. eastern time Alaska is going to go to the former president and Hawaii to the vice president and so this will give Donald Trump 312 electoral votes to KLA Harris's 226 2 months to go until the election in November and right now I have the former president winning by a larger margin than he won by eight years ago Trump is the favorite but we'll see what happens in the coming months thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below